Probabilistic cost benefit analysis of generation investment in a deregulated electricity market

A new methodology is proposed for the analysis of generation capacity investment in a deregulated market environment. This methodology proposes to make the investment appraisal using a probabilistic framework. The probabilistic production simulation (PPC) algorithm is used to compute the expected energy generated, taking into account system load variations and plant forced outage rates, while the Monte Carlo approach has been applied to model the electricity price variability seen in a realistic network. The model is able to capture the price and hence the profitability uncertainties for generator companies. Seasonal variation in the electricity prices and the system demand are independently modeled. The method is validated on IEEE RTS system, augmented with realistic market and plant data, by using it to compare the financial viability of several generator investments applying either conventional or directly connected generator (powerformer) technologies. The significance of the results is assessed using several financial risk measures.

Cost-benefit analysis of climate change – A methodological overview of recent studies

Global warming16 has already begun. Climate change has become a self-propelling and self-reinforcing process as a result of the externality associated with greenhouse- gas (GHG) emissions. Although it is an externality related to humankind, according to a number of unique features we should distinguish it from other externalities. Climate change is a global phenomenon in its causes and consequences. The long-term and persistent impacts of climate change will likely continue over centuries without further anthropogenic mechanism. The preindustrial (equilibrium) level of GHG concentration in the atmosphere cannot be restored since it is irreversible, but if we do not stabilise the actual level of atmospheric concentration, the situation will become much worse than it is now. Assessing the impacts of climate change requires careful considerations because of the pervasive uncertainties and risks associated with it.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Climate Change (a Methodological Overview of Recent Studies)

This paper examines the methodological aspect of climate change, particularly the aggregation of costs and benefits induced by climate change on individuals, societies, economies and on the whole ecosystem. Assessing the total and/or marginal costs of environmental change is difficult because of wide range of factors that have to be involved. The subsequent study tries to capture the complexity of cost assessment on climate change therefore includes several critical factors such as scenarios and modeling, valuation and estimation, equity and discounting.

Ex Ante Cost Benefit Analyses of Community-Based DRR Interventions in the Caribbean

This report presents a study on the cost benefit analyses (CBA) and cost effectiveness analysis (CEA) of community-based disaster risk reduction (DRR) interventions in the Caribbean. The DRR interventions, implemented by the International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC), Port of Spain, in three Caribbean countries, Jamaica, Antigua & Barbuda, and Suriname, comprised the pilot phase of the Red Cross (RC) Project, Improving Climate Change Resilience of Caribbean Communities. This study is part of the endeavor by the DRR Program of Florida International University (FIU) and the United States Agency for International Development’s Office of the U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) to develop and foster DRR measures in the Latin American and Caribbean region since 2008.

A Hard Bargain? A cost-benefit analysis of an improved cookstove program in India

In developing countries, access to modern energy for cooking and heating still remains a challenge to raising households out of poverty. About 2.5 billion people depend on solid fuels such as biomass, wood, charcoal and animal dung. The use of solid fuels has negative outcomes for health, the environment and economic development (Universal Energy Access, UNDP). In low income countries, 1.3 million deaths occur due to indoor smoke or air pollution from burning solid fuels in small, confined and unventilated kitchens or homes. In addition, pollutants such as black carbon, methane and ozone, emitted when burning inefficient fuels, are responsible for a fraction of the climate change and air pollution. There are international efforts to promote the use of clean cookstoves in developing countries but limited evidence on the economic benefits of such distribution programs. This study undertook a systematic economic evaluation of a program that distributed subsidized improved cookstoves to rural households in India. The evaluation examined the effect of different levels of subsidies on the net benefits to the household and to society. This paper answers the question, “Ex post, what are the economic benefits to various stakeholders of a program that distributed subsidized improved cookstoves?” In addressing this question, the evaluation used empirical data from India applied to a cost-benefit model to examine how subsidies affect the costs and the benefits of the biomass improved cookstove and the electric improved cookstove to different stakeholders.

The role of muscarinic cholinergic signaling in cost-benefit decision making

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

A cost/benefit approach to performance analysis

Most performance engineering approaches focus on understanding the use of runtime resources. However such approaches do not quantify the value being provided in return for the consumption of these resources. Without such a measure it is not possible to compare the e ciency of these components (that is whether the runtime cost is reasonable given the bene t being provided). We have created an empirical approach that measures the value being provided by a code path in terms of the visible data it generates for the rest of the application. Combining this with traditional performance cost data, creates an e ciency measure for every code path in the application. We have evaluated our approach using the DaCapo benchmark suite, demonstrating our analysis allows us to quantify the e ciency of the code in each benchmark and nd real optimisation opportunities, providing improvements of up to 36% in our case studies.

A COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF A 25% RPS IN MICHIGAN

Michigan depends heavily on fossil fuels to generate electricity. Compared with fossil fuels, electricity generation from renewable energy produces less pollutants emissions. A Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is a mandate that requires electric utilities to generate a certain amount of electricity from renewable energy sources. This thesis applies the Cost-Benefits Analysis (CBA) method to investigate the impacts of implementing a 25% in Michigan by 2025. It is found that a 25% RPS will create about $20.12 billion in net benefits to the State. Moreover, if current tax credit policies will not change until 2025, its net present value will increase to about $26.59 billion. Based on the results of this CBA, a 25% RPS should be approved. The result of future studies on the same issue can be improved if more state specific data become available.

Public and private mitigation for natural disasters in Japan

An increasing number of studies analyze the relationship between natural disaster damage and income levels, but they do not consider the distinction between public and private disaster mitigation. This paper empirically distinguishes these two types of mitigation using Japanese prefectural panel data from 1975 to 2007. Our results show that public mitigation rather than private mitigation has contributed to mitigating the total damage resulting from natural disasters. Our estimation of cost-benefit ratios for each prefecture confirms that the mitigation efforts of urban prefectures are less effective than those of rural prefectures in focusing on both large and frequent/small disasters. Hence, urban prefectures need to reassess their public mitigation measures. Furthermore, to lessen the damage resulting from extreme catastrophes, policy makers are required to invest in improved mitigation infrastructures when faced with a high probability of disasters.

Quantifying differences between treated and untreated coir substrate

The aim of this project was to quantify differences between treated and untreated coir (coconut industrial residues) products and to identify differences in growth, yield and quality of cut flowers grown in different coir products. This has been brought about largely by the concern that some coir products, washed in low quality (saline) water may have detrimental effects on plant productivity and quality. There is concern in the flower production industry and among media suppliers, that lower quality products are favoured due to price alone, which as this project shows is a false economy. Specifically the project examined: • Differences in physical and chemical properties of treated and untreated coir along with another commonly used growing media in the flower industy; • Potential improvements in yield and quality of Gerbera (Gerbera jamesonii); • Potential differences in vase life of Gerbera as a result of the different growing media; and • Cost-benefit implications of treated (more expensive) coir substrate products versus untreated (less expensive) coir including any subsequent differences in yield and quality. By first examining the physical and some chemical properties of different coir substrates and other industry standard media, the researchers have been able to validate the concerns raised about the potential quality issues in coir based growing media. There was a great deal of variation in both the electrical conductivity and sodium contents. Physical properties were also variable as expected since manufacturers are able to target the specific physical preferences of plants through manipulation of the particle size distribution. A field trial was conducted under protected cropping practices in which three growing media were compared in terms of total productivity and also flower quality parameters such as stem length, flower diameter and vase life. The trial was a completely randomised design with the three growing media comprising treated coir discs, untreated coir discs and a pine bark coir mix. Four cultivars of Gerbera were assessed: Balance®; Carambole®; Dune® and Picobello®, all new products from Florist de Kwakel B.V., Denmark. Initial expansion from tissue culture was conducted at the Highsun Express Facility, Ormiston, Queensland. The trial included 12 replications of each cultivar in each media (a total of 144 plants) to ensure all data collected, and the derived conclusions were statistically rigorous. The coir supplied with no pre-treatment or buffering produced significantly less flowers than those grown in a pine bark coir mix or the pre-treated coir. Interestingly, the pine bark coir mix produced a greater number of flowers. However, the flowers produced in the pine bark coir mix were generally a shorter length stem. Productivity data, combined with flower quality data and component costs were all analysed through a cost/benefit economic model which showed that the greater revenue from better stem length outweighed the stem numbers, giving a cost benefit ratio of 2.58 for treated coir, 2.49 for untreated coir and 2.52 for pine bark coir mix. While this does not seem a large difference, when considering the number of plants a producer maintains can be upwards of 50,000 the difference in revenue would be, at a minimum $60,000 in this example. In conclusion, this project has found that there are significant effects on plant health, growth, yield and quality between those grown in treated and untreated coir. The outcome being growers can confidently invest in more expensive treated products with the assurance that benefits will outweigh initial cost. It is false economy to favour untreated coir products based on price alone. Producers should ensure they fully understand the production processes when purchasing growing media. Rather than targeting lower priced materials, it is recommended that quality be the highest priority in making this management decision. In making recommendations for future research and development it was important to consider conclusions from other researchers as well as those of the current project. It has been suggested that the media has greater longevity, which although not captured in this study could also lead to further cost efficiencies. Assessment of the products over a longer time period, and using a wider range of plant species are the major recommendations for further research to ensure greater understanding as to the importance in choosing the right growing media to meet specific needs.

