Glomerular damage as a predictor of renal allograft loss

Interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IF/TA) are the most common cause of renal graft failure. Chronic transplant glomerulopathy (CTG) is present in approximately 1.5-3.0% of all renal grafts. We retrospectively studied the contribution of CTG and recurrent post-transplant glomerulopathies (RGN) to graft loss. We analyzed 123 patients with chronic renal allograft dysfunction and divided them into three groups: CTG (N = 37), RGN (N = 21), and IF/TA (N = 65). Demographic data were analyzed and the variables related to graft function identified by statistical methods. CTG had a significantly lower allograft survival than IF/TA. In a multivariate analysis, protective factors for allograft outcomes were: use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI; hazard ratio (HR) = 0.12, P = 0.001), mycophenolate mofetil (MMF; HR = 0.17, P = 0.026), hepatitis C virus (HR = 7.29, P = 0.003), delayed graft function (HR = 5.32, P = 0.016), serum creatinine ≥1.5 mg/dL at the 1st year post-transplant (HR = 0.20, P = 0.011), and proteinuria ≥0.5 g/24 h at the 1st year post-transplant (HR = 0.14, P = 0.004). The presence of glomerular damage is a risk factor for allograft loss (HR = 4.55, P = 0.015). The presence of some degree of chronic glomerular damage in addition to the diagnosis of IF/TA was the most important risk factor associated with allograft loss since it could indicate chronic active antibody-mediated rejection. ACEI and MMF were associated with better outcomes, indicating that they might improve graft survival.

Multiple facets of HIV-associated renal disease

HIV infection has a broad spectrum of renal manifestations. This study examined the clinical and histological manifestations of HIV-associated renal disease, and predictors of renal outcomes. Sixty-one (64% male, mean age 45 years) HIV patients were retrospectively evaluated. Clinical presentation and renal histopathology were assessed, as well as CD4 T-cell count and viral load. The predictive value of histological lesion, baseline CD4 cell count and viral load for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or death were determined using the Cox regression model. The outcomes of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and ESRD or death were evaluated by baseline CD4 cell count. The percent distribution at initial clinical presentation was non-nephrotic proteinuria (54%), acute kidney injury (28%), nephrotic syndrome (23%), and chronic kidney disease (22%). Focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (28%), mainly the collapsing form (HIVAN), acute interstitial nephritis (AIN) (26%), and immune complex-mediated glomerulonephritis (ICGN) (25%) were the predominant renal histology. Baseline CD4 cell count ≥200 cells/mm3 was a protective factor against CKD (hazard ratio=0.997; 95%CI=0.994-0.999; P=0.012). At last follow-up, 64% of patients with baseline CD4 ≥200 cells/mm3 had eGFR >60 mL·min-1·(1.73 m2)-1 compared to the other 35% of patients who presented with CD4 <200 cells/mm3 (log rank=9.043, P=0.003). In conclusion, the main histological lesion of HIV-associated renal disease was HIVAN, followed by AIN and ICGN. These findings reinforce the need to biopsy HIV patients with kidney impairment and/or proteinuria. Baseline CD4 cell count ≥200 cells/mm3 was associated with better renal function after 2 years of follow-up.

Estimation du modèle GARCH à changement de régimes et son utilité pour quantifier le risque de modèle dans les applications financières en actuariat

Le modèle GARCH à changement de régimes est le fondement de cette thèse. Ce modèle offre de riches dynamiques pour modéliser les données financières en combinant une structure GARCH avec des paramètres qui varient dans le temps. Cette flexibilité donne malheureusement lieu à un problème de path dependence, qui a empêché l'estimation du modèle par le maximum de vraisemblance depuis son introduction, il y a déjà près de 20 ans. La première moitié de cette thèse procure une solution à ce problème en développant deux méthodologies permettant de calculer l'estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance du modèle GARCH à changement de régimes. La première technique d'estimation proposée est basée sur l'algorithme Monte Carlo EM et sur l'échantillonnage préférentiel, tandis que la deuxième consiste en la généralisation des approximations du modèle introduites dans les deux dernières décennies, connues sous le nom de collapsing procedures. Cette généralisation permet d'établir un lien méthodologique entre ces approximations et le filtre particulaire. La découverte de cette relation est importante, car elle permet de justifier la validité de l'approche dite par collapsing pour estimer le modèle GARCH à changement de régimes. La deuxième moitié de cette thèse tire sa motivation de la crise financière de la fin des années 2000 pendant laquelle une mauvaise évaluation des risques au sein de plusieurs compagnies financières a entraîné de nombreux échecs institutionnels. À l'aide d'un large éventail de 78 modèles économétriques, dont plusieurs généralisations du modèle GARCH à changement de régimes, il est démontré que le risque de modèle joue un rôle très important dans l'évaluation et la gestion du risque d'investissement à long terme dans le cadre des fonds distincts. Bien que la littérature financière a dévoué beaucoup de recherche pour faire progresser les modèles économétriques dans le but d'améliorer la tarification et la couverture des produits financiers, les approches permettant de mesurer l'efficacité d'une stratégie de couverture dynamique ont peu évolué. Cette thèse offre une contribution méthodologique dans ce domaine en proposant un cadre statistique, basé sur la régression, permettant de mieux mesurer cette efficacité.

