A DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SEASONAL VARIATION OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS IN THE NORTHERN REGION OF THE TODOS OS SANTOS BAY (BAHIA, BRAZIL)

The results obtained in the August and December 2003, August 2004 and January 2005 oceanographic campaigns in the northern region of the Todos os Santos Bay (lat. 12 degrees 44.5`S; long. 038 degrees 35.00`W) between the Madre de Deus and Mare islands are analyzed. Instruments of continuous and discrete samplings were used to measure hydrographic properties currents and tides. The water mass of the northern region of the bay is forced by semidiurnal and mesotides of form number 0.08 and the lunar component M(2) height was estimated at 91cm. The time series of the surface currents indicated movements in the N/S direction, forced by the tide with maximum magnitudes of 0.73 m.s(-1) on the December 2003 campaign. However, in August 2004 the currents were dominated by the wind stress forcing, with a maximum speed of 1.85 m.s(-1) and SE direction. Near the bottom, the influence of the tide is not as evident, with a decrease in intensity due to internal and bottom friction, with a maximum velocity of 0.17 m.s(-1). The thermal and haline structures were weakly horizontally, as well as vertically stratified, with extreme values varying in the intervals 23 degrees C (August, 2004) to 28 degrees C (December, 2003) and 31.0 psu (August, 2003) to 36.0 psu (December, 2003), respectively. Some conclusions may be drawn from these results: i) The signs of the dilution of the fresh water discharges of the Caipe, Mataripe and Sao Paulo rivers in the region under the influence of the RLAM were observed only during the winter periods, but in the summer the region was flooded by waters of oceanic origin and the salinities above 36.0 indicated TW mass intrusion; ii) The N-S circulation near the RLAM is strongly dominated by the tide, and the importance of the M(2) component was unequivocal, however, the E-W component presented some tidal modulation away from abrupt bottom topographical changes, and iii) The residual series, calculated as the difference between the original and modeled, is about 1/4 of the original and confirmed its semidiurnal character.

Continuous enzymatic interesterification of lard and soybean oil blend: Effects of different flow rates on physical properties and acyl migration

Continuous enzymatic interesterification is an alternative to chemical interesterification for lipid modification technology which is economically viable for large scale use. A blend of 70% lard and 30% soybean oil was submitted to continuous enzymatic interesterification in a glass tubular bioreactor at flow rate ranging from 0.5 to 4.5 mL/min. The original mixture and the reaction products obtained were examined to determine melting and crystallization behavior by DSC, and analyzed for regiospecific fatty acid distribution. Continuous enzymatic interesterification changed the mixture, forming a new triacylglycerol composition, verified by DSC curves and variation in enthalpy of melting values. The regiospecific distribution of fatty acids was changed by flow variations in the reactor. In the continuous enzymatic interesterification reaction the flow rate of 4.5 mL/min, was more advantageous than slower flow rates, reducing acyl migration and increasing process productivity. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Disagreements in meta-analyses using outcomes measured on continuous or rating scales: observer agreement study

OBJECTIVE: To study the inter-observer variation related to extraction of continuous and numerical rating scale data from trial reports for use in meta-analyses. DESIGN: Observer agreement study. DATA SOURCES: A random sample of 10 Cochrane reviews that presented a result as a standardised mean difference (SMD), the protocols for the reviews and the trial reports (n=45) were retrieved. DATA EXTRACTION: Five experienced methodologists and five PhD students independently extracted data from the trial reports for calculation of the first SMD result in each review. The observers did not have access to the reviews but to the protocols, where the relevant outcome was highlighted. The agreement was analysed at both trial and meta-analysis level, pairing the observers in all possible ways (45 pairs, yielding 2025 pairs of trials and 450 pairs of meta-analyses). Agreement was defined as SMDs that differed less than 0.1 in their point estimates or confidence intervals. RESULTS: The agreement was 53% at trial level and 31% at meta-analysis level. Including all pairs, the median disagreement was SMD=0.22 (interquartile range 0.07-0.61). The experts agreed somewhat more than the PhD students at trial level (61% v 46%), but not at meta-analysis level. Important reasons for disagreement were differences in selection of time points, scales, control groups, and type of calculations; whether to include a trial in the meta-analysis; and data extraction errors made by the observers. In 14 out of the 100 SMDs calculated at the meta-analysis level, individual observers reached different conclusions than the originally published review. CONCLUSIONS: Disagreements were common and often larger than the effect of commonly used treatments. Meta-analyses using SMDs are prone to observer variation and should be interpreted with caution. The reliability of meta-analyses might be improved by having more detailed review protocols, more than one observer, and statistical expertise.

