On the estimation and comparison of short-rate models using the generalised method of moments

Subsequent to the influential paper of [Chan, K.C., Karolyi, G.A., Longstaff, F.A., Sanders, A.B., 1992. An empirical comparison of alternative models of the short-term interest rate. Journal of Finance 47, 1209-1227], the generalised method of moments (GMM) has been a popular technique for estimation and inference relating to continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate. GMM has been widely employed to estimate model parameters and to assess the goodness-of-fit of competing short-rate specifications. The current paper conducts a series of simulation experiments to document the bias and precision of GMM estimates of short-rate parameters, as well as the size and power of [Hansen, L.P., 1982. Large sample properties of generalised method of moments estimators. Econometrica 50, 1029-1054], J-test of over-identifying restrictions. While the J-test appears to have appropriate size and good power in sample sizes commonly encountered in the short-rate literature, GMM estimates of the speed of mean reversion are shown to be severely biased. Consequently, it is dangerous to draw strong conclusions about the strength of mean reversion using GMM. In contrast, the parameter capturing the levels effect, which is important in differentiating between competing short-rate specifications, is estimated with little bias. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measuring graph similarity through continuous-time quantum walks and the quantum Jensen-Shannon divergence

In this paper we propose a quantum algorithm to measure the similarity between a pair of unattributed graphs. We design an experiment where the two graphs are merged by establishing a complete set of connections between their nodes and the resulting structure is probed through the evolution of continuous-time quantum walks. In order to analyze the behavior of the walks without causing wave function collapse, we base our analysis on the recently introduced quantum Jensen-Shannon divergence. In particular, we show that the divergence between the evolution of two suitably initialized quantum walks over this structure is maximum when the original pair of graphs is isomorphic. We also prove that under special conditions the divergence is minimum when the sets of eigenvalues of the Hamiltonians associated with the two original graphs have an empty intersection.

Node centrality for continuous-time quantum walks

The study of complex networks has recently attracted increasing interest because of the large variety of systems that can be modeled using graphs. A fundamental operation in the analysis of complex networks is that of measuring the centrality of a vertex. In this paper, we propose to measure vertex centrality using a continuous-time quantum walk. More specifically, we relate the importance of a vertex to the influence that its initial phase has on the interference patterns that emerge during the quantum walk evolution. To this end, we make use of the quantum Jensen-Shannon divergence between two suitably defined quantum states. We investigate how the importance varies as we change the initial state of the walk and the Hamiltonian of the system. We find that, for a suitable combination of the two, the importance of a vertex is almost linearly correlated with its degree. Finally, we evaluate the proposed measure on two commonly used networks. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

A quantum Jensen-Shannon graph kernel using the continuous-time quantum walk

In this paper, we use the quantum Jensen-Shannon divergence as a means to establish the similarity between a pair of graphs and to develop a novel graph kernel. In quantum theory, the quantum Jensen-Shannon divergence is defined as a distance measure between quantum states. In order to compute the quantum Jensen-Shannon divergence between a pair of graphs, we first need to associate a density operator with each of them. Hence, we decide to simulate the evolution of a continuous-time quantum walk on each graph and we propose a way to associate a suitable quantum state with it. With the density operator of this quantum state to hand, the graph kernel is defined as a function of the quantum Jensen-Shannon divergence between the graph density operators. We evaluate the performance of our kernel on several standard graph datasets from bioinformatics. We use the Principle Component Analysis (PCA) on the kernel matrix to embed the graphs into a feature space for classification. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.

A continuous-time quantum walk kernel for unattributed graphs

Kernel methods provide a way to apply a wide range of learning techniques to complex and structured data by shifting the representational problem from one of finding an embedding of the data to that of defining a positive semidefinite kernel. In this paper, we propose a novel kernel on unattributed graphs where the structure is characterized through the evolution of a continuous-time quantum walk. More precisely, given a pair of graphs, we create a derived structure whose degree of symmetry is maximum when the original graphs are isomorphic. With this new graph to hand, we compute the density operators of the quantum systems representing the evolutions of two suitably defined quantum walks. Finally, we define the kernel between the two original graphs as the quantum Jensen-Shannon divergence between these two density operators. The experimental evaluation shows the effectiveness of the proposed approach. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.

Approximate axial symmetries from continuous time quantum walks

The analysis of complex networks is usually based on key properties such as small-worldness and vertex degree distribution. The presence of symmetric motifs on the other hand has been related to redundancy and thus robustness of the networks. In this paper we propose a method for detecting approximate axial symmetries in networks. For each pair of nodes, we define a continuous-time quantum walk which is evolved through time. By measuring the probability that the quantum walker to visits each node of the network in this time frame, we are able to determine whether the two vertices are symmetrical with respect to any axis of the graph. Moreover, we show that we are able to successfully detect approximate axial symmetries too. We show the efficacy of our approach by analysing both synthetic and real-world data. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Discrete time models of the term structure of interest rates and interest rate contingent claims

In this study, discrete time one-factor models of the term structure of interest rates and their application to the pricing of interest rate contingent claims are examined theoretically and empirically. The first chapter provides a discussion of the issues involved in the pricing of interest rate contingent claims and a description of the Ho and Lee (1986), Maloney and Byrne (1989), and Black, Derman, and Toy (1990) discrete time models. In the second chapter, a general discrete time model of the term structure from which the Ho and Lee, Maloney and Byrne, and Black, Derman, and Toy models can all be obtained is presented. The general model also provides for the specification of an additional model, the ExtendedMB model. The third chapter illustrates the application of the discrete time models to the pricing of a variety of interest rate contingent claims. In the final chapter, the performance of the Ho and Lee, Black, Derman, and Toy, and ExtendedMB models in the pricing of Eurodollar futures options is investigated empirically. The results indicate that the Black, Derman, and Toy and ExtendedMB models outperform the Ho and Lee model. Little difference in the performance of the Black, Derman, and Toy and ExtendedMB models is detected. ^

Hybrid stochastic simulations of intracellular reaction-diffusion systems.

With the observation that stochasticity is important in biological systems, chemical kinetics have begun to receive wider interest. While the use of Monte Carlo discrete event simulations most accurately capture the variability of molecular species, they become computationally costly for complex reaction-diffusion systems with large populations of molecules. On the other hand, continuous time models are computationally efficient but they fail to capture any variability in the molecular species. In this study a hybrid stochastic approach is introduced for simulating reaction-diffusion systems. We developed an adaptive partitioning strategy in which processes with high frequency are simulated with deterministic rate-based equations, and those with low frequency using the exact stochastic algorithm of Gillespie. Therefore the stochastic behavior of cellular pathways is preserved while being able to apply it to large populations of molecules. We describe our method and demonstrate its accuracy and efficiency compared with the Gillespie algorithm for two different systems. First, a model of intracellular viral kinetics with two steady states and second, a compartmental model of the postsynaptic spine head for studying the dynamics of Ca+2 and NMDA receptors.

Martingálmértékek és a várható diszkontált jelenérték szabály (Martingale measures and the law of the discounted present value)

A dolgozatban a legegyszerűbb kérdést feszegetjük: Hogyan kell az árakat meghatározni véletlen jövőbeli kifizetések esetén. A tárgyalás némiképpen absztrakt, de a funkcionálanalízis néhány közismert tételén kívül semmilyen más mélyebb matematikai területre nem kell hivatkozni. A dolgozat kérdése, hogy miként indokolható a várható jelenérték szabálya, vagyis hogy minden jövőbeli kifizetés jelen időpontban érvényes ára a jövőbeli kifizetés diszkontált várható értéke. A dologban az egyetlen csavar az, hogy a várható értékhez tartozó valószínűségi mértékről nem tudunk semmit. Csak annyit tudunk, hogy létezik a matematikai pénzügyek legtöbbet hivatkozott fogalma, a misztikus Q mérték. A dolgozat megírásának legfontosabb indoka az volt, hogy megpróbáltam kiiktatni a megengedett portfólió fogalmát a származtatott termékek árazásának elméletéből. Miként közismert, a származtatott termékek árazásának elmélete a fedezés fogalmára épül. (...) ____ In the article the author discusses some problems of the existence of the martingale measure. In continuous time models one should restrict the set of self financing portfolios and introduce the concept of the admissible portfolios. But to define the admissible portfolios one should either define them under the martingale measure or to turn the set of admissible portfolios to a cone which makes the interpretation of the pricing formula difficult.

Bayesian updating rules in continuous opinion dynamics models

Here, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling how social agents change their minds in the case of continuous opinion models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a uniform distribution. This represents the idea that the other agent might have no idea about what is being talked about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied, and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the bounded confidence models. On also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run, as agents become more stubborn with time. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.

A new method for analysing the equilibrium and time-dependent behaviour of Markovian models

Many large-scale stochastic systems, such as telecommunications networks, can be modelled using a continuous-time Markov chain. However, it is frequently the case that a satisfactory analysis of their time-dependent, or even equilibrium, behaviour is impossible. In this paper, we propose a new method of analyzing Markovian models, whereby the existing transition structure is replaced by a more amenable one. Using rates of transition given by the equilibrium expected rates of the corresponding transitions of the original chain, we are able to approximate its behaviour. We present two formulations of the idea of expected rates. The first provides a method for analysing time-dependent behaviour, while the second provides a highly accurate means of analysing equilibrium behaviour. We shall illustrate our approach with reference to a variety of models, giving particular attention to queueing and loss networks. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Models of Alternating Renewal Process at Discrete Time

We study a class of models used with success in the modelling of climatological sequences. These models are based on the notion of renewal. At first, we examine the probabilistic aspects of these models to afterwards study the estimation of their parameters and their asymptotical properties, in particular the consistence and the normality. We will discuss for applications, two particular classes of alternating renewal processes at discrete time. The first class is defined by laws of sojourn time that are translated negative binomial laws and the second class, suggested by Green is deduced from alternating renewal process in continuous time with sojourn time laws which are exponential laws with parameters α^0 and α^1 respectively.

Some misspecfication problems in long-memory time series models

Doctor of Philosophy in Mathematics

Directed Abelian algebras and their application to stochastic models

With each directed acyclic graph (this includes some D-dimensional lattices) one can associate some Abelian algebras that we call directed Abelian algebras (DAAs). On each site of the graph one attaches a generator of the algebra. These algebras depend on several parameters and are semisimple. Using any DAA, one can define a family of Hamiltonians which give the continuous time evolution of a stochastic process. The calculation of the spectra and ground-state wave functions (stationary state probability distributions) is an easy algebraic exercise. If one considers D-dimensional lattices and chooses Hamiltonians linear in the generators, in finite-size scaling the Hamiltonian spectrum is gapless with a critical dynamic exponent z=D. One possible application of the DAA is to sandpile models. In the paper we present this application, considering one- and two-dimensional lattices. In the one-dimensional case, when the DAA conserves the number of particles, the avalanches belong to the random walker universality class (critical exponent sigma(tau)=3/2). We study the local density of particles inside large avalanches, showing a depletion of particles at the source of the avalanche and an enrichment at its end. In two dimensions we did extensive Monte-Carlo simulations and found sigma(tau)=1.780 +/- 0.005.