Error, Confidence, and Cost in Engineering Computations

The questions that one should answer in engineering computations - deterministic, probabilistic/randomized, as well as heuristic - are (i) how good the computed results/outputs are and (ii) how much the cost in terms of amount of computation and the amount of storage utilized in getting the outputs is. The absolutely errorfree quantities as well as the completely errorless computations done in a natural process can never be captured by any means that we have at our disposal. While the computations including the input real quantities in nature/natural processes are exact, all the computations that we do using a digital computer or are carried out in an embedded form are never exact. The input data for such computations are also never exact because any measuring instrument has inherent error of a fixed order associated with it and this error, as a matter of hypothesis and not as a matter of assumption, is not less than 0.005 per cent. Here by error we imply relative error bounds. The fact that exact error is never known under any circumstances and any context implies that the term error is nothing but error-bounds. Further, in engineering computations, it is the relative error or, equivalently, the relative error-bounds (and not the absolute error) which is supremely important in providing us the information regarding the quality of the results/outputs. Another important fact is that inconsistency and/or near-consistency in nature, i.e., in problems created from nature is completely nonexistent while in our modelling of the natural problems we may introduce inconsistency or near-inconsistency due to human error or due to inherent non-removable error associated with any measuring device or due to assumptions introduced to make the problem solvable or more easily solvable in practice. Thus if we discover any inconsistency or possibly any near-inconsistency in a mathematical model, it is certainly due to any or all of the three foregoing factors. We do, however, go ahead to solve such inconsistent/near-consistent problems and do get results that could be useful in real-world situations. The talk considers several deterministic, probabilistic, and heuristic algorithms in numerical optimisation, other numerical and statistical computations, and in PAC (probably approximately correct) learning models. It highlights the quality of the results/outputs through specifying relative error-bounds along with the associated confidence level, and the cost, viz., amount of computations and that of storage through complexity. It points out the limitation in error-free computations (wherever possible, i.e., where the number of arithmetic operations is finite and is known a priori) as well as in the usage of interval arithmetic. Further, the interdependence among the error, the confidence, and the cost is discussed.

Mass Distribution Studies in Effervescent Sprays

An experimental study on liquid mass distribution in effervescent sprays using water and air as working fluids is presented in this paper. Optical patternation and techniques of image processing are employed for analyzing the spray. The flow regime inside the effervescent atomizer largely dictates the mass distribution patterns. The patterns are seen to vary from concentrated, poorly atomized liquid lumps to uniformly distributed, fine droplets as the flow regime changes from bubbly flow to annular flow. A large variety of instantaneous spray patterns are observed in bubbly flow regime indicating a highly unsteady atomization process. However, relatively better consistency in spray patterns is observed at higher gas flow rates. Thus, the degree of unsteadiness gradually diminishes as gas flow rate is increased. The axial evolution of the spray in annular mode shows good mixing of liquid and gas across the interface.

Flexibility in Food Extraction Techniques in Urban Free-Ranging Bonnet Macaques, Macaca radiata

Non-human primate populations, other than responding appropriately to naturally occurring challenges, also need to cope with anthropogenic factors such as environmental pollution, resource depletion, and habitat destruction. Populations and individuals are likely to show considerable variations in food extraction abilities, with some populations and individuals more efficient than others at exploiting a set of resources. In this study, we examined among urban free-ranging bonnet macaques, Macaca radiata (a) local differences in food extraction abilities, (b) between-individual variation and within-individual consistency in problem-solving success and the underlying problem-solving characteristics, and (c) behavioral patterns associated with higher efficiency in food extraction. When presented with novel food extraction tasks, the urban macaques having more frequent exposure to novel physical objects in their surroundings, extracted food material from PET bottles and also solved another food extraction task (i.e., extracting an orange from a wire mesh box), more often than those living under more natural conditions. Adults solved the tasks more frequently than juveniles, and females more frequently than males. Both solution-technique and problem-solving characteristics varied across individuals but remained consistent within each individual across the successive presentations of PET bottles. The macaques that solved the tasks showed lesser within-individual variation in their food extraction behavior as compared to those that failed to solve the tasks. A few macaques appropriately modified their problem-solving behavior in accordance with the task requirements and solved the modified versions of the tasks without trial-and-error learning. These observations are ecologically relevant - they demonstrate considerable local differences in food extraction abilities, between-individual variation and within-individual consistency in food extraction techniques among free-ranging bonnet macaques, possibly affecting the species' local adaptability and resilience to environmental changes.

