Estimating the cost-effectiveness of modern screening mammography programmes

Context: The debate about the balance of risks and benefits of mammography screening has prompted a comprehensive review by an independent panel in the UK. However, the panel's remit did not cover the important economic dimension of breast cancer screening. Methods: The life histories of two cohort studies of 50-year-old women, who would be eligible within the National Health Service (NHS) breast screening programme (NHSBSP), were simulated over 35 years, using a life table approach. One cohort participant was offered screening at age 50 and triennially thereafter until age 70, assuming 75% attendance, while the other received no screening. Based on the findings from the panel's report, the cost-effectiveness of the NHSBSP was assessed for various scenarios of screening effect on breast cancer incidence (base case scenario: screening advances diagnosis by 5 years; 10% incidence reduction after screening stops).

Effect of immune pressure on hepatitis C virus evolution: insights from a single-source outbreak.

The host's immune response to hepatitis C virus (HCV) can result in the selection of characteristic mutations (adaptations) that enable the virus to escape this response. The ability of the virus to mutate at these sites is dependent on the incoming virus, the fitness cost incurred by the mutation, and the benefit to the virus in escaping the response. Studies examining viral adaptation in chronic HCV infection have shown that these characteristic immune escape mutations can be observed at the population level as human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-specific viral polymorphisms. We examined 63 individuals with chronic HCV infection who were infected from a single HCV genotype 1b source. Our aim was to determine the extent to which the host's immune pressure affects HCV diversity and the ways in which the sequence of the incoming virus, including preexisting escape mutations, can influence subsequent mutations in recipients and infection outcomes. Conclusion: HCV sequences from these individuals revealed 29 significant associations between specific HLA types within the new hosts and variations within their viruses, which likely represent new viral adaptations. These associations did not overlap with previously reported adaptations for genotypes 1a and 3a and possibly reflected a combination of constraint due to the incoming virus and genetic distance between the strains. However, these sites accounted for only a portion of the sites in which viral diversity was observed in the new hosts. Furthermore, preexisting viral adaptations in the incoming (source) virus likely influenced the outcomes in the new hosts.

One kind of lawlessness: estimating the welfare cost of Somali piracy

This paper estimates the effect of piracy attacks on shipping costs using a unique data set on shipping contracts in the dry bulk market. We look at shipping routes whose shortest path exposes them to piracy attacks and find that the increase in attacks in 2008 lead to around a ten percent increase in shipping costs. We use this estimate to get a sense of the welfare loss imposed by piracy. Our intermediate estimate suggests that the creation of $120 million of revenue for pirates in the Somalia area led to a welfare loss of over $1.5 billion.

Effect of an overground walking training on gait performance in healthy 65- to 80-year-olds.

The aim of this study was to examine the effect of an individualized overground walking interval training on gait performance [i.e., speed and energy cost (C(w))] in healthy elderly individuals. Twenty-two older adults were assigned to either a training group (TG; n=12, 73.4+/-3.9yr) or a non-training control group (CG; n=10, 70.9+/-9.6yr). TG participated in a 7-week individualized walking interval training at intensities progressing from 50 to 100% of ventilatory threshold (T (VE)). Aerobic fitness [maximal oxygen uptake (V O(2max)) and T (VE)], preferred walking speed (PWS), gross and net C(w) (GC(w) and NC(w), respectively) and relative effort (%V O(2max)) at PWS measured before training (PWS(1)) were assessed prior and following the intervention. All outcomes were measured on a treadmill. Significant improvements in GC(w) (-8%; P=0.007), NC(w) (-12%; P=0.003), relative effort (%V O(2max): -12%; P<0.001) and PWS (+12%; P<0.001) were observed in TG but not in CG (P>0.71). V O(2max) and T (VE) remained unchanged in both groups (P>0.57). Changes in GC(w) at PWS(1) (difference between GC(w) at PWS(1) measured pre and post intervention) were inversely correlated with changes in PWS (difference between pre and post PWS; r=-0.67; P=0.02). The decreased C(w) at PWS(1), with no concomitant improvement in aerobic fitness, represents the main contributing factor for the reduction of the relative effort at this speed. This also allows elderly people to increase their PWS post training. Therefore, the present walking training may be an effective way to improve walking performance and delay mobility impairment in older adults.

Approche multidisciptinaire des coûts humains des lombalgies [Human cost of low back pain: a multi-disciplinary approach]

The valuation of human costs is a necessity, but this task poses many problems of method. A team made of a philosopher, a psychologist and a physician has been working with economist researchers in order to look into the meaning that the preferences announced at the time of the inquiries on human costs by QALY methods could assume. These methods are often used to obtain a valuation of the impact of a health attack on people's quality of life. The methods--in the frame of the argument assumed by the economic theory on well-being--hypothesize that people's choices depend mainly on cognitive work. The qualitative interviews show that the psychological construction process for the announced preferences largely overlap this frame. In this paper the authors hastily tackle the factors which have an effect on the preferences. They conclude that the QALY methods don't seem to be able to assess the quality of life nori to valuate the damage that the quality of life could include.