A 700-year paleoecological record of boreal ecosystem responses to climatic variation from Alaska

Recent observations and model simulations have highlighted the sensitivity of the forest - tundra ecotone to climatic forcing. In contrast, paleoecological studies have not provided evidence of tree-line fluctuations in response to Holocene climatic changes in Alaska, suggesting that the forest - tundra boundary in certain areas may be relatively stable at multicentennial to millennial time scales. We conducted a multiproxy study of sediment cores from an Alaskan lake near the altitudinal limits of key boreal-forest species. Paleoecological data were compared with independent climatic reconstructions to assess ecosystem responses of the forest - tundra boundary to Little Ice Age (LIA) climatic. uctuations. Pollen, diatom, charcoal, macrofossil, and magnetic analyses provide the first continuous record of vegetation -. re - climate interactions at decadal to centennial time scales during the past 700 years from southern Alaska. Boreal-forest diebacks characterized by declines of Picea mariana, P. glauca, and tree Betula occurred during the LIA ( AD 1500 - 1800), whereas shrubs ( Alnus viridis, Betula glandulosa/nana) and herbaceous taxa (Epilobium, Aconitum) expanded. Marked increases in charcoal abundance and changes in magnetic properties suggest increases in. re importance and soil erosion during the same period. In addition, the conspicuous reduction or disappearance of certain aquatic ( e. g., Isoetes, Nuphar, Pediastrum) and wetland ( Sphagnum) plants and major shifts in diatom assemblages suggest pronounced lake-level. uctuations and rapid ecosystem reorganization in response to LIA climatic deterioration. Our results imply that temperature shifts of 1 - 2 degrees C, when accompanied by major changes in moisture balance, can greatly alter high-altitudinal terrestrial, wetland, and aquatic ecosystems, including conversion between boreal-forest tree line and tundra. The climatic and ecosystem variations in our study area appear to be coherent with changes in solar irradiance, suggesting that changes in solar activity contributed to the environmental instability of the past 700 years.

Orbital changes, variation in solar activity and increased anthropogenic activities: controls on the Holocene flood frequency in the Lake Ledro area, Northern Italy

Adding to the on-going debate regarding vegetation recolonisation (more particularly the timing) in Europe and climate change since the Lateglacial, this study investigates a long sediment core (LL081) from Lake Ledro (652ma.s.l., southern Alps, Italy). Environmental changes were reconstructed using multiproxy analysis (pollen-based vegetation and climate reconstruction, lake levels, magnetic susceptibility and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) measurements) recorded climate and land-use changes during the Lateglacial and early-middle Holocene. The well-dated and high-resolution pollen record of Lake Ledro is compared with vegetation records from the southern and northern Alps to trace the history of tree species distribution. An altitudedependent progressive time delay of the first continuous occurrence of Abies (fir) and of the Larix (larch) development has been observed since the Lateglacial in the southern Alps. This pattern suggests that the mid-altitude Lake Ledro area was not a refuge and that trees originated from lowlands or hilly areas (e.g. Euganean Hills) in northern Italy. Preboreal oscillations (ca. 11 000 cal BP), Boreal oscillations (ca. 10 200, 9300 cal BP) and the 8.2 kyr cold event suggest a centennial-scale climate forcing in the studied area. Picea (spruce) expansion occurred preferentially around 10 200 and 8200 cal BP in the south-eastern Alps, and therefore reflects the long-lasting cumulative effects of successive boreal and the 8.2 kyr cold event. The extension of Abies is contemporaneous with the 8.2 kyr event, but its development in the southern Alps benefits from the wettest interval 8200-7300 cal BP evidenced in high lake levels, flood activity and pollen-based climate reconstructions. Since ca. 7500 cal BP, a weak signal of pollen-based anthropogenic activities suggest weak human impact. The period between ca. 5700 and ca. 4100 cal BP is considered as a transition period to colder and wetter conditions (particularly during summers) that favoured a dense beech (Fagus) forest development which in return caused a distinctive yew (Taxus) decline.We conclude that climate was the dominant factor controlling vegetation changes and erosion processes during the early and middle Holocene (up to ca. 4100 cal BP).

