The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We establish that our index performs better than other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We establish that our index performs better than other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We compare the performance of our index with other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

Addressing important econometric issues on how to construct theoretical based exchange rate misalignment estimates

Exchange rate misalignment assessment is becoming more relevant in recent period particularly after the nancial crisis of 2008. There are di erent methodologies to address real exchange rate misalignment. The real exchange misalignment is de ned as the di erence between actual real e ective exchange rate and some equilibrium norm. Di erent norms are available in the literature. Our paper aims to contribute to the literature by showing that Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach (BEER) adopted by Clark & MacDonald (1999), Ubide et al. (1999), Faruqee (1994), Aguirre & Calderón (2005) and Kubota (2009) among others can be improved in two following manners. The rst one consists of jointly modeling real e ective exchange rate, trade balance and net foreign asset position. The second one has to do with the possibility of explicitly testing over identifying restrictions implied by economic theory and allowing the analyst to show that these restrictions are not falsi ed by the empirical evidence. If the economic based identifying restrictions are not rejected it is also possible to decompose exchange rate misalignment in two pieces, one related to long run fundamentals of exchange rate and the other related to external account imbalances. We also discuss some necessary conditions that should be satis ed for disrcarding trade balance information without compromising exchange rate misalignment assessment. A statistical (but not a theoretical) identifying strategy for calculating exchange rate misalignment is also discussed. We illustrate the advantages of our approach by analyzing the Brazilian case. We show that the traditional approach disregard important information of external accounts equilibrium for this economy.

Co-cultivation of plant cells as a technique for the elicitation of secondary metabolite production

Cells of Mikania glomerata, Cephaelis ipecacuanha and Maytenus aquifolia were co-cultured in a two-phase system using filter paper as a solid support. The species were co-cultured in all possible paired combinations. Interaction between Mikania and Maytenus cells resulted in increased biomass production of Maytenus cells, but the friedelin content was reduced. Co-cultivation of Cephaelis and Mikania cells enhanced coumarin content, but inhibited the growth of Mikania cells. However, yield of emetine as well as Cephaelis biomass accumulation were positively stimulated by the co-cultivation. Results indicate a possible occurrence of allelopathy in such a system.

Construct validity of a figure rating scale for Brazilian adolescents

Background: Figure rating scales were developed as a tool to determine body dissatisfaction in women, men, and children. However, it lacks in the literature the validation of the scale for body silhouettes previously adapted. We aimed to obtain evidence for construct validity of a figure rating scale for Brazilian adolescents.Methods: The study was carried out with adolescent students attending three public schools in an urban region of the municipality of Florianopolis in the State of Santa Catarina (SC). The sample comprised 232 10-19-year-old students, 106 of whom are boys and 126 girls, from the 5th series (i.e. year) of Primary School to the 3rd year of Secondary School. Data-gathering involved the application of an instrument containing 8 body figure drawings representing a range of children's and adolescents' body shapes, ranging from very slim (contour 1) to obese (contour 8). Weights and heights were also collected, and body mass index (BMI) was calculated later. BMI was analyzed as a continuous variable, using z-scores, and as a dichotomous categorical variable, representing a diagnosis of nutritional status (normal and overweight including obesity).Results: Results showed that both males and females with larger BMI z-scores chose larger body contours. Girls with higher BMI z-scores also show higher values of body image dissatisfaction.Conclusion: We provided the first evidence of validity for a figure rating scale for Brazilian adolescents.

Defining the student burnout construct: a structural analysis from three burnout inventories

College student burnout has been assessed mainly with the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI). However, the construct's definition and measurement with MBI has drawn several criticisms and new inventories have been suggested for the evaluation of the syndrome. A redefinition of the construct of student burnout is proposed by means of a structural equation model, reflecting burnout as a second order factor defined by factors from the MBI-Student Survey (MBI-SS); the Copenhagen Burnout Inventory-Student Survey (CBI-SS) and the Oldenburg Burnout Inventory-Student Survey (OLBI-SS). Standardized regression weights from Burnout to Exhaustion and Cynicism from the MBI-SS scale, Personal Burnout and Studies Related Burnout from the CBI, and Exhaustion and Disengagement from OLBI, show that these factors are strong manifestations of students' burnout. For college students, the burnout construct is best defined by two dimensions described as "physical and psychological exhaustion" and "cynicism and disengagement."

