Alternative ways to estimate change points in multinomial sequences. An application to an authorship attribution problem

The statistical analysis of literary style is the part of stylometry that compares measurable characteristicsin a text that are rarely controlled by the author, with those in other texts. When thegoal is to settle authorship questions, these characteristics should relate to the author’s style andnot to the genre, epoch or editor, and they should be such that their variation between authors islarger than the variation within comparable texts from the same author.For an overview of the literature on stylometry and some of the techniques involved, see for exampleMosteller and Wallace (1964, 82), Herdan (1964), Morton (1978), Holmes (1985), Oakes (1998) orLebart, Salem and Berry (1998).Tirant lo Blanc, a chivalry book, is the main work in catalan literature and it was hailed to be“the best book of its kind in the world” by Cervantes in Don Quixote. Considered by writterslike Vargas Llosa or Damaso Alonso to be the first modern novel in Europe, it has been translatedseveral times into Spanish, Italian and French, with modern English translations by Rosenthal(1996) and La Fontaine (1993). The main body of this book was written between 1460 and 1465,but it was not printed until 1490.There is an intense and long lasting debate around its authorship sprouting from its first edition,where its introduction states that the whole book is the work of Martorell (1413?-1468), while atthe end it is stated that the last one fourth of the book is by Galba (?-1490), after the death ofMartorell. Some of the authors that support the theory of single authorship are Riquer (1990),Chiner (1993) and Badia (1993), while some of those supporting the double authorship are Riquer(1947), Coromines (1956) and Ferrando (1995). For an overview of this debate, see Riquer (1990).Neither of the two candidate authors left any text comparable to the one under study, and thereforediscriminant analysis can not be used to help classify chapters by author. By using sample textsencompassing about ten percent of the book, and looking at word length and at the use of 44conjunctions, prepositions and articles, Ginebra and Cabos (1998) detect heterogeneities that mightindicate the existence of two authors. By analyzing the diversity of the vocabulary, Riba andGinebra (2000) estimates that stylistic boundary to be near chapter 383.Following the lead of the extensive literature, this paper looks into word length, the use of the mostfrequent words and into the use of vowels in each chapter of the book. Given that the featuresselected are categorical, that leads to three contingency tables of ordered rows and therefore tothree sequences of multinomial observations.Section 2 explores these sequences graphically, observing a clear shift in their distribution. Section 3describes the problem of the estimation of a suden change-point in those sequences, in the followingsections we propose various ways to estimate change-points in multinomial sequences; the methodin section 4 involves fitting models for polytomous data, the one in Section 5 fits gamma modelsonto the sequence of Chi-square distances between each row profiles and the average profile, theone in Section 6 fits models onto the sequence of values taken by the first component of thecorrespondence analysis as well as onto sequences of other summary measures like the averageword length. In Section 7 we fit models onto the marginal binomial sequences to identify thefeatures that distinguish the chapters before and after that boundary. Most methods rely heavilyon the use of generalized linear models

Children in the welfare state. A social investment approach

Children occupy centre-stage in any new welfare equilibrium. Failure to support families may produce either of two undesirable scenarios. We shall see a society without children if motherhood remains incompatible with work. A new family policy needs to recognize that children are a collective asset and that the cost of having children is rising. The double challenge is to eliminate the constraints on having children in the first place, and to ensure that the children we have are ensured optimal opportunities. The simple reason why a new social contract is called for is that fertility and child quality combine both private utility and societal gains. And like no other epoch in the past, the societal gains are mounting all-the-while that families’ ability to produce these social gains is weakening.In the following 1 analyze the twin challenges of fertility and child development. I then examine which kind of policy mix will ensure both the socially desired level of fertility and investment in our children? The task is to identify a Paretian optimum that will maximize efficiency gains and social equity simultaneously.

Climatic and biotic upheavals following the end-Permian mass extinction

Recovery from the end-Permian mass extinction is frequently described as delayed(1-3), with complex ecological communities typically not found in the fossil record until the Middle Triassic epoch. However, the taxonomic diversity of a number of marine groups, ranging from ammonoids to benthic foraminifera, peaked rapidly in the Early Triassic(4-10). These variations in biodiversity occur amidst pronounced excursions in the carbon isotope record, which are compatible with episodes of massive CO2 outgassing from the Siberian Large Igneous Province(4,11-13). Here we present a high-resolution Early Triassic temperature record based on the oxygen isotope composition of pristine apatite from fossil conodonts. Our reconstruction shows that the beginning of the Smithian substage of the Early Triassic was marked by a cooler climate, followed by an interval of warmth lasting until the Spathian substage boundary. Cooler conditions resumed in the Spathian. We find the greatest increases in taxonomic diversity during the cooler phases of the early Smithian and early Spathian. In contrast, a period of extreme warmth in the middle and late Smithian was associated with floral ecological change and high faunal taxonomic turnover in the ocean. We suggest that climate upheaval and carbon-cycle perturbations due to volcanic outgassing were important drivers of Early Triassic biotic recovery.

