A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers’ consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed.

A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers’ consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed.

A Bayesian Semiparametric Approach for Solving the Discrete Calibration Problem

In this article, we introduce a semi-parametric Bayesian approach based on Dirichlet process priors for the discrete calibration problem in binomial regression models. An interesting topic is the dosimetry problem related to the dose-response model. A hierarchical formulation is provided so that a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach is developed. The methodology is applied to simulated and real data.

Risk of Giardia infection for drinking water and bathing in a peri-urban area in Sao Paulo, Brazil

A high incidence of waterborne diseases is observed worldwide and in order to address contamination problems prior to an outbreak, quantitative microbial risk assessment is a useful tool for estimating the risk of infection. The objective of this paper was to assess the probability of Giardia infection from consuming water from shallow wells in a peri-urban area. Giardia has been described as an important waterborne pathogen and reported in several water sources, including ground waters. Sixteen water samples were collected and examined according to the US EPA (1623, 2005). A Monte Carlo method was used to address the potential risk as described by the exponential dose response model. Giardia cysts occurred in 62.5% of the samples (0.1-36.1 cysts/l). A median risk of 10-1 for the population was estimated and the adult ingestion was the highest risk driver. This study illustrates the vulnerability of shallow well water supply systems in peri-urban areas.

Pedal : identification of models for duodenal administration of levodopa

Backgound and aims: The main purpose of the PEDAL study is to identify and estimate sample individual pharmacokinetic- pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models for duodenal infusion of levodopa/carbidopa (Duodopa®) that can be used for in numero simulation of treatment strategies. Other objectives are to study the absorption of Duodopa® and to form a basis for power calculation for a future larger study. PK/PD based on oral levodopa is problematic because of irregular gastric emptying. Preliminary work with data from [Gundert-Remy U et al. Eur J Clin Pharmacol 1983;25:69-72] suggested that levodopa infusion pharmacokinetics can be described by a two-compartment model. Background research led to a hypothesis for an effect model incorporating concentration-unrelated fluctuations, more complex than standard E-max models. Methods: PEDAL involved a few patients already on Duodopa®. A bolus dose (normal morning dose plus 50%) was given after a washout during night. Data collection continued until the clinical effect was back at baseline. The procedure was repeated on two non-consecutive days per patient. The following data were collected in 5 to 15 minutes intervals: i) Accelerometer data. ii) Three e-diary questions about ability to walk, feelings of “off” and “dyskinesia”. iii) Clinical assessment of motor function by a physician. iv) Plasma concentrations of levodopa, carbidopa and the metabolite 3-O-methyldopa. The main effect variable will be the clinical assessment. Results: At date of abstract submission, lab analyses were currently being performed. Modelling results, simulation experiments and conclusions will be presented in our poster.

Modelos para estimar as exigências de lisina digestível para poedeiras comerciais

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Ocorrência e caracterização de Giardia e Cryptosporidium em águas captadas para abastecimento público no município de Cajamar-SP e avaliação do risco

