Asymptotic skewness in Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models

The family of distributions proposed by Birnbaum and Saunders (1969) can be used to model lifetime data and it is widely applicable to model failure times of fatiguing materials. We give a simple matrix formula of order n(-1/2), where n is the sample size, for the skewness of the distributions of the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models, recently introduced by Lemonte and Cordeiro (2009). The formula is quite suitable for computer implementation, since it involves only simple operations on matrices and vectors, in order to obtain closed-form skewness in a wide range of nonlinear regression models. Empirical and real applications are analyzed and discussed. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using artificial neural networks for identification of electrical losses in transformers during the manufacturing phase

The paper describes a novel neural model to estimate electrical losses in transformer during the manufacturing phase. The network acts as an identifier of structural features on electrical loss process, so that output parameters can be estimated and generalized from an input parameter set. The model was trained and assessed through experimental data taking into account core losses, copper losses, resistance, current and temperature. The results obtained in the simulations have shown that the developed technique can be used as an alternative tool to make the analysis of electrical losses on distribution transformer more appropriate regarding to manufacturing process. Thus, this research has led to an improvement on the rational use of energy.

A neural approach to evaluate the effect of lightning in power transformers

This paper proposes the application of computational intelligence techniques to assist complex problems concerning lightning in transformers. In order to estimate the currents related to lightning in a transformer, a neural tool is presented. ATP has generated the training vectors. The input variables used in Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were the wave front time, the wave tail time, the voltage variation rate and the output variable is the maximum current in the secondary of the transformer. These parameters can define the behavior and severity of lightning. Based on these concepts and from the results obtained, it can be verified that the overvoltages at the secondary of transformer are also affected by the discharge waveform in a similar way to the primary side. By using the tool developed, the high voltage process in the distribution transformers can be mapped and estimated with more precision aiding the transformer project process, minimizing empirics and evaluation errors, and contributing to minimize the failure rate of transformers. © 2009 The Berkeley Electronic Press. All rights reserved.

Cálculo das perdas técnicas dos transformadores de distribuição, operando em ambiente não-senoidal

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Modelagem de transformadores de núcleo amorfo usando método de elementos finitos

Os materiais amorfos vêm ganhando grande espaço na indústria de transformadores, devido às baixas perdas no núcleo, visto que estes possuem um ciclo de histerese mais estreito quando comparados com os núcleos tradicionais de aço silício. Entretanto, seu custo ainda tem sido um grande fator para pouca inserção deste tipo de equipamento nos sistemas elétricos de potência. Estudos sobre o custo/benefício em termos técnicos de desempenho e robustez devem ser considerados quando se deseja projetar transformadores que utilizam esse tipo de material. A grande contribuição deste trabalho encontra-se na análise do desempenho do transformador de núcleo amorfo diante de curtos-circuitos, visto que tais falhas neste equipamento ocasionam redução da receita, não apenas por gastos com manutenção, mas também porque a concessionária deixa de vender seu produto, energia elétrica, além de poder estar sujeita a penalidades por parte dos órgãos de regulação do setor elétrico. Quando em condições de curto-circuito os enrolamentos dos transformadores ficam submetidos a esforços mecânicos, produzidos por forças de Lorentz, essas forças surgem como resultado do fluxo produzido pelos próprios condutores em paralelo que transportam corrente na mesma direção. Diante disso, estudar o comportamento eletromagnético do transformador é fundamental para obtenção de tais forças. Para o desenvolvimento deste trabalho, utilizou-se o software Finite Element Method Magnetics (FEMM). Esta ferramenta se baseia no método de elementos finitos para realizar os cálculos das magnitudes eletromecânicas e, consequentemente, o cálculo das forças atuando nas espiras, as quais permitem realizar os cálculos dos esforços mecânicos. Por fim, este trabalho aborda a aplicação da ferramenta FEMM para o cálculo de esforços mecânicos e simulação do comportamento eletromagnético de um transformador de distribuição.

