A model for the evolution of pathogen-induced leaf shedding

A size-structured plant population model is developed to study the evolution of pathogen-induced leaf shedding under various environmental conditions. The evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) of the leaf shedding rate is determined for two scenarios: i) a constant leaf shedding strategy and ii) an infection load driven leaf shedding strategy. The model predicts that ESS leaf shedding rates increase with nutrient availability. No effect of plant density on the ESS leaf shedding rate is found even though disease severity increases with plant density. When auto-infection, that is increased infection due to spores produced on the plant itself, plays a key role in further disease increase on the plant, shedding leaves removes disease that would otherwise contribute to disease increase on the plant itself. Consequently leaf shedding responses to infections may evolve. When external infection, that is infection due to immigrant spores, is the key determinant, shedding a leaf does not reduce the force of infection on the leaf shedding plant. In this case leaf shedding will not evolve. Under a low external disease pressure adopting an infection driven leaf shedding strategy is more efficient than adopting a constant leaf shedding strategy, since a plant adopting an infection driven leaf shedding strategy does not shed any leaves in the absence of infection, even when leaf shedding rates are high. A plant adopting a constant leaf shedding rate sheds the same amount of leaves regardless of the presence of infection. Based on the results we develop two hypotheses that can be tested if the appropriate plant material is available.

A three-regime model of speculative behaviour: modelling the evolution of the S&P 500 composite index

We examine whether a three-regime model that allows for dormant, explosive and collapsing speculative behaviour can explain the dynamics of the S&P 500. We extend existing models of speculative behaviour by including a third regime that allows a bubble to grow at a steady rate, and propose abnormal volume as an indicator of the probable time of bubble collapse. We also examine the financial usefulness of the three-regime model by studying a trading rule formed using inferences from it, whose use leads to higher Sharpe ratios and end of period wealth than from employing existing models or a buy-and-hold strategy.

A framework for English? Or a vehicle for literacy? English teaching in England in the age of the Strategy

This article considers the evolution and impact on schools in England of the "Framework for English" since its introduction in 2001, a national initiative that follows on from the National Literacy Strategy, which focused on primary schools. Whilst acknowledging that the Framework is part of a whole school policy, "The Key Stage Three Strategy", I concentrate on its direct impact on the school subject "English" and on standards within that subject. Such a discussion must incorporate some consideration of the rise of "Literacy" as a dominant term and theme in England (and globally) and its challenge to a politically controversial and much contested curriculum area, i.e. "English". If the Framework is considered within the context of the Literacy drive since the mid-1990s then it can be see to be evolving within a much changed policy context and therefore likely to change substantially in the next few years. In a global context England has been regarded for some time as at the extreme edge of standards-driven policy and practice. It is hoped that the story of "English" in England may be salutary to educators from other countries.

On the Nusselt number for frazil ice growth—a correction to ”Frazil evolution in channels“ by Lars Hammar and Hung-Tao Shen

The growth (melt) rate of frazil ice is governed by heat transfer away from (towards) the ice crystal, which can be represented by the Nusselt number. We discuss choices for the Nusselt number and turbulent length scale appropriate for frazil ice and note an inaccuracy in the study ”Frazil evolution in channels“ by Lars Hammar and Hung-Tao Shen, which has also led to potentially significant errors in several other papers. We correct this error and suggest an appropriate strategy for determining the Nusselt number applicable to frazil ice growth and melting.

Heuristic based evolution for the coordination of autonomous vehicles in the absence of speed lanes

The current state of the art in the planning and coordination of autonomous vehicles is based upon the presence of speed lanes. In a traffic scenario where there is a large diversity between vehicles the removal of speed lanes can generate a significantly higher traffic bandwidth. Vehicle navigation in such unorganized traffic is considered. An evolutionary based trajectory planning technique has the advantages of making driving efficient and safe, however it also has to surpass the hurdle of computational cost. In this paper, we propose a real time genetic algorithm with Bezier curves for trajectory planning. The main contribution is the integration of vehicle following and overtaking behaviour for general traffic as heuristics for the coordination between vehicles. The resultant coordination strategy is fast and near-optimal. As the vehicles move, uncertainties may arise which are constantly adapted to, and may even lead to either the cancellation of an overtaking procedure or the initiation of one. Higher level planning is performed by Dijkstra's algorithm which indicates the route to be followed by the vehicle in a road network. Re-planning is carried out when a road blockage or obstacle is detected. Experimental results confirm the success of the algorithm subject to optimal high and low-level planning, re-planning and overtaking.