Introdução: O risco à saúde humana ocasionado pela contaminação biológica de águas captadas para abastecimento público é realçado pela ocorrência de surtos de doenças associadas aos protozoários Giardia e Cryptosporidium, que possuem baixas doses infecciosas e alta capacidade de sobrevivência no ambiente, além de serem capazes de resistir ao processo tradicional de desinfecção da água (cloração). Partindo-se da hipótese de que há um risco elevado de infecção por estes protozoários pela ingestão de água tratada por métodos convencionais e que fazem uso de mananciais superficiais impactados por contaminação biológica, resultando num possível incremento da incidência de diarréias, este estudo se propôs a verificar a ocorrência destes protozoários em águas captadas para abastecimento público no município de Cajamar-SP, caracterizar sua patogenicidade e avaliar o risco associado ao seu consumo através da água tratada. Métodos: Foram coletadas 48 amostras do ribeirão dos Cristais no ponto de captação da estação de tratamento de água, semanalmente, durante 12 meses (de 16/05/2013 a 21/05/2014). A detecção e a análise da concentração dos protozoários foram realizadas de acordo com Método 1623.1 da United States Environmental Protection Agency e a extração e caracterização dos espécies/genótipos de Giardia e Cryptosporidium foi realizada através metodologias moleculares e seqüenciamento. O risco de infecção pela ingestão de cistos de Giardia e oocistos de Cryptosporidium presentes na água tratada foi calculado usando a ferramenta da Avaliação Quantitativa do Risco Microbiológico, a partir dos dados de concentração dos patógenos obtidos pelo Método 1623.1, eficiência de remoção dos (oo)cistos durante o processo convencional de tratamento da água, modelo dose-resposta e taxa de ingestão diária de água para indivíduos menores de 5 anos e maiores de 21 anos. Resultados: Cistos de Giardia foram detectados em 83,3% das amostras (40/48), com concentrações variando desde o limite de detecção (<0,1) até 8,6 cistos/L. Oocistos de Cryptosporidium foram etectados em 37,5% das amostras (18/48), com concentrações variando desde o limite de detecção (<0,1) até 2 oocistos/L. As espécies/genótipos encontrados (Giardia intestinalis A e B e Cryptosporidium parvum e hominis) são característicos de contaminação antrópica e são frequentemente identificados em estudos epidemiológicos como responsáveis por surtos. A estimativa do risco anual de infecção por Giardia foi de 3,3x10-3 (IC95% 4,6x10-3) para crianças e de 11,5x10-3 (IC95% 13,3x10-3) para adultos, enquanto o risco por Cryptosporidium foi de 1,1x10-3 (IC95% 1,7x10-3) para crianças e de 3,9x10-3 (IC95% 5,0x10-3) para adultos. O incremento da incidência de diarréias foi observado no cenário de estudo após um acidente que resultou em transbordamento de esgotos não tratados no manancial, coincidindo com o aumento na detecção de (oo)cistos. Conclusão: Os resultados evidenciaram que a vulnerabilidade do ribeirão dos Cristais a contaminações biológicas pode culminar em um risco elevado de infecção e adoecimento por Giardia e Cryptosporidium através da ingestão de água tratada. Portanto, o caso é preocupante, tanto do ponto de vista do tratamento e abastecimento de água potável, quanto da degradação e contaminação do manancial, evidenciando a necessidade de se estabelecer medidas de intervenção direcionadas a promover a qualidade da água e garantir sua segurança

Design of long-term animal bioassay for low-dose extrapolation using a multistage model

Conventional designs of animal bioassays allocate the same number of animals into control and dose groups to explore the spontaneous and induced tumor incidence rates, respectively. The purpose of such bioassays are (a) to determine whether or not the substance exhibits carcinogenic properties, and (b) if so, to estimate the human response at relatively low doses. In this study, it has been found that the optimal allocation to the experimental groups which, in some sense, minimize the error of the estimated response for low dose extrapolation is associated with the dose level and tumor risk. The number of dose levels has been investigated at the affordable experimental cost. The pattern of the administered dose, 1 MTD, 1/2 MTD, 1/4 MTD,....., etc. plus control, gives the most reasonable arrangement for the low dose extrapolation purpose. The arrangement of five dose groups may make the highest dose trivial. A four-dose design can circumvent this problem and has also one degree of freedom for testing the goodness-of-fit of the response model.^ An example using the data on liver tumors induced in mice in a lifetime study of feeding dieldrin (Walker et al., 1973) is implemented with the methodology. The results are compared with conclusions drawn from other studies. ^

Modification of the in vivo four-point loading model for studying mechanically induced bone adaptation

We modified the noninvasive, in vivo technique for strain application in the tibiae of rats (Turner et al,, Bone 12:73-79, 1991), The original model applies four-point bending to right tibiae via an open-loop, stepper-motor-driven spring linkage, Depending on the magnitude of applied load, the model produces new bone formation at periosteal (Ps) or endocortical surfaces (Ec.S). Due to the spring linkage, however, the range of frequencies at which loads can be applied is limited. The modified system replaces this design with an electromagnetic vibrator. A load transducer in series with the loading points allows calibration, the loaders' position to be adjusted, and cyclic loading completed under load central as a closed servo-loop. Two experiments were conducted to validate the modified system: (1) a strain gauge was applied to the lateral surface of the right tibia of 5 adult female rats and strains measured at applied loads from 10 to 60 N; and (2) the bone formation response was determined in 28 adult female Sprague-Dawley rats. Loading was applied as a haversine wave with a frequency of 2 Hz for 18 sec, every second day for 10 days. Peak bending loads mere applied at 33, 40, 52, and 64 N, and a sham-loading group tr as included at 64 N, Strains in the tibiae were linear between 10 and 60 N, and the average peak strain at the Ps.S at 60 N was 2664 +/- 250 microstrain, consistent with the results of Turner's group. Lamellar bone formation was stimulated at the Ec.S by applied bending, but not by sham loading. Bending strains above a loading threshold of 40 N increased Ec Lamellar hone formation rate, bone forming surface, and mineral apposition rate with a dose response similar to that reported by Turner et al, (J Bone Miner Res 9:87-97, 1994). We conclude that the modified loading system offers precision for applied loads of between 0 and 70 N, versatility in the selection of loading rates up to 20 Hz, and a reproducible bone formation response in the rat tibia, Adjustment of the loader also enables study of mechanical usage in murine tibia, an advantage with respect to the increasing variety of transgenic strains available in bone and mineral research. (Bone 23:307-310; 1998) (C) 1998 by Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