Elicitation of multivariate prior distributions: A nonparametric Bayesian approach

In the context of Bayesian statistical analysis, elicitation is the process of formulating a prior density f(.) about one or more uncertain quantities to represent a person's knowledge and beliefs. Several different methods of eliciting prior distributions for one unknown parameter have been proposed. However, there are relatively few methods for specifying a multivariate prior distribution and most are just applicable to specific classes of problems and/or based on restrictive conditions, such as independence of variables. Besides, many of these procedures require the elicitation of variances and correlations, and sometimes elicitation of hyperparameters which are difficult for experts to specify in practice. Garthwaite et al. (2005) discuss the different methods proposed in the literature and the difficulties of eliciting multivariate prior distributions. We describe a flexible method of eliciting multivariate prior distributions applicable to a wide class of practical problems. Our approach does not assume a parametric form for the unknown prior density f(.), instead we use nonparametric Bayesian inference, modelling f(.) by a Gaussian process prior distribution. The expert is then asked to specify certain summaries of his/her distribution, such as the mean, mode, marginal quantiles and a small number of joint probabilities. The analyst receives that information, treating it as a data set D with which to update his/her prior beliefs to obtain the posterior distribution for f(.). Theoretical properties of joint and marginal priors are derived and numerical illustrations to demonstrate our approach are given. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Construct validity of behavioral models of anxiety: where experimental psychopathology meets ecology and evolution

In experimental psychopathology, construct validity is usually enhanced by addressing theories from other fields in its nomological network. In the field of anxiety research, this construct is related to antipredator behavior, conserved across phylogeny in its functions and neural basis, but not necessarily on its topography. Even though the relations between behavioral models of anxiety and statements from behavioral ecology and evolutionary biology are commonly made in anxiety research, these are rarely tested, at least explicitly. However, in order to increase construct validity in experimental anxiety, testing predictions from those theories is highly desirable. This article discusses these questions, suggesting a few ways in which behavioral ecological and evolutionary hypotheses of anxiety-like behavior may be tested.

Reliability and construct validity of the karate-specific aerobic test

Chaabene, H, Hachana, Y, Franchini, E, Mkaouer, B, Montassar, M, and Chamari, K. Reliability and construct validity of the karate-specific aerobic test. J Strength Cond Res 26(12): 3454-3460, 2012-The aim of this study was to examine absolute and relative reliabilities and external responsiveness of the Karate-specific aerobic test (KSAT). This study comprised 43 male karatekas, 19 of them participated in the first study to establish test-retest reliability and 40, selected on the bases of their karate experience and level of practice, participated in the second study to identify external responsiveness of the KSAT. The latter group was divided into 2 categories: national-level group (G(n)) and regional-level group (Gr). Analysis showed excellent test-retest reliability of time to exhaustion (TE), with intraclass correlation coefficient ICC(3,1) >0.90, standard error of measurement (SEM) <5%: (3.2%) and mean difference (bias) +/- the 95% limits of agreement: -9.5 +/- 78.8 seconds. There was a significant difference between test-retest session in peak lactate concentration (Peak [La]) (9.12 +/- 2.59 vs. 8.05 +/- 2.67 mmol.L-1; p < 0.05) but not in peak heart rate (HRpeak) and rating of perceived exertion (RPE) (196 +/- 9 vs. 194 +/- 9 b.min(-1) and 7.6 +/- 0.93 vs. 7.8 +/- 1.15; p > 0.05), respectively. National-level karate athletes (1,032 +/- 101 seconds) were better than regional level (841 +/- 134 seconds) on TE performance during KSAT (p < 0.001). Thus, KSAT provided good external responsiveness. The area under the receiver operator characteristics curve was >0.70 (0.86; confidence interval 95%: 0.72-0.95). Significant difference was detected in Peak [La] between national- (6.09 +/- 1.78 mmol.L-1) and regional-level (8.48 +/- 2.63 mmol.L-1) groups, but not in HRpeak (194 +/- 8 vs. 195 +/- 8 b.min(-1)) and RPE (7.57 +/- 1.15 vs. 7.42 +/- 1.1), respectively. The result of this study indicates that KSAT provides excellent absolute and relative reliabilities. The KSAT can effectively distinguish karate athletes of different competitive levels. Thus, the KSAT may be suitable for field assessment of aerobic fitness of karate practitioners.

"Crop elicitation": approccio innovativo per la valorizzazione delle proprietà funzionali in leguminose da granella

Crop elicitation: innovative approach for the valorization of grain legume functional properties. In Italy grain legume cultivation has encountered a drastic decrease due to several causes (productive, economic, social). In this regard, studies aimed at the setting up of agronomic techniques able to guarantee high and constant in planta yields of health-promoting compounds may concur at re-launching legume production. In this context, 22 accessions of grain legumes (17 Phaseolus vulgaris, 3 Phaseolus coccineus, 1 Vigna unguiculata and 1 Glycine max genotypes) were screened with the aim of identifying genotypes rich in health beneficial phytochemicals (α-amylase inhibitors, α -glucosidase inhibitors, polyphenols) and with low anti-nutritional compounds (lectins). A wide variability was observed among investigated accessions. Four genotypes (Verdone, Kidney Cina, Roviotto and DG) showed a α -amylase inhibitory activity significantly higher (approximately 30% more) than all other tested accessions. The α -amylase inhibitory activity was not correlated neither with the protein nor with the polyphenol contents. Conversely, the α -glucosidase inhibitory activity was positively correlated with grain color and polyphenol content: dark-colored seeds had a mean inhibitory activity of 83.64 ± 22.07%, whereas light-colored seeds had mean values of 21.11 ± 9.36%. As regards the anti-nutritional compounds, out of all common bean accessions, only DG showed no erythro-agglutination activity (lectins). Preliminary experiments, performed in controlled environment, permitted to highlight that different germination conditions markedly affect the synthesis and accumulation of functional compounds in legume seedlings. Those findings were confirmed with field trials performed in two different locations (Bologna and Pisa), on two bean genotypes (Verdone and Zolfino), during the 2004-2005 cropping season. Results showed that the application of abiotic stresses (no fertilization and /or no irrigation) lead to a significant increase of flavonoids in grains, but a decrease (up to 50%) in legume yields was also observed. Crop elicitation, even if valuable for boosting health-promoting compound synthesis in crops, must necessary cope with economically acceptable crop yields.