Exploring the connection between the stellar wind and the non-thermal emission in LS 5039

Context.LS 5039 has been observed with several X-ray instruments so far showing quite steady emission in the long term and no signatures of accretion disk. The source also presents X-ray variability at orbital timescales in flux and photon index. The system harbors an O-type main sequence star with moderate mass-loss. At present, the link between the X-rays and the stellar wind is unclear. Aims.We study the X-ray fluxes, spectra, and absorption properties of LS 5039 at apastron and periastron passages during an epoch of enhanced stellar mass-loss, and the long term evolution of the latter in connection with the X-ray fluxes. Methods.New XMM-Newton observations were performed around periastron and apastron passages in September 2005, when the stellar wind activity was apparently higher. April 2005 Chandra observations on LS 5039 were revisited. Moreover, a compilation of H EW data obtained since 1992, from which the stellar mass-loss evolution can be approximately inferred, was carried out. Results.XMM-Newton observations show higher and harder emission around apastron than around periastron. No signatures of thermal emission or a reflection iron line indicating the presence of an accretion disk are found in the spectrum, and the hydrogen column density () is compatible with being the same in both observations and consistent with the interstellar value. 2005 Chandra observations show a hard X-ray spectrum, and possibly high fluxes, although pileup effects preclude conclusive results from being obtained. The H EW shows yearly variations of 10%, and does not seem to be correlated with X-ray fluxes obtained at similar phases, unlike what is expected in the wind accretion scenario. Conclusions.2005 XMM-Newton and Chandra observations are consistent with 2003 RXTE/PCA results, namely moderate flux and spectral variability at different orbital phases. The constancy of the seems to imply that either the X-ray emitter is located at 1012 cm from the compact object, or the density in the system is 3 to 27 times smaller than that predicted by a spherical symmetric wind model. We suggest that the multiwavelength non-thermal emission of LS 5039 is related to the observed extended radio jets and is unlikely to be produced inside the binary system.

An inventory of the marine and transitional Middle/Upper Eocene deposits of the Southeastern Pyrenean Foreland Basin (NE Spain)

In the southeastern Ebro Foreland Basin, the marine deposits of Lutetian and Bartonian age show excellent outcrop conditions, with a great lateral and horizontal continuity of lithostratigraphic units. In addition, the rich fossil record -mainly larger foraminifers-, provides biostratigraphic data of regional relevance for the whole Paleogene Pyrenean Basin, that can be used for the Middle Eocene biocorrelation of the western Tethys. This contribution is a sedimentary and biostratigraphic synthesis of the basic outcrops and sections of the Lutetian andBartonian marine and transitional deposits in the southeastern sector of the Ebro Foreland Basin.

Características sedimentológicas de la terminación del ciclo marino del Eoceno superior en el sector oriental de la Depresión del Ebro (Catalunya, N.E. de Espaiia)

Durante el 'Biarritziense' superior y el Priaboniense, la sedimentación en el Eoceno autóctono de Catalunya, adquiere caracteres deltaicos acumulándose los sedimentos en forma de lóbulos deltaicos que translapan sucesivamente y progradan hacia el interior de la cuenca. Cuando los canales distributarios que originan a estos lóbulos son abandonados, se produce un retrabajamiento de sus materiales por la acción marina (oleaje y posiblemente mareas). Es en este episodio cuando, sobre la morfologia dcltaica heredada, se desarrollaron con mucha frecuencia arrecifes de corales y algas rojas que murieron al depositarse sobre ellos los materiales silicoclasticos procedentes de la progradación de un nuevo lóbulo deltacio. Una excepción la constituye el arrecife de Sant Bartomeu del Grau, resultante de la superposición de dos periodos de crecimiento arrecifal, cuya muerte guarda relación, en cada caso, con las primeras etapas de sedimentación evaporitica de la Cuenca evaporitica central catalana. El mecanismo de cierre para este extremo de la cuenca evaporitica se interpreta originado por el estrangulamiento de la misma por la acción de los lóbulos deltaicos procedentes de los bordes Sur y Norte de la cuenca. El estudio cronoestratigráfico efectuado corrobora al modelo paleogeográfico que se expone, el cual, presupone una conexión «mediterránea» por el Emporda durante el Priaboniense.