A control flow prototype for a dose recommending device for chronic myeloid leukemia patients

In this paper we present a prototype of a control flow for an a posteriori drug dose adaptation for Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (CML) patients. The control flow is modeled using Timed Automata extended with Tasks (TAT) model. The feedback loop of the control flow includes the decision-making process for drug dose adaptation. This is based on the outputs of the body response model represented by the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm for drug concentration prediction. The decision is further checked for conformity with the dose level rules of a medical guideline. We also have developed an automatic code synthesizer for the icycom platform as an extension of the TIMES tool.

Influence of IL28B polymorphisms on response to a lower-than-standard dose peg-IFN-α 2a for genotype 3 chronic hepatitis C in HIV-coinfected patients.

BACKGROUND Data on which to base definitive recommendations on the doses and duration of therapy for genotype 3 HCV/HIV-coinfected patients are scarce. We evaluated the efficacy of a lower peginterferon-α 2a dose and a shorter duration of therapy than the current standard of care in genotype 3 HCV/HIV-coinfected patients. METHODS AND FINDINGS Pilot, open-label, single arm clinical trial which involved 58 Caucasian HCV/HIV-coinfected patients who received weekly 135 µg peginterferon-α 2a plus ribavirin 400 mg twice daily during 20 weeks after attaining undetectable viremia. The relationships between baseline patient-related variables, including IL28B genotype, plasma HCV-RNA, ribavirin dose/kg, peginterferon-α 2a and ribavirin levels with virological responses were analyzed. Only 4 patients showed lack of response and 5 patients dropped out due to adverse events related to the study medication. Overall, sustained virologic response (SVR) rates were 58.3% by intention-to-treat and 71.4% by per protocol analysis, respectively. Among patients with rapid virologic response (RVR), SVR and relapses rates were 92.6% and 7.4%, respectively. No relationships were observed between viral responses and ribavirin dose/kg, peginterferon-α 2a concentrations, ribavirin levels or rs129679860 genotype. CONCLUSIONS Weekly 135 µg pegIFN-α 2a could be as effective as the standard 180 µg dose, with a very low incidence of severe adverse events. A 24-week treatment duration appears to be appropriate in patients achieving RVR, but extending treatment up to just 20 weeks beyond negativization of viremia is associated with a high relapse rate in those patients not achieving RVR. There was no influence of IL28B genotype on the virological responses.

Dose-dependent influence of didanosine on immune recovery in HIV-infected patients treated with tenofovir.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) containing tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) and didanosine (ddI) has been associated with poor immune recovery despite virologic success. This effect might be related to ddI toxicity since ddI exposure is substantially increased by TDF. OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether immune recovery during ART with TDF and ddI is ddI-dose dependent. DESIGN AND METHODS: A retrospective longitudinal analysis of immune recovery measured by the CD4 T-cell slope in 614 patients treated with ART containing TDF with or without ddI. Patients were stratified according to the tertiles of their weight-adjusted ddI dose: low dose (< 3.3 mg/kg), intermediate dose (3.3-4.1 mg/kg) and high dose (> 4.1 mg/kg). Cofactors modifying the degree of immune recovery after starting TDF-containing ART were identified by univariable and multivariable linear regression analyses. RESULTS: CD4 T-cell slopes were comparable between patients treated with TDF and a weight-adjusted ddI-dose of < 4.1 mg/kg per day (n = 143) versus TDF-without-ddI (n = 393). In the multivariable model the slopes differed by -13 CD4 T cells/mul per year [95% confidence interval (CI), -42 to 17; P = 0.40]. In contrast, patients treated with TDF and a higher ddI dose (> 4.1 mg/kg per day, n = 78) experienced a significantly impaired immune recovery (-47 CD4 T cells/microl per year; 95% CI, -82 to -12; P = 0.009). The virologic response was comparable between the different treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: Immune recovery is impaired, when high doses of ddI (> 4.1 mg/kg) are given in combination with TDF. If the dose of ddI is adjusted to less than 4.1 mg/kg per day, immune recovery is similar to other TDF-containing ART regimen.

