Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Defensive Metabolites from Antarctic Invertebrates: Does Energetic Content Interfere with Feeding Repellence?

Many bioactive products from benthic invertebrates mediating ecological interactions have proved to reduce predation, but their mechanisms of action, and their molecular identities, are usually unknown. It was suggested, yet scarcely investigated, that nutritional quality interferes with defensive metabolites. This means that antifeedants would be less effective when combined with energetically rich prey, and that higher amounts of defensive compounds would be needed for predator avoidance. We evaluated the effects of five types of repellents obtained from Antarctic invertebrates, in combination with diets of different energetic values. The compounds came from soft corals, ascidians and hexactinellid sponges; they included wax esters, alkaloids, a meroterpenoid, a steroid, and the recently described organic acid, glassponsine. Feeding repellency was tested through preference assays by preparing diets (alginate pearls) combining different energetic content and inorganic material. Experimental diets contained various concentrations of each repellent product, and were offered along with control compound-free pearls, to the Antarctic omnivore amphipod Cheirimedon femoratus. Meridianin alkaloids were the most active repellents, and wax esters were the least active when combined with foods of distinct energetic content. Our data show that levels of repellency vary for each compound, and that they perform differently when mixed with distinct assay foods. The natural products that interacted the most with energetic content were those occurring in nature at higher concentrations. The bioactivity of the remaining metabolites tested was found to depend on a threshold concentration, enough to elicit feeding repellence, independently from nutritional quality.

Early childhood constraint therapy for sensory/motor impairment in cerebral palsy: a randomised clinical trial protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Cerebral palsy (CP) is the most common physical disability in childhood. It is a disorder resulting from sensory and motor impairments due to perinatal brain injury, with lifetime consequences that range from poor adaptive and social function to communication and emotional disturbances. Infants with CP have a fundamental disadvantage in recovering motor function: they do not receive accurate sensory feedback from their movements, leading to developmental disregard. Constraint-induced movement therapy (CIMT) is one of the few effective neurorehabilitative strategies shown to improve upper extremity motor function in adults and older children with CP, potentially overcoming developmental disregard. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study is a randomised controlled trial of children 12-24 months corrected age studying the effectiveness of CIMT combined with motor and sensory-motor interventions. The study population will comprise 72 children with CP and 144 typically developing children for a total of N=216 children. All children with CP, regardless of group allocation will continue with their standard of care occupational and physical therapy throughout the study. The research material collected will be in the form of data from high-density array event-related potential scan, standardised assessment scores and motion analysis scores. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study protocol was approved by the Institutional Review Board. The findings of the trial will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and scientific conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02567630.

Estimating the effects of fiscal policy under the budget constraint

I reconsider the short-term effects of fiscal policy when both government spending and taxes are allowed to respond to the level of public debt. I embed the long-term government budget constraint in a VAR, and apply this common trends model to US quarterly data. The results overturn some widely held beliefs on fiscal policy effects. The main finding is that expansionary fiscal policy has contractionary effects on output and inflation. Ricardian effects may dominate when fiscal expansions are expected to be adjusted by future tax rises or spending cuts. The evidence supports RBC models with distortionary taxation. We can discard some alternative interpretations that are based on monetary policy reactions or supply-side effects.

Determination of the HMX and RDX content in synthesized energetic material by HPLC, FT-MIR, and FT-NIR spectroscopies

A new method has been developed for determining the content of mixtures of octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (HMX) and hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX), the HMX/RDX ratio, in explosive compositions by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), in the regions MIR (mid infrared) and NIR (near infrared) with reference values obtained by chromatographic analysis (HPLC). Plots of relative MIR (A917 / A783) or NIR absorbance values (A4412 / A4317) versus HMX/RDX ratio determined by HPLC analysis revealed good linear relationships.

Circumsolar energetic particle distribution on 2011 November 3

Late on 2011 November 3, STEREO-A, STEREO-B, MESSENGER, and near-Earth spacecraft observed an energetic particle flux enhancement. Based on the analysis of in situ plasma and particle observations, their correlation with remote sensing observations, and an interplanetary transport model, we conclude that the particle increases observed at multiple locations had a common single source active region and the energetic particles filled a very broad region around the Sun. The active region was located at the solar backside (as seen from Earth) and was the source of a large flare, a fast and wide coronal mass ejection, and an EIT wave, accompanied by type II and type III radio-emission. In contrast to previous solar energetic particle events showing broad longitudinal spread, this event showed clear particle anisotropies at three widely separated observation points at 1AU, suggesting direct particle injection close to the magnetic footpoint of each spacecraft, lasting for several hours.We discuss these observations and the possible scenarios explaining the extremely broad particle spread for this event.