Pulsing With Low Concentration Gibberellin Plus Benzyladenine or Commercial Floral Preservatives Affect Postharvest Longevity, Quality, and Leaf Chlorosis of Cut Lilies and Gladioli

Effects of pulsing with different concentrations of gibberellin plus benzyladenine (GA(4+7) + BA), a proprietary mixture of GA(4+7) plus BA in a commercial floral preservative (GA(4+7) + BA + preservative), or a propriety mixture of sugar plus acidifier developed for bulbous flowers (floral bulb preservative) were studied on postharvest performance and quality of cut lily (Lilium hybrids) and gladiolus ( Gladiolus hybrids) flowers. Pulsing of cut stems of lily with GA(4+7) + BA at 5 or 2 mL.L-1 GA(4+7) + BA + preservative for 20 hours at 3 +/- 1 degrees C extended the vase life and controlled leaf chlorosis of 'Cobra'oriental lily and 'Cappuccino'and Pot Corn'asiatic lily. Cut 'Orange Art'asiatic lily performed best when pulsed with GA(4+7) + BA at 10 mg.L-1. For cut gladiolus, pulsing with GA(4+7) + BA at 10 mg.L-1 extended the vase life of 'Alice', 'Mammoth', and 'Passion', while 'Scarlet'had the longest vase life when pulsed with 5 mg.L-1 GA(4+7) + BA. GA(4+7) + BA + preservative also extended the vase life and controlled leaf chlorosis, but the floral bulb preservative had no effect on vase life extension or preventing leaf chlorosis of lilies. Gladiolus cultivars had no or minor leaf chlorosis during vase period. Overall, overnight pulsing with GA(4+7) + BA + or GA(4+7) + BA + preservative extended the vase life and prevented leaf chlorosis

Suicídio de idosos e mídia: o que dizem as notícias?

Como a mídia aborda o suicídio de idosos? E o que as notícias sobre suicídio de idosos nos dizem? Estas foram as perguntas que guiaram esta reflexão, que se debruçou sobre matérias de suicídios de idosos publicadas na mídia nacional, entre abril de 2010 e abril de 2013. Observamos que a palavra “suicídio”, até pouco tempo atrás “aquela-que-não-deveria-ser-nomeada” na imprensa, aparece na maior parte das notícias, no título e nos textos, demonstrando que o suicídio, como problema de saúde pública, afasta-se do campo privado para ocupar e compor o espaço público. Constatamos que entre as principais situações de risco que levam os idosos a cometer um “gesto de comunicação” extremo estão os efeitos de uma política econômica recessiva e o prolongamento da vida sem dignidade, mediante o medo da dependência e do provável “trabalho” aos demais; situações que indicam serem essenciais o desenvolvimento e o fortalecimento das redes de suporte social.

A log-Birnbaum-Saunders regression model with asymmetric errors

This paper introduces a skewed log-Birnbaum-Saunders regression model based on the skewed sinh-normal distribution proposed by Leiva et al. [A skewed sinh-normal distribution and its properties and application to air pollution, Comm. Statist. Theory Methods 39 (2010), pp. 426-443]. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and generalized leverage, are presented. Additionally, we derived the normal curvatures of local influence under some perturbation schemes. An empirical application to a real data set is presented in order to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model.

Composição, diversidade e distribuição geográfica de plantas vasculares de uma Floresta Ombrófila Densa Atlântica do Sudeste do Brasil