The evolution and heterogeneity of outward foreign direct investment from Latin America

The PhD dissertation investigates the rise of emerging country multinationals (EMNEs), a phenomenon that has opened up a series of research themes and debates. The main debate in this field is the extent to which the theories/frameworks on foreign direct investment (FDI), which have been developed from investigations on multinationals from developed countries, is relevant in explaining outward FDI from EMNEs. This debate is sparked by research suggesting that EMNEs supposedly do not hold the characteristics that are seen as a prerequisite to engaging in FDI. The underlying theme in this PhD is that the field should move away from a one size fit all categorisation of EMNEs, and explore the heterogeneity within EMNEs. Collecting data through various databases, archival articles and annual reports, there was an examination of the internationalisation process of 136 Latin American Multinationals (LAMNEs). The research explores the differences in internationalisation trajectories and global strategies and classifies firms into one of four categories. The four categories that LAMNEs fall into are: Natural-Resource Vertical Integrator, which are firms that are in resource seeking sectors; Accelerated Global, which depict firms that have become global over a very short period of time; Traditional Global, which are EMNEs that have internationalised at the same pace as developed country MNEs and Local Optimisers that only acquire or internationalise to developing countries. The analysis also looks at which decade LAMNEs engaged in FDI, to see if LAMNEs that internationalised during the 1970s and 1980s, during a time when Latin America had a closed economy, was different to LAMNEs that internationalised during the Washington consensus era of the 1990s or to firms that have only just internationalised within the last decade. The findings show that LAMNEs that internationalised before 1990 were more likely to adopt Local Optimiser strategies. However, more LAMNEs that started to internationalise during the 1990s started to adopt Traditional Global strategies, although Local Optimisers were the most prominent strategy. From 2002, there was more prominence of Accelerated Global strategies and a lot more heterogeneity among LAMNEs. Natural-Resource Vertical Integrator LAMNEs, tended to start to internationalisation process during the 1970s/1980s. Despite the rise of EMNEs, and by extension LAMNEs opting to use cross border merger and acquisitions (M&A), there is little research on whether this entry mode has been successful. Contrary to the argument that EMNEs are “internationalising successfully” through this strategy, the findings show that these firms are highly geared and are running less efficiently against their Western competitors. In comparison, LAMNEs internationalising through a more gradual approach, are outperforming their Western competitors on efficiency and are not highly geared- i.e. do not hold a lot of debt. The conclusion of the thesis is the emphasis of moving away from evaluating firms from their country or region of origin, but rather through the global strategy they are using. This will give a more a robust firm level of analysis, and help develop the understanding of EMNEs and international business theory.

Color polymorphism in Leptodactylus fuscus (Anura, Leptodactylidae): A defensive strategy against predators?

Color patterns are strongly related to defensive strategies in anurans. Some anurans present more than one morphotype. Leptodactylus fuscus, for example, present two morphotypes (with and without vertebral white line). The proportion of each pattern in nature is different, whereby there are always more individuals without stripes. Therefore, we speculated if this difference in the observed color pattern is due to unequal predation pressures (i.e. stronger over the striped morphotype), and/or if there is a genetic component related to autossomic heritage. To test the selective predation over the morphotypes, we prepared plasticine models of L. fuscus with both phenotypes and placed them in the field. We did not find evidence of predation selection and as we found significant relationships between the proportions of the phenotypes and Mendelian proportions, we suggest that the phenotypes observed in this species are genetically determined (involving dominant and recessive alleles) and may not have a defensive function.