Marine and transitional Middle/Upper Eocenen units of the Southeastern Pyrenean Foreland Basin (NE Spain)

The stratigraphic basis of this work has allowed the use of larger foraminifers in the biostratigraphic characterisation of the new Shallow Benthic Zones (SBZ). This part of the volume presents a description of the sedimentary cycles formed by the transgressive-regressive systems of the Lutetian and Bartonian in the southeastern sector of the Ebro Foreland Basin. Concerning the Lutetian deposits studied in the Amer-Vic and Empordà areas, four sedimentary cycles have been characterised. The first and second are found within the Tavertet/Girona Limestone Formation (Reguant, 1967; Pallí, 1972), while the third and fourth cycles cover the Coll de Malla Marl Formation (Clavell et al., 1970), the Bracons Formation (Gich, 1969, 1972), the Banyoles Marl Formation (Almela and Ríos, 1943), and the Bellmunt Formation (Gich, 1969, 1972). In the Bartonian deposits studied in the Igualada area, two transgressive-regressive sedimentary cycles have been characterised in the Collbàs Formation (Ferrer, 1971), the Igualada Formation (Ferrer, 1971), and the Tossa Formation (Ferrer, 1971). The Shallow Benthic Zones (SBZs) recognised within the Lutetian are the following: SBZ 13, from the Early Lutetian, in the transgressive system of the first cycle; SBZ 14, from the Middle Lutetian, in the second cycle and the lower part of the transgressive system of the third cycle; SBZ 15, from the Middle Lutetian, in the remaining parts of the third system; SBZ 16, from the Late Lutetian, throughout the fourth cycle. The association of larger foraminifers in the first and second cycles of the Bartonian in the Igualada area has been used as the basis for the definition of SBZs 17 and 18 recognised in the Bartonian of the western Tethys.

Los sistemas lacustres del Eoceno superior y Oligoceno del sector oriental de la Cuenca del Ebro

El relleno sedimentari de edad Priaboniense superior-Chattiense dcl sector oriental de la cuencade antepaís del Ebro puede subdividirse en cinco secuencias deposicionales, definidas en base a 1os principales cambios paleogeográficos que afectaron alos sistemas aluviales y lacustres en la región. Tanto el desarrollo de estructuras tectónicas superficiales como 1os procesos de ajuste isostático regional son considerados como 1os principales factores de control de esta evolución sedimentaria. Los cinco sistemas lacustres reconocidos (La Noguera, L'Anoia, Segarra, L'Urgell y Los Monegros) muestran unas caracteristicas de extensión areal y desarrollo de facies fuertemente controladas por su situación respecto a las zonas de máxima subsidencia. Las tendencias megasecuenciales de cambio o de alternancia de deposición evaporítica y carbonatada, son atribuidas aquí tanto a posibles cambios climáticos como a cambios en la composición del área fuente. Estos fueron inducidos por la evolución tectónica de los margenes de la cuenca.

Pieces of Iowa’s Past, April 4, 2012

Pieces of Iowa’s Past, published by the Iowa State Capitol Tour Guides weekly during the legislative session, features historical facts about Iowa, the Capitol, and the early workings of state government. All historical publications are reproduced here with the actual spelling, punctuation, and grammar retained. April 4, 2012 THIS WEEK: Dating an Epoch from Photographs. BACKGROUND: Iowa State Capitol Grounds Extension Project The Capitol extension project began about 1913. The purpose of the project was to purchase land surrounding the Capitol in order to improve the beauty of the grounds and obtain enough land to build new structures and alleviate the overcrowding in the Capitol. Senate File 538 levied a tax to pay for the purchase of the property. Van Buren and Wapello counties filed a suit against the state because it was believed by many people that this statewide tax was simply providing Des Moines with a “new park.” This case was argued before the Iowa Supreme Court and the photographs that follow are a portion of the brief filed with the Court.

Las unidades litoestratigráficas del Eoceno pre-pirenaico del Ripollés oriental (prov. de Gerona y Barcelona)

En este trabajo se definen una serie de unidades litoestratigréficas para el Eoceno prepirenaico del Ripollés oriental (provincia de Gerona y Barcelona) y se da un corte general del mismo que pone de manifiesto los cambios de facies y las relaciones entre las distintas formaciones y miembros.

