The Green Paradox and Learning-by-doing in the Renewable Energy Sector

21 p.

Optimal procurement and contracting with research and development

Government procurement of a new good or service is a process that usually includes basic research, development, and production. Empirical evidences indicate that investments in research and development (R and D) before production are significant in many defense procurements. Thus, optimal procurement policy should not be only to select the most efficient producer, but also to induce the contractors to design the best product and to develop the best technology. It is difficult to apply the current economic theory of optimal procurement and contracting, which has emphasized production, but ignored R and D, to many cases of procurement.

In this thesis, I provide basic models of both R and D and production in the procurement process where a number of firms invest in private R and D and compete for a government contract. R and D is modeled as a stochastic cost-reduction process. The government is considered both as a profit-maximizer and a procurement cost minimizer. In comparison to the literature, the following results derived from my models are significant. First, R and D matters in procurement contracting. When offering the optimal contract the government will be better off if it correctly takes into account costly private R and D investment. Second, competition matters. The optimal contract and the total equilibrium R and D expenditures vary with the number of firms. The government usually does not prefer infinite competition among firms. Instead, it prefers free entry of firms. Third, under a R and D technology with the constant marginal returns-to-scale, it is socially optimal to have only one firm to conduct all of the R and D and production. Fourth, in an independent private values environment with risk-neutral firms, an informed government should select one of four standard auction procedures with an appropriate announced reserve price, acting as if it does not have any private information.

Paths Towards High Efficiency Silicon Photovoltaics

While photovoltaics hold much promise as a sustainable electricity source, continued cost reduction is necessary to continue the current growth in deployment. A promising path to continuing to reduce total system cost is by increasing device efficiency. This thesis explores several silicon-based photovoltaic technologies with the potential to reach high power conversion efficiencies. Silicon microwire arrays, formed by joining millions of micron diameter wires together, were developed as a low cost, low efficiency solar technology. The feasibility of transitioning this to a high efficiency technology was explored. In order to achieve high efficiency, high quality silicon material must be used. Lifetimes and diffusion lengths in these wires were measured and the action of various surface passivation treatments studied. While long lifetimes were not achieved, strong inversion at the silicon / hydrofluoric acid interface was measured, which is important for understanding a common measurement used in solar materials characterization.

Cryogenic deep reactive ion etching was then explored as a method for fabricating high quality wires and improved lifetimes were measured. As another way to reach high efficiency, growth of silicon-germanium alloy wires was explored as a substrate for a III-V on Si tandem device. Patterned arrays of wires with up to 12% germanium incorporation were grown. This alloy is more closely lattice matched to GaP than silicon and allows for improvements in III-V integration on silicon.

Heterojunctions of silicon are another promising path towards achieving high efficiency devices. The GaP/Si heterointerface and properties of GaP grown on silicon were studied. Additionally, a substrate removal process was developed which allows the formation of high quality free standing GaP films and has wide applications in the field of optics.

Finally, the effect of defects at the interface of the amorphous silicon heterojuction cell was studied. Excellent voltages, and thus efficiencies, are achievable with this system, but the voltage is very sensitive to growth conditions. We directly measured lateral transport lengths at the heterointerface on the order of tens to hundreds of microns, which allows carriers to travel towards any defects that are present and recombine. This measurement adds to the understanding of these types of high efficiency devices and may aid in future device design.

Highly flexible all-optical wavelength conversion at 2.488 Gbits/s using a multi-output-wavelength laser

An integrated multiwavelength grating cavity (MGC) laser fabricated by selective area regrowth is demonstrated. In addition to allowing wavelength conversion, the device can perform various important network functions such as space switching and multiplexing. The use of the device for these functions offers several advantages from a wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) network, such as flexibility, reduced component count, size, and the associated cost reduction.