Ultramarathon is an outstanding model for the study of adaptive responses to extreme load and stress.

ABSTRACT: Ultramarathons comprise any sporting event involving running longer than the traditional marathon length of 42.195 km (26.2 miles). Studies on ultramarathon participants can investigate the acute consequences of ultra-endurance exercise on inflammation and cardiovascular or renal consequences, as well as endocrine/energetic aspects, and examine the tissue recovery process over several days of extreme physical load. In a study published in BMC Medicine, Schütz et al. followed 44 ultramarathon runners over 4,487 km from South Italy to North Cape, Norway (the Trans Europe Foot Race 2009) and recorded daily sets of data from magnetic resonance imaging, psychometric, body composition and biological measurements. The findings will allow us to better understand the timecourse of degeneration/regeneration of some lower leg tissues such as knee joint cartilage, to differentiate running-induced from age-induced pathologies (for example, retropatelar arthritis) and finally to assess the interindividual susceptibility to injuries. Moreover, it will also provide new information about the complex interplay between cerebral adaptations/alterations and hormonal influences resulting from endurance exercise and provide data on the dose-response relationship between exercise and brain structure/function. Overall, this study represents a unique attempt to investigate the limits of the adaptive response of human bodies.Please see related article: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/10/78.

The influence of Bone Morphogenic Protein-2 on the consolidation phase in a distraction osteogenesis model.

We asked whether locally applied recombinant-Bone Morphogenic Protein-2 (rh-BMP-2) with an absorbable Type I collagen sponge (ACS) carrier could enhance the consolidation phase in a callotasis model. We performed unilateral transverse osteotomy of the tibia in 21 immature male rabbits. After a latency period of 7 days, a 3-weeks distraction was begun at a rate of 0.5mm/12h. At the end of the distraction period (Day 28) animals were randomly divided into three groups and underwent a second surgical procedure: 6 rabbits in Group I (Control group; the callus was exposed and nothing was added), 6 rabbits in Group II (ACS group; receiving the absorbable collagen sponge soaked with saline) and 9 rabbits in Group III (rh-BMP-2/ACS group; receiving the ACS soaked with 100μg/kg of rh-BMP-2, Inductos(®), Medtronic). Starting at Day 28 we assessed quantitative and qualitative radiographic parameters as well as densitometric parameters every two weeks (Days 28, 42, 56, 70 and 84). Animals were sacrificed after 8 weeks of consolidation (Day 84). Qualitative radiographic evaluation revealed hypertrophic calluses in the Group III animals. The rh-BMP-2/ACS also influenced the development of the cortex of the calluses as shown by the modified radiographic patterns in Group III when compared to Groups I and II. Densitometric analysis revealed the bone mineral content (BMC) was significantly higher in the rh-BMP-2/ACS treated animals (Group III).

Variability of a peripheral dose among various linac geometries for second cancer risk assessment.

Second cancer risk assessment for radiotherapy is controversial due to the large uncertainties of the dose-response relationship. This could be improved by a better assessment of the peripheral doses to healthy organs in future epidemiological studies. In this framework, we developed a simple Monte Carlo (MC) model of the Siemens Primus 6 MV linac for both open and wedged fields that we then validated with dose profiles measured in a water tank up to 30 cm from the central axis. The differences between the measured and calculated doses were comparable to other more complex MC models and never exceeded 50%. We then compared our simple MC model with the peripheral dose profiles of five different linacs with different collimation systems. We found that the peripheral dose between two linacs could differ up to a factor of 9 for small fields (5 × 5 cm(2)) and up to a factor of 10 for wedged fields. Considering that an uncertainty of 50% in dose estimation could be acceptable in the context of risk assessment, the MC model can be used as a generic model for large open fields (≥10 × 10 cm(2)) only. The uncertainties in peripheral doses should be considered in future epidemiological studies when designing the width of the dose bins to stratify the risk as a function of the dose.