Risk Assessment of the Introduction of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza as a Tool to be Applied in Prevention Strategy Plan

Risks of the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 through migratory birds to the main wintering site for wild birds in southern Brazil and its consequences were assessed. Likelihoods were estimated by a qualitative scale ranging from negligible to high. Northern migrants that breed in Alaska and regularly migrate to South America (primary Charadriiformes) can have contact with birds from affected areas in Asia. The likelihood of the introduction of HPAI H5N1 through migratory birds was found to be very low as it is a probability conditioned to successful transmission in breeding areas and the probabilities of an infected bird migrating and shedding the virus as far as southern Brazil. The probability of wild species becoming exposed to H5N1-infected birds is high as they nest with northern migrants from Alaska, whereas for backyard poultry it is moderate to high depending on proximity to wetlands and the presence of species that could increase the likelihood of contact with wild birds such as domestic duck. The magnitude of the biological and economic consequences of successful transmission to poultry or wild birds would be low to severe depending on the probability of the occurrence of outbreak scenarios described. As a result, the risk estimate is greater than negligible, and HPAI H5N1 prevention strategy in the region should always be carefully considered by the veterinary services in Brazil.

Stone tool use in wild bearded capuchin monkeys, Cebus libidinosus. Is it a strategy to overcome food scarcity?

To determine whether tool use varied in relation to food availability in bearded capuchin monkeys, we recorded anvil and stone hammer use in two sympatric wild groups, one of which was provisioned daily, and assessed climatic variables and availability of fruits, invertebrates and palm nuts. Capuchins used tools to crack open encased fruits, mostly palm nuts, throughout the year. Significant differences between wet and dry seasons were found in rainfall, abundance of invertebrates and palm nuts, but not in fruit abundance. Catule nuts were more abundant in the dry season. We tested the predictions of the necessity hypothesis (according to which tool use is maintained by sustenance needs during resource scarcity) and of the opportunity hypothesis (according to which tool use is maintained by repeated exposure to appropriate ecological conditions, such as preferred food resources necessitating the use of tools). Our findings support only the opportunity hypothesis. The rate of tool use was not affected by provisioning, and the monthly rate of tool use was not correlated with the availability of fruits and invertebrates. Conversely, all capuchins cracked food items other than palm nuts (e.g. cashew nuts) when available, and adult males cracked nuts more in the dry season when catule nuts (the most common and exploited nut) are especially abundant. Hence, in our field site capuchins use tools opportunistically. (C) 2012 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abdominoperineal Excision: Evolution of a Centenary Operation

During the last century, great improvements have been made in rectal cancer management regarding preoperative staging, pathologic assessment, surgical technique, and multimodal therapies. Surgically, there was a move from a strategy characterized by simple perineal excision to complex procedures performed by means of a laparoscopic approach, and more recently with the aid of robotic systems. Perhaps the most important advance is that rectal cancer is no longer a fatal disease as it was at the beginning of the 20th century. This achievement is definitely due in part to Ernest Mile's contribution regarding lymphatic spread of tumor cells, which helped clarify the natural history of the disease and the proper treatment alternatives. He advocated a combined approach with the rationale to clear "the zone of upward spread." The aim of the present paper is to present a brief review concerning the evolution of rectal cancer surgery, focusing attention on Miles' abdominoperineal excision of the rectum (APR) and its controversies and refinements over time. Although APR has currently been restricted to a small proportion of patients with low rectal cancer, recent propositions to excise the rectum performing a wider perineal and a proper pelvic floor resection have renewed interest on this procedure, confirming that Ernest Miles' original ideas still influence rectal cancer management after more than 100 years.