The effects of eutrophication on alternative reproductive tactics in threespine sticklebacks

When organisms compete for mates and fertilisations, the process of sexual selection drives the evolution of traits that increase reproductive success. The traits targeted by selection, and the extent to which they change, are constrained by the local environment. Sexual selection due to female mate choice can be undermined by alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs), which refers to discontinuous variation in traits or behaviours used in reproduction. As human activities are rapidly changing our planet, this raises the question how ARTs will be affected. Fish show a bewildering diversity of ARTs, which make them good model organisms to answer these questions. One example of human-induced environmental change, which is affecting aquatic ecosystems around the world, is eutrophication, the over-enrichment of water bodies with nutrients. One of its effects is decreased underwater visibility due to increases in both turbidity and vegetation density. The aims of this thesis were to investigate the effects increased turbidity and vegetation density have on an ART in sticklebacks, a fish common to marine and fresh water bodies of the Northern hemisphere. I furthermore investigated how this affected sexual selection for male size, a trait commonly under selection. I used a combination of behavioural observations in microcosms, where I manipulated underwater visibility, with collection of genetic material to reconstruct parentage of broods, and thus identify sneak fertilisations. The results show that turbidity might have weak negative effects on the frequency of sneaking behaviour, although this behaviour was rather infrequent in these experiments, which complicates firm conclusions. In dense vegetation the number of sneak fertilisations decreased slightly, as fewer nesting males sneaked, while the number of non-nesting males sneaking remained constant. The paternity analyses revealed that a significantly smaller fraction of eggs was sneak fertilised under dense vegetation. Furthermore, amongst the nesting males that sneaked, the amount of eggs sneak fertilised correlated positively with courtship success. A reduction in sneaking by these males under dense vegetation equalised the distribution of fertilisation success, in turn contributing to a decrease in the opportunity for selection. Under dense vegetation significantly more males built nests, which has also been observed in previous field studies. In a separate experiment we addressed if such changes in the proportion of nesters and non-nesters, without changes in visibility, affected the incidence of sneak fertilisation. My results show this was not the case, likely because sneaking is an opportunistic tactic shown by both nesters and non-nesters. Non-nesters did sneak proportionately more when there were many of them, which could be due to changes in the cost-benefit ratio of sneaking. As nesters can only attack one intruder at a time, the costs and risks per sneaker will decrease as the number of sneakers increases. The defensive behaviours shown by the nesters before spawning shifted to a more aggressive form of nest defence. This could be because less aggressive behaviours lose their effectiveness when the number of intruders increases. It could also indicate that the risks associated with aggressive behaviours decrease when there are fewer fellow nesters, as other studies indicate nesters are competitive and aggressive individuals. Under turbid conditions I did not detect changes in the opportunity for selection, based on fertilisation success, nor was male size under significant selection under clear or turbid conditions. More thorough analyses under densely vegetated conditions across the nesting, courtship and fertilisation stages revealed a decrease in the opportunity for selection across all stages. A reduction in sneaking by nesters contributed to this. During the nesting stage, but not during later stages, body size was under significant directional selection under sparse, but not dense vegetation. This illustrates the importance of considering all selection stages to get a complete picture of how environmental changes affect sexual selection. Leaving out certain stages or subgroups can result in incomplete or misleading results.

Use of climate information for farm-level decision making: rainfed groundnut in southern India

The production of rainfed crops in semi-arid tropics exhibits large variation in response to the variation in seasonal rainfall. There are several farm-level decisions such as the choice of cropping pattern, whether to invest in fertilizers, pesticides etc., the choice of the period for planting, plant population density etc. for which the appropriate choice (associated with maximum production or minimum risk) depends upon the nature of the rainfall variability or the prediction for a specific year. In this paper, we have addressed the problem of identifying the appropriate strategies for cultivation of rainfed groundnut in the Anantapur region in a semi-arid part of the Indian peninsula. The approach developed involves participatory research with active collaboration with farmers, so that the problems with perceived need are addressed with the modern tools and data sets available. Given the large spatial variation of climate and soil, the appropriate strategies are necessarily location specific. With the approach adopted, it is possible to tap the detailed location specific knowledge of the complex rainfed ecosystem and gain an insight into the variety of options of land use and management practices available to each category of stakeholders. We believe such a participatory approach is essential for identifying strategies that have a favourable cost-benefit ratio over the region considered and hence are associated with a high chance of acceptance by the stakeholders. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.