Multi-Eruption Solar Energetic Particle Events Observed by SOHO/ERNE

In the last two decades of studying the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) phenomenon, intensive emphasis has been put on how and when and where these SEPs are injected into interplanetary space. It is well known that SEPs are related to solar flares and CMEs. However, the role of each in the acceleration of SEPs has been under debate since the major role was taken from flares ascribed to CMEs step by step after the skylab mission, which started the era of CME spaceborn observations. Since then, the shock wave generated by powerful CMEs in between 2-5 solar radii is considered the major accelerator. The current paradigm interprets the prolonged proton intensity-time profile in gradual SEP events as a direct effect of accelerated SEPs by shock wave propagating in the interplanetary medium. Thus the powerful CME is thought of as a starter for the acceleration and its shock wave as a continuing accelerator to result in such an intensity-time profile. Generally it is believed that a single powerful CME which might or might not be associated with a flare is always the reason behind such gradual events.

In this work we use the Energetic and Relativistic Nucleus and Electrons ERNE instrument on board Solar and Heliospheric Observatory SOHO to present an empirical study to show the possibility of multiple accelerations in SEP events. In the beginning we found 18 double-peaked SEP events by examining 88 SEP events. The peaks in the intensity-time profile were separated by 3-24 hours. We divided the SEP events according to possible multiple acceleration into four groups and in one of these groups we find evidence for multiple acceleration in velocity dispersion and change in the abundance ratio associated at transition to the second peak. Then we explored the intensity-time profiles of all SEP events during solar cycle 23 and found that most of the SEP events are associated with multiple eruptions at the Sun and we call those events as Multi-Eruption Solar Energetic Particles (MESEP) events. We use the data available by Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronograph LASCO on board SOHO to determine the CME associated with such events and YOHKOH and GOES satellites data to determine the flare associated with such events. We found four types of MESEP according to the appearance of the peaks in the intensity-time profile in large variation of energy levels. We found that it is not possible to determine whether the peaks are related to an eruption at the Sun or not, only by examining the anisotropy flux, He/p ratio and velocity dispersion. Then we chose a rare event in which there is evidence of SEP acceleration from behind previous CME. This work resulted in a conclusion which is inconsistent with the current SEP paradigm. Then we discovered through examining another MESEP event, that energetic particles accelerated by a second CME can penetrate a previous CME-driven decelerating shock. Finally, we report the previous two MESEP events with new two events and find a common basis for second CME SEPs penetrating previous decelerating shocks. This phenomenon is reported for the first time and expected to have significant impact on modification of the current paradigm of the solar energetic particle events.

Dft theoretical study of energetic nitrogen-rich C4N6H8-n(NO2)n derivatives

Density functional theory (DFT) calculations at the B3LYP/6-31G** theoretical level were performed for a series of guanidine-fused bicyclic skeleton derivatives C4N6H8-n(NO2)n (n = 1 - 6). The heats of formation (HOFs) were calculated by isodesmic reactions, and the detonation properties were evaluated using the Kamlet - Jacobs equations. The bond dissociation energies were also analyzed to investigate the thermal stability and sensitivity of the compounds. The results show that all of the derivatives have high positive HOFs, compound G has the highest theoretical density, and compound F1 has the highest detonation velocity and detonation pressure. Considering both the detonation properties and thermal stabilities, compounds D1 and D4 (3 nitro substituents), E1 - E6 (4 nitro substituents), and G (6 nitro substituents) can be regarded as potential candidates for high-energy density materials.

Optimization of wind blade design including its energetic characteristics

The goal of the Master’s thesis is to develop and to analyze the optimization method for finding a geometry shape of classical horizontal wind turbine blades based on set of criteria. The thesis develops a technique that allows the designer to determine the weight of such factors as power coefficient, sound pressure level and the cost function in the overall process of blade shape optimization. The optimization technique applies the Desirability function. It was never used before in that kind of technical problems, and in this sense it can claim to originality of research. To do the analysis and the optimization processes more convenient the software application was developed.

Varieties of the generality constraint

Since its introduction by Evans (1982), the generality constraint (GC) has been invoked by various philosophers for different purposes. Our purpose here is, first, to clarify what precisely the GC states by way of an interpretive framework, the GC Schema, and second, to demonstrate in terms of this framework some problems that arise if one invokes the GC (or systematicity) without clearly specifying an appropriate interpretation. By utilizing the GC Schema these sorts of problems can be avoided, and we thus propose it as a tool to facilitate argumentation that appeals to the GC.

