Change Point Estimation in Monitoring Survival Time

Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Aromatic l-amino acid decarboxylase : histochemical localization in rat kidney and lack of effect of dietary potassium or sodium loading on enzyme distribution

Utilizing a mono-specific antiserum produced in rabbits to hog kidney aromatic L-amino acid decarboxylase (AADC), the enzyme was localized in rat kidney by immunoperoxidase staining. AADC was located predominantly in the proximal convoluted tubules; there was also weak staining in the distal convoluted tubules and collecting ducts. An increase in dietary potassium or sodium intake produced no change in density or distribution of AADC staining in kidney. An assay of AADC enzyme activity showed no difference in cortex or medulla with chronic potassium loading. A change in distribution or activity of renal AADC does not explain the postulated dopaminergic modulation of renal function that occurs with potassium or sodium loading.

Sustainable water provision : challenges, alternative strategies and sources in the ERA of climate change

As a result of rapid urbanisation, population growth, changes in lifestyle, pollution and the impacts of climate change, water provision has become a critical challenge for planners and policy-makers. In the wake of increasingly difficult water provision and drought, the notion that freshwater is a finite and vulnerable resource is increasingly being realised. Many city administrations around the world are struggling to provide water security for their residents to maintain lifestyle and economic growth. This chapter reviews the global challenge of providing freshwater to sustain lifestyles and economic growth, and the contributing challenges of climate change, urbanisation, population growth and problems in rainfall distribution. The chapter proceeds to evaluate major alternatives to current water sources such as conservation, recycling and reclamation, and desalination. Integrated water resource management is briefly looked at to explore its role in complementing water provision. A comparative study on alternative resources is undertaken to evaluate their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and constraints, and the results are discussed.

Ventilation distribution in rats : Part I - The effect of gas composition as measured with electrical impedance tomography

The measurement of ventilation distribution is currently performed using inhaled tracer gases for multiple breath inhalation studies or imaging techniques to quantify spatial gas distribution. Most tracer gases used for these studies have properties different from that of air. The effect of gas density on regional ventilation distribution has not been studied. This study aimed to measure the effect of gas density on regional ventilation distribution. Methods Ventilation distribution was measured in seven rats using electrical impedance tomography (EIT) in supine, prone, left and right lateral positions while being mechanically ventilated with either air, heliox (30% oxygen, 70% helium) or sulfur hexafluoride (20% SF6, 20% oxygen, 60% air). The effect of gas density on regional ventilation distribution was assessed. Results Gas density did not impact on regional ventilation distribution. The non-dependent lung was better ventilated in all four body positions. Gas density had no further impact on regional filling characteristics. The filling characteristics followed an anatomical pattern with the anterior and left lung showing a greater impedance change during the initial phase of the inspiration. Conclusion It was shown that gas density did not impact on convection dependent ventilation distribution in rats measured with EIT.

A catchment modelling approach integrating surface and groundwater processes, land use and distribution of nutrients : Elimbah Creek, southeast Queensland

As the world’s population is growing, so is the demand for agricultural products. However, natural nitrogen (N) fixation and phosphorus (P) availability cannot sustain the rising agricultural production, thus, the application of N and P fertilisers as additional nutrient sources is common. It is those anthropogenic activities that can contribute high amounts of organic and inorganic nutrients to both surface and groundwaters resulting in degradation of water quality and a possible reduction of aquatic life. In addition, runoff and sewage from urban and residential areas can contain high amounts of inorganic and organic nutrients which may also affect water quality. For example, blooms of the cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula along the coastline of southeast Queensland are an indicator of at least short term decreases of water quality. Although Australian catchments, including those with intensive forms of land use, show in general a low export of nutrients compared to North American and European catchments, certain land use practices may still have a detrimental effect on the coastal environment. Numerous studies are reported on nutrient cycling and associated processes on a catchment scale in the Northern Hemisphere. Comparable studies in Australia, in particular in subtropical regions are, however, limited and there is a paucity in the data, in particular for inorganic and organic forms of nitrogen and phosphorus; these nutrients are important limiting factors in surface waters to promote algal blooms. Therefore, the monitoring of N and P and understanding the sources and pathways of these nutrients within a catchment is important in coastal zone management. Although Australia is the driest continent, in subtropical regions such as southeast Queensland, rainfall patterns have a significant effect on runoff and thus the nutrient cycle at a catchment scale. Increasingly, these rainfall patterns are becoming variable. The monitoring of these climatic conditions and the hydrological response of agricultural catchments is therefore also important to reduce the anthropogenic effects on surface and groundwater quality. This study consists of an integrated hydrological–hydrochemical approach that assesses N and P in an environment with multiple land uses. The main aim is to determine the nutrient cycle within a representative coastal catchment in southeast Queensland, the Elimbah Creek catchment. In particular, the investigation confirms the influence associated with forestry and agriculture on N and P forms, sources, distribution and fate in the surface and groundwaters of this subtropical setting. In addition, the study determines whether N and P are subject to transport into the adjacent estuary and thus into the marine environment; also considered is the effect of local topography, soils and geology on N and P sources and distribution. The thesis is structured on four components individually reported. The first paper determines the controls of catchment settings and processes on stream water, riverbank sediment, and shallow groundwater N and P concentrations, in particular during the extended dry conditions that were encountered during the study. Temporal and spatial factors such as seasonal changes, soil character, land use and catchment morphology are considered as well as their effect on controls over distributions of N and P in surface waters and associated groundwater. A total number of 30 surface and 13 shallow groundwater sampling sites were established throughout the catchment to represent dominant soil types and the land use upstream of each sampling location. Sampling comprises five rounds and was conducted over one year between October 2008 and November 2009. Surface water and groundwater samples were analysed for all major dissolved inorganic forms of N and for total N. Phosphorus was determined in the form of dissolved reactive P (predominantly orthophosphate) and total P. In addition, extracts of stream bank sediments and soil grab samples were analysed for these N and P species. Findings show that major storm events, in particular after long periods of drought conditions, are the driving force of N cycling. This is expressed by higher inorganic N concentrations in the agricultural subcatchment compared to the forested subcatchment. Nitrate N is the dominant inorganic form of N in both the surface and groundwaters and values are significantly higher in the groundwaters. Concentrations in the surface water range from 0.03 to 0.34 mg N L..1; organic N concentrations are considerably higher (average range: 0.33 to 0.85 mg N L..1), in particular in the forested subcatchment. Average NO3-N in the groundwater has a range of 0.39 to 2.08 mg N L..1, and organic N averages between 0.07 and 0.3 mg N L..1. The stream bank sediments are dominated by organic N (range: 0.53 to 0.65 mg N L..1), and the dominant inorganic form of N is NH4-N with values ranging between 0.38 and 0.41 mg N L..1. Topography and soils, however, were not to have a significant effect on N and P concentrations in waters. Detectable phosphorus in the surface and groundwaters of the catchment is limited to several locations typically in the proximity of areas with intensive animal use; in soil and sediments, P is negligible. In the second paper, the stable isotopes of N (14N/15N) and H2O (16O/18O and 2H/H) in surface and groundwaters are used to identify sources of dissolved inorganic and organic N in these waters, and to determine their pathways within the catchment; specific emphasis is placed on the relation of forestry and agriculture. Forestry is predominantly concentrated in the northern subcatchment (Beerburrum Creek) while agriculture is mainly found in the southern subcatchment (Six Mile Creek). Results show that agriculture (horticulture, crops, grazing) is the main source of inorganic N in the surface waters of the agricultural subcatchment, and their isotopic signature shows a close link to evaporation processes that may occur during water storage in farm dams that are used for irrigation. Groundwaters are subject to denitrification processes that may result in reduced dissolved inorganic N concentrations. Soil organic matter delivers most of the inorganic N to the surface water in the forested subcatchment. Here, precipitation and subsequently runoff is the main source of the surface waters. Groundwater in this area is affected by agricultural processes. The findings also show that the catchment can attenuate the effects of anthropogenic land use on surface water quality. Riparian strips of natural remnant vegetation, commonly 50 to 100 m in width, act as buffer zones along the drainage lines in the catchment and remove inorganic N from the soil water before it enters the creek. These riparian buffer zones are common in most agricultural catchments of southeast Queensland and are indicated to reduce the impact of agriculture on stream water quality and subsequently on the estuary and marine environments. This reduction is expressed by a significant decrease in DIN concentrations from 1.6 mg N L..1 to 0.09 mg N L..1, and a decrease in the �15N signatures from upstream surface water locations downstream to the outlet of the agricultural subcatchment. Further testing is, however, necessary to confirm these processes. Most importantly, the amount of N that is transported to the adjacent estuary is shown to be negligible. The third and fourth components of the thesis use a hydrological catchment model approach to determine the water balance of the Elimbah Creek catchment. The model is then used to simulate the effects of land use on the water balance and nutrient loads of the study area. The tool that is used is the internationally widely applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Knowledge about the water cycle of a catchment is imperative in nutrient studies as processes such as rainfall, surface runoff, soil infiltration and routing of water through the drainage system are the driving forces of the catchment nutrient cycle. Long-term information about discharge volumes of the creeks and rivers do, however, not exist for a number of agricultural catchments in southeast Queensland, and such information is necessary to calibrate and validate numerical models. Therefore, a two-step modelling approach was used to calibrate and validate parameters values from a near-by gauged reference catchment as starting values for the ungauged Elimbah Creek catchment. Transposing monthly calibrated and validated parameter values from the reference catchment to the ungauged catchment significantly improved model performance showing that the hydrological model of the catchment of interest is a strong predictor of the water water balance. The model efficiency coefficient EF shows that 94% of the simulated discharge matches the observed flow whereas only 54% of the observed streamflow was simulated by the SWAT model prior to using the validated values from the reference catchment. In addition, the hydrological model confirmed that total surface runoff contributes the majority of flow to the surface water in the catchment (65%). Only a small proportion of the water in the creek is contributed by total base-flow (35%). This finding supports the results of the stable isotopes 16O/18O and 2H/H, which show the main source of water in the creeks is either from local precipitation or irrigation waters delivered by surface runoff; a contribution from the groundwater (baseflow) to the creeks could not be identified using 16O/18O and 2H/H. In addition, the SWAT model calculated that around 68% of the rainfall occurring in the catchment is lost through evapotranspiration reflecting the prevailing long-term drought conditions that were observed prior and during the study. Stream discharge from the forested subcatchment was an order of magnitude lower than discharge from the agricultural Six Mile Creek subcatchment. A change in land use from forestry to agriculture did not significantly change the catchment water balance, however, nutrient loads increased considerably. Conversely, a simulated change from agriculture to forestry resulted in a significant decrease of nitrogen loads. The findings of the thesis and the approach used are shown to be of value to catchment water quality monitoring on a wider scale, in particular the implications of mixed land use on nutrient forms, distributions and concentrations. The study confirms that in the tropics and subtropics the water balance is affected by extended dry periods and seasonal rainfall with intensive storm events. In particular, the comprehensive data set of inorganic and organic N and P forms in the surface and groundwaters of this subtropical setting acquired during the one year sampling program may be used in similar catchment hydrological studies where these detailed information is missing. Also, the study concludes that riparian buffer zones along the catchment drainage system attenuate the transport of nitrogen from agricultural sources in the surface water. Concentrations of N decreased from upstream to downstream locations and were negligible at the outlet of the catchment.

Effect of temperature distribution on predicting quality of microwave dehydrated food

During food drying, many other changes occur simultaneously, resulting in an improved overall quality. Among the quality attributes, the structure and its corresponding color influence directly or indirectly other properties of food. In addition, these quality attributes are affected by process conditions, material components and the raw structure of the foodstuff. In this work, the temperature distribution within food materials during microwave drying has been taken into consideration to observe its role in color modification. In order to determine the temperature distribution of microwave-dried food (apple), a thermal imaging camera has been used. The image acquired from the digital camera has been analysed using image J software in order to get the color change of fresh and dried apple. The results show that temperature distribution plays an important role in determining the quality of the food. The thermal imaging camera was deployed to observe the temperature distribution within food materials during drying. It is clearly observed from the higher value of (ERGB =102) and the uneven color change that uneven temperature distribution can influence customer perceptions of the quality of dried food. Simulation of a mathematical model of temperature distribution during microwave drying can make it possible to predict the colour and texture of the microwaved food.

The future of the music industry in an age of digital distribution

This is an invited public lecture. The talk will cover how the music industry has changed due to digital technologies. During the talk I will look at how the changing balance between live music, music licensing and recorded music. I will also discuss online music subscription services and whether they might be a future for music distribution in China and elsewhere in the world. It will also look at how music artists and composers are affected by this change.

Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Weather variables, mainly temperature and humidity influence vectors, viruses, human biology, ecology and consequently the intensity and distribution of the vector-borne diseases. There is evidence that warmer temperature due to climate change will influence the dengue transmission. However, long term scenario-based projections are yet to be developed. Here, we assessed the impact of weather variability on dengue transmission in a megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh and projected the future dengue risk attributable to climate change. Our results show that weather variables particularly temperature and humidity were positively associated with dengue transmission. The effects of weather variables were observed at a lag of four months. We projected that assuming a temperature increase of 3.3 °C without any adaptation measure and changes in socio-economic condition, there will be a projected increase of 16,030 dengue cases in Dhaka by the end of this century. This information might be helpful for the public health authorities to prepare for the likely increase of dengue due to climate change. The modelling framework used in this study may be applicable to dengue projection in other cities.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

The music industry in an age of digital distribution

In 1999 the global recorded music industry had experienced a period of growth that had lasted for almost a quarter of a century. Approximately one billion records were sold worldwide in 1974, and by the end of the century, the number of records sold was more than three times as high. At the end of the nineties, spirits among record label executives were high and few music industry executives at this time expected that a team of teenage Internet hackers, led by Shawn Fanning (at the time a student at Northeastern University in Boston) would ignite the turbulent process that eventually would undermine the foundations of the industry.

Asymptotic minimax robust and misspecified Lorden quickest change detection for dependent stochastic processes

The quick detection of an abrupt unknown change in the conditional distribution of a dependent stochastic process has numerous applications. In this paper, we pose a minimax robust quickest change detection problem for cases where there is uncertainty about the post-change conditional distribution. Our minimax robust formulation is based on the popular Lorden criteria of optimal quickest change detection. Under a condition on the set of possible post-change distributions, we show that the widely known cumulative sum (CUSUM) rule is asymptotically minimax robust under our Lorden minimax robust formulation as a false alarm constraint becomes more strict. We also establish general asymptotic bounds on the detection delay of misspecified CUSUM rules (i.e. CUSUM rules that are designed with post- change distributions that differ from those of the observed sequence). We exploit these bounds to compare the delay performance of asymptotically minimax robust, asymptotically optimal, and other misspecified CUSUM rules. In simulation examples, we illustrate that asymptotically minimax robust CUSUM rules can provide better detection delay performance at greatly reduced computation effort compared to competing generalised likelihood ratio procedures.

Longitudinal change in sleep and daytime sleepiness in postpartum women

Sleep disruption strongly influences daytime functioning; resultant sleepiness is recognised as a contributing risk-factor for individuals performing critical and dangerous tasks. While the relationship between sleep and sleepiness has been heavily investigated in the vulnerable sub-populations of shift workers and patients with sleep disorders, postpartum women have been comparatively overlooked. Thirty-three healthy, postpartum women recorded every episode of sleep and wake each day during postpartum weeks 6, 12 and 18. Although repeated measures analysis revealed there was no significant difference in the amount of nocturnal sleep and frequency of night-time wakings, there was a significant reduction in sleep disruption, due to fewer minutes of wake after sleep onset. Subjective sleepiness was measured each day using the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale; at the two earlier time points this was significantly correlated with sleep quality but not to sleep quantity. Epworth Sleepiness Scores significantly reduced over time; however, during week 18 over 50% of participants were still experiencing excessive daytime sleepiness (Epworth Sleepiness Score ≥12). Results have implications for health care providers and policy makers. Health care providers designing interventions to address sleepiness in new mothers should take into account the dynamic changes to sleep and sleepiness during this initial postpartum period. Policy makers developing regulations for parental leave entitlements should take into consideration the high prevalence of excessive daytime sleepiness experienced by new mothers, ensuring enough opportunity for daytime sleepiness to diminish to a manageable level prior to reengagement in the workforce.