Effect of biomagnetic therapy versus physiotherapy for treatment of knee osteoarthritis: a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of pulsed signal therapy in the treatment of knee osteoarthritis (Kellgren II or III). METHODS: A randomized, double-blind controlled clinical trial. The first 95 patients sent to the clinic with knee osteo-arthritis were selected and randomized into treatment with pulsed signal therapy or conventional physiotherapy. Assessment included recording of usual demographic data, pertinent history, baseline medication and radiographs. Clinical evaluation was made at baseline, 6 weeks and 6 months after the end of treatment by the same blinded doctor. At each follow-up time, the patient was asked to complete a visual analogue pain scale and a Lequesne score. The doctor recorded the degree of pain on motion and the ability to move the affected knee. RESULTS: Both treatments resulted in significant improvements in pain and physical function. A statistical difference was observed only for activities of daily living, where the physiotherapy was more efficient (p<0.03). The cost of treatment with pulsed signal therapy was significantly higher, double the treatment cost of conventional physiotherapy. CONCLUSION: Like physiotherapy, pulsed signal therapy has improved the clinical state of treated patients but with no significant statistical difference. Pulsed signal therapy is, however, more expensive.

The wage effect of an indexation clause: Evidence from Spanish manufacturing firms

An endogenous switching model of ex-ante wage changes under indexed and non-indexed settlements is estimated for the Spanish manufacturing sector using collective bargaining firm data for the 1984-1991 period. The likelihood of indexing the settlement is higher for nationwide unions than for other union groups within the works council and increases with the expected level of inflation. For wage change equations, a common structure for indexed and non-indexed settlements is strongly rejected, showing a source of nominal rigidity. For indexed contracts, the expected ex-ante total inflation coverage is nearly complete. It is also shown that workers pay a significant ex-ante wage change premium (differential) to obtain a cost of living allowance clause. However, the realised contingent compensation exceeds such a premium for all industries. Finally, important spillover effects in wage setting and the decision to index the settlement have been detected.

Cost effectiveness and cost utility of risedronate for osteoporosis treatment and fracture prevention in women: a Swiss perspective.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of risedronate compared to no intervention in postmenopausal osteoporotic women in a Swiss perspective. METHODS: A previously validated Markov model was populated with epidemiological and cost data specific to Switzerland and published utility values, and run on a population of 1,000 women of 70 years with established osteoporosis and previous vertebral fracture, treated over 5 years with risedronate 35 mg weekly or no intervention (base case), and five cohorts (according to age at therapy start) with eight risk factor distributions and three lengths of residual effects. RESULTS: In the base case population, the ICER of averting a hip fracture and the ICUR per quality-adjusted life year gained were both dominant. In the presence of a previous vertebral fracture, the ICUR was below euro45,000 (pound30,000) in all the scenarios. For all osteoporotic women>or=70 years of age with at least one risk factor, the ICUR was below euro45,000 or the intervention may even be cost saving. Age at the start of therapy and the fracture risk profile had a significant impact on results. CONCLUSION: Assuming a 2-year residual effect, that ICUR of risedronate in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis is below accepted thresholds from the age of 65 and even cost saving above the age of 70 with at least one risk factor.

Prescription footwear for severe injuries of foot and ankle: effect on regularity and symmetry of the gait assessed by trunk accelerometry.

After foot and/or ankle fracture, the restoration of optimal gait symmetry is one of the criteria of recovery. Orthotic insoles and orthopaedic shoes improve gait symmetry and regularity by controlling joint motion and improving alignment. The aim of the present study was to assess the effect of prescription footwear on gait quality by using accelerometers attached to the lower back. Sixteen adult patients with persistent disability after ankle and/or foot fractures performed two 30-s walking trials with and without prescription footwear (insoles and stabilizing shoes). Sixteen control subjects were also tested for comparison. The autocorrelation function was computed from the acceleration signal and the first two dominant periods were assessed (d1 and d2). Two parameters were used: (1) Stride Regularity (SR) which expresses the similarity between strides over time (d2), and (2) Stride Symmetry (SS) a ratio (d1/d2) which expresses the left/right similarity of gait independently of repeatability in the successive movements of each limb. In control subjects, SR and SS were 0.86+/-0.05 (correlation coefficient) and 81+/-10%, respectively. In the patient group, the effect of footwear was significant (SR: 0.88+/-0.06 vs. 0.90+/-0.05, SS: 38+/-23% vs. 46+/-27%). Pain was also significantly reduced (-34%). By using a rapid and low-cost method, we objectively quantified gait quality improvement after footwear intervention, concomitant to pain reduction. Substantial inter-patient variability in the footwear outcome was observed. In conclusion, we believe that trunk accelerometry can be a useful tool in the field of gait rehabilitation.