Burnt offerings and harpies at Nasidienus’ dinner-party (Horace, Satires 2.8)

Horace's last Satire describes a disastrous dinner party hosted by the gourmet Nasidienus, which is ruined by a collapsing tapestry. The food served afterwards is presented in a dismembered state. This chapter argues that several elements of the scene recall the greedy Harpies of Apollonius' Argonautica, and that Horace's friend Virgil shows the influence of this Satire in his own Harpy-scene in Aeneid 3. It also argues that the confusion in the middle of the dinner causes the food cooking in the kitchen to be neglected and burned. This explains the state of the subsequent courses, which Nasidienus has salvaged from a separate disaster backstage.

Purification and electron cryomicroscopy of coronavirus particles

Intact, enveloped coronavirus particles vary widely in size and contour, and are thus refractory to study by traditional structural means such as X-ray crystallography. Electron microscopy (EM) overcomes some problems associated with particle variability and has been an important tool for investigating coronavirus ultrastructure. However, EM sample preparation requires that the specimen be dried onto a carbon support film before imaging, collapsing internal particle structure in the case of coronaviruses. Moreover, conventional EM achieves image contrast by immersing the specimen briefly in heavy-metal-containing stain, which reveals some features while obscuring others. Electron cryomicroscopy (cryo-EM) instead employs a porous support film, to which the specimen is adsorbed and flash-frozen. Specimens preserved in vitreous ice over holes in the support film can then be imaged without additional staining. Cryo-EM, coupled with single-particle image analysis techniques, makes it possible to examine the size, structure and arrangement of coronavirus structural components in fully hydrated, native virions. Two virus purification procedures are described.

A three-regime model of speculative behaviour: modelling the evolution of the S&P 500 composite index

We examine whether a three-regime model that allows for dormant, explosive and collapsing speculative behaviour can explain the dynamics of the S&P 500. We extend existing models of speculative behaviour by including a third regime that allows a bubble to grow at a steady rate, and propose abnormal volume as an indicator of the probable time of bubble collapse. We also examine the financial usefulness of the three-regime model by studying a trading rule formed using inferences from it, whose use leads to higher Sharpe ratios and end of period wealth than from employing existing models or a buy-and-hold strategy.

Intrinsic and rational speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market 1960-2011

This paper examines the dynamics of the residential property market in the United States between 1960 and 2011. Given the cyclically and apparent overvaluation of the market over this period, we determine whether deviations of real estate prices from their fundamentals were caused by the existence of two genres of bubbles: intrinsic bubbles and rational speculative bubbles. We find evidence of an intrinsic bubble in the market pre-2000, implying that overreaction to changes in rents contributed to the overvaluation of real estate prices. However, using a regime-switching model, we find evidence of periodically collapsing rational bubbles in the post-2000 market

A 96-well plate fluorescence assay for assessment of cellular permeability and active efflux in Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium and Escherichia coli