Multi-dimensional conditional moment closure modelling applied to a heavy-duty common-rail diesel engine

A multi-dimensional combustion code implementing the Conditional Moment Closure turbulent combustion model interfaced with a well-established RANS two- phase flow field solver has been employed to study a broad range of operating conditions for a heavy duty direct-injection common-rail Diesel engine. These conditions include different loads (25%, 50%, 75% and full load) and engine speeds (1250 and 1830 RPM) and, with respect to the fuel path, different injection timings and rail pressures. A total of nine cases have been simulated. Excellent agreement with experimental data has been found for the pressure traces and the heat release rates, without adjusting any model constants. The chemical mechanism used contains a detailed NOx sub-mechanism. The predicted emissions agree reasonably well with the experimental data considering the range of operating points and given no adjustments of any rate constants have been employed. In an effort to identify CPU cost reduction potential, various dimensionality reduction strategies have been assessed. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the predictions with respect to resolution in particular relating to the CMC grid has been investigated. Overall, the results suggest that the presented modelling strategy has considerable predictive capability concerning Diesel engine combustion without requiring model constant calibration based on experimental data. This is true particularly for the heat release rates predictions and, to a lesser extent, for NOx emissions where further progress is still necessary. © 2009 SAE International.

Inserting innovations in-service

Military platforms have exceptionally long lifecycles and given the state of defense budgets there is a significant trend in sustaining the operational capability of legacy platforms for much greater periods than originally designed. In the context of through-life management, one of the key questions is how to manage the flow of technology for platform modernization during the in-service phase of the lifecycle? Inserting technological innovations in-service is achieved through technology insertion processes. Technology insertion is the pre-eminent activity for both maintaining and enhancing the functional capability of a platform especially given the likely changes in future military operations, the pace of change in technology and with the increasing focus on lifecycle cost reduction. This chapter provides an introduction to technology insertion together with an overview of the key issues that practitioners are faced with. As an aid to planning technology insertion projects, a decision-support framework is presented. © 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Simple adaptively modulated optical OFDM modems using subcarrier modulation with input/output reconfigurability

Three novel designs of adaptively modulated optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing modems using subcarrier modulation (AMOOFDM-SCM) are proposed, for the first time, each of which requires a single IFFT/FFT operation. These designs has a number of salient advantages including a significantly simplified modem configuration due to the involvement of a single IFFT/FFT operation, input/output reconfigurability, dynamic bandwidth allocation capability, cost reduction and system flexibility and performance robustness to variations in transmission link conditions. Investigations show that these three modems are capable of supporting >60Gb/s AMOOFDM-SCM signal transmission over 20km, 40km and 60km single-mode fibre-based intensity modulation and direct detection transmission links without optical amplification and chromatic dispersion compensation. Copyright © 2010 The authors.

Applying quality control in building energy modelling: Comparative simulation of a high performance building

Quality control is considered from the simulator's perspective through comparative simulation of an ultra energy-efficient building with EE4-DOE2.1E and EnergyPlus. The University of Calgary's Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design Platinum Child Development Centre, with a 66% certified energy cost reduction rating, was the case study building. A Natural Resources Canada incentive program required use of EE4 interface with DOE2.1E simulation engine for energy modelling. As DOE2.1E lacks specific features to simulate advanced systems such as radiant cooling in the CDC, an EnergyPlus model was developed to further evaluate these features. The EE4-DOE2.1E model was used for quality control during development of the base EnergyPlus model and simulation results were compared. Advanced energy systems then added to the EnergyPlus model generated small difference in estimated total annual energy use. The comparative simulation process helped identify the main input errors in the draft EnergyPlus model. The comparative use of less complex simulation programs is recommended for quality control when producing more complex models. © 2009 International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA).

Free energy surface reconstruction from umbrella samples using Gaussian process regression

We demonstrate how the Gaussian process regression approach can be used to efficiently reconstruct free energy surfaces from umbrella sampling simulations. By making a prior assumption of smoothness and taking account of the sampling noise in a consistent fashion, we achieve a significant improvement in accuracy over the state of the art in two or more dimensions or, equivalently, a significant cost reduction to obtain the free energy surface within a prescribed tolerance in both regimes of spatially sparse data and short sampling trajectories. Stemming from its Bayesian interpretation the method provides meaningful error bars without significant additional computation. A software implementation is made available on www.libatoms.org.

