898 resultados para confidence level


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Elements with even atomic number (Z) in the interval 50 ≤ Z ≤ 58 have been resolved in the cosmic radiation using the Heavy Nuclei Experiment on the HEAO-3 satellite. Their relative abundances have been compared with the results expected from pure r-process material, pure s-process material, and solar system material, both with and without a modification due to possible first ionization potential effects. Such effects may be the result of the preferential acceleration, and hence enhancement in the cosmic rays, or those elements having low first ionization potentials. We find that our measurements are inconsistent with pure r-process material at the greater than 98% confidence level whether or not the first ionization potential adjustments are made.

In addition, we have compared our results with mixtures having varying ratios of pure r-process material to pure s-process material. We find that, if no first ionization potential effects are included,

(r/s)CRS/(r/s)SS = 0.20+0.18-0.14

where CRS refers to the cosmic ray source and SS refers to the solar system, consistent with having an almost pure s-process source. If the first ionization potential adjustments are applied

(r/s)CRS/(r/s)SS = 1.5+1.1-0.7

consistent with a solar system mixture.

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This thesis describes a measurement of B0- B0 mixing in events produced by electron-positron annihilation at a center of mass energy of 29 GeV. The data were taken by the Mark II detector in the PEP storage ring at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center between 1981 and 1987, and correspond to a total integrated luminosity of 224pb-1.

We used a new method, based on the kinematics of hadronic events containing two leptons, to provide a measurement of the probability, x, that a hadron, initially containing a b (b) quark decays to a positive (negative) lepton to be X = 0.17+0.15-0.08, with 90% confidence level upper and lower limits of 0.38 and 0.06, respectively, including all estimated systematic errors. Because of the good separation of signal and background, this result is relatively insensitive to various systematic effects which have complicated previous measurements.

We interpret this result as evidence for the mixing of neutral B mesons. Based on existing B0d mixing rate measurements, and some assumptions about the fractions of B0d and B0s mesons present in the data, this result favors maximal mixing of B0s mesons, although it cannot rule out zero B0s mixing at the 90% confidence level.

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Na década de 90 com o aumento da capacidade de processamento e memória dos computadores, surgiu a fotogrametria digital, que tem como objetivo principal o mapeamento automático das feições naturais e artificiais do terreno, utilizando a imagem fotogramétrica digital como fonte primária de dados. As soluções fotogramétricas se tornaram mais compactas e versáteis. A estação fotogramétrica digital educacional E-FOTO é um projeto multidisciplinar, em desenvolvimento no laboratório de Fotogrametria Digital da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, que se baseia em dois pilares: autoaprendizado e gratuidade. Este trabalho tem o objetivo geral de avaliar a qualidade das medições fotogramétricas utilizando a versão integrada 1.0β do E-FOTO. Para isso foram utilizados dois blocos de fotografias de regiões distintas do planeta: um bloco de fotografias (2005) do município de Seropédica-RJ e um bloco de fotografias antigas (1953) da região de Santiago de Compostela, na Espanha. Os resultados obtidos com o E-FOTO foram comparados com os resultados do software comercial de fotogrametria digital Leica Photogrammetry Suite (LPS 2010) e com as coordenadas no espaço-objeto de pontos medidos com posicionamento global por satélite (verdade de campo). Sendo possível avaliar as metodologias dos softwares na obtenção dos parâmetros das orientações interior e exterior e na determinação da exatidão das coordenadas no espaço-objeto dos pontos de verificação obtidas no módulo estereoplotter versão 1.64 do E-FOTO. Os resultados obtidos com a versão integrada 1.0β do E-FOTO na determinação dos parâmetros das orientações interior e exterior e no cálculo das coordenadas dos pontos de verificação, sem a inclusão dos parâmetros adicionais e a autocalibração são compatíveis com o processamento realizado com o software LPS. As diferenças dos parâmetros X0 e Y0 obtidos na orientação exterior com o E-FOTO, quando comparados com os obtidos com o LPS, incluindo os parâmetros adicionais e a autocalibração da câmara fotogramétrica, não são significativas. Em função da qualidade dos resultados obtidos e de acordo com o Padrão de Exatidão Cartográfica, seria possível obter um documento cartográfico Classe A em relação à planimetria e Classe B em relação à altimetria na escala 1/10.000, com o projeto Rural e Classe A em relação à planimetria e Classe C em relação à altimetria na escala 1/25.000, com o Projeto Santiago de Compostela. As coordenadas tridimensionais (E, N e H) dos pontos de verificação obtidas fotogrametricamente no módulo estereoplotter versão 1.64 do E-FOTO, podem ser consideradas equivalentes as medidas com tecnologia de posicionamento por satélites.

