A global assessment of manufacturing: Economic development, energy use, carbon emissions, and the potential for energy efficiency and materials recycling

We present in two parts an assessment of global manufacturing. In the first part, we review economic development, pollution, and carbon emissions from a country perspective, tracking the rise of China and other developing countries. The results show not only a rise in the economic fortunes of the newly industrializing nations, but also a significant rise in global pollution, particularly air pollution and CO2 emissions largely from coal use, which alter and even reverse previous global trends. In the second part, we change perspective and quantitatively evaluate two important technical strategies to reduce pollution and carbon emissions: energy efficiency and materials recycling. We subdivide the manufacturing sector on the basis of the five major subsectors that dominate energy use and carbon emissions: (a) iron and steel, (b) cement, (c) plastics, (d) paper, and (e) aluminum. The analysis identifies technical constraints on these strategies, but by combined and aggressive action, industry should be able to balance increases in demand with these technical improvements. The result would be high but relatively flat energy use and carbon emissions. The review closes by demonstrating the consequences of extrapolating trends in production and carbon emissions and suggesting two options for further environmental improvements, materials efficiency, and demand reduction. © 2013 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

Information programs for technology adoption: The case of energy-efficiency audits

We analyze technology adoption decisions of manufacturing plants in response to government-sponsored energy audits. Overall, plants adopt about half of the recommended energy-efficiency projects. Using fixed effects logit estimation, we find that adoption rates are higher for projects with shorter paybacks, lower costs, greater annual savings, higher energy prices, and greater energy conservation. Plants are 40% more responsive to initial costs than annual savings, suggesting that subsidies may be more effective at promoting energy-efficient technologies than energy price increases. Adoption decisions imply hurdle rates of 50-100%, which is consistent with the investment criteria small and medium-size firms state they use. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of electricity energy efficiency programs

We analyze the cost-effectiveness of electric utility ratepayer-funded programs to promote demand-side management (DSM) and energy efficiency (EE) investments. We specify a model that relates electricity demand to previous EE DSM spending, energy prices, income, weather, and other demand factors. In contrast to previous studies, we allow EE DSM spending to have a potential longterm demand effect and explicitly address possible endogeneity in spending. We find that current period EE DSM expenditures reduce electricity demand and that this effect persists for a number of years. Our findings suggest that ratepayer funded DSM expenditures between 1992 and 2006 produced a central estimate of 0.9 percent savings in electricity consumption over that time period and a 1.8 percent savings over all years. These energy savings came at an expected average cost to utilities of roughly 5 cents per kWh saved when future savings are discounted at a 5 percent rate. Copyright © 2012 by the IAEE. All rights reserved.

Energy efficiency policies: A retrospective examination

We review literature on several types of energy efficiency policies: appliance standards, financial incentive programs, information and voluntary programs, and management of government energy use. For each, we provide a brief synopsis of the relevant programs, along with available existing estimates of energy savings, costs, and cost-effectiveness at a national level. The literature examining these estimates points to potential issues in determining the energy savings and costs, but recent evidence suggests that techniques for measuring both have improved. Taken together, the literature identifies up to four quads of energy savings annually from these programs - at least half of which is attributable to appliance standards and utility-based demand-side management, with possible additional energy savings from the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) ENERGY STAR, Climate Challenge, and Section 1605b voluntary programs to reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions. Related reductions in CO 2 and criteria air pollutants may contribute an additional 10% to the value of energy savings above the price of energy itself. Copyright © 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

Energy efficiency in gait, activity, participation, and health status in children with cerebral palsy

The aim of the study was to establish if a relationship exists between the energy efficiency of gait, and measures of activity limitation, participation restriction, and health status in a representative sample of children with cerebral palsy (CP). Secondary aims were to investigate potential differences between clinical subtypes and gross motor classification, and to explore other relationships between the measures under investigation. A longitudinal study of a representative sample of 184 children with ambulant CP was conducted (112 males, 72 females; 94 had unilateral spastic C P, 84 had bilateral spastic C P, and six had non-spastic forms; age range 4-17y; Gross Motor Function Classification System Level I, n=57; Level II, n=91; Level III, n=22; and Level IV, n=14); energy efficiency (oxygen cost) during gait, activity limitation, participation restriction, and health status were recorded. Energy efficiency during gait was shown to correlate significantly with activity limitations; no relationship between energy efficiency during gait was found with either participation restriction or health status. With the exception of psychosocial health, all other measures showed significant differences by clinical subtype and gross motor classification. The energy efficiency of walking is not reflective of participation restriction or health status. Thus, therapies leading to improved energy efficiency may not necessarily lead to improved participation or general health.

Age-related changes in energy efficiency of gait, activity, and participation in children with cerebral palsy

Aim
The aim of this study was to use a prospective longitudinal study to describe age-related trends in energy efficiency during gait, activity, and participation in ambulatory children with cerebral palsy (CP).

Method
Gross Motor Function Measure (GMFM), Paediatric Evaluation of Disability Inventory (PEDI), and Lifestyle Assessment Questionnaire-Cerebral Palsy (LAQ-CP) scores, and energy efficiency (oxygen cost) during gait were assessed in representative sample of 184 children (112 male; 72 female; mean age 10y 9mo; range 4–16y) with CP. Ninety-four children had unilateral spastic CP, 84 bilateral spastic CP, and six had other forms of CP. Fifty-seven were classified as Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) level I, 91 as level II, 22 as level III, and 14 as level IV). Assessments were carried out on two occasions (visit 1 and visit 2) separated by an interval of 2 years and 7 months. A total of 157 participants returned for reassessment.

Results
Significant improvements in mean raw scores for GMFM, PEDI, and LAQ-CP were recorded; however, mean raw oxygen cost deteriorated over time. Age-related trends revealed gait to be most inefficient at the age of 12 years, but GMFM scores continued to improve until the age of 13 years, and two PEDI subscales to age 14 years, before deteriorating (p<0.05). Baseline score was consistently the single greatest predictor of visit 2 score. Substantial agreement in GMFCS ratings over time was achieved (?lw=0.74–0.76).

Interpretation
These findings have implications in terms of optimal provision and delivery of services for young people with CP to maximize physical capabilities and maintain functional skills into adulthood.

Energy efficiency investments in the home: Swiss homeowners and expectations about future energy prices

Using conjoint choice experiments, we surveyed 473 Swiss homeowners about their preferences for energy efficiency home renovations.We find that homeowners are responsive to the upfront costs of the renovation projects, governmentoffered rebates, savings in energy expenses, time horizon over which such savings would be realized, and thermal comfort improvement. The implicit discount rate is low, ranging from 1.5 to 3%, depending on model specification. This is consistent with Hassett and Metcalf (1993) and Metcalf and Rosenthal (1995), and with the fact that our scenarios contain no uncertainty. Respondents who feel completely uncertain about future energy prices are more likely to select the status quo (no renovations) in any given choice task and weight the costs of the investments more heavily than the financial gains (subsidies and savings on the energy bills). Renovations are more likely when respondents believe that climate change considerations are important determinants of home renovations. Copyright © 2013 by the IAEE. All rights reserved.