Envy: A Psychometric Refinement of the Construct

The noticeable differences in the theoretical and operative definitions of envy across studies and approaches have produced a fragmentary representation and understanding of the envious emotion. The present dissertation aimed to clarify the inherent nature of the construct of envy through the integration of findings from three independent studies. We focused on malicious envy, and investigated it from both a dispositional and an episodic perspective. Studies 1 and 2 investigated the dimensionality of envy as a stable individual characteristic and an episodic emotional state, respectively. In order to elicit episodic envy, a scenario-based experiment was conducted. Results indicated that, in both its dispositional and episodic facets, envy is a bidimensional construct composed by an inner-directed dimension of inferiority and helplessness, and an outer-directed dimension of feelings of anger and ill will. Moreover, findings from Study 1 allowed to establish boundaries between envy and competing constructs that have often been included in conceptualizations of envy. The psychometrically validated definition of envy provided by Studies 1 and 2 represents a valuable contribution to empirical research. Implications for envy research concern the promotion of a shared operationalization of envy in future studies, which will arguably facilitate the comparison of findings between studies and between approaches. Study 3 examined the mechanisms through which dispositional envy affects individuals’ social adjustment and psychological wellbeing. Findings revealed that the detrimental effects of envy on perceived social support and subjective well-being are mostly mediated by other personal characteristics, such as neuroticism and self-esteem. By reducing global self-esteem, the envious disposition may damage supportive social networks via antisocial direct and indirect behaviors that may arise from envy and that are likely to drive others away. On the other hand, by damaging both emotional stability and self-worth, dispositional envy leads to reduced subjective well-being. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.

Reliability, construct and criterion validity of the KIDSCREEN-10 score: a short measure for children and adolescents' well-being and health-related quality of life

Background To assess the criterion and construct validity of the KIDSCREEN-10 well-being and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) score, a short version of the KIDSCREEN-52 and KIDSCREEN-27 instruments. Methods The child self-report and parent report versions of the KIDSCREEN-10 were tested in a sample of 22,830 European children and adolescents aged 8–18 and their parents (n = 16,237). Correlation with the KIDSCREEN-52 and associations with other generic HRQoL measures, physical and mental health, and socioeconomic status were examined. Score differences by age, gender, and country were investigated. Results Correlations between the 10-item KIDSCREEN score and KIDSCREEN-52 scales ranged from r = 0.24 to 0.72 (r = 0.27–0.72) for the self-report version (proxy-report version). Coefficients below r = 0.5 were observed for the KIDSCREEN-52 dimensions Financial Resources and Being Bullied only. Cronbach alpha was 0.82 (0.78), test–retest reliability was ICC = 0.70 (0.67) for the self- (proxy-)report version. Correlations between other children self-completed HRQoL questionnaires and KIDSCREEN-10 ranged from r = 0.43 to r = 0.63 for the KIDSCREEN children self-report and r = 0.22–0.40 for the KIDSCREEN parent proxy report. Known group differences in HRQoL between physically/mentally healthy and ill children were observed in the KIDSCREEN-10 self and proxy scores. Associations with self-reported psychosomatic complaints were r = −0.52 (−0.36) for the KIDSCREEN-10 self-report (proxy-report). Statistically significant differences in KIDSCREEN-10 self and proxy scores were found by socioeconomic status, age, and gender. Conclusions Our results indicate that the KIDSCREEN-10 provides a valid measure of a general HRQoL factor in children and adolescents, but the instrument does not represent well most of the single dimensions of the original KIDSCREEN-52. Test–retest reliability was slightly below a priori defined thresholds.

Sleep quality, the neglected outcome variable in clinical studies focusing on locomotor system; a construct validation study

In addition to general health and pain, sleep is highly relevant to judging the well-being of an individual. Of these three important outcome variables, however, sleep is neglected in most outcome studies.Sleep is a very important resource for recovery from daily stresses and strains, and any alteration of sleep will likely affect mental and physical health, especially during disease. Sleep assessment therefore should be standard in all population-based or clinical studies focusing on the locomotor system. Yet current sleep assessment tools are either too long or too specific for general use.