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A água é essencial à manutenção da vida. No entanto, com as situações de estresse hídrico - disponibilidade hídrica inferior a 1.700 m per capita ao ano (FALKENMARK, 1989) - vivenciadas em diversos pontos do planeta, somadas ao acelerado crescimento da população mundial, os problemas relacionados ao uso da água tendem a aumentar. Neste contexto, a pegada hídrica (PH), que é um indicador de sustentabilidade ambiental, se torna uma importante ferramenta de gestão de recursos hídricos pois indica o consumo de água doce com base em seus usos. O presente trabalho objetiva mensurar a pegada hídrica em função das componentes industrial, doméstica e alimentar da população do bairro Rocinha, um aglomerado subnormal localizado no município do Rio de Janeiro. A pesquisa se deteve a um Estudo de Caso de 20 sub-bairros da comunidade. Sua abordagem foi quantitativa, contando com uma amostra de 203 domicílios, erro amostral de 7% e grau de confiança de 93%. Para tal, foi utilizada como ferramenta de cálculo o modelo Water Footprint Network do ano de 2005. Os resultados indicaram que, em média, a PH dos indivíduos que compõem a amostra é de 1715 m/ano per capita assim divididos: PH de consumo doméstico de água de 175 m/ano per capita (479 l/hab.dia); PH de produtos agrícolas igual a 1470 m/ano per capita, e PH de produtos industrializados de 70 m/ano per capita. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que os indivíduos da amostra com uma maior despesa mensal tendem a ter pegadas hídricas industrial e total também maiores.

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A survey was conducted in 3000 fishermen households surrounding 54 wetlands (Beels) of Assam. The fish diversity of the wetlands has been decreasing during the last few years due to some extrinsic and intrinsic factors. The total number of fish species recorded so far during the present study is 67 belonging to 21 families. Cyprinidae is the most dominant family represented by major group species (8), intermediate group species (3) and minor group species (12) of high commercial value. Among these three groups, the diversity of fish species is higher in the minor group fish. The present paper deals with the economic condition of the fishermen who mainly fish in the wetlands. The economic condition of the fishermen community is found very poor. The income of fishermen varies from Rs. 4.478 to Rs.7,484 per annum. A regression analysis shows that the income of fishermen is not dependent alone on the fish production but it is exclusively dependent on the value of the fish catch. All the three groups (in terms of value) have significant influence at 10.00% confidence level. But analysis of β shows that the intermediate fish group exhibits the highest influence on the variation of the fishermen income followed by minor and major group respectively.

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This paper provides an insight into the long-term trends of the four seasonal and annual precipitations in various climatological regions and sub-regions in India. The trends were useful to investigate whether Indian seasonal rainfall is changing in terms of magnitude or location-wise. Trends were assessed over the period of 1954-2003 using parametric ordinary least square fits and non-parametric Mann-Kendall technique. The trend significance was tested at the 95% confidence level. Apart from the trends for individual climatological regions in India and the average for the whole of India, trends were also specifically determined for the possible smaller geographical areas in order to understand how different the trends would be from the bigger spatial scales. The smaller geographical regions consist of the whole southwestern continental state of Kerala. It was shown that there are decreasing trends in the spring and monsoon rainfall and increasing trends in the autumn and winter rainfalls. These changes are not always homogeneous over various regions, even in the very short scales implying a careful regional analysis would be necessary for drawing conclusions regarding agro-ecological or other local projects requiring change in rainfall information. Furthermore, the differences between the trend magnitudes and directions from the two different methods are significantly small and fall well within the significance limit for all the cases investigated in Indian regions (except where noted). © 2010 Springer-Verlag.

