A high-resolution near-infrared extraterrestrial solar spectrum derived from ground-based Fourier transform spectrometer measurements

A detailed spectrally-resolved extraterrestrial solar spectrum (ESS) is important for line-by-line radiative transfer modeling in the near-infrared (near-IR). Very few observationally-based high-resolution ESS are available in this spectral region. Consequently the theoretically-calculated ESS by Kurucz has been widely adopted. We present the CAVIAR (Continuum Absorption at Visible and Infrared Wavelengths and its Atmospheric Relevance) ESS which is derived using the Langley technique applied to calibrated observations using a ground-based high-resolution Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) in atmospheric windows from 2000–10000 cm-1 (1–5 μm). There is good agreement between the strengths and positions of solar lines between the CAVIAR and the satellite-based ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-FTS) ESS, in the spectral region where they overlap, and good agreement with other ground-based FTS measurements in two near-IR windows. However there are significant differences in the structure between the CAVIAR ESS and spectra from semi-empirical models. In addition, we found a difference of up to 8 % in the absolute (and hence the wavelength-integrated) irradiance between the CAVIAR ESS and that of Thuillier et al., which was based on measurements from the Atmospheric Laboratory for Applications and Science satellite and other sources. In many spectral regions, this difference is significant, as the coverage factor k = 2 (or 95 % confidence limit) uncertainties in the two sets of observations do not overlap. Since the total solar irradiance is relatively well constrained, if the CAVIAR ESS is correct, then this would indicate an integrated “loss” of solar irradiance of about 30 W m-2 in the near-IR that would have to be compensated by an increase at other wavelengths.

A reprocessing for climate of sea surface temperature from the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers: initial validation, accounting for skin and diurnal variability

An initial validation of the Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) Reprocessing for Climate (ARC) retrievals of sea surface temperature (SST) is presented. ATSR-2 and Advanced ATSR (AATSR) SST estimates are compared to drifting buoy and moored buoy observations over the period 1995 to 2008. The primary ATSR estimates are of skin SST, whereas buoys measure SST below the surface. Adjustment is therefore made for the skin effect, for diurnal stratification and for differences in buoy–satellite observation time. With such adjustments, satellite-in situ differences are consistent between day and night within ~ 0.01 K. Satellite-in situ differences are correlated with differences in observation time, because of the diurnal warming and cooling of the ocean. The data are used to verify the average behaviour of physical and empirical models of the warming/cooling rates. Systematic differences between adjusted AATSR and in-situ SSTs against latitude, total column water vapour (TCWV), and wind speed are less than 0.1 K, for all except the most extreme cases (TCWV < 5 kg m–2, TCWV > 60 kg m–2). For all types of retrieval except the nadir-only two-channel (N2), regional biases are less than 0.1 K for 80% of the ocean. Global comparison against drifting buoys shows night time dual-view two-channel (D2) SSTs are warm by 0.06 ± 0.23 K and dual-view three-channel (D3) SSTs are warm by 0.06 ± 0.21 K (day-time D2: 0.07 ± 0.23 K). Nadir-only results are N2: 0.03 ± 0.33 K and N3: 0.03 ± 0.19 K showing the improved inter-algorithm consistency to ~ 0.02 K. This represents a marked improvement from the existing operational retrieval algorithms for which inter-algorithm inconsistency is > 0.5 K. Comparison against tropical moored buoys, which are more accurate than drifting buoys, gives lower error estimates (N3: 0.02 ± 0.13 K, D2: 0.03 ± 0.18 K). Comparable results are obtained for ATSR-2, except that the ATSR-2 SSTs are around 0.1 K warm compared to AATSR

On the clustering of winter storm loss events over Germany

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series for Germany are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Two reanalysis data sets and observations from German weather stations are considered for 30 winters. Histograms of events exceeding selected return levels (1-, 2- and 5-year) are derived. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Over 4000 years of general circulation model (GCM) simulations forced with current climate conditions are analysed to provide a better assessment of historical return periods. Estimations differ between distributions, for example 40 to 65 years for the 1990 series. For such less frequent series, estimates obtained with the Poisson distribution clearly deviate from empirical data. The negative binomial distribution provides better estimates, even though a sensitivity to return level and data set is identified. The consideration of GCM data permits a strong reduction of uncertainties. The present results support the importance of considering explicitly clustering of losses for an adequate risk assessment for economical applications.

Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts

Simulation models are widely employed to make probability forecasts of future conditions on seasonal to annual lead times. Added value in such forecasts is reflected in the information they add, either to purely empirical statistical models or to simpler simulation models. An evaluation of seasonal probability forecasts from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction (DEMETER) and ENSEMBLES multi-model ensemble experiments is presented. Two particular regions are considered: Nino3.4 in the Pacific and the Main Development Region in the Atlantic; these regions were chosen before any spatial distribution of skill was examined. The ENSEMBLES models are found to have skill against the climatological distribution on seasonal time-scales. For models in ENSEMBLES that have a clearly defined predecessor model in DEMETER, the improvement from DEMETER to ENSEMBLES is discussed. Due to the long lead times of the forecasts and the evolution of observation technology, the forecast-outcome archive for seasonal forecast evaluation is small; arguably, evaluation data for seasonal forecasting will always be precious. Issues of information contamination from in-sample evaluation are discussed and impacts (both positive and negative) of variations in cross-validation protocol are demonstrated. Other difficulties due to the small forecast-outcome archive are identified. The claim that the multi-model ensemble provides a ‘better’ probability forecast than the best single model is examined and challenged. Significant forecast information beyond the climatological distribution is also demonstrated in a persistence probability forecast. The ENSEMBLES probability forecasts add significantly more information to empirical probability forecasts on seasonal time-scales than on decadal scales. Current operational forecasts might be enhanced by melding information from both simulation models and empirical models. Simulation models based on physical principles are sometimes expected, in principle, to outperform empirical models; direct comparison of their forecast skill provides information on progress toward that goal.

Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation

The evaluation of forecast performance plays a central role both in the interpretation and use of forecast systems and in their development. Different evaluation measures (scores) are available, often quantifying different characteristics of forecast performance. The properties of several proper scores for probabilistic forecast evaluation are contrasted and then used to interpret decadal probability hindcasts of global mean temperature. The Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), Proper Linear (PL) score, and IJ Good’s logarithmic score (also referred to as Ignorance) are compared; although information from all three may be useful, the logarithmic score has an immediate interpretation and is not insensitive to forecast busts. Neither CRPS nor PL is local; this is shown to produce counter intuitive evaluations by CRPS. Benchmark forecasts from empirical models like Dynamic Climatology place the scores in context. Comparing scores for forecast systems based on physical models (in this case HadCM3, from the CMIP5 decadal archive) against such benchmarks is more informative than internal comparison systems based on similar physical simulation models with each other. It is shown that a forecast system based on HadCM3 out performs Dynamic Climatology in decadal global mean temperature hindcasts; Dynamic Climatology previously outperformed a forecast system based upon HadGEM2 and reasons for these results are suggested. Forecasts of aggregate data (5-year means of global mean temperature) are, of course, narrower than forecasts of annual averages due to the suppression of variance; while the average “distance” between the forecasts and a target may be expected to decrease, little if any discernible improvement in probabilistic skill is achieved.

Accrual-based and real earnings management before and after IFRS adoption: the case of Greece

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the use of accrual-based vs real earnings management (EM) by Greek firms, before and after the mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The research is motivated by the fact that past studies have indicated the existence of significant levels of EM for Greece in particular before IFRS. Design/methodology/approach – Accrual-based earnings management (AEM) is examined by assessing performance-adjusted discretionary accruals, while real earnings management (REM) is defined in terms of abnormal levels of production costs, discretionary expenses, and cash flows from operations, for a three-year period before and after the adoption of IFRS in 2005. Findings – The authors find evidence on a statistically significant shift from AEM to REM after the adoption of IFRS, indicating the replacement of one form of EM with the other. Research limitations/implications – The validity of the results depends on the ability of the empirical models used to efficiently capture the existence of AEM and REM. Practical implications – IFRS adoption aims to improve accounting quality, especially in countries with high need for such an improvement; however, the tendency to substitute one form of EM with another highlights unintended consequences of IFRS adoption, which do not improve the informational content of financial statements if EM continues under different forms. Originality/value – Under the expectation that IFRS adoption should lead to improvements in accounting quality, this study examines whether IFRS actually led to a reduction of EM practices for a country with exceptionally high levels of EM before IFRS, by accounting for all possible forms of EM.

Influence of Fluid Concentration on the Elevation of Boiling Point of Blackberry Juice

The rise in boiling point of blackberry juice was experimentally measured at soluble solids concentrations in the range of 9.4 to 58.4Brix and pressures between 4.9 103 and 9.0 104 Pa (abs.). Different approaches to representing experimental data, including the Duhring`s rule, a model similar to Antoine equation and other empirical models proposed in the literature were tested. In the range of 9.4 to 33.6Brix, the rise in boiling point was nearly independent of pressure, varying only with juice concentration. Considerable deviations of this behavior began to occur at concentrations higher than 39.1Brix. Experimental data could be best predicted by adjusting an empirical model, which consists of a single equation that takes into account the dependence of rise in boiling point on pressure and concentration.

