Consideration of future consequences and alcohol use among Northern Irish adolescents

This study investigated the relationship between consideration of future consequences and alcohol use among adolescents. A cross-sectional design was used and a large sample of 12-to 16-year-old schoolchildren (n = 806) in Northern Ireland were recruited for this study. Alcohol use was assessed using a composite measure of drinking behaviour, the Adolescent Alcohol Involvement Scale. Time perspective was measured using the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale (CFCS). Data were also gathered on self-esteem, three domains of self-efficacy and aggression, all of which have been found to be related to both drinking behaviour and time perspective. Factor analysis of the CFCS revealed support for a two-factor solution, with CFC-I representing present orientation and CFC-F representing future orientation. After controlling for year in school (proxy for age) and gender and for clustering at school level, scores on both subscales were significantly associated with alcohol use. Only CFC-F score remained significant with the addition of psychosocial variables. These results support recent findings of a significant relationship between CFCS score and alcohol use in UK adolescents and University undergraduates, and suggest that in more fully controlled analyses, future orientation, rather than present, is related to adolescent drinking. Results are discussed in relation to health promotion. © 2013 Informa UK Ltd.

Further evidence for a bifactor solution for the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale: Measurement and conceptual implications

The Consideration of Future Consequences construct has been found to relate meaningfully to several positive outcomes in temporal research. Researchers have proposed 1-factor, 2-factor, and bifactor solutions to the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale (CFCS). Using 313 British University undergraduates, we tested four competing models: (a) a 12-item unidimensional model, (b) a model fitted for two uncorrelated factors (CFC-Immediate and CFC-Future), (c) a model fitted for two correlated factors (CFC-I and CFC-F), and (d) a bifactor model. Results supported the bifactor model, suggesting that the two hypothesized factors are better understood as grouping factors. Accordingly, the present study supports the CFCS as a unidimensional global future orientation measure. These results have important implications for the study of future orientation using the CFCS. Researchers using the CFCS are encouraged to examine a bifactor solution for the scores.

Does consideration of future consequences moderate the relationship between aggression and alcohol use in adolescents? Results from the United Kingdom

Background: An increasing body of literature suggests that those who give greater consideration to the future consequences (CFC) of their present behaviours are at a reduced risk of negative health outcomes. The present study examined whether CFC moderated the relationship between four domains of aggression and alcohol use in adolescents in the United Kindgom. Methods: Participants were 1058 adolescents from Northern Ireland. Participants completed questionnaires assessing: Anger; Hostility; Verbal Aggression; Physical Aggression; Consideration of Future Consequences; and alcohol use. Results: In line with extant research males scored significantly higher than females on measures of verbal and physical aggression, with no significant gender differences observed for other dependent measures. Results also revealed that CFC moderated the relationship between aggression and alcohol use, but only for females. Conclusions: These findings add to the increasing body of literature examining the temporal-health relationship. However more work is needed to help untangle the gender-specific effects.

An evaluation of portion size estimation aids precision, ease of use and likelihood of future use

OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to evaluate the precision, ease of use and likelihood of future use of portion size estimation aids (PSEA).

DESIGN: A range of PSEA were used to estimate the serving sizes of a range of commonly eaten foods and rated for ease of use and likelihood of future usage.

SETTING: For each food, participants selected their preferred PSEA from a range of options including: quantities and measures; reference objects; measuring; and indicators on food packets. These PSEA were used to serve out various foods (e.g. liquid, amorphous, and composite dishes). Ease of use and likelihood of future use were noted. The foods were weighed to determine the precision of each PSEA.

SUBJECTS: Males and females aged 18-64 years (n 120).

RESULTS: The quantities and measures were the most precise PSEA (lowest range of weights for estimated portion sizes). However, participants preferred household measures (e.g. 200 ml disposable cup) - deemed easy to use (median rating of 5), likely to use again in future (all scored either 4 or 5 on a scale from 1='not very likely' to 5='very likely to use again') and precise (narrow range of weights for estimated portion sizes). The majority indicated they would most likely use the PSEA preparing a meal (94 %), particularly dinner (86 %) in the home (89 %; all P<0·001) for amorphous grain foods.

CONCLUSIONS: Household measures may be precise, easy to use and acceptable aids for estimating the appropriate portion size of amorphous grain foods.

Evidence for the reliability and validity, but not the practical utility of the two-factor Consideration of Future Consequences Scale-14

Researchers have proposed 1-factor, 2-factor, and bifactor solutions to the 12-item Consideration of Future Consequences Scale (CFCS-12). In order to overcome some measurement problems and to create a robust and conceptually useful two-factor scale the CFCS-12 was recently modified to include two new items and to become the CFCS-14. Using a University sample, we tested four competing models for the CFCS-14: (a) a 12-item unidimensional model, (b) a model fitted for two uncorrelated factors (CFC-Immediate and CFC-Future), (c) a model fitted for two correlated factors (CFC-I and CFC-F), and (d) a bifactor model. Results suggested that the addition of the two new items has strengthened the viability of a two factor solution of the CFCS-14. Results of linear regression models suggest that the CFC-F factor is redundant. Further studies using alcohol and mental health indicators are required to test this redundancy.