In the Montane and Submontane Rain Forest of the Carlos Botelho State Park - PECB (ca. 37,000 ha) the composition, richness and geographical distribution of native, vascular forest species was evaluated. The analysis of 1143 species of 140 families supported the pattern found for other forests of Eastern Brazil, showing high species richness of Myrtaceae (85 species), Orchidaceae (81), Fabaceae (57), Asteraceae, Melastomataceae (54), Lauraceae (53), Rubiaceae (51), Bromeliaceae (43), Piperaceae (30) and Solanaceae (25), besides ferns (123). The most species-rich genera were Eugenia (34), Ocotea (26), Leandra, Myrcia, Vriesea (18), Piper, Solanum (16), Miconia (14), Mollinedia (13), and Peperomia (12). The richness and composition varied greatly among life forms, as well as the number of families represented in each one of them (only Rubiaceae had species in all life forms, except parasites). Trees had the largest contribution of total richness (39.1%), a value that represented more than 20% of the species listed for the whole Atlantic Forest of Southeastern Brazil. Trees were followed by epiphytes (22.4%), herbs (18.4%), shrubs (10.1%), lianas (9.1%), and parasites (0.9%). The overall richness and composition of life forms was quite close to other neotropical forests (e.g. high contribution of ferns among epiphytes), although some life forms remain undersampled in the PECB (mainly herbs, lianas and epiphytes). The occurrence of species endemic to the Atlantic Forest was pronounced (65%), with a predominance of species restricted to the Southern Atlantic Forest (43%). Pantropical species were rare (2%), being more common among ferns. Myrtaceae and Melastomataceae were the families with greater number and proportion of endemic species.

Weathering of Fe-bearing minerals under extraterrestrial conditions, investigated by Mössbauer spectroscopy

The weathering of Fe-bearing minerals under extraterrestrial conditions was investigated by Mössbauer (MB) spectroscopy to gain insights into the role of water on the planet Mars. The NASA Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit and Opportunity each carry a miniaturized Mössbauer spectrometer MIMOS II for the in situ investigation of Martian soils and rocks as part of their payload. The MER flight instruments had to be modified in order to work over the Martian diurnal temperature range (180 K – 290 K) and within the unique electronic environment of the rovers. The modification required special calibration procedures. The integration time necessary to obtain a good quality Mössbauer spectrum with the MIMOS II flight instruments was reduced by 30 % through the design of a new collimator. The in situ investigation of rocks along the rover Spirit's traverse in Gusev crater revealed weakly altered olivine basalt on the plains and pervasively altered basalt in the Columbia Hills. Correlation plots of primary Fe-bearing minerals identified by MB spectroscopy such as olivine versus secondary Fe-bearing phases such as nanophase Fe oxides showed that olivine is the mineral which is primarily involved in weathering reactions. This argues for a reduced availability of water. Identification of the Fe-oxyhydroxide goethite in the Columbia Hills is unequivocal evidence for aqueous weathering processes in the Columbia Hills. Experiments in which mineral powders were exposed to components of the Martian atmosphere showed that interaction with the atmosphere alone, in the absence of liquid water, is sufficient to oxidize Martian surface materials. The fine-grained dust suspended in the Martian atmosphere may have been altered solely by gas-solid reactions. Fresh and altered specimens of Martian meteorites were investigated with MIMOS II. The study of Martian meteorites in the lab helped to identify in Bounce Rock the first rock on Mars which is similar in composition to basaltic shergottites, a subgroup of the Martian meteorites. The field of astrobiology includes the study of the origin, evolution and distribution of life in the universe. Water is a prerequisite for life. The MER Mössbauer spectrometers identified aqueous minerals such as jarosite and goethite. The identification of jarosite was crucial to evaluate the habitability of Opportunity's landing site at Meridiani Planum during the formation of the sedimentary outcrop rocks, because jarosite puts strong constrains on pH levels. The identification of olivine in rocks and soils on the Gusev crater plains provide evidence for the sparsity of water under current conditions on Mars. Ratios of Fe2+/Fe3+ were obtained with Mössbauer spectroscopy from basaltic glass samples which were exposed at a deep sea hydrothermal vent. The ratios were used as a measure of potential energy for use by a microbial community. Samples from Mars analogue field sites on Earth exhibiting morphological biosignatures were also investigated.