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A total of 361 caudal fin samples were collected from adult A. stellatus specimens caught in the north Caspian Sea, including specimens from Kazakhstan (Ural River), Russia (Volga River), Azerbaijan (Kura River), specimens caught in the south Caspian Sea including specimens from Fishery Zone 1 (from Astara to Anzali), Fishery Zone 2 (from Anzali to Ramsar), Fishery Zone 3 (from Nowshahr to Babolsar), Fishery Zone 4 (from Miyankaleh to Gomishan) as well as from specimens caught in Turkmenistan (all specimens were collected during the sturgeon stock assessment survey). About 2 g of fin tissue was removed from each caudal fin sample, stored in 96% ethyl alcohol and transferred to the genetic laboratory of the International Sturgeon Research Institute. Genomic DNA was extracted using phenol-chloroform method. The quality and quantity of DNA was assessed using 1% Agarose gel electrophoresis and Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) was conducted on the target DNA using 15 paired microsatellite primer. PCR products were electrophoresed on polyacrylamide gels (6%) that were stained using silver nitrate. Electrophoretic patterns and DNA bands were analyzed with BioCapt software. Allele count and frequency, genetic diversity, expected heterozygosity and observed heterozygosity allele number, and the effective allele number, genetic similarity and genetic distance, FST and RST were calculated. The Hardy Wienberg Equilibrium based on X2 and Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA) at 10% confidence level was calculated using the Gene Alex software. Dendrogram for genetic distances and identities were calculated using TFPGA program for any level of the hierarchy. It is evident from the results obtained that the 15 paired primers studied, polymorphism was observed in 10 pairs in 12 loci, while one locus did not produce DNA bands. Mean allele number was 13.6. Mean observed and expected heterozygosity was 0.86 and 0.642, respectively. It was also seen that specimens from all regions were not in Hardy Wienberg Equilibrium in most of the loci (P≤0.001). Highest Fst (0.063) was observed when comparing specimens from Fishery Zone 2 and Fishery Zone 4 (Nm=3.7) and lowest FST (0.028) was observed when comparing specimens from the Volga River and those from the Ural River (8.7). Significant differences (P<0.01) were observed between RST recorded in the specimens studied. Highest genetic distance (0.604) and lowest genetic resemblance (0.547) were observed between specimens from Fishery zones 2 and 4. Lowest genetic distance (0.311) and highest genetic resemblance (0.733) was observed between specimens from Turkmenistan and specimens from Fishery zone 1. Based on the genetic dendrogeram tree derived by applying UPGMA algorithm, A. stellatus specimens from Fishery zone 2 or in other words specimens from the Sepidrud River belong to one cluster which divides into two clusters, one of which includes specimens from Fishery zones 1, 3 and 4 and specimens from Turkmenistan while the other cluster includes specimens from Ural, Volga and Kura Rivers. It is thus evident that the main population of this species belongs to the Sepidrud River. Results obtained from the present study show that at least eight different populations of A. stellatus are found in the north and south Caspian Sea, four of which are known populations including the Ural River population, the Volga River population, the Kura River population and the Sepidrud River populations. The four other populations identified belonging to Fishery zones 1, 3, and 4 and to Turkmenistan are most probably late or early spawners of the spring run and autumn run of each of the major rivers mentioned. Specific markers were also identified for each of the populations identified. The Ural River population can be identified using primers Spl-68, 54b and Spl-104, 163 170, 173, the Volga River population can be identified using primers LS-54b and Spl-104, 170, 173 113a and similarly the population from the Kura River can be identified using primers LS-34, 54b and Spl-163, 173 and that from the Sepidrud River can be identified using primers LS-19, 34, 54b and Spl-105, 113b. This study gives evidence of the presence of different populations of this species and calls for serious measures to be taken to protect the genetic stocks of these populations. Considering that the population of A. stellatus in Fishery zone 2 is an independent population of the Sepidrud River in the Gilan Province, the catch of these fishes in the region needs to be controlled and regulated in order to restore the declining stocks of this species.