Modeling hourly and daily fractions of UV, PAR and NIR to global solar radiation under various sky conditions at Botucatu, Brazil

In this analysis, using available hourly and daily radiometric data performed at Botucatu, Brazil, several empirical models relating ultraviolet (UV), photosynthetically active (PAR) and near infrared (NIR) solar global components with solar global radiation (G) are established. These models are developed and discussed through clearness index K(T) (ratio of the global-to-extraterrestrial solar radiation). Results obtained reveal that the proposed empirical models predict hourly and daily values accurately. Finally. the overall analysis carried Out demonstrates that the sky conditions are more important in developing correlation models between the UV component and the global solar radiation. The linear regression models derived to estimate PAR and NIR components may be obtained without sky condition considerations within a maximum variation of 8%. In the case of UV, not taking into consideration the sky condition may cause a discrepancy of up to 18% for hourly values and 15% for daily values. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efeitos do tratamento superficial da sílica ativa com soluções de ácidos nítrico e fosfórico em propriedades do concreto

The addition of active silica potentially improves the quality of concrete due to its high reactivity and pore refinement effect. The reactivity of silica is likely related to its charge density. Variations in surface charge alter the reactivity of the material consequently affecting the properties of concrete. The present study aimed at investigating variations in the charge density of silica as a function of acid treatments using nitric or phosphoric acid and different pH values (2.0, 4.0 and 6.0). Effects on concrete properties including slump, mechanical strength, permeability and chloride corrosion were evaluated. To that end, a statistical analysis was carried out and empirical models that correlate studied parameters (pH, acid and cement) with concrete properties were established. The quality of the models was tested by variance analysis. The results revealed that the addition of silica was efficiency in improving the properties of concrete, especially the electrochemical parameters. The addition of silica treated using nitric acid at pH = 4.0 displayed the best cement performance including highest strength, reduced permeability and lowest corrosion current

Laminados compósitos de PRFV: efeitos da descontinuidade geométrica e do envelhecimento ambiental acelerado

The growing demand in the use of composite materials necessitates a better understanding of its behavior related to many conditions of loading and service, as well as under several ways of connections involved in mechanisms of structural projects. Within these project conditions are highlighted the presence of geometrical discontinuities in the area of cross and longitudinal sections of structural elements and environmental conditions of work like UV radiation, moisture, heat, leading to a decrease in final mechanical response of the material. In this sense, this thesis aims to develop studies detailed (experimental and semi-empirical models) the effects caused by the presence of geometric discontinuity, more specifically, a central hole in the longitudinal section (with reduced cross section) and the influence of accelerated environmental aging on the mechanical properties and fracture mechanism of FGRP composite laminates under the action of uniaxial tensile loads. Studies on morphological behavior and structural degradation of composite laminates are performed by macroscopic and microscopic analysis of affected surfaces, in addition to evaluation by the Measurement technique for mass variation (TMVM). The accelerated environmental aging conditions are simulated by aging chamber. To study the simultaneous influence of aging/geometric discontinuity in the mechanical properties of composite laminates, a semiempirical model is proposed and called IE/FCPM Model. For the stress concentration due to the central hole, an analisys by failures criteria were performed by Average-Stress Criterion (ASC) and Point-Stress Criterion (PSC). Two polymeric composite laminates, manufactured industrially were studied: the first is only reinforced by short mats of fiberglass-E (LM) and the second where the reinforced by glass fiber/E comes in the form of bidirectional fabric (LT). In the conception configurations of laminates the anisotropy is crucial to the final mechanical response of the same. Finally, a comparative study of all parameters was performed for a better understanding of the results. How conclusive study, the characteristics of the final fracture of the laminate under all conditions that they were subjected, were analyzed. These analyzes were made at the macroscopic level (scanner) microscope (optical and scanning electron). At the end of the analyzes, it was observed that the degradation process occurs similarly for each composite researched, however, the LM composite compared to composite LT (configurations LT 0/90º and LT ±45º) proved to be more susceptible to loss of mechanical properties in both regarding with the central hole as well to accelerated environmental aging

Friction factors, convective heat transfer coefficients and the Colburn analogy for industrial sugarcane juices

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Influence of Fluid Concentration on the Elevation of Boiling Point of Blackberry Juice

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Thermodynamic properties of water sorption of jackfruit (Artocarpus heterophyllus Lam.) as a function of moisture content

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Study of the enthalpy-entropy mechanism from water sorption of orange seeds (C. sinensis cv. Brazilian) for the use of agro-industrial residues as a possible source of vegetable oil production

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Changes of density, thermal conductivity, thermal diffusivity, and specific heat of plums during drying

The thermal properties of plums (Prunus domestica) and prunes were investigated in the moisture content of 14.2-80.4% (wet basis) near room temperature (approximately 28 degrees C). The apparent density of the fruits increased from 1042.9 to 1460.0 kg/m(3), and the bulk density increased from 706.6 to 897.5 kg/m(3) as the plums were dried, following classical empirical models as a function of moisture content. It was found that specific heat, effective thermal diffusivity, and effective thermal conductivity of the prunes increased with the moisture content of the samples, which can be represented by using different empirical models.