Cost limitation through constrained oviposition site in a plant-pollinator/seed predator mutualism

Mutualism often involves reciprocal exploitation due to individual selection for increased benefits even at the expense of the partner. Therefore, stability and outcomes of such interactions crucially depend on cost limitation mechanisms. In the plant, pollinator /seed predator interaction between Silene latifolia (Caryophyllaceae) and Hadena bicruris (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), moths generate pollination benefits as adults but impose seed predation costs as larvae. We examined whether floral morphology limits over-exploitation by constraining oviposition site. Oviposition site varies naturally inside vs. outside the corolla tube, but neither its determinants nor its effect on the interaction have been investigated. In a common garden with plants originating from eight populations, corolla tube length predicted oviposition site, but not egg presence or pollination efficiency, suggesting that long corolla tubes constrain the moth to lay eggs on petals. Egg position was also predicted by the combined effect of corolla tube and moth ovipositor lengths, with shorter ovipositor than corolla tube resulting in higher probability for eggs outside. Egg position on a given plant was repeatable over different exposure nights. When egg position was experimentally manipulated, eggs placed on the petal resulted in significantly fewer successful fruit attacks compared with eggs placed inside the corolla tube, suggesting differences in egg/larval mortality. Egg position also differently affected larval mass, fruit mass and fruit development. Our results indicate that constraining oviposition site through a long corolla tube reduces seed predation costs suffered by the plant without negatively affecting pollination efficiency and, hence may act to limit over-exploitation. However, the net effects of corolla tube depth variation on this interaction may fluctuate with extrinsic factors affecting egg mortality, and with patterns of gene flow affecting trait matching between the interacting species. The intermediate fitness costs incurred by both plant and insect associated with the different egg positions may reduce selective pressures for this interaction to evolve towards antagonism, favouring instead a mutualistic outcome. While a role for oviposition site variation in cost limitation is a novel finding in this system, it may apply more generally also to other mutualisms involving pollinating seed predators.

Effect of Wildlife Highway Warning Reflectors on Deer-Vehicle Accident, December 1984

he number of deer-vehicle accidents in Iowa and around the country has steadily increased during the past 30 years. This i s basically due to: ( 1 ) increased volume of traffic; 12) an expanding network of hard surface roads, especially 4 lane interstates; and (3) a general increase in deer populations. Initidtion of a 55 MPH speed limit in 1974 and gasoline shortages in 1975 reduced deer-vehicle accident rates briefly, but since 1975, rates have continued to climb. Various methods of reducinq these accidents have been attempted in other states. These include: instal lation of rc?flective devlres, deer crossing signs, fencing, underpasses, clearing right--of--waysa,n d controlled hunting to reduce deer population s i z e . These methods have met with varying degrees of success, depending on animal behavior, deet- population fluctuations, method used, topoyr-aphy, road-side vegetation, traffic patterns, and highway configuration. This project was designed to evaluate a new ntethod of reducing deer-vehicle accidents. There are qenerally 4 important aspects of deer-vehicle accidents: danger to human l i f e , vehicle damage, loss of a valuable wildlife resource, and cost of processing accident reports. In !owe, during 1983, there were over 15,OOC) reported deer--vehicle accidents and probably many more that were not reported (Gladfelter 1984). The extent of human injury or death in Iowa i s not known, but studies in southern Michigan show that human injur ies occurred in about 4% of the deer-vehicle accidents (A1 lcn and MrCullough 1976). T h i s would indicate that in Iowa there could have been 200 human injury cases from deer-vehicle accidents i n 1983. These injuries usual 1 occur from secondary collisions when motorists try to avoid a deer on the highway, and hit some other object Vehicle darnaye from these accidents can into thousands of dollars because of the high speed involved and the size of the animal. The total amount of vehicle damage occurring in Iowa is unknown, but if the average vehicle damage was between $500-$800 per accident, estimated property damage would be between $2 1/2--$4 million annually. The value of deer lost in these accidents cannot be estimated, but recreational potential of this natural resource is surely diminished for hunters and wildlife enthusiasts. Also, there ir a great deal of money spent by governmental agencies for manpower to process accident reports and remove dead animals from highways.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a European primary-care physician training in smoking cessation counseling.