Convergent evolution of [D-Leucine1] microcystin-LR in taxonomically disparate cyanobacteria

Abstract Background Many important toxins and antibiotics are produced by non-ribosomal biosynthetic pathways. Microcystins are a chemically diverse family of potent peptide toxins and the end-products of a hybrid NRPS and PKS secondary metabolic pathway. They are produced by a variety of cyanobacteria and are responsible for the poisoning of humans as well as the deaths of wild and domestic animals around the world. The chemical diversity of the microcystin family is attributed to a number of genetic events that have resulted in the diversification of the pathway for microcystin assembly. Results Here, we show that independent evolutionary events affecting the substrate specificity of the microcystin biosynthetic pathway have resulted in convergence on a rare [D-Leu1] microcystin-LR chemical variant. We detected this rare microcystin variant from strains of the distantly related genera Microcystis, Nostoc, and Phormidium. Phylogenetic analysis performed using sequences of the catalytic domains within the mcy gene cluster demonstrated a clear recombination pattern in the adenylation domain phylogenetic tree. We found evidence for conversion of the gene encoding the McyA2 adenylation domain in strains of the genera Nostoc and Phormidium. However, point mutations affecting the substrate-binding sequence motifs of the McyA2 adenylation domain were associated with the change in substrate specificity in two strains of Microcystis. In addition to the main [D-Leu1] microcystin-LR variant, these two strains produced a new microcystin that was identified as [Met1] microcystin-LR. Conclusions Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that both point mutations and gene conversion result in functional mcy gene clusters that produce the same rare [D-Leu1] variant of microcystin in strains of the genera Microcystis, Nostoc, and Phormidium. Engineering pathways to produce recombinant non-ribosomal peptides could provide new natural products or increase the activity of known compounds. Our results suggest that the replacement of entire adenylation domains could be a more successful strategy to obtain higher specificity in the modification of the non-ribosomal peptides than point mutations.

Customer Evolution in Sales Channel Migration

This research has been triggered by an emergent trend in customer behavior: customers have rapidly expanded their channel experiences and preferences beyond traditional channels (such as stores) and they expect the company with which they do business to have a presence on all these channels. This evidence has produced an increasing interest in multichannel customer behavior and it has motivated several researchers to study the customers’ channel choices dynamics in multichannel environment. We study how the consumer decision process for channel choice and response to marketing communications evolves for a cohort of new customers. We assume a newly acquired customer’s decisions are described by a “trial” model, but the customer’s choice process evolves to a “post-trial” model as the customer learns his or her preferences and becomes familiar with the firm’s marketing efforts. The trial and post-trial decision processes are each described by different multinomial logit choice models, and the evolution from the trial to post-trial model is determined by a customer-level geometric distribution that captures the time it takes for the customer to make the transition. We utilize data for a major retailer who sells in three channels – retail store, the Internet, and via catalog. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods that allow for cross-customer heterogeneity. This allows us to have distinct parameters estimates for a trial and an after trial stages and to estimate the quickness of this transit at the individual level. The results show for example that the customer decision process indeed does evolve over time. Customers differ in the duration of the trial period and marketing has a different impact on channel choice in the trial and post-trial stages. Furthermore, we show that some people switch channel decision processes while others don’t and we found that several factors have an impact on the probability to switch decision process. Insights from this study can help managers tailor their marketing communication strategy as customers gain channel choice experience. Managers may also have insights on the timing of the direct marketing communications. They can predict the duration of the trial phase at individual level detecting the customers with a quick, long or even absent trial phase. They can even predict if the customer will change or not his decision process over time, and they can influence the switching process using specific marketing tools