Forewarding in Mobile Opportunistic Networks

Recent advances in processor speeds, mobile communications and battery life have enabled computers to evolve from completely wired to completely mobile. In the most extreme case, all nodes are mobile and communication takes place at available opportunities – using both traditional communication infrastructure as well as the mobility of intermediate nodes. These are mobile opportunistic networks. Data communication in such networks is a difficult problem, because of the dynamic underlying topology, the scarcity of network resources and the lack of global information. Establishing end-to-end routes in such networks is usually not feasible. Instead a store-and-carry forwarding paradigm is better suited for such networks. This dissertation describes and analyzes algorithms for forwarding of messages in such networks. In order to design effective forwarding algorithms for mobile opportunistic networks, we start by first building an understanding of the set of all paths between nodes, which represent the available opportunities for any forwarding algorithm. Relying on real measurements, we enumerate paths between nodes and uncover what we refer to as the path explosion effect. The term path explosion refers to the fact that the number of paths between a randomly selected pair of nodes increases exponentially with time. We draw from the theory of epidemics to model and explain the path explosion effect. This is the first contribution of the thesis, and is a key observation that underlies subsequent results. Our second contribution is the study of forwarding algorithms. For this, we rely on trace driven simulations of different algorithms that span a range of design dimensions. We compare the performance (success rate and average delay) of these algorithms. We make the surprising observation that most algorithms we consider have roughly similar performance. We explain this result in light of the path explosion phenomenon. While the performance of most algorithms we studied was roughly the same, these algorithms differed in terms of cost. This prompted us to focus on designing algorithms with the explicit intent of reducing costs. For this, we cast the problem of forwarding as an optimal stopping problem. Our third main contribution is the design of strategies based on optimal stopping principles which we refer to as Delegation schemes. Our analysis shows that using a delegation scheme reduces cost over naive forwarding by a factor of O(√N), where N is the number of nodes in the network. We further validate this result on real traces, where the cost reduction observed is even greater. Our results so far include a key assumption, which is unbounded buffers on nodes. Next, we relax this assumption, so that the problem shifts to one of prioritization of messages for transmission and dropping. Our fourth contribution is the study of message prioritization schemes, combined with forwarding. Our main result is that one achieves higher performance by assigning higher priorities to young messages in the network. We again interpret this result in light of the path explosion effect.

Valuing drinking water provision as an ecosystem service in the neuse river basin

The valuation of ecosystem services such as drinking water provision is of growing national and international interest. The cost of drinking water provision is directly linked to the quality of its raw water input, which is itself affected by upstream land use patterns. This analysis employs the benefit transfer method to quantify the economic benefits of water quality improvements for drinking water production in the Neuse River Basin in North Carolina. Two benefit transfer approaches, value transfer and function transfer, are implemented by combining the results of four previously published studies with data collected from eight Neuse Basin water treatment plants. The mean net present value of the cost reduction estimates for the entire Neuse Basin ranged from $2.7 million to $16.6 million for a 30% improvement in water quality over a 30-year period. The value-transfer approach tended to produce larger expected benefits than the function-transfer approach, but both approaches produced similar results despite the differences in their methodologies, time frames, study sites, and assumptions. © 2010 ASCE.