Detailed analysis of sequence changes occurring during vlsE antigenic variation in the mouse model of Borrelia burgdorferi infection.

Lyme disease Borrelia can infect humans and animals for months to years, despite the presence of an active host immune response. The vls antigenic variation system, which expresses the surface-exposed lipoprotein VlsE, plays a major role in B. burgdorferi immune evasion. Gene conversion between vls silent cassettes and the vlsE expression site occurs at high frequency during mammalian infection, resulting in sequence variation in the VlsE product. In this study, we examined vlsE sequence variation in B. burgdorferi B31 during mouse infection by analyzing 1,399 clones isolated from bladder, heart, joint, ear, and skin tissues of mice infected for 4 to 365 days. The median number of codon changes increased progressively in C3H/HeN mice from 4 to 28 days post infection, and no clones retained the parental vlsE sequence at 28 days. In contrast, the decrease in the number of clones with the parental vlsE sequence and the increase in the number of sequence changes occurred more gradually in severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) mice. Clones containing a stop codon were isolated, indicating that continuous expression of full-length VlsE is not required for survival in vivo; also, these clones continued to undergo vlsE recombination. Analysis of clones with apparent single recombination events indicated that recombinations into vlsE are nonselective with regard to the silent cassette utilized, as well as the length and location of the recombination event. Sequence changes as small as one base pair were common. Fifteen percent of recovered vlsE variants contained "template-independent" sequence changes, which clustered in the variable regions of vlsE. We hypothesize that the increased frequency and complexity of vlsE sequence changes observed in clones recovered from immunocompetent mice (as compared with SCID mice) is due to rapid clearance of relatively invariant clones by variable region-specific anti-VlsE antibody responses.

Detailed analysis of sequence changes occurring during vlsE antigenic variation in the mouse model of Borrelia burgdorferi infection.

Lyme disease Borrelia can infect humans and animals for months to years, despite the presence of an active host immune response. The vls antigenic variation system, which expresses the surface-exposed lipoprotein VlsE, plays a major role in B. burgdorferi immune evasion. Gene conversion between vls silent cassettes and the vlsE expression site occurs at high frequency during mammalian infection, resulting in sequence variation in the VlsE product. In this study, we examined vlsE sequence variation in B. burgdorferi B31 during mouse infection by analyzing 1,399 clones isolated from bladder, heart, joint, ear, and skin tissues of mice infected for 4 to 365 days. The median number of codon changes increased progressively in C3H/HeN mice from 4 to 28 days post infection, and no clones retained the parental vlsE sequence at 28 days. In contrast, the decrease in the number of clones with the parental vlsE sequence and the increase in the number of sequence changes occurred more gradually in severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) mice. Clones containing a stop codon were isolated, indicating that continuous expression of full-length VlsE is not required for survival in vivo; also, these clones continued to undergo vlsE recombination. Analysis of clones with apparent single recombination events indicated that recombinations into vlsE are nonselective with regard to the silent cassette utilized, as well as the length and location of the recombination event. Sequence changes as small as one base pair were common. Fifteen percent of recovered vlsE variants contained "template-independent" sequence changes, which clustered in the variable regions of vlsE. We hypothesize that the increased frequency and complexity of vlsE sequence changes observed in clones recovered from immunocompetent mice (as compared with SCID mice) is due to rapid clearance of relatively invariant clones by variable region-specific anti-VlsE antibody responses.