Amphibian biodiversity in Taita Hills, Kenya

Species richness varies greatly across geographical regions. Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM) of Kenya and Tanzania is one of the global biodiversity hotspots. Despite this, high species diversity the explanatory factors have remained largely unexplored. Herein, this study first investigated amphibian species richness patterns in the EAM and particularly the reasons for the low richness in Taita Hills. It tested the hypothesis that the low richness is due to past forest loss or other factors. The results demonstrated that the regional species richness pattern was influenced largely by mean annual rainfall and not forest area. Secondly, using the 26 currently recorded amphibians in the Taita Hills, it investigated the relationship between amphibian species composition along anthropogenic habitat disturbance and elevation gradients. It tested the hypothesis that sites with similar environmental characteristics (temperature, rainfall and elevation), in close proximity and with similar disturbance levels (habitat types) harbour similar species composition. It was found that amphibian species composition differed in terms of elevation and was explained by both temperature and rainfall. Therefore sites with similar environmental characteristics, disturbance levels and in close proximity geographically have similar amphibian composition. Thirdly, diagnostic characters, distribution, basic life history characteristics and conservation status of all currently known amphibians in the Taita Hills were provided. Finally, first long term life history and ecological characteristics of a brevicipitid frog (Callulina sp) was provided. The results showed that this frog abundance and distribution is influenced mainly by mean monthly temperature, breeds during the long dry season and exhibit parental care. Results of this study strongly recommend increasing indigenous forest cover in order to enhance the conservation of the endemic indigenous forest associated amphibians such as Callulina sp, Boulengerula taitana and Boulengerula niedeni.

Forme atipiche di malattia mani-piedi-bocca: La nostra esperienza

Introduzione: La malattia mani-piedi-bocca è una patologia infettiva tipica della prima infanzia causata dagli enterovirus, in particolare i sierotipi Coxsackievirus A16 ed Enterovirus 71. A partire dal 2008, ne è stata descritta un’epidemia da Coxsackievirus A6, in genere accompagnata da febbre elevata e che si distingue per lo sviluppo di piccole vescicole che progrediscono a lesioni vescicolo-bollose e a bolle vere e proprie. Inoltre, nei pazienti affetti da dermatite atopica, le lesioni tendono a localizzarsi sulle aree eczematose. Abbiamo quindi svolto uno studio osservazionale prospettico per descrivere le caratteristiche cliniche delle forme atipiche di malattia mani-piedi-bocca. Metodi: Sono stati arruolati i pazienti affetti da una forma atipica di malattia mani-piedi-bocca giunti consecutivamente presso l’Ambulatorio di Dermatologia Pediatrica del Policlinico S.Orsola-Malpighi di Bologna tra gennaio 2012 e febbraio 2014. Abbiamo valutato distribuzione, tipologia ed estensione delle lesioni. In un gruppo di pazienti è stata inoltre eseguita l’identificazione virale sul fluido vescicolare. Risultati: Abbiamo arruolato 47 pazienti (68% maschi) con un’età mediana di 22 mesi. Sono stati individuati 3 aspetti clinici principali: 1) forma acrale (distribuzione delle lesioni prevalentemente acrale), nel 62% dei soggetti; 2) eczema coxsackium (lesioni localizzate su aree eczematose), nel 23% dei soggetti; 3) forma diffusa (estensione delle lesioni al tronco), nel 15% dei soggetti. Inoltre, nell’80% circa dei pazienti si riscontravano macule purpuriche acrali, circa la metà dei pazienti aveva lesioni con aspetto purpurico e il 72% un interessamento dei glutei. In 9 su 11 soggetti genotipizzati è stato isolato il Coxsackievirus A6. Conclusioni: Questo studio ha permesso di descrivere tre fenotipi di malattia mani-piedi-bocca atipica, che deve essere correttamente identificata al fine di non porre diagnosi errate quali varicella, eczema herpeticum, vasculiti, impetigine, e di potere così procedere ad una gestione appropriata della patologia.