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The genetic structure of pikeperch (Sander lucioperca) and perch (Perca fluviatilis) populations was studied using microsatellite technique. A total of 207 specimens of adult pikeperch were collected from Aras dam (57 specimens), Anzali wetland (50 specimens), Talesh (50 specimens) and Chaboksar (50 specimens) coasts. Also a total of 158 specimens of adult perch were collected from Anzali (Abkenar (50 specimens)and Hendekhale(48 specimens)) and Amirkolaye(60 specimens) wetlands. About 2 g of each specimen's dorsal fin was removed, stored in 96% ethyl alcohol and transferred to the genetic laboratory of the International Sturgeon Research Institute. Genomic DNA was extracted using ammonium-acetate method. The quality and quantity of DNA was assessed using 1% agarose gel electrophoresis. Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) was conducted on the target DNA using 15 pairs of microsatellite primers. PCR products were electrophoresed on poly acryl amide gels (6%) that were stained that were stained using silver nitrate. DNA bands were analyzed with BioCapt software. Allele count and frequency, genetic diversity, expected and observed heterozygosity , allele number and the effective allele number, genetic similarity and genetic distance, Fst, Rst, Hardy Weinberg Equilibrium based on X2 and Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA) at 10% confidence level was calculated using the Gene Alex software. Dendogram for genetic distances and identities were calculated using TFPGA program for any level of hierarchy. The results for P. fluviatilis showed that from 15 pair of primers that were examined 6 polymorphic and 7 monomorphic loci were produced, while 2 loci didn't produce any DNA bands. Mean allele number was 4.1±1.1 and mean observed and expected heterozygosity was 0.56±0.12 and 0.58±0.14 respectively. It was also seen that specimens from all regions were not in Hardy Weinberg Equilibrium in some of loci (P<0.001). Highest Fst (0.095) with Nm=2.37 was observed between Hendekhale and Amirkolaye and the lowest Fst (0.004) with Nm=59.31 was observed between Abkenar and Hendekhale. According to AMOVA Significant difference (P<0.05) was observed between recorded Rst in the studied regions in Anzali and Amirkolaye lagoons. In another words there are two distinct populations of this species in Anzali and Amirkolaye lagoons. The highest genetic distance (0.181) and lowest genetic resemblance (0.834) were observed between specimens from Hendekhale and Amirkolaye and the lowest genetic distance (0.099) and highest genetic 176 resemblance (0.981) were observed between specimens from Abkenar and Hendekhale. Based on the genetic dendogram tree derived by applying UPGMA algorithm, specimens from Anzali and Amirkolaye wetlands have the same ancestor. On the other hand there is no noticeable genetic distance between the specimens of these two regions. Also the results for S. lucioperca showed that from 15 pair of primers that were examined 6 polymorphic and 7 monomorphic loci were produced, while 2 loci didn't produce any DNA bands. Mean allele number was 3.0±0.6 and mean observed and expected heterozygosity was 0.52±0.21 and 0.50±0.14 respectively. It was also seen that specimens from all regions were not in Hardy Weinberg Equilibrium in some of loci (P<0.001). Highest Fst (0.093) with Nm=2.43 was observed between Aras dam and Anzali wetland and the lowest Fst (0.022) with Nm=11.27 was observed between Talesh and Chaboksar coasts. Significant differences (P<0.05) were observed between recorded Rst in the studied regions exept for Talesh and Chaboksar Coasts. In another words there are three distinct populations of this species in Caspian sea, Anzali wetland and Aras dam. Highest genetic distance (0.110) and lowest genetic resemblance (0.896) were observed between specimens from Aras dam and Anzali wetland and the lowest genetic distance (0.034) and highest genetic resemblance (0.966) were observed between specimens from Talesh and Chaboksar coasts. Based on the genetic dendogram tree derived by applying UPGMA algorithm, specimens from Talesh and Chaboksar coasts have the lowest genetic distance. On the other hand the main population of this species belongs to Anzali wetland. Phylogenetic relationship of these two species was inferred using mitochondrial cytochrome b gene sequencing. For this purpose 2 specimens of P. fluviatilis from Anzali wetland, 2 specimens of S. lucioperca from Aras dam and 2 specimens of S. lucioperca from Anzali wetland were sequenced and submitted in Gene Bank. These sequences were aligned with Clustal W. The phylogenic relationships were assessed with Mega 4. The results of evolutionary history studies of these species using Neighbor-Joining and Maximum Parsimony methods showed that the evolutionary origin of pikeperch in Aras Dam and Anzali wetland is common. On the other hand these two species had common ancestor in about 4 million years ago. Also different sequences of any region specimens are supposed as different haplotypes. 177 As a conclusion the results of this study showed that microsatellite and mtDNA sequencing methods respectively are effective in genetic structure and phylogenic studies of P. fluviatilis and S. lucioperca.