Gibbs point process approximation: Total variation bounds using Stein's method

We obtain upper bounds for the total variation distance between the distributions of two Gibbs point processes in a very general setting. Applications are provided to various well-known processes and settings from spatial statistics and statistical physics, including the comparison of two Lennard-Jones processes, hard core approximation of an area interaction process and the approximation of lattice processes by a continuous Gibbs process. Our proof of the main results is based on Stein's method. We construct an explicit coupling between two spatial birth-death processes to obtain Stein factors, and employ the Georgii-Nguyen-Zessin equation for the total bound.

Continuous milking of dairy cows disrupts timing of peak IgG concentration appearance in mammary secretions

The length of the dry period in commercial dairy production is under close scrutiny. While the main concern is the composition and volume of milk produced, the evaluation of colostrum quality under these new paradigms has suggested a decline in IgG concentrations, while some reports indicate no change. Colostrum quality has been defined as an adequate concentration (>50 mg/ml) of immunoglobulin in the secretions to provide the newborn with maximal disease resistance. We investigated the appearance of IgG in mammary pre- and post partum secretions in cows without a dry period (continuously milked, Dry0) and compared the secretions with cows that experienced a dry period of 60 d (Dry60). Blood was collected during the experimental period and plasma analysed for progesterone (P4) and prolactin (Prl). Approximately -6 d relative to parturition, the Dry0 animals exhibited increased concentration of IgG in their secretions to an average of ∼35 mg/ml that remained rather constant through subsequent pregnancy and following parturition. Dry0 cows were producing an average IgG concentration in parturition colostrum of 44·2±17·6 mg/ml that was not different than that of controls (66·86±16·8 mg/ml). However, Dry0 cows exhibited high variation, different peak times (day) of IgG concentration including times that occurred both pre and post parturition. IgG mass of the Dry0 cows remained rather constant pre- and post partum and did not show the same declining mass following parturition that was shown for the Dry60 cows. The change in plasma P4 and Prl were shown to have no timing effect on colostrum IgG concentration.

Analysis of Phenotypic Variation in Childhood Wheezing Disorders

Recurrent wheezing or asthma is a common problem in children that has increased considerably in prevalence in the past few decades. The causes and underlying mechanisms are poorly understood and it is thought that a numb er of distinct diseases causing similar symptoms are involved. Due to the lack of a biologically founded classification system, children are classified according to their observed disease related features (symptoms, signs, measurements) into phenotypes. The objectives of this PhD project were a) to develop tools for analysing phenotypic variation of a disease, and b) to examine phenotypic variability of wheezing among children by applying these tools to existing epidemiological data. A combination of graphical methods (multivariate co rrespondence analysis) and statistical models (latent variables models) was used. In a first phase, a model for discrete variability (latent class model) was applied to data on symptoms and measurements from an epidemiological study to identify distinct phenotypes of wheezing. In a second phase, the modelling framework was expanded to include continuous variability (e.g. along a severity gradient) and combinations of discrete and continuo us variability (factor models and factor mixture models). The third phase focused on validating the methods using simulation studies. The main body of this thesis consists of 5 articles (3 published, 1 submitted and 1 to be submitted) including applications, methodological contributions and a review. The main findings and contributions were: 1) The application of a latent class model to epidemiological data (symptoms and physiological measurements) yielded plausible pheno types of wheezing with distinguishing characteristics that have previously been used as phenotype defining characteristics. 2) A method was proposed for including responses to conditional questions (e.g. questions on severity or triggers of wheezing are asked only to children with wheeze) in multivariate modelling.ii 3) A panel of clinicians was set up to agree on a plausible model for wheezing diseases. The model can be used to generate datasets for testing the modelling approach. 4) A critical review of methods for defining and validating phenotypes of wheeze in children was conducted. 5) The simulation studies showed that a parsimonious parameterisation of the models is required to identify the true underlying structure of the data. The developed approach can deal with some challenges of real-life cohort data such as variables of mixed mode (continuous and categorical), missing data and conditional questions. If carefully applied, the approach can be used to identify whether the underlying phenotypic variation is discrete (classes), continuous (factors) or a combination of these. These methods could help improve precision of research into causes and mechanisms and contribute to the development of a new classification of wheezing disorders in children and other diseases which are difficult to classify.