BACKGROUND: Physician training in smoking cessation counseling has been shown to be effective as a means to increase quit success. We assessed the cost-effectiveness ratio of a smoking cessation counseling training programme. Its effectiveness was previously demonstrated in a cluster randomized, control trial performed in two Swiss university outpatients clinics, in which residents were randomized to receive training in smoking interventions or a control educational intervention. DESIGN AND METHODS: We used a Markov simulation model for effectiveness analysis. This model incorporates the intervention efficacy, the natural quit rate, and the lifetime probability of relapse after 1-year abstinence. We used previously published results in addition to hospital service and outpatient clinic cost data. The time horizon was 1 year, and we opted for a third-party payer perspective. RESULTS: The incremental cost of the intervention amounted to US$2.58 per consultation by a smoker, translating into a cost per life-year saved of US$25.4 for men and 35.2 for women. One-way sensitivity analyses yielded a range of US$4.0-107.1 in men and US$9.7-148.6 in women. Variations in the quit rate of the control intervention, the length of training effectiveness, and the discount rate yielded moderately large effects on the outcome. Variations in the natural cessation rate, the lifetime probability of relapse, the cost of physician training, the counseling time, the cost per hour of physician time, and the cost of the booklets had little effect on the cost-effectiveness ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Training residents in smoking cessation counseling is a very cost-effective intervention and may be more efficient than currently accepted tobacco control interventions.

Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in Switzerland: a comprehensive quality control report on centre effect.

Interest groups advocate centre-specific outcome data as a useful tool for patients in choosing a hospital for their treatment and for decision-making by politicians and the insurance industry. Haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) requires significant infrastructure and represents a cost-intensive procedure. It therefore qualifies as a prime target for such a policy. We made use of the comprehensive database of the Swiss Blood Stem Cells Transplant Group (SBST) to evaluate potential use of mortality rates. Nine institutions reported a total of 4717 HSCT - 1427 allogeneic (30.3%), 3290 autologous (69.7%) - in 3808 patients between the years 1997 and 2008. Data were analysed for survival- and transplantation-related mortality (TRM) at day 100 and at 5 years. The data showed marked and significant differences between centres in unadjusted analyses. These differences were absent or marginal when the results were adjusted for disease, year of transplant and the EBMT risk score (a score incorporating patient age, disease stage, time interval between diagnosis and transplantation, and, for allogeneic transplants, donor type and donor-recipient gender combination) in a multivariable analysis. These data indicate comparable quality among centres in Switzerland. They show that comparison of crude centre-specific outcome data without adjustment for the patient mix may be misleading. Mandatory data collection and systematic review of all cases within a comprehensive quality management system might, in contrast, serve as a model to ascertain the quality of other cost-intensive therapies in Switzerland.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Sequential Warning Lights in Nighttime Work Zone Tapers, TPF-5(081), 2011

Improving safety at nighttime work zones is important because of the extra visibility concerns. The deployment of sequential lights is an innovative method for improving driver recognition of lane closures and work zone tapers. Sequential lights are wireless warning lights that flash in a sequence to clearly delineate the taper at work zones. The effectiveness of sequential lights was investigated using controlled field studies. Traffic parameters were collected at the same field site with and without the deployment of sequential lights. Three surrogate performance measures were used to determine the impact of sequential lights on safety. These measures were the speeds of approaching vehicles, the number of late taper merges and the locations where vehicles merged into open lane from the closed lane. In addition, an economic analysis was conducted to monetize the benefits and costs of deploying sequential lights at nighttime work zones. The results of this study indicates that sequential warning lights had a net positive effect in reducing the speeds of approaching vehicles, enhancing driver compliance, and preventing passenger cars, trucks and vehicles at rural work zones from late taper merges. Statistically significant decreases of 2.21 mph mean speed and 1 mph 85% speed resulted with sequential lights. The shift in the cumulative speed distributions to the left (i.e. speed decrease) was also found to be statistically significant using the Mann-Whitney and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. But a statistically significant increase of 0.91 mph in the speed standard deviation also resulted with sequential lights. With sequential lights, the percentage of vehicles that merged earlier increased from 53.49% to 65.36%. A benefit-cost ratio of around 5 or 10 resulted from this analysis of Missouri nighttime work zones and historical crash data. The two different benefitcost ratios reflect two different ways of computing labor costs.

Does human capital stimulate investment in physical capital?: Evidence from a cost system framework

The direct effect of human capital on economic growth has been widely analysed in the economic literature. This paper, however, focuses on its indirect effect as a stimulus for private investment in physical capital. The methodological framework used is the duality theory, estimating a cost system aggregated with human capital. Empirical evidence is given for Spain for the period 1980-2000. We provide evidence on the indirect effect of human capital in making private capital investment more attractive. Among the main explanations forthis process, we observe that higher worker skill levels enable higher returns to be extracted from investment in physical capital.