Nota preliminar sobre las turbiditas eocenas de los alrededores de Ripoll (Prov. de Gerona)

En este trabajo se presentan algunos resultados sobre las características sedimentológicas de las turbiditas eocenas de Ripoll, considerándose igualmente su posición y significado dentro de la cuenca de sedimentación prepirenaica.

Marine and transitional Middle/Upper Eocenen units of the Southeastern Pyrenean Foreland Basin (NE Spain)

The stratigraphic basis of this work has allowed the use of larger foraminifers in the biostratigraphic characterisation of the new Shallow Benthic Zones (SBZ). This part of the volume presents a description of the sedimentary cycles formed by the transgressive-regressive systems of the Lutetian and Bartonian in the southeastern sector of the Ebro Foreland Basin. Concerning the Lutetian deposits studied in the Amer-Vic and Empordà areas, four sedimentary cycles have been characterised. The first and second are found within the Tavertet/Girona Limestone Formation (Reguant, 1967; Pallí, 1972), while the third and fourth cycles cover the Coll de Malla Marl Formation (Clavell et al., 1970), the Bracons Formation (Gich, 1969, 1972), the Banyoles Marl Formation (Almela and Ríos, 1943), and the Bellmunt Formation (Gich, 1969, 1972). In the Bartonian deposits studied in the Igualada area, two transgressive-regressive sedimentary cycles have been characterised in the Collbàs Formation (Ferrer, 1971), the Igualada Formation (Ferrer, 1971), and the Tossa Formation (Ferrer, 1971). The Shallow Benthic Zones (SBZs) recognised within the Lutetian are the following: SBZ 13, from the Early Lutetian, in the transgressive system of the first cycle; SBZ 14, from the Middle Lutetian, in the second cycle and the lower part of the transgressive system of the third cycle; SBZ 15, from the Middle Lutetian, in the remaining parts of the third system; SBZ 16, from the Late Lutetian, throughout the fourth cycle. The association of larger foraminifers in the first and second cycles of the Bartonian in the Igualada area has been used as the basis for the definition of SBZs 17 and 18 recognised in the Bartonian of the western Tethys.

An inventory of the marine and transitional Middle/Upper Eocene deposits of the Southeastern Pyrenean Foreland Basin (NE Spain)

In the southeastern Ebro Foreland Basin, the marine deposits of Lutetian and Bartonian age show excellent outcrop conditions, with a great lateral and horizontal continuity of lithostratigraphic units. In addition, the rich fossil record -mainly larger foraminifers-, provides biostratigraphic data of regional relevance for the whole Paleogene Pyrenean Basin, that can be used for the Middle Eocene biocorrelation of the western Tethys. This contribution is a sedimentary and biostratigraphic synthesis of the basic outcrops and sections of the Lutetian andBartonian marine and transitional deposits in the southeastern sector of the Ebro Foreland Basin.

Fifth-order cyclicity and organic matter contents relationship (Lower Eocene, Pyrenees)

The Upper Limestone Member of the Corones Formation of the Spanish Pyrenees consists of various units (Lower and Upper Foraminifera Units, Shale Unit, Cherty-ostracode Unit, Ostracode Unit and Chara-ostracode Unit) and offers strong facies and lateral thickness (20 to 80 m) variations. Detailed facies analyses, fifth-order cycles and organic geochemical determinations in the central domain of the Corones platform carbonates (Cherty-ostracode Unit), lower Eocene in age, were carried out to establish a case of close relationship between variations in organic matter productivity and cyclicity with annual period. The Cherty-ostracode Unit displays a continuous and pervasive fifth-order cyclicity, represented by 5 cycles. Each cycle consists of a lower part (mollusc facies) and an upper part (laminated ostracode facies). The calculated fifth-order cycle period ranges from about 17,000 to 28,000 years, which falls within the Milankovitch Band. Variations in organic matter content related to these carbonate cycles have been established. The lower mollusc facies members show a low organic carbon content and Hydrogen Index (HI) below 0.6% in weight and 261, respectively. By contrast, the upper laminated ostracode facies members show high organic carbon contents (up to 2% in weight) and high HI (between 164 and 373), and are also characterized by important silicification processes (the content in chert is up to 30%). The organic geochemistry resulting from these organic rich levels reflects a contribution of algal marine input.