Properties of seawater (partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2)) from a ProOceanus CO2-Pro sensor mounted on the continuous surface water sampling system during the Tara Oceans expedition 2009-2013

The Tara Oceans Expedition (2009-2013) sampled the world oceans on board a 36 m long schooner, collecting environmental data and organisms from viruses to planktonic metazoans for later analyses using modern sequencing and state-of-the-art imaging technologies. Tara Oceans Data are particularly suited to study the genetic, morphological and functional diversity of plankton. The present data set provides continuous measurements of partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2), using a ProOceanus CO2-Pro instrument mounted on the flowthrough system. This automatic sensor is fitted with an equilibrator made of gas permeable silicone membrane and an internal detection loop with a non-dispersive infrared detector of PPSystems SBA-4 CO2 analyzer. A zero-CO2 baseline is provided for the subsequent measurements circulating the internal gas through a CO2 absorption chamber containing soda lime or Ascarite. The frequency of this automatic zero point calibration was set to be 24 hours. All data recorded during zeroing processes were discarded with the 15-minute data after each calibration. The output of CO2-Pro is the mole fraction of CO2 in the measured water and the pCO2 is obtained using the measured total pressure of the internal wet gas. The fugacity of CO2 (fCO2) in the surface seawater, whose difference with the atmospheric CO2 fugacity is proportional to the air-sea CO2 fluxes, is obtained by correcting the pCO2 for non-ideal CO2 gas concentration according to Weiss (1974). The fCO2 computed using CO2-Pro measurements was corrected to the sea surface condition by considering the temperature effect on fCO2 (Takahashi et al., 1993). The surface seawater observations that were initially estimated with a 15 seconds frequency were averaged every 5-min cycle. The performance of CO2-Pro was adjusted by comparing the sensor outputs against the thermodynamic carbonate calculation of pCO2 using the carbonic system constants of Millero et al. (2006) from the determinations of total inorganic carbon (CT ) and total alkalinity (AT ) in discrete samples collected at sea surface. AT was determined using an automated open cell potentiometric titration (Haraldsson et al. 1997). CT was determined with an automated coulometric titration (Johnson et al. 1985; 1987), using the MIDSOMMA system (Mintrop, 2005). fCO2 data are flagged according to the WOCE guidelines following Pierrot et al. (2009) identifying recommended values and questionable measurements giving additional information about the reasons of the questionability.

Continuous measurements at Schwingbachtal Studienlandschaft in the growing seasons 2013-2014

The recent development of in-situ monitoring devices, such as UV-spectrometers, makes the study of short-term stream chemistry variation relevant, especially the study of diurnal cycles, which are not yet fully understood. Our study is based on high-frequency data from an agricultural catchment (Studienlandschaft Schwingbachtal, Germany). We propose a novel approach, i.e. the combination of cluster analysis and Linear Discriminant Analysis, to mine from these data nitrate behavior patterns. As a result, we observe a seasonality of nitrate diurnal cycles, that differs from the most common cycle seasonality described in the literature, i.e. pre-dawn peaks in spring. Our cycles appear in summer and the maximum and minimum shift to a later time in late summer/autumn. This is observed both for water- and energy-limited years, thus potentially stressing the role of evapotranspiration. This concluding hypothesis on the role of evapotranspiration on nitrate stream concentration, which was obtained through data mining, broadens the perspective on the diurnal cycling of stream nitrate concentrations.