Technology acquisition through licensing. Implications for firm strategy

Nowadays licensing practices have increased in importance and relevance driving the widespread diffusion of markets for technologies. Firms are shifting from a tactical to a strategic attitude towards licensing, addressing both business and corporate level objectives. The Open Innovation Paradigm has been embraced. Firms rely more and more on collaboration and external sourcing of knowledge. This new model of innovation requires firms to leverage on external technologies to unlock the potential of firms’ internal innovative efforts. In this context, firms’ competitive advantage depends both on their ability to recognize available opportunities inside and outside their boundaries and on their readiness to exploit them in order to fuel their innovation process dynamically. Licensing is one of the ways available to firm to ripe the advantages associated to an open attitude in technology strategy. From the licensee’s point view this implies challenging the so-called not-invented-here syndrome, affecting the more traditional firms that emphasize the myth of internal research and development supremacy. This also entails understanding the so-called cognitive constraints affecting the perfect functioning of markets for technologies that are associated to the costs for the assimilation, integration and exploitation of external knowledge by recipient firms. My thesis aimed at shedding light on new interesting issues associated to in-licensing activities that have been neglected by the literature on licensing and markets for technologies. The reason for this gap is associated to the “perspective bias” affecting the works within this stream of research. With very few notable exceptions, they have been generally concerned with the investigation of the so-called licensing dilemma of the licensor – whether to license out or to internally exploit the in-house developed technologies, while neglecting the licensee’s perspective. In my opinion, this has left rooms for improving the understanding of the determinants and conditions affecting licensing-in practices. From the licensee’s viewpoint, the licensing strategy deals with the search, integration, assimilation, exploitation of external technologies. As such it lies at the very hearth of firm’s technology strategy. Improving our understanding of this strategy is thus required to assess the full implications of in-licensing decisions as they shape firms’ innovation patterns and technological capabilities evolution. It also allow for understanding the so-called cognitive constraints associated to the not-invented-here syndrome. In recognition of that, the aim of my work is to contribute to the theoretical and empirical literature explaining the determinants of the licensee’s behavior, by providing a comprehensive theoretical framework as well as ad-hoc conceptual tools to understand and overcome frictions and to ease the achievement of satisfactory technology transfer agreements in the marketplace. Aiming at this, I investigate licensing-in in three different fashions developed in three research papers. In the first work, I investigate the links between licensing and the patterns of firms’ technological search diversification according to the framework of references of the Search literature, Resource-based Theory and the theory of general purpose technologies. In the second paper - that continues where the first one left off – I analyze the new concept of learning-bylicensing, in terms of development of new knowledge inside the licensee firms (e.g. new patents) some years after the acquisition of the license, according to the Dynamic Capabilities perspective. Finally, in the third study, Ideal with the determinants of the remuneration structure of patent licenses (form and amount), and in particular on the role of the upfront fee from the licensee’s perspective. Aiming at this, I combine the insights of two theoretical approaches: agency and real options theory.

Strategy as a matter of beliefs: the recorded music industry reinventing itself by rethinking itself

Managerial and organizational cognition studies the ways cognitions of managers in groups, organizations and industries shape their strategies and actions. Cognitions refer to simplified representations of managers’ internal and external environments, necessary to cope with the rich, ambiguous information requirements that characterize strategy making. Despite the important achievements in the field, many unresolved puzzles remain as to this process, particular as to the cognitive factors that condition actors in framing a response to a discontinuity, how actors can change their models in the face of a discontinuity, and the reciprocal relation between cognition and action. I leverage on the recent case of the recorded music industry in the face of the digital technology to study these issues, through a strategy-oriented study of the way early response to the discontinuity was constructed and of the subsequent evolution of this response. Through a longitudinal historical and cognitive analysis of actions and cognitions at both the industry and firm-level during the period in which the response took place (1999-2010), I gain important insights on the way historical beliefs in the industry shaped early response to the digital disruption, on the role of outsiders in promoting change through renewed vision about important issues, and on the reciprocal relationship between cognitive and strategic change.

Comparative DNA sequence and methylation analyses of orthologous genes in humans and non-human primates: Genetic and epigenetic footprints of evolution