Analysis, modeling, design and optimization of future communications systems: from theory to practice

Esta tese descreve uma framework de trabalho assente no paradigma multi-camada para analisar, modelar, projectar e optimizar sistemas de comunicação. Nela se explora uma nova perspectiva acerca da camada física que nasce das relações entre a teoria de informação, estimação, métodos probabilísticos, teoria da comunicação e codificação. Esta framework conduz a métodos de projecto para a próxima geração de sistemas de comunicação de alto débito. Além disso, a tese explora várias técnicas de camada de acesso com base na relação entre atraso e débito para o projeto de redes sem fio tolerantes a atrasos. Alguns resultados fundamentais sobre a interação entre a teoria da informação e teoria da estimação conduzem a propostas de um paradigma alternativo para a análise, projecto e optimização de sistemas de comunicação. Com base em estudos sobre a relação entre a informação recíproca e MMSE, a abordagem descrita na tese permite ultrapassar, de forma inovadora, as dificuldades inerentes à optimização das taxas de transmissão de informação confiáveis em sistemas de comunicação, e permite a exploração da atribuição óptima de potência e estruturas óptimas de pre-codificação para diferentes modelos de canal: com fios, sem fios e ópticos. A tese aborda também o problema do atraso, numa tentativa de responder a questões levantadas pela enorme procura de débitos elevados em sistemas de comunicação. Isso é feito através da proposta de novos modelos para sistemas com codificação de rede (network coding) em camadas acima da sua camada física. Em particular, aborda-se a utilização de sistemas de codificação em rede para canais que variam no tempo e são sensíveis a atrasos. Isso foi demonstrado através da proposta de um novo modelo e esquema adaptativo, cujos algoritmos foram aplicados a sistemas sem fios com desvanecimento (fading) complexo, de que são exemplos os sistemas de comunicação via satélite. A tese aborda ainda o uso de sistemas de codificação de rede em cenários de transferência (handover) exigentes. Isso é feito através da proposta de novos modelos de transmissão WiFi IEEE 801.11 MAC, que são comparados com codificação de rede, e que se demonstram possibilitar transferência sem descontinuidades. Pode assim dizer-se que esta tese, através de trabalho de análise e de propostas suportadas por simulações, defende que na concepção de sistemas de comunicação se devem considerar estratégias de transmissão e codificação que sejam não só próximas da capacidade dos canais, mas também tolerantes a atrasos, e que tais estratégias têm de ser concebidas tendo em vista características do canal e a camada física.

Distributed energy resources management with cyber-physical SCADA in the context of future smart grids

In the energy management of a small power system, the scheduling of the generation units is a crucial problem for which adequate methodologies can maximize the performance of the energy supply. This paper proposes an innovative methodology for distributed energy resources management. The optimal operation of distributed generation, demand response and storage resources is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming model (MILP) and solved by a deterministic optimization technique CPLEX-based implemented in General Algebraic Modeling Systems (GAMS). The paper deals with a vision for the grids of the future, focusing on conceptual and operational aspects of electrical grids characterized by an intensive penetration of DG, in the scope of competitive environments and using artificial intelligence methodologies to attain the envisaged goals. These concepts are implemented in a computational framework which includes both grid and market simulation.

Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

The use of future-oriented knowledge in regional innovation processes: Research on knowledge generation, transfer and conversion

The importance of the regional level in research has risen in the last few decades and a vast literature in the fields of, for instance, evolutionary and institutional economics, network theories, innovations and learning systems, as well as sociology, has focused on regional level questions. Recently the policy makers and regional actors have also began to pay increasing attention to the knowledge economy and its needs, in general, and the connectivity and support structures of regional clusters in particular. Nowadays knowledge is generally considered as the most important source of competitive advantage, but even the most specialised forms of knowledge are becoming a short-lived resource for example due to the accelerating pace of technological change. This emphasizes the need of foresight activities in national, regional and organizational levels and the integration of foresight and innovation activities. In regional setting this development sets great challenges especially in those regions having no university and thus usually very limited resources for research activities. Also the research problem of this dissertation is related to the need to better incorporate the information produced by foresight process to facilitate and to be used in regional practice-based innovation processes. This dissertation is a constructive case study the case being Lahti region and a network facilitating innovation policy adopted in that region. Dissertation consists of a summary and five articles and during the research process a construct or a conceptual model for solving this real life problem has been developed. It is also being implemented as part of the network facilitating innovation policy in the Lahti region.