Sediment color variation in laminated Holocene sediments of ODP Site 178-1098

Continuous sediment color records with a resolution of one measurement per millimeter were generated for Site 1098 (Palmer Deep, Antarctic Peninsula) from digital images of the core surfaces to test if the laminated intervals at this site will allow for analysis of high-frequency climate variability in the Circum-Antarctic. Long-term variation in color values correlates with gamma-ray attenuation bulk density. Darker colors are found in laminated intervals with lower bulk density, high biogenic silica, and high total organic carbon content. Darker color values result from the addition of dark laminae to background sediments that show little variation in color. The thicknesses of dark and light laminae were measured in the top 25 meters composite depth to determine the temporal resolution of the laminae. The alternation between dark, biogenic-rich laminae and background sediment essentially represents an annual cycle, but the sediment is not consistently varved. The modal thickness of light laminae is close to the long-term average annual accumulation rate, and results indicate that approximately half of the dark/light couplets in distinctly laminated intervals represent a single year. Missing biogenic laminae are interpreted to represent reduced primary productivity during cold years with delayed breakup of the sea-ice cover.

Latitudinal variation in the planktic foraminifer Contusotruncana contusa in the terminal Cretaceous ocean

The morphological variability (coiling properties, size and shape) of the planktic foraminifer Contusortuncana contusa (Cushman) in the terminal Cretaceous ocean was examined at eight deep-sea sites and two continental sections from low (16°) to middle (42°) paleolatitudes in both hemispheres. The material used in this study includes samples from the South Atlantic (DSDP Sites 356, 527 and 525A), North Atlantic (Sites 384 and 548A), Indian and Pacific Oceans (DSDP Site 465A and ODP Sites 761C and 762C) and Tethyan Ocean (outcrop sections from El-Kef and Caravaca). On average 45 specimens from two samples per location were analysed, from an interval corresponding approximately to the last 60 kyr of the Cretaceous. No differences in coiling direction (dextral proportions were > 90% in all samples), percentage of kummerform specimens (usually > 50%) and number of chambers in the last whorl (4-5) were observed between the sites. Both test size (expressed as spiral outline area and test volume) and total number of chambers increase significantly towards lower latitudes. Similarly, test conicity, examined by shape coordinate and eigenshape methods, and angularity of the spiral outline show a rather continuous, slight increase towards lower latitudes. Kummerform specimens of C. contusa were slightly larger and more conical than normalforms and possessed substantially more chambers (both totally and in the last whorl). A principal components analysis of the sample means of five variables describing size and shape clearly distinguished high-latitude sites (525A, 527, 548A, 761C and 762C) from low-latitude sites (384, 465A, Caravaca and El-Kef). Specimens from Site 356 are transitional with respect to those two groups. The results indicate: (1) considerable morphological variation in C. contusa during the terminal Cretaceous comparable to that known in many Recent planktic foraminiferal species and (2) a geographical distribution of this variation corresponding to previously suggested biogeographic schemes based on quantitative analysis of planktic foraminiferal assemblages. Despite the differences in sample means, the overall morphology of C. contusa overlaps among the sites studied, supporting the classification of all C. contusa morphotypes as a single species. Similarly, no discrete morphologic groups could be distinguished within any of the samples.

Subgeometric rates of convergence for a class of continuous-time Markov process

Let (Phi(t))(t is an element of R+) be a Harris ergodic continuous-time Markov process on a general state space, with invariant probability measure pi. We investigate the rates of convergence of the transition function P-t(x, (.)) to pi; specifically, we find conditions under which r(t) vertical bar vertical bar P-t (x, (.)) - pi vertical bar vertical bar -> 0 as t -> infinity, for suitable subgeometric rate functions r(t), where vertical bar vertical bar - vertical bar vertical bar denotes the usual total variation norm for a signed measure. We derive sufficient conditions for the convergence to hold, in terms of the existence of suitable points on which the first hitting time moments are bounded. In particular, for stochastically ordered Markov processes, explicit bounds on subgeometric rates of convergence are obtained. These results are illustrated in several examples.