Heterogeneity in the Relationship between Happiness and Age: Evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel

This paper studies the evolution of life satisfaction over the life course in Germany. It clarifies the causal interpretation of the econometric model by discussing the choice of control variables and the underidentification between age, cohort and time effects. The empirical part analyzes the distribution of life satisfaction over the life course at the aggregated, subgroup and individual level. To the findings: On average, life satisfaction is mildly decreasing up to age 55 followed by a hump shape with a maximum at 70. The analysis at the lower levels suggests that people differ in their life satisfaction trends, whereas the hump shape after age 55 is robust. No important differences between men and women are found. In contrast, education groups differ in their trends: highly educated people become happier over the life cycle, where life satisfaction decreases for less-educated people.

Disparities in medical expenditure and utilization among hypertensive men and women in the U.S.: Cross-section and lifetime analysis

Objectives. To investigate procedural gender equity by assessing predisposing, enabling and need predictors of gender differences in annual medical expenditures and utilization among hypertensive individuals in the U.S. Also, to estimate and compare lifetime medical expenditures among hypertensive men and women in the U.S. ^ Data source. 2001-2004 the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS);1986-2000 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and National Health Interview Survey linked to mortality in the National Death Index through 2002 (2002 NHIS-NDI). ^ Study design. We estimated total medical expenditure using four equations regression model, specific medical expenditures using two equations regression model and utilization using negative binomial regression model. Procedural equity was assessed by applying the Aday et al. theoretical framework. Expenditures were estimated in 2004 dollars. We estimated hypertension-attributable medical expenditure and utilization among men and women. ^ To estimate lifetime expenditures from ages 20 to 85+, we estimated medical expenditures with cross-sectional data and survival with prospective data. The four equations regression model were used to estimate average annual medical expenditures defined as sum of inpatient stay, emergency room visits, outpatient visits, office based visits, and prescription drugs expenditures. Life tables were used to estimate the distribution of life time medical expenditures for hypertensive men and women at different age and factors such as disease incidence, medical technology and health care cost were assumed to be fixed. Both total and hypertension attributable expenditures among men and women were estimated. ^ Data collection. We used the 2001-2004 MEPS household component and medical condition files; the NHIS person and condition files from 1986-1996 and 1997-2000 sample adult files were used; and the 1986-2000 NHIS that were linked to mortality in the 2002 NHIS-NDI. ^ Principal findings. Hypertensive men had significantly less utilization for most measures after controlling predisposing, enabling and need factors than hypertensive women. Similarly, hypertensive men had less prescription drug (-9.3%), office based (-7.2%) and total medical (-4.5%) expenditures than hypertensive women. However, men had more hypertension-attributable medical expenditures and utilization than women. ^ Expected total lifetime expenditure for average life table individuals at age 20, was $188,300 for hypertensive men and $254,910 for hypertensive women. But the lifetime expenditure that could be attributed to hypertension was $88,033 for men and $40,960 for women. ^ Conclusion. Hypertensive women had more utilization and expenditure for most measures than hypertensive men, possibly indicating procedural inequity. However, relatively higher hypertension-attributable health care of men shows more utilization of resources to treat hypertension related diseases among men than women. Similar results were reported in lifetime analyses.^ Key words: gender, medical expenditures, utilization, hypertension-attributable, lifetime expenditure ^

Topsoil properties and abundance of Acari and Collembola species in northern Victoria Land, Antarctica

Soil fauna in the extreme conditions of Antarctica consists of a few microinvertebrate species patchily distributed at different spatial scales. Populations of the prostigmatic mite Stereotydeus belli and the collembolan Gressittacantha terranova from northern Victoria Land (Antarctica) were used as models to study the effect of soil properties on microarthropod distributions. In agreement with the general assumption that the development and distribution of life in these ecosystems is mainly controlled by abiotic factors, we found that the probability of occurrence of S. belli depends on soil moisture and texture and on the sampling period (which affects the general availability of water); surprisingly, none of the analysed variables were significantly related to the G. terranova distribution. Based on our results and literature data, we propose a theoretical model that introduces biotic interactions among the major factors driving the local distribution of collembolans in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems.