Analisi critica di modelli previsionali per le frane in Emilia Romagna

Questa tesi di dottorato è inserita nell’ambito della convenzione tra ARPA_SIMC (che è l’Ente finanziatore), l’Agenzia Regionale di Protezione Civile ed il Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geologico - Ambientali dell’Ateneo di Bologna. L’obiettivo principale è la determinazione di possibili soglie pluviometriche di innesco per i fenomeni franosi in Emilia Romagna che possano essere utilizzate come strumento di supporto previsionale in sala operativa di Protezione Civile. In un contesto geologico così complesso, un approccio empirico tradizionale non è sufficiente per discriminare in modo univoco tra eventi meteo innescanti e non, ed in generale la distribuzione dei dati appare troppo dispersa per poter tracciare una soglia statisticamente significativa. È stato quindi deciso di applicare il rigoroso approccio statistico Bayesiano, innovativo poiché calcola la probabilità di frana dato un certo evento di pioggia (P(A|B)) , considerando non solo le precipitazioni innescanti frane (quindi la probabilità condizionata di avere un certo evento di precipitazione data l’occorrenza di frana, P(B|A)), ma anche le precipitazioni non innescanti (quindi la probabilità a priori di un evento di pioggia, P(A)). L’approccio Bayesiano è stato applicato all’intervallo temporale compreso tra il 1939 ed il 2009. Le isolinee di probabilità ottenute minimizzano i falsi allarmi e sono facilmente implementabili in un sistema di allertamento regionale, ma possono presentare limiti previsionali per fenomeni non rappresentati nel dataset storico o che avvengono in condizioni anomale. Ne sono esempio le frane superficiali con evoluzione in debris flows, estremamente rare negli ultimi 70 anni, ma con frequenza recentemente in aumento. Si è cercato di affrontare questo problema testando la variabilità previsionale di alcuni modelli fisicamente basati appositamente sviluppati a questo scopo, tra cui X – SLIP (Montrasio et al., 1998), SHALSTAB (SHALlow STABility model, Montgomery & Dietrich, 1994), Iverson (2000), TRIGRS 1.0 (Baum et al., 2002), TRIGRS 2.0 (Baum et al., 2008).

Lake sediments as archives of recurrence rates and intensities of past flood events

Palaeoflood hydrology is an expanding field as the damage potential of flood and flood-related processes are increasing with the population density and the value of the infrastructure. Assessing the risk of these hazards in mountainous terrain requires knowledge about the frequency and severness of such events in the past. A wide range of methods is employed using diverse biologic, geomorphic or geologic evidences to track past flood events. Impact of floods are studied and dated on alluvial fans and cones using for example the growth disturbance of trees (Stoffel and Bollschweiler 2008; Schneuwly-Bollschweiler and Stoffel 2012: this volume) or stratigraphic layers deposited by debris flows, allowing to reconstruct past flood frequencies (Bardou et~al. 2003). Further downstream, the classical approach of palaeoflood hydrology (Kochel and Baker 1982) utilizes geomorphic indicators such as overbank sediments, silt lines and erosion features of floods along a river (e.g. Benito and Thorndycraft 2005). Fine-grained sediment settles out of the river suspension in eddies or backwater areas, where the flow velocity of the river is reduced. Records of these deposits at different elevations across a river’s profile can be used to assess the discharge of the past floods. This approach of palaeoflood hydrology studies was successfully applied in several river catchments (e.g. Ely et al. 1993; Macklin and Lewin 2003; O’Connor et al. 1994; Sheffer et al. 2003; Thorndycraft et al. 2005; Thorndycraft and Benito 2006). All these different reconstruction methods have their own advantages and disadvantages, but often these studies have a limited time coverage and the records are potentially incomplete due to lateral limits of depositional areas and due to the erosional power of fluvial processes that remove previously deposited flood witnesses. Here, we present a method that follows the sediment particle transported by a flood event to its final sink: the lacustrine basin.

Patterns and controls of sediment production, transfer and yield in the Illgraben

Quantification of the volumes of sediment removed by rock–slope failure and debris flows and identification of their coupling and controls are pertinent to understanding mountain basin sediment yield and landscape evolution. This study captures a multi-decadal period of hillslope erosion and channel change following an extreme rock avalanche in 1961 in the Illgraben, a catchment prone to debris flows in the Swiss Alps. We analyzed photogrammetrically-derived datasets of hillslope and channel erosion and deposition along with climatic and seismic variables for a 43 year period from 1963 to 2005. Based on these analyses we identify and discuss (1) patterns of hillslope production, channel transfer and catchment sediment yield, (2) their dominant interactions with climatic and seismic variables, and (3) the nature of hillslope–channel coupling and implications for sediment yield and landscape evolution in this mountain basin. Our results show an increase in the mean hillslope erosion rate in the 1980s from 0.24 ± 0.01 m yr− 1 to 0.42 ± 0.03 m yr− 1 that coincided with a significant increase in air temperature and decrease in snow cover depth and duration, which we presume led to an increase in the exposure of the slopes to thermal weathering processes. The combination of highly fractured slopes close to the threshold angle for failure, and multiple potential triggering mechanisms, means that it is difficult to identify an individual control on slope failure. On the other hand, the rate of channel change was strongly related to variables influencing runoff. A period of particularly high channel erosion rate of 0.74 ± 0.02 m yr− 1 (1992–1998) coincided with an increase in the frequency and magnitude of intense rainfall events. Hillslope erosion exceeded channel erosion on average, indicative of a downslope-directed coupling relationship between hillslope and channel, and demonstrating the first order control of rock–slope failure on catchment sediment yield and landscape evolution.

Geomorphic coupling between hillslopes and channels in the Swiss Alps

The coupling relationships between hillslope and channel network are fundamental for the understanding of mountainous landscapes' evolution. Here, we applied dendrogeomorphic methods to identify the hillslope–channel relationship and the sediment transfer dynamics within an alpine catchment, at the highest possible resolution. The Schimbrig catchment is located in the central Swiss Alps and can be divided into two distinct geomorphic sectors. To the east, the Schimbrig earth flow is the largest sediment source of the basin, while to the west, the Rossloch channel network is affected by numerous shallow landslides responsible for the supply of sediment from hillslopes to channels. To understand the connectivity between hillslopes and channels and between sources and sink, trees were sampled along the main Rossloch stream, on the Schimbrig earth flow and on the Rossloch depositional area. Geomorphic observations and dendrogeomophic results indicate different mechanisms of sediment production, transfer and deposition between upper and lower segments of the channel network. In the source areas (upper part of the Rossloch channel system), sediment is delivered to the channel network through slow movements of the ground, typical of earth flow, shallow landslides and soil creep. Contrariwise, in the depositional area (lower part of the channel network), the mechanisms of sediment transfer are mainly due to torrential activity, floods and debris flows. Tree analysis allowed the reconstruction of periods of high activity during the last century for the entire catchment. The collected dataset presents a very high temporal resolution but we encountered some limitations in establishing the source-to-sink connectivity at the catchment-wide scale. Despite these uncertainties, for decennial timescales the results suggest a direct coupling between hillslopes and neighbouring channels in the Rossloch channel network, and a de-coupling between sediment sources and sink farther downstream, with connections possible only during extraordinary events.

Vulnerability to Heatwaves, Floods and Mass Movements in Mountainous Terrain: Test Cases in South Tyrol

South Tyrol is a region that has been often affected by various mountain hazards such as floods, flash floods, debris flows, rock falls, and snow avalanches. Furthermore, areas located in lower altitudes are often influenced by high temperatures and heat waves. Climate change is expected to influence the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of these natural phenomena. For this reason, local authorities and other stakeholders are in need of tools that can enable them to reduce the risk posed by these processes. In the present study, a variety of methods are applied at local level in different places in South Tyrol that aim at: (1) the assessment of future losses caused by the occurrence of debris flows by using a vulnerability curve, (2) the assessment of social vulnerability based on the risk awareness of the exposed people to floods, and (3) the assessment of spatial exposure and social vulnerability of the exposed population to heat waves. The results show that, in South Tyrol, the risk to a number of hazards can be reduced by: (1) improving documentation for past events in order to improve existing vulnerability curves and the assessment of future losses, (2) raising citizens' awareness and responsibility to improve coping capacity to floods, and (3) extending heat wave early warning systems to more low-lying areas of South Tyrol.

Hazard index maps for woody material recruitment and transport in alpine catchments

A robust and reliable risk assessment procedure for hydrologic hazards deserves particular attention to the role of transported woody material during flash floods or debris flows. At present, woody material transport phenomena are not systematically considered within the procedures for the elaboration of hazard maps. The consequence is a risk of losing prediction accuracy and of underestimating hazard impacts. Transported woody material frequently interferes with the sediment regulation capacity of open check dams and moreover, when obstruction phenomena at critical crosssections of the stream occur, inundations can be triggered. The paper presents a procedure for the determination of the relative propensity of mountain streams to the entrainment and delivery of recruited woody material on the basis of empirical indicators. The procedure provided the basis for the elaboration of a hazard index map for all torrent catchments of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano/Bozen. The plausibility of the results has been thoroughly checked by a backward oriented analysis on natural hazard events, documented since 1998 at the Department of Hydraulic Engineering of the aforementioned Alpine Province. The procedure provides hints for the consideration of the effects, induced by woody material transport, during the elaboration of hazard zone maps.

Prognose von Murganggefahren: Wie sicher ist sie?

Debris flows are highly complex natural phenomena. The assessment of these processes requires the parallel application of various approaches and methods. However, many uncertainties remain even if proven procedures are available. Uncertainties are highest for magnitude-frequency relations and for the behaviour of the process.

Geological and hydrological histories of the Argyre province, Mars

The geologic history of the multi-ringed Argyre impact basin and surroundings has been reconstructed on the basis of geologic mapping and relative-age dating of rock materials and structures. The impact formed a primary basin, rim materials, and a complex basement structural fabric including faults and valleys that are radial and concentric about the primary basin, as well as structurally-controlled local basins. Since its formation, the basin has been a regional catchment for volatiles and sedimentary materials as well as a dominant influence on the flow of surface ice, debris flows, and groundwater through and over its basement structures. The basin is interpreted to have been occupied by lakes, including a possible Mediterranean-sized sea that formed in the aftermath of the Argyre impact event The hypothesized lakes froze and diminished through time, though liquid water may have remained beneath the ice cover and sedimentation may have continued for some time. At its deepest, the main Argyre lake may have taken more than a hundred thousand years to freeze to the bottom even absent any heat source besides the Sun, but with impact-induced hydrothermal heat, geothermal heat flow due to long-lived radioactivities in early martian history, and concentration of solutes in sub-ice brine, liquid water may have persisted beneath thick ice for many millions of years. Existence of an ice-covered sea perhaps was long enough for life to originate and evolve with gradually colder and more hypersaline conditions. The Argyre rock materials, diverse in origin and emplacement mechanisms, have been modified by impact, magmatic, eolian, fluvial, lacustrine, glacial, periglacial, alluvial, colluvial, and tectonic processes. Post-impact adjustment of part of the impact-generated basement structural fabric such as concentric faults is apparent. Distinct basin-stratigraphic units are interpreted to be linked to large-scale geologic activity far from the basin, including growth of the Tharsis magmatic-tectonic complex and the growth into southern middle latitudes of south polar ice sheets. Along with the migration of surface and sub-surface volatiles towards the central part of the primaiy basin, the substantial difference in elevation with respect to the surrounding highlands and Tharsis and the Thaumasia highlands result in the trapping of atmospheric volatiles within the basin in the form of fog and regional or local precipitation, even today. In addition, the impact event caused long-term (millions of years) hydrothermal activity, as well as deep-seated basement structures that have tapped the internal heat of Mars, as conduits, for far greater time, possibly even today. This possibility is raised by the observation of putative open-system pingos and nearby gullies that occur in linear depressions with accompanying systems of faults and fractures. Long-term water and heat energy enrichment, complemented by the interaction of the nutrient-enriched primordial crustal and mantle materials favorable to life excavated to the surface and near-surface environs through the Argyre impact event, has not only resulted in distinct geomorphology, but also makes the Argyre basin a potential site of exceptional astrobiological significance. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

(Table 2) Characteristics of a turbidite flow inferred from physiography and morphology of the margin and the sediment waves

This paper presents the morpho-sedimentary characterization and interpretations of the assemblage of landforms of the East Greenland continental slope and Greenland Basin, based on swath bathymetry and sub-bottom TOPAS profiles. The interpretation of landforms reveals the glacial influence on recent sedimentary processes shaping the seafloor, including mass-wasting and turbidite flows. The timing of landform development points to a predominantly glacial origin of the sediment supplied to the continental margin, supporting the scenario of a Greenland Ice Sheet extending across the continental shelf, or even to the shelf-edge, during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Major sedimentary processes along the central section of the eastern Greenland Continental Slope, the Norske margin, suggest a relatively high glacial sediment input during the LGM that, probably triggered by tectonic activity, led to the development of scarps and channels on the slope and debris flows on the continental rise. The more southerly Kejser Franz Josef margin has small-scale mass-wasting deposits and an extensive turbidite system that developed in relation to both channelised and unconfined turbidity flows which transferred sediments into the deep Greenland Basin.

Uk'37, derived sea surface temperatures and coccolith abundances in North Atlantic sediment cores

The UK37' index has proven to be a robust proxy to estimate past sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over a range of time scales, but like any other proxy, it has uncertainties. For instance, in reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the northern North Atlantic, UK37' indicates higher temperatures than those derived from foraminiferal proxies. Here we evaluate whether such warm glacial estimates are caused by the advection of reworked alkenones in ice-rafted debris (IRD) to deep-sea sediments. We have quantified both coccolith assemblages and alkenones in sediments from glaciogenic debris flows in the continental margins of the northern North Atlantic, and from a deep-sea core from the Reykjanes Ridge. Certain debris flow deposits in the North Atlantic were generated by the presence of massive ice-sheets in the past, and their associated ice streams. Such deposits are composed of the same materials that were present in the IRD at the time they were generated. We conclude that ice rafting from some locations was a transport pathway to the deep sea floor of reworked alkenones and pre-Quaternary coccolith species during glacial stages, but that not all of the IRD contained alkenones, even when reworked coccoliths were present. We speculate that the ratio of reworked coccoliths to alkenone concentration might be useful to infer whether significant reworked alkenone inputs from IRD did occur at a particular site in the glacial North Atlantic. We also observe that alkenones in some of the debris flows contain a colder signal than estimated for LGM sediments in the northern North Atlantic. This is also clear in the deep-sea core studied where the warmest intervals do not correspond to the intervals with large inputs of reworked coccoliths or IRD. We conclude that any possible bias to UK37' estimates associated with reworked alkenones is not necessarily towards higher values, and that the high SST anomalies for the LGM are unlikely to be the result of a bias caused by IRD inputs.

Distribution, genesis and age of the Schlagwasser breccia (Warstein anticline, Rhenish massif)

The name "Schlagwasser breccia" is a synopsis of several debris flows in the Warstein area, which can be derived from the Warstein carbonate platform and the Scharfenberg reef. Though only locally developed, the breccia is important for the understanding of paleogeography and sedimentology in the Eastern Sauerland. Considering this breccia some gravitational-resedimentary slide movements between a high, consisting of reef carbonates, and a basin with flinz beds can be pointed out. From the uppermost Middle Devonian to the lowermost Lower Carboniferous several slides yielded the sedimentary components building up the 30 to 50 m thick polymict breccia. Some breccias were redeposited repeatedly as can be verified by different conodont maxima in single samples. Supplying area was the western part of the Warstein high, from which the slide masses glided off to the East and Southeast, more seldom to the West and Westsouthwest. All conodont zones from the upper Middle Devonian up to the lowermost Carboniferous could be identified in the Schlagwasser breccia. Therefore, an uninterrupted continuous sedimentation must have been prevalent in the supplying area; today this area nearly is denuded of flinz beds and cephalopod limestones. The slide masses spread transgressively to the East up to a substratum consisting of different units as massive limestone, flinz beds and cephalopod limestone; they are overlapped by Hangenberg beds, alum schists and siliceous rocks of the Lower Carboniferous. Parts of the substratum were transported during the progress of the slide masses. Proximal and distal parts of the flow masses can be distinguished by the diameter of the pebbles. Graded bedding and banking structures are marked only rarely. Way of transport was up to 3 km. Differently aged slide masses do not always overlap, but are placed side by side, too. Usually the slide masses do not spread out upon a greater area during sedimentation, but form closely limited debris flows. Synsedimentary fracturing and tilting of the reef platform, epirogenetic movements and seaquakes caused the slides. The entire formation period of the breccia includes about 20 millions of years. The longevity of the events points to solid paleomorphological situations around the eastern margin of the carbonate platform.

Ultimate and failure strengths of normal muds and serpentinite muds of ODP Leg 125 samples

Serpentinite seamounts in the Mariana forearc have been explained as diapirs rising from the Benioff zone. This hypothesis predicts that the serpentinites should have low strengths as well as low densities relative to the surrounding rocks. Drilling during Leg 125 showed that the materials forming Conical Seamount in the Mariana forearc and Torishima Forearc Seamount in the Izu-Bonin forearc are water-charged serpentinite muds of density <2 g/cm**3. Wykeham-Farrance torsion-vane tests showed that they are plastic solids with a rheology that bears many similarities to the idealized Cam clay soil model and is well described by critical-state soil mechanics. The serpentinite muds have ultimate strengths of 1.3 to 273.7 kPa and yield strengths of approximately 1.0 to 50 kPa. These muds thus are orders of magnitude weaker than salt and are, in fact, comparable in density and strength to common deep-sea clay muds. Such weak and low-density materials easily become diapiric. Serpentinite muds from the summit of Conical Seamount are weaker and more ductile than those on its flanks or on Torishima Forearc Seamount. Moreover, the summit muds do not contain the pronounced pure- and simple-shear fabrics that characterize those on the seamount flanks. The seamounts are morphologically similar to shield volcanoes, and anastomosing serpentinite debris flows descending from their summits are similar in map view to pahoehoe flows. These morphologic features, together with the physical properties of the muds and their similarities to other oceanic muds and the geochemistry of the entrained waters, suggest that many forearc serpentinite seamounts are gigantic (10-20 km wide, 1.5-2.0 km high) mud volcanoes that formed by the eruption of highly liquid serpentinite muds. Torishima Forearc Seamount, which is blanketed by more ìnormalî pelagic/volcaniclastic sediment, has probably been inactive since the Miocene. Conical Seamount, which seems to consist entirely of serpentinite mud and is venting fresh water of unusual chemistry from its summit, is presently active. Muds from the flanks of Conical Seamount are stronger and more brittle than those from the summit site, and muds from Torishima Forearc Seamount are stronger yet; this suggests that the serpentinite debris flows are compacted and dewatered as they mature. The shear fabrics probably result from downslope creep and flow, but may also be inherited.

Geochemistry of the volcanic basement of ODP Hole 134-831B

The basement of Bougainville Guyot drilled at Site 831 consists of andesitic hyalobreccias derived from a submarine arc volcano. The volcanic sequence has been dated by K/Ar at approximately 37 Ma. The 121 m of andesitic hyalobreccias drilled in Hole 831B have been divided into five subunits of two types: one appears to be primary, and the other contains evidence of reworking and a subaerial clastic input. Variations are attributed to fluctuations in water depth. The distinctive hyalobreccias consist of andesitic blebs with chilled margins and peripheral fractures set in a chaotic greenish matrix that is mainly altered glass, with crystals similar to those in the blebs or clasts. Their formation is attributed to violent reaction of andesitic magma discharged into seawater, in perhaps the submarine equivalent of fire-fountaining. There was limited reworking by currents and debris flows on the flanks of the submarine volcano. The andesite shows no significant compositional variation in phenocryst phases throughout the drilled sequence and contains phenocrysts of plagioclase (An88-43), clinopyroxene (Ca44Mg46Fe10-Ca41Mg40Fe19), orthopyroxene (Ca4Mg79Fe17-Ca3Mg58Fe39), and titanomagnetite. There is a systematic change in volcanic composition with height in the section, from more mafic andesites at the base, to overlying more acid andesites, and strong evidence exists that magma mixing may have played a significant role in the genesis of these lavas. The andesites have affinities with the low-K arc tholeiite series. Trace element and isotopic systematics for these rocks indicate very minor involvement of a LILE- and 87Sr-enriched slab-derived fluid in their petrogenesis. This accords with the previous suggestion that Bougainville Guyot forms part of an Eocene proto-island arc developed along the southern side of the d'Entrecasteaux Zone, above a southward-dipping subduction zone.