Legitimising Quality Principles through Critical Incidents in Organisational Development

Purpose – The aim of this paper is to analyse how critical incidents or organisational crises can be used to check and legitimise quality management change efforts in relation to the fundamental principles of quality. Design/methodology/approach – Multiple case studies analyse critical incidents that demonstrate the importance of legitimisation, normative evaluation and conflict constructs in this process. A theoretical framework composed of these constructs is used to guide the analysis. Findings – The cases show that the critical incidents leading to the legitimisation of continuous improvement (CI) were diverse. However all resulted in the need for significant ongoing cost reduction to achieve or retain competitiveness. In addition, attempts at legitimising CI were coupled with attempts at destabilising the existing normative practice. This destabilisation process, in some cases, advocated supplementing the existing approaches and in others replacing them. In all cases, significant conflict arose in these legitimising and normative evaluation processes. Research limitations/implications – It is suggested that further research could involve a critical analysis of existing quality models, tools and techniques in relation to how they incorporate, and are built upon, fundamental quality management principles. Furthermore, such studies could probe the dangers of quality curriculum becoming divorced from business and market reality and thus creating a parallel existence. Practical implications – As demonstrated by the case studies, models, tools and techniques are not valued for their intrinsic value but rather for what they will contribute to addressing the business needs. Thus, in addition to being an opportunity for quality management, critical incidents present a challenge to the field. Quality management must be shown to make a contribution in these circumstances. Originality/value – This paper is of value to both academics and practitioners.

Overcoming Customer Dependency - A Case Study of Small Consumer Food Producers in Northern Ireland

Dependency on a small number of customer puts intense pressure on suppliers' profit margin and, in slow growing markets, limits their ability to grow. using stragtegic benchmarking information, a group of Northern Ireland consumer food producer are shown, depsite slow market growth and higher than averge customer dependency, to have increased market share while maintaining aboe vergate proitability. examination of the business strategic and develoment activites of the consumer food firms,and comparble information for other small food prodcuers in Ireland, suggests and emphasiss on cost-reduction and new prodcut development. A comparision of the productivity and prodcut range of the consuer food firms provides evidence of the success of these strategic. This suggests that even a relatively weak market situations, charactrised by dependency on a small number of customers, can be over come by effective and appropriate business strategy.

Evaluation of leukocyte dynamic in mouse retinal circulation with scanning laser ophthalmoloscopy (Video report)

http://bjo.bmj.com/content/suppl/2001/06/20/85.7.DC1 Leukocyte-endothelial cell interactions play an important role in the pathogenesis of various types of retinal vascular diseases, including diabetes, uveitis, and ischemic lesions. Over the last few years, several methods have been devised in which the scanning laser ophthalmoscope (SLO) is used to study leukocyte-endothelial interactions in vivo [1,2]. Previously we reported a noninvasive in vivo leukocyte tracking method using the SLO in rat. In this method, a nontoxic fluorescent agent (6-carboxyfluorescein diacetate, CFDA) was used to label leukocytes in vitro. Leukocyte velocities within the retinal and choroidal circulations were be quantified simultaneously [3]. None of the previous methods has been developed for imaging the murine fundus, mainly due to problems arising from the small size of the mouse eye. However, there are many advantages of using a murine model to study retinal vascular diseases such as enhanced genetic definition, increased range of reagents available for immunological studies and cost reduction. We have developed our SLO method such that we can track leukocytes in the mouse retinal and choroidal circulations.

Exploring consumer's preferences for farmed sea bream

Sea bream (Sparus aurata) production plays a significant part in Italian aquaculture, contributing to almost 18% of national pisciculture sales revenue. In recent years, Italian firms faced higher competition from countries with lower production costs. This prompted responses toward both cost reduction and product differentiation. The objective of this study was to investigate the preferences of Italian consumers for sea bream from fish farms, with a focus on aspects of product differentiation as gleaned from the analysis of the market situation: price, product origin, type and place of fish farming, and, in particular, type of feed. Data were collected with a consumers’ survey using personal interviews conducted on a questionnaire that included a choice experiment. Consumer preferences were analyzed with choice models based on stated preference data. The models made it possible to evaluate the potential of products with different combinations of attributes for which there is currently no market information available. In particular, the country of origin emerged as an important element of consumer choice, and to a lesser degree, organic certification and fish farming in marine cages also play a relevant role and may command a price premium.