Public preferences for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation: A choice experiment using ecosystem services indicators

Potential conflicts exist between biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation as trade-offs in multiple-use land management. This study aims to evaluate public preferences for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation policy considering respondents’ uncertainty on their choice. We conducted a choice experiment using land-use scenarios in the rural Kushiro watershed in northern Japan. The results showed that the public strongly wish to avoid the extinction of endangered species in preference to climate-change mitigation in the form of carbon sequestration by increasing the area of managed forest. Knowledge of the site and the respondents’ awareness of the personal benefits associated with supporting and regulating services had a positive effect on their preference for conservation plans. Thus, decision-makers should be careful about how they provide ecological information for informed choices concerning ecosystem services tradeoffs. Suggesting targets with explicit indicators will affect public preferences, as well as the willingness of the public to pay for such measures. Furthermore, the elicited-choice probabilities approach is useful for revealing the distribution of relative preferences for incomplete scenarios, thus verifying the effectiveness of indicators introduced in the experiment.

Supine to standing Cobb angle change in idiopathic scoliosis : the effect of endplate pre-selection

Background Supine imaging modalities provide valuable 3D information on scoliotic anatomy, but the altered spine geometry between the supine and standing positions affects the Cobb angle measurement. Previous studies report a mean 7°-10° Cobb angle increase from supine to standing, but none have reported the effect of endplate pre-selection or whether other parameters affect this Cobb angle difference. Methods Cobb angles from existing coronal radiographs were compared to those on existing low-dose CT scans taken within three months of the reference radiograph for a group of females with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Reformatted coronal CT images were used to measure supine Cobb angles with and without endplate pre-selection (end-plates selected from the radiographs) by two observers on three separate occasions. Inter and intra-observer measurement variability were assessed. Multi-linear regression was used to investigate whether there was a relationship between supine to standing Cobb angle change and eight variables: patient age, mass, standing Cobb angle, Risser sign, ligament laxity, Lenke type, fulcrum flexibility and time delay between radiograph and CT scan. Results Fifty-two patients with right thoracic Lenke Type 1 curves and mean age 14.6 years (SD 1.8) were included. The mean Cobb angle on standing radiographs was 51.9° (SD 6.7). The mean Cobb angle on supine CT images without pre-selection of endplates was 41.1° (SD 6.4). The mean Cobb angle on supine CT images with endplate pre-selection was 40.5° (SD 6.6). Pre-selecting vertebral endplates increased the mean Cobb change by 0.6° (SD 2.3, range −9° to 6°). When free to do so, observers chose different levels for the end vertebrae in 39% of cases. Multi-linear regression revealed a statistically significant relationship between supine to standing Cobb change and fulcrum flexibility (p = 0.001), age (p = 0.027) and standing Cobb angle (p < 0.001). The 95% confidence intervals for intra-observer and inter-observer measurement variability were 3.1° and 3.6°, respectively. Conclusions Pre-selecting vertebral endplates causes minor changes to the mean supine to standing Cobb change. There is a statistically significant relationship between supine to standing Cobb change and fulcrum flexibility such that this difference can be considered a potential alternative measure of spinal flexibility.

The effect of endplate preselection when measuring supine versus standing cobb angle change in idiopathic scoliosis

The primary aim of this study was to determine whether endplate pre-selection makes a difference to the Cobb Angle change between supine and standing which is known to occur in idiopathic scoliosis. A secondary aim of this study was to identify which (if any) patient characteristics were correlated with supine versus standing Cobb change. The study found that pre-selecting vertebral endplates causes only has a minor effect on supine to standing Cobb change in scoliosis. There is a statistically significant relationship between supine to standing Cobb Angle change and fulcrum flexibility. Therefore, supine to standing Cobb Angle change can be considered as a measure of spinal flexibility when both standing and supine images are clinically available.