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The taxonomic problem of the cyprinid species of genus Spinibarbus, occurring in southern China and northern Vietnam, was resolved on the basis of molecular and morphological analyses. Spinibarbus caldwelli and Spinibarbus hollandi have a smooth posterior edge of the last unbranched dorsal fin ray among species in the genus. Spinibarbus caldwelli is currently regarded as a junior synonym of S. hollandi because of ambiguities in diagnostic characters. In this article, 11 mtDNA cytochrome b sequences of Spinibarbus specimens were analyzed together with Barbodes gonionotus and Puntius conchonius as outgroups. Our results showed that specimens identified as S. hollandi from Taiwan were different from those from the Asian mainland at a high level of genetic divergence (0.097-0.112), which is higher than that between the two valid species, S. sinensis and S. yunnanensis ( 0.089), and suggested that Taiwan specimens should be considered as a different species from the Asian mainland one. In a molecular phylogenetic analysis, the sister-group relationship between Taiwan specimens and the Asian mainland specimens was supported strongly by a high confidence level ( 100% in bootstrap value). Further analysis of morphological characters showed that overlap of diagnostic characters is much weaker than previously suggested. Taiwan specimens had 8 branched rays in the dorsal fin, whereas those from the mainland had almost 9-10. The molecular and morphological differences suggest S. caldwelli to be valid. The molecular divergence shows the genetic speciation of S. hollandi and S. caldwelli might have occurred 5.6-4.9 million years ago; the former could be a relict species in Taiwan, and the latter dispersed in the Asian mainland.

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大熊猫(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)是我国特有的濒危野生动物之一,迁地保护已经成为大熊猫物种保护的一个重要方面。当前大熊猫圈养种群数量增长很快,但是其“多雄配一雌”的交配(配种方式),以及生产过程中记录遗失等原因,造成圈养种群普遍存在亲子关系不清、谱系混乱等问题。为了加强遗传管理,有必要进行亲子关系鉴定、完善谱系;还需要检测种群的基因多样性水平,并在此基础上提出相应的遗传管理建议。 本研究应用9个具有高度多态性的大熊猫微卫星标记,对来自成都大熊猫繁育研究基地2006和2007年度出生的17只大熊猫幼崽及其全部候选父母共37个样品做了基因型分析;然后应用最大似然法,判断幼崽的父-子关系。同时,还对来自卧龙大熊猫保护研究中心的31只大熊猫个体也做了基因分型。将两个种群的数据进行比较:1)等位基因多样性和杂合度水平;2)通过F统计法,分析两个种群的遗传分化水平;3)通过遗传距离法,对所有个体进行聚类分析。 研究结果表明: 1)在母子关系不清的情况下,9个微卫星标记联合的父亲鉴定排除概率E为0.940090;而在母子关系确实的条件下,E= 0.993933。由于本研究中所有后代的母亲都是清楚的,因此这9个微卫星位点能够有效用于圈养大熊猫的亲子鉴定。似然法分析也表明,本研究所获得的亲子鉴定结果置信度在95%以上。 2)2005年种源交换后,成都大熊猫的等位基因多样性和杂合度水平都略高于卧龙种群(但没有达到显著水平),两个种群间的遗传分化水平也有所降低。但是,与卧龙相比,成都种群面临较大的近交压力。 基于以上研究结果,我们建议:进一步加强种源交换和基因交流,把两个种群当作一个遗传单元(MU)来进行管理。 Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is one of the endangerd wildlife endemic to China, and the ex-situ breeding become more and more important for the conservation of this speices. Although the captive population is expanding rapidly, the uncertainty occurs because the paternities of cubs are not clear due to the breeding pattern of “multiple male to single female,”as well as the records lost, resulting in errors in the studbook. For this reason, the paternity of the cubs and the genetic diversity of the captive giant pandas should be tested carefully to get information for the genetic management in the future. 9 polymorphism microsatellite markers were used to do paternity assignment for the 17 cubs born in 2006 and 2007 from Chengdu Research Base for Giant Panda Breeding (CGB) based on the maximum-likelihood methods. A total of 37 individuals were sampled, including all the candidate dams and sires. These samples were also used for comparing with 31 individuals sampling from Wolong China Research and Conservation Center for the Giant Panda (WCG). The comparing indexes were: 1) Allelic diversity and heterozygosity; 2) Genetic differentiation based on F-statistic; 3) Cluster analysis based on genetic distance. The results show that: 1) If the mother is unkown, the combined exclusion probability using these 9 loci is 0.940090. If the mother is known then the exclusion probability is 0.993933. Since the dam-offspring relationship is known in captive populations, the results could resolve unknown paternities in the study. And the confidence level of the results is 95% based on the likelihood methods. 2) The allelic diversity and the heterozygosity of CGB were higher than WCG (n ot significant), and the genetic differentiation was reduced a little since the genetic exchange between two populations in 2005. However, the population of CGB will be threatening by inbreeding seriously than that of WCG. From above, we suggest to reiforce the genetic exchange and geneflow between CGB and WCG, and these two populations should be regarded as one genetic management unit (MU).

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The deformed doubly magic nucleus (270)Hs has so far only been observed as the four-neutron (4n) evaporation residue of the reaction Mg-26+Cm-248, where a maximum cross section of 3 pb was measured. Theoretical studies on the formation of (270)Hs in the 4n evaporation channel of fusion reactions with different entrance channel asymmetry in the framework of a two-parameter Smoluchowski equation predict that the reactions Ca-48+Ra-226 and S-36+U-238 result in higher cross sections due to lower reaction Q values, in contrast to simple arguments based on the reaction asymmetry, which predict opposite trends. Calculations using HIVAP predict cross sections for the reaction S-36+U-238 that are similar to those of the Mg-26+Cm-248 reaction. Here, we report on the first measurement of evaporation residues formed in the complete nuclear fusion reaction S-36+U-238 and the observation of (270)Hs, which is produced in the 4n evaporation channel, with a measured cross section of 0.8(-0.7)(+2.6) pb at 51-MeV excitation energy. The one-event cross-section limits (68% confidence level) for the 3n, 4n, and 5n evaporation channels at 39-MeV excitation energy are 2.9 pb, while the cross-section limits of the 3n and 5n channel at 51 MeV are 1.5 pb. This is significantly lower than the 5n cross section of the Mg-26+Cm-248 reaction at similar excitation energy.

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We present a measurement of pi(+)pi(-)pi(+)pi(-) photonuclear production in ultraperipheral Au-Au collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV from the STAR experiment. The pi(+)pi(-)pi(+)pi(-) final states are observed at low transverse momentum and are accompanied by mutual nuclear excitation of the beam particles. The strong enhancement of the production cross section at low transverse momentum is consistent with coherent photoproduction. The pi(+)pi(-)pi(+)pi(-) invariant mass spectrum of the coherent events exhibits a broad peak around 1540 +/- 40 MeV/c(2) with a width of 570 +/- 60 MeV/c(2), in agreement with the photoproduction data for the rho(0)(1700). We do not observe a corresponding peak in the pi(+)pi(-) final state and measure an upper limit for the ratio of the branching fractions of the rho(0)(1700) to pi(+)pi(-) and pi(+)pi(-)pi(+)pi(-) of 2.5% at 90% confidence level. The ratio of rho(0)(1700) and rho(0)(770) coherent production cross sections is measured to be 13.4 +/- 0.8(stat.) +/- 4.4(syst.)%.

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Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is used in this study to generate main eigenvector fields of historical temperature for the China Seas (here referring to Chinese marine territories) and adjacent waters from 1930 to 2002 (510 143 profiles). A good temperature profile is reconstructed based on several subsurface in situ temperature observations and the thermocline was estimated using the model. The results show that: 1) For the study area, the former four principal components can explain 95% of the overall variance, and the vertical distribution of temperature is most stable using the in situ temperature observations near the surface. 2) The model verifications based on the observed CTD data from the East China Sea (ECS), South China Sea (SCS) and the areas around Taiwan Island show that the reconstructed profiles have high correlation with the observed ones with the confidence level > 95%, especially to describe the characteristics of the thermocline well. The average errors between the reconstructed and observed profiles in these three areas are 0.69A degrees C, 0.52A degrees C and 1.18A degrees C respectively. It also shows the model RMS error is less than or close to the climatological error. The statistical model can be used to well estimate the temperature profile vertical structure. 3) Comparing the thermocline characteristics between the reconstructed and observed profiles, the results in the ECS show that the average absolute errors are 1.5m, 1.4 m and 0.17A degrees C/m, and the average relative errors are 24.7%, 8.9% and 22.6% for the upper, lower thermocline boundaries and the gradient, respectively. Although the relative errors are obvious, the absolute error is small. In the SCS, the average absolute errors are 4.1 m, 27.7 m and 0.007A degrees C/m, and the average relative errors are 16.1%, 16.8% and 9.5% for the upper, lower thermocline boundaries and the gradient, respectively. The average relative errors are all < 20%. Although the average absolute error of the lower thermocline boundary is considerable, but contrast to the spatial scale of average depth of the lower thermocline boundary (165 m), the average relative error is small (16.8%). Therefore the model can be used to well estimate the thermocline.