Welche genetische Unterschiede machen uns verschieden von unseren nächsten Verwandten, den Schimpansen, und andererseits so ähnlich zu den Schimpansen? Was wir untersuchen und auch verstehen wollen, ist die komplexe Beziehung zwischen den multiplen genetischen und epigenetischen Unterschieden, deren Interaktion mit diversen Umwelt- und Kulturfaktoren in den beobachteten phänotypischen Unterschieden resultieren. Um aufzuklären, ob chromosomale Rearrangements zur Divergenz zwischen Mensch und Schimpanse beigetragen haben und welche selektiven Kräfte ihre Evolution geprägt haben, habe ich die kodierenden Sequenzen von 2 Mb umfassenden, die perizentrischen Inversionsbruchpunkte flankierenden Regionen auf den Chromosomen 1, 4, 5, 9, 12, 17 und 18 untersucht. Als Kontrolle dienten dabei 4 Mb umfassende kollineare Regionen auf den rearrangierten Chromosomen, welche mindestens 10 Mb von den Bruchpunktregionen entfernt lagen. Dabei konnte ich in den Bruchpunkten flankierenden Regionen im Vergleich zu den Kontrollregionen keine höhere Proteinevolutionsrate feststellen. Meine Ergebnisse unterstützen nicht die chromosomale Speziationshypothese für Mensch und Schimpanse, da der Anteil der positiv selektierten Gene (5,1% in den Bruchpunkten flankierenden Regionen und 7% in den Kontrollregionen) in beiden Regionen ähnlich war. Durch den Vergleich der Anzahl der positiv und negativ selektierten Gene per Chromosom konnte ich feststellen, dass Chromosom 9 die meisten und Chromosom 5 die wenigsten positiv selektierten Gene in den Bruchpunkt flankierenden Regionen und Kontrollregionen enthalten. Die Anzahl der negativ selektierten Gene (68) war dabei viel höher als die Anzahl der positiv selektierten Gene (17). Eine bioinformatische Analyse von publizierten Microarray-Expressionsdaten (Affymetrix Chip U95 und U133v2) ergab 31 Gene, die zwischen Mensch und Schimpanse differentiell exprimiert sind. Durch Untersuchung des dN/dS-Verhältnisses dieser 31 Gene konnte ich 7 Gene als negativ selektiert und nur 1 Gen als positiv selektiert identifizieren. Dieser Befund steht im Einklang mit dem Konzept, dass Genexpressionslevel unter stabilisierender Selektion evolvieren. Die meisten positiv selektierten Gene spielen überdies eine Rolle bei der Fortpflanzung. Viele dieser Speziesunterschiede resultieren eher aus Änderungen in der Genregulation als aus strukturellen Änderungen der Genprodukte. Man nimmt an, dass die meisten Unterschiede in der Genregulation sich auf transkriptioneller Ebene manifestieren. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurden die Unterschiede in der DNA-Methylierung zwischen Mensch und Schimpanse untersucht. Dazu wurden die Methylierungsmuster der Promotor-CpG-Inseln von 12 Genen im Cortex von Menschen und Schimpansen mittels klassischer Bisulfit-Sequenzierung und Bisulfit-Pyrosequenzierung analysiert. Die Kandidatengene wurden wegen ihrer differentiellen Expressionsmuster zwischen Mensch und Schimpanse sowie wegen Ihrer Assoziation mit menschlichen Krankheiten oder dem genomischen Imprinting ausgewählt. Mit Ausnahme einiger individueller Positionen zeigte die Mehrzahl der analysierten Gene keine hohe intra- oder interspezifische Variation der DNA-Methylierung zwischen den beiden Spezies. Nur bei einem Gen, CCRK, waren deutliche intraspezifische und interspezifische Unterschiede im Grad der DNA-Methylierung festzustellen. Die differentiell methylierten CpG-Positionen lagen innerhalb eines repetitiven Alu-Sg1-Elements. Die Untersuchung des CCRK-Gens liefert eine umfassende Analyse der intra- und interspezifischen Variabilität der DNA-Methylierung einer Alu-Insertion in eine regulatorische Region. Die beobachteten Speziesunterschiede deuten darauf hin, dass die Methylierungsmuster des CCRK-Gens wahrscheinlich in Adaption an spezifische Anforderungen zur Feinabstimmung der CCRK-Regulation unter positiver Selektion evolvieren. Der Promotor des CCRK-Gens ist anfällig für epigenetische Modifikationen durch DNA-Methylierung, welche zu komplexen Transkriptionsmustern führen können. Durch ihre genomische Mobilität, ihren hohen CpG-Anteil und ihren Einfluss auf die Genexpression sind Alu-Insertionen exzellente Kandidaten für die Förderung von Veränderungen während der Entwicklungsregulation von Primatengenen. Der Vergleich der intra- und interspezifischen Methylierung von spezifischen Alu-Insertionen in anderen Genen und Geweben stellt eine erfolgversprechende Strategie dar.