Structural Investigations on the Compositional Anomalies in Lanthanum Zirconate System Synthesized by Coprecipitation Method

The study set out to investigate the compositional inconsistency in lanthanum zirconate system revealed the presence of nonstoichiometry in lanthanum zirconate powders when synthesized by coprecipitation route. X-ray diffraction (XRD) and high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) investigations confirmed the depletion of La3+ ions in the system. Analysis using Vegard's law showed the La/Zr mole ratio in the sample to be around 0.45. An extra step of ultrasonication, introduced during the washing stage followed by the coprecipitation reaction, ensured the formation of stoichiometric La2Zr2O7. Noteworthy is also the difference between crystal sizes in the samples prepared by with and without ultrasonication step. This difference has been explained in light of the formation of individual nuclei and their scope of growth within the precipitate core. The differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) analyses revealed that optimum pH for the synthesis of La2Zr2O7 is about 11. The ultrasonication step was pivotal in assuring consistency in mixing and composition for the lanthanum zirconate powders.

Quantitative Strain and Compositional Studies of InxGa1-xAs Epilayer in a GaAs-based pHEMT Device Structure by TEM Techniques

In GaAs-based pseudomorphic high-electron mobility transistor device structures, strain and composition of the InxGa1 (-) As-x channel layer are very important as they influence the electronic properties of these devices. In this context, transmission electron microscopy techniques such as (002) dark-field imaging, high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) imaging, scanning transmission electron microscopy-high angle annular dark field (STEM-HAADF) imaging and selected area diffraction, are useful. A quantitative comparative study using these techniques is relevant for assessing the merits and limitations of the respective techniques. In this article, we have investigated strain and composition of the InxGa1 (-) As-x layer with the mentioned techniques and compared the results. The HRTEM images were investigated with strain state analysis. The indium content in this layer was quantified by HAADF imaging and correlated with STEM simulations. The studies showed that the InxGa1 (-) As-x channel layer was pseudomorphically grown leading to tetragonal strain along the 001] growth direction and that the average indium content (x) in the epilayer is similar to 0.12. We found consistency in the results obtained using various methods of analysis.

Investigation of Annealing Induced Yttria Segregation in Sputtered Yttria-Stabilized Zirconia Thin Films

8mol% yttria-stabilized zirconia (8YSZ) is an extensively studied solid electrolyte. But there is no consistency in the reported ionic conductivity values of 8YSZ thin films. Interfacial segregation in YSZ thin films can affect its ionic conductivity by locally altering the surface chemistry. This article presents the effects of annealing temperature and film thickness on free surface yttria segregation behavior in 8YSZ thin film by Angle Resolved XPS and its influence on the ionic conductivity of sputtered 8YSZ thin films. Surface yttria concentration of about 32, 20, and 9mol% have been found in 40nm 8YSZ films annealed at 1273, 1173, and 1073K, respectively. Yttria segregation is found to increase with increase in annealing temperature and film thickness. Ionic conductivities of 0.23, 0.16, and 0.08Scm(-1) are observed at 923K for 40nm 8YSZ films annealed at 1073, 1173, and 1273K, respectively. The decrease in conductivity with increase in annealing temperature is attributed to the increased yttria segregation with annealing. Neither segregation nor film thickness is found to affect the activation energy of oxygen ion conduction. Target purity is found to play a key role in determining free surface yttria segregation in 8YSZ thin films.

Scoping report: current status of index-based insurance in Bangladesh

With current and anticipated increases in magnitude of extreme weather events and a declining consistency in weather patterns, particularly challenging for agriculture, there has been a growing interest in weather index-based insurance (IBI) schemes in Bangladesh. A number of weather index-based insurance products have already been tested and applied across Asia and Africa, with varying degrees of success, as a mechanism to improve livelihood security by enabling vulnerable populations to transfer risk associated with climate change, extreme weather events and other hazards. In the process, these efforts have generated important new knowledge on how these schemes can be designed and implemented for optimal results. However, the practice of index-based insurance is still limited in Bangladesh, and the experience and knowledge generated by the different stakeholders involved needs to be better communicated.

Effects of observation time on interpretation of climatic time series - a need for consistency

Much of what we know about the climate of the United States is derived from data gathered under the auspices of the cooperative climate network. Particular aspects of the way observations are taken can have significant influences on the values of climate statistics derived from the data. These influences are briefly reviewed. The purpose of this paper is to examine their effects on climatic time series. Two other items discussed are: (1) a comparison of true (24-hour) means with means derived from maximums and minimums only, and (2) preliminary work on the times of day at which maximums and minimums are set.

A critical realist examination of the inhibitors of double loop learning in an agile adoption

The original solution to the high failure rate of software development projects was the imposition of an engineering approach to software development, with processes aimed at providing a repeatable structure to maintain a consistency in the ‘production process’. Despite these attempts at addressing the crisis in software development, others have argued that the rigid processes of an engineering approach did not provide the solution. The Agile approach to software development strives to change how software is developed. It does this primarily by relying on empowered teams of developers who are trusted to manage the necessary tasks, and who accept that change is a necessary part of a development project. The use of, and interest in, Agile methods in software development projects has expanded greatly, yet this has been predominantly practitioner driven. There is a paucity of scientific research on Agile methods and how they are adopted and managed. This study aims at addressing this paucity by examining the adoption of Agile through a theoretical lens. The lens used in this research is that of double loop learning theory. The behaviours required in an Agile team are the same behaviours required in double loop learning; therefore, a transition to double loop learning is required for a successful Agile adoption. The theory of triple loop learning highlights that power factors (or power mechanisms in this research) can inhibit the attainment of double loop learning. This study identifies the negative behaviours - potential power mechanisms - that can inhibit the double loop learning inherent in an Agile adoption, to determine how the Agile processes and behaviours can create these power mechanisms, and how these power mechanisms impact on double loop learning and the Agile adoption. This is a critical realist study, which acknowledges that the real world is a complex one, hierarchically structured into layers. An a priori framework is created to represent these layers, which are categorised as: the Agile context, the power mechanisms, and double loop learning. The aim of the framework is to explain how the Agile processes and behaviours, through the teams of developers and project managers, can ultimately impact on the double loop learning behaviours required in an Agile adoption. Four case studies provide further refinement to the framework, with changes required due to observations which were often different to what existing literature would have predicted. The study concludes by explaining how the teams of developers, the individual developers, and the project managers, working with the Agile processes and required behaviours, can inhibit the double loop learning required in an Agile adoption. A solution is then proposed to mitigate these negative impacts. Additionally, two new research processes are introduced to add to the Information Systems research toolkit.

Shore height and differentials between macrobenthic assemblages in vegetated and unvegetated areas of an intertidal sandflat

Intertidal macrobenthic faunal assemblages of a dual seagrass/callianassid-structured sandflat system were investigated in subtropical Moreton Bay, Queensland. Consistently across all 20 stations, the gastropod-dominated seagrass supported greater abundance (2.5×) and species richness (2×) than the amphipod-dominated sandflat. There was no evidence of along-shore or up-shore variation in the overall assemblage properties such as total abundance, species richness or diversity within either habitat type, except for variation in sandflat abundance between sites. But seagrass and sandflat assemblages both varied significantly in composition from site to site, and seagrass assemblage composition also varied with shore height. Shore height and site, however, only accounted for ≤41% of total variation. The two faunal assemblages showed a Bray–Curtis dissimilarity of 97.7% and within-habitat similarities of <20%. There was no consistency in distribution of greater diversity, dominance or evenness. No differential between any assemblage features in adjacent sandflat and seagrass samples changed with shore height, supporting hypotheses that such differentials are not maintained by predation. Macrofaunal species richness and diversity were closely coupled within sandflat stations but were uncoupled within seagrass ones, questioning the value of diversity as a comparative measure.

Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments

Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardized approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardized assessment of 25 532 rates of phenological change for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater and marine taxa. The majority of spring and summer events have advanced, and more rapidly than previously documented. Such consistency is indicative of shared large scale drivers. Furthermore, average rates of change have accelerated in a way that is consistent with observed warming trends. Less coherent patterns in some groups of organisms point to the agency of more local scale processes and multiple drivers. For the first time we show a broad scale signal of differential phenological change among trophic levels; across environments advances in timing were slowest for secondary consumers, thus heightening the potential risk of temporal mismatch in key trophic interactions. If current patterns and rates of phenological change are indicative of future trends, future climate warming may exacerbate trophic mismatching, further disrupting the functioning, persistence and resilience of many ecosystems and having a major impact on ecosystem services.

On the temporal consistency of chlorophyll products derived from three ocean-colour sensors

Satellite ocean-colour sensors have life spans lasting typically five-to-ten years. Detection of long-term trends in chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) using satellite ocean colour thus requires the combination of different ocean-colour missions with sufficient overlap to allow for cross-calibration. A further requirement is that the different sensors perform at a sufficient standard to capture seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations in ocean colour. For over eight years, the SeaWiFS, MODIS-Aqua and MERIS ocean-colour sensors operated in parallel. In this paper, we evaluate the temporal consistency in the monthly Chl-a time-series and in monthly inter-annual variations in Chl-a among these three sensors over the 2002–2010 time period. By subsampling the monthly Chl-a data from the three sensors consistently, we found that the Chl-a time-series and Chl-a anomalies among sensors were significantly correlated for >90% of the global ocean. These correlations were also relatively insensitive to the choice of three Chl-a algorithms and two atmospheric-correction algorithms. Furthermore, on the subsampled time-series, correlations between Chl-a and time, and correlations between Chl-a and physical variables (sea-surface temperature and sea-surface height) were not significantly different for >92% of the global ocean. The correlations in Chl-a and physical variables observed for all three sensors also reflect previous theories on coupling between physical processes and phytoplankton biomass. The results support the combining of Chl-a data from SeaWiFS, MODIS-Aqua and MERIS sensors, for use in long-term Chl-a trend analysis, and highlight the importance of accounting for differences in spatial sampling among sensors when combining ocean-colour observations.

New wild Brassica oleracea L. germplasm at its western distribution limit in the Iberian Peninsula

An exploration and collection mission for wild Brassica oleracea populations was carried out in spring and summer of 2013. The aim of this collection was to expand the number of accessions of wild Brassica oleracea available for basic and applied research in plant breeding. In this paper we report a new accession of wild Brassica oleracea in an unexplored coastal area of Galicia, NW Iberian Peninsula. Details of population ecology and vegetation, soil, climate and geographic data were recorded for this population. The “Endangered” threat category for the region is proposed, and actions for in situ and ex situ conservation are proposed. Seeds will be added to the germplasm collections of University of Santiago de Compostela and Misión Biológica de Galicia (CSIC) for further research on diverse aspects of the dynamics and ecophysiology of the population along with characterization and evaluation of useful traits.

Direct observation of strong coupling in a dense plasma

We present differential x-ray scattering cross sections for a radiatively heated plasma showing overall consistency, in both form and absolute value, with theoretical simulations. In particular, the evolution of the plasma from a strongly coupled high density phase to a lower density weakly coupled phase is quite clearly shown in both experiment and simulation. The success of this experiment shows that x-ray scattering has the potential to become an extremely useful diagnostic technique for dense plasma physics.

Determining the electronic structure and chemical potentials of molecules in solution

A simulation scheme is proposed for determining the excess chemical potential of a substance in solution. First, a Monte Carlo simulation is performed with classical models for solute and solvent molecules. A representative sample of these configurations is then used in a hybrid quantum/classical (QM/MM) calculation, where the solute is treated quantum-mechanically, and the average electronic structure is used to construct an improved classical model. This procedure is iterated to self-consistency in the classical model, which in practice is attained in one or two steps, depending on the quality of the initial guess. The excess free energy of the molecule within the QM/MM approach is determined relative to the classical model using thermodynamic perturbation theory with a cumulant expansion. The procedure provides a method of constructing classical point charge models appropriate for the solution and gives a measure of the importance of solvent fluctuations.