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温度跃层是反映海洋温度场的重要物理特性指标,对水下通讯、潜艇活动及渔业养殖、捕捞等有重要影响。本文利用中国科学院海洋研究所“中国海洋科学数据库”在中国近海及西北太平洋(110ºE-140ºE,10ºN-40ºN)的多年历史资料(1930-2002年,510143站次),基于一种改进的温跃层判定方法,分析了该海域温跃层特征量的时空分布状况。同时利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM),对中国近海,特别是东南沿海的水文结构进行了模拟,研究了海洋水文环境对逆温跃层的影响。最后根据历史海温观测资料,利用EOF分解统计技术,提出了一种适于我国近海及毗邻海域,基于现场有限层实测海温数据,快速重构海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报方法,以达到对现场温跃层的快速估计。 历史资料分析结果表明,受太阳辐射和风应力的影响,20°N以北研究海域,温跃层季节变化明显,夏季温跃层最浅、最强,冬季相反,温跃层厚度的相位明显滞后于其他变量,其在春季最薄、秋季最厚。12月份到翌年3月份,渤、黄及东海西岸,呈无跃层结构,西北太平洋部分海域从1月到3月份,也基本无跃层结构。在黄海西和东岸以及台湾海峡附近的浅滩海域,由于风力搅拌和潮混合作用,温跃层出现概率常年较低。夏季,海水层化现象在近海陆架海域得到了加强,陆架海域温跃层强度季节性变化幅度(0.31°C/m)明显大于深水区(约0.05°C/m),而前者温跃层深度和厚度的季节性变化幅度小于后者。20°N以南研究海域,温跃层季节变化不明显。逆温跃层主要出现在冬、春季节(10月-翌年5月)。受长江冲淡水和台湾暖流的影响,东南沿海区域逆温跃层持续时间最长,出现概率最大,而在山东半岛北及东沿岸、朝鲜半岛西及北岸,逆温跃层消长过程似乎和黄海暖流有关。多温跃层结构常年出现于北赤道流及对马暖流区。在黑潮入侵黄、东、南海的区域,多温跃层呈现明显不同的季节变化。在黄海中部,春季多温跃层发生概率高于夏季和秋季,在东海西部,多跃层主要出现在夏季,在南海北部,冬季和春季多温跃层发生概率大于夏季和秋季。这些变化可能主要受海表面温度变化和风力驱动的表层流的影响。 利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM),对中国东南沿海逆温跃层结构进行了模拟,模拟结果显示,长江冲淡水的季节性变化以及夏季转向与实际结果符合较好,基本再现了渤、黄、东海海域主要的环流、温盐场以及逆温跃层的分布特征和季节变化。通过数值实验发现,若无长江、黄河淡水输入,则在整个研究海域基本无逆温跃层出现,因此陆源淡水可能是河口附近逆温跃层出现的基本因素之一。长江以及暖流(黑潮和台湾暖流)流量的增加,均可在不同程度上使逆温跃层出现概率及强度、深度和厚度增加,且暖流的影响更加明显。长江对东南沿海逆温跃层的出现,特别是秋季到冬季初期,有明显的影响,使长江口海域逆温跃层位置偏向东南。暖流对于中国东南沿海的逆温跃层结构,特别是初春时期,有较大影响,使长江口海域的逆温跃层位置向东北偏移。 通过对温跃层长期变化分析得出,黄海冷水团区域,夏季温跃层强度存在3.8年左右的年际变化及18.9年左右的年代际变化,此变化可能主要表现为对当年夏季和前冬东亚地区大气气温的热力响应。东海冷涡区域,夏季温跃层强度存在3.7年的年际变化,在El Nino年为正的强度异常,其可能主要受局地气旋式大气环流变异所影响。谱分析同时表明,该海域夏季温跃层强度还存在33.2年的年代际变化,上世纪70年代中期,温跃层强度由弱转强,而此变化可能与黑潮流量的年代际变化有关。 海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报结果显示,EOF分解的前四个主分量即能够解释原空间点温度距平总方差的95%以上,以海洋表层附近观测资料求解的特征系数推断温度垂直结构分布的结果最稳定。利用东海陆架区、南海深水区和台湾周边海域三个不同区域的实测CTD样本廓线资料,对重构模型的检验结果表明,重构与实测廓线的相关程度超过95%的置信水平。三个区重构与实测温度廓线值的平均误差分别为0.69℃,0.52℃,1.18℃,平均重构廓线误差小于平均气候偏差,统计模式可以很好的估算温度廓线垂直结构。东海陆架海区温度垂直重构廓线与CTD观测廓线获得的温跃层结果对比表明,重构温跃层上界、下界深度和强度的平均绝对误差分别为1.51m、1.36m和0.17℃/m,它们的平均相对误差分别为24.7%、8.9%和22.6%,虽然温跃层深度和强度的平均相对误差较大,但其绝对误差量值较小。而在南海海区,模型重构温跃层上界、下界和强度的平均绝对预报误差分别为4.1m、27.7m和0.007℃/m,它们的平均相对误差分别为16.1%、16.8%和9.5%,重构温跃层各特征值的平均相对误差都在20%以内。虽然南海区温跃层下界深度平均绝对预报误差较大,但相对于温跃层下界深度的空间尺度变化而言(平均温跃层下界深度为168m),平均相对误差仅为16.8%。因此说模型重构的温度廓线可以达到对我国陆架海域、深水区温跃层的较好估算。 基于对历史水文温度廓线观测资料的分析及自主温跃层统计预报模型,研制了实时可利用微机简单、快捷地进行温跃层估算及查询的可视化系统,这是迄今进行大范围海域温跃层统计与实时预报研究的较系统成果。

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Western China is regarded as an assemblage of blocks or microplates. The India/Asia postcollisional kinematics of these blocks has attracted many geologists to pay attentions, especially on the geodynamics and intracontinental deformation of Tibetan and adjoining parts of central Asia. So far there are still many debates on the amount of continental shortening and extrusion within Western China blocks. Paleomagnetism plays a very important role in the paleogeographic reconstruction and depiction of kinematics of the blocks, however the unequilibrium of paleomagentic data obtained from Western China prevents paleomagnetists from studying the kinematics and intracontinental deformation on the Tibetan plateau and the central Asia. Moreover, shallower inclinations observed in the Cretaceous and Cenozoic terrestrial red sediments in central Asia makes it difficult to precisely estimate the northward convergence of Tibetan plateau and its adjacent areas since the onset of the Indian/Asian collision. In this thesis, detailed rock magnetic, chronological and paleomagnetic studies have been carried out on the Tuoyun Basin in the southwestern Tianshan to discuss the possible continental shortening and tectonic movements since the Cretaceous-Tertiary. Ar-Ar geochronological study has been conducted on the upper and lower basalt series from the Tuoyun Basin, yielding that the lower and upper basalt series were extruded during 115-113 Ma and 61.8-56.9 Ma, respectively. Both the age spectrum and inverse isochron show that the samples from the upper and lower basalt series have experienced no significant thermal events since extrusion of the baslts. Rock magnetic studies including temperature dependence of magnetization and susceptibility during a heating-cooling cycle from temperature up to 600 ℃ suggest that the baslt samples from the lower and upper basalt series are ferromagnetically predominant of magnetite and a subordinate hematite with a few sites of titanomagnetite. The predominant magnetic mineral of the intercalated red beds is magnetite and hematite. Anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility shows that both the baslts and the intercalated red beds are unlikely to have undergone significant strain due to compaction or tectonic stress since formation of the rocks. The stable characteristic remanent magnetization (ChRM) isolated from the most samples of the upper and lower basalt series and intercalated red beds, passes fold test at the 99% confidence level. Together with the geochronological results, we interpret the characteristic component as a primary magnetization acquired in the formation of rocks. Some sites from both the upper and lower basalts yielded shallower inclinations than the reference field computed from the Eurasia APW, we prefer to argue that these shallow inclinations might be related to geomagnetic secular variation, whereas the shallow inclination in the intercalated red beds is likely to be related to detrital remanent magnetization. Paleomagnetic results from the early Cretaceous-Paleogene basalts indicate that no significant N-S convergence has taken place between the Tuoyun Basin and the south margin of Siberia. Furthermore, the Cretaceous and Tertiary paleomagnetic results suggest that the Tuoyun Basin was subjected to a local clockwise rotation of 20°-30° with respect to Eurasia since the Paleocene time, which is probably subsequent to the Cenozoic northward compression of the Pamir arc.