Multiply antibiotic-resistant (MAR) mutants of Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica are characterized by reduced susceptibility to several unrelated antibiotics, biocides and other xenobiotics. Porin loss and/or active efflux have been identified as a key mechanisms of MAR. A single rapid test was developed for MAR. The intracellular accumulation of the fluorescent probe Hoechst (H) 33342 (bisbenzimide) by MAR mutants and those with defined disruptions in efflux pump and porin genes was determined in 96-well plate format. The accumulation of H33342 was significantly (P < 0.0001) reduced in MAR mutants of S. enterica serovar Typhimurium (n = 4) and E. coli (n = 3) by 41 +/- 8% and 17.3 +/- 7.2%, respectively, compared with their parental strains, which was reversed by the transmembrane proton gradient-collapsing agent carbonyl cyanide-m-chlorophenyl hydrazone (CCCP) and the efflux pump inhibitor phenylalanine-arginine-beta-naphthylamide (PA beta N). The accumulation of H33342 was significantly reduced in mutants of Salmonella Typhimurium with defined disruptions in genes encoding the porins OmpC, OmpF, OmpX and OmpW, but increased in those with disruptions in efflux pump components TolC, AcrB and AcrF. Reduced accumulation of H33342 in three other MAR mutants of Salmonella Typhimurium correlated with the expression of porin and efflux pump proteins. The intracellular accumulation of H33342 provided a sensitive and specific test for MAR that is cheap and relatively rapid. Differential sensitivity to CCCP and PA beta N provided a further means to phenotypically identify MAR mutants and the role of active efflux in each strain.

'Response and Responsibility: Theories of the Implied Reader in Children's Literature Criticism'

Reader Response Theory remains popular within Children's Literature Criticism. It seems to offer a sensible resolution to the question of whether meaning derives from text or reader. Through a close reading of one example of this criticism, I suggest that its dualisms are constantly collapsing into appeals to singular authority. at various stages the text or the reader is wholly responsible for meaning. I further suggest that the criticism bypasses the question of interpretation through claiming knowledge of a child reader whose opinions and reactions can be unproblematically accessed. We do not have to worry about reading texts, because we can, apparently, know the child's response to them with certainty. Anything other than this claim to certainty is taken to be a failure of responsibility, a wallowing in the subjective, obscure and perverse. My intention is to reinstate reading as the responsibility of criticism.

Commercial real estate and equity market bubbles: are they contagious to REITs?

This paper uses a regime-switching approach to determine whether prices in the US stock, direct real estate and indirect real estate markets are driven by the presence of speculative bubbles. The results show significant evidence of the existence of periodically partially collapsing speculative bubbles in all three markets. A multivariate bubble model is then developed and implemented to evaluate whether the stock and real estate bubbles spill over into REITs. The underlying stock market bubble is found to be a stronger influence on the securitised real estate market bubble than that of the property market. Furthermore, the findings suggest a transmission of speculative bubbles from the direct real estate to the stock market, although this link is not present for the returns themselves.

Computer simulations of pyroclastic flows from dome collapse

We present a method of simulating both the avalanche and surge components of pyroclastic flows generated by lava collapsing from a growing Pelean dome. This is used to successfully model the pyroclastic flows generated on 12 May 1996 by the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat. In simulating the avalanche component we use a simple 3-fold parameterisation of flow acceleration for which we choose values using an inverse method. The surge component is simulated by a 1D hydraulic balance of sedimentation of clasts and entrainment of air away from the avalanche source. We show how multiple simulations based on uncertainty of the starting conditions and parameters, specifically location and size (mass flux), could be used to map hazard zones.

The stability of ecosystems: a brief overview of the paradox of enrichment

In theory, enrichment of resource in a predator-prey model leads to destabilization of the system, thereby collapsing the trophic interaction, a phenomenon referred to as "the paradox of enrichment". After it was first proposed by Rosenzweig (1971), a number of subsequent studies were carried out on this dilemma over many decades. In this article, we review these theoretical and experimental works and give a brief overview of the proposed solutions to the paradox. The mechanisms that have been discussed are modifications of simple predator-prey models in the presence of prey that is inedible, invulnerable, unpalatable and toxic. Another class of mechanisms includes an incorporation of a ratio-dependent functional form, inducible defence of prey and density-dependent mortality of the predator. Moreover, we find a third set of explanations based on complex population dynamics including chaos in space and time. We conclude that, although any one of the various mechanisms proposed so far might potentially prevent destabilization of the predator-prey dynamics following enrichment, in nature different mechanisms may combine to cause stability, even when a system is enriched. The exact mechanisms, which may differ among systems, need to be disentangled through extensive field studies and laboratory experiments coupled with realistic theoretical models.

Speculative bubbles and the cross-sectional variation in stock returns

Evidence suggests that rational, periodically collapsing speculative bubbles may be pervasive in stock markets globally, but there is no research that considers them at the individual stock level. In this study we develop and test an empirical asset pricing model that allows for speculative bubbles to affect stock returns. We show that stocks incorporating larger bubbles yield higher returns. The bubble deviation, at the stock level as opposed to the industry