Extractives and energetic properties of wood and charcoal

Charcoal production stands out as a raw material for the production of renewable energy. To assess wood quality in energy terms, studies have focused more on the holocellulose and lignin content than on the role of extractives. The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between the extractive content in cold water, in dichloromethane and total on energy properties of wood and charcoal, from six trees species. The extractives were removed with different solvents to be recorded and gross calorific value of wood was determined. The wood was carbonized at 1.67°C/min heating rate until maximum of 450°C and residence time of 30 min. The extractive content was correlated with the gravimetric yield, apparent relative density, ash, volatile matter, fixed carbon and gross calorific value of charcoal. The removal of total extractives and extractives soluble in dichloromethane reduced the gross calorific value of wood of most species evaluated. The extractives removed in cold water did not correlate with the parameters of carbonization. The extractives content in dichloromethane correlated with volatile matter, fixed carbon and gross calorific value. Total extractive content correlated with gravimetric yield, apparent relative density and gross calorific value of charcoal.

Seeder-fertilizer machine: energetic demand as a function of vegetal covering handling and manure deposition shank depth in no-tillage system

The purpose of this work was evaluating the energetic demand of a seeder-fertilizer machine as a function of the type and handling of vegetal covering culture and of the fertilizer deposition shank depth. A Valtra BM100 tractor was used implemented to pull a high precision seeder-fertilizer machine with four ranks of seeding, spaced 0.9 m for maize culture. Experiment was conducted with design in randomized blocks in factorial plots, in the Laboratory of Machines and Agricultural Mechanization experimental area (LAMMA) of UNESP-Jaboticabal, using two covering cultures (black-mucuna and crotalaria), three handlings of this covering, two mechanical (straw crusher and roller knife) and one chemical (pulverization of herbicide), performed 120 days after seeding of covering cultures and three depths of fertilizer deposition shank, completing 18 treatments, with four repetitions, totaling 72 observations. Parameters of displacement speed, gliding, force on traction bar, peak force, power on pulling bar and fuel consumption were evaluated. It was possible to conclude that force on traction bar was less for depths of 0.11 and 0.14 m of fertilizer plough shank, the same occurring for peak force, power on traction bar and volumetric consumption. The specific consumption was lower at a depth of 0.17 m of fertilizer plough shank. Covering cultures and their handlings did not interfere in the performance of machines under inquiry.

Energetic efficiency of a deep bed swine production system

The aim of this work was to evaluate the energy flows of a commercial production system of swine deep bed in its finishing phase, located in Juiz de Fora, in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Thus, an energy efficiency study was carried out by monitoring a lot of animals, during a 94-day period. The energy rate of each compound involved in the production process was quantified and the matrixes of energy consumption were determined in the form of animal feeding, electrical energy, piglets, material used as deep bed, human labor, equipment, swine buildings, production of alive swine for slaughter, organic fertilizer production (swine deep bed or swine deep litter). From the direct input energy, 80.57% correspond to animal feeding, 11.90% to pigs for slaughter and 6.76% to piglets, while from the energy output 53.45% correspond to the terminating swine and 46.55% to organic fertilizer (swine deep bed). By the results obtained, we can conclude that such production system has corresponded to an industrial and highly specialized agro ecosystem, importing a great part of the energy consumed in the production process, with 41% of energy efficiency.

Energetic analysis of landrace varieties and hybrids of corn produced in different technological levels of management

The aim of this study was to analyze, under the energetic point of view, the cultivation of corn in three management systems (low, medium and high-tech), using two landrace varieties ('Argentino' and 'BR da Várzea'), a double hybrid cultivar (SHS 4080) and a simple hybrid (IAC 8333). Five performance indicators were used: energy efficiency, liquid cultural energy, cultural efficiency, energy balance and productive energy efficiency. From the perspective of family farming, it was verified the largest social importance of the systems under low and medium levels of technology, due to the increase employment capacity of rural labor. The liquid cultural energy and energy balance were more favorable for the system under high technological level, unlike cultural efficiency and productive energy efficiency, which were significantly higher for medium and low technological levels. The variety 'Argentino' showed lower productive energy efficiency. The variety 'BR da Várzea', on the other hand, presented the potential to generate energy as much as the hybrids. In general, the biggest sustainability in the corn crop was achieved when the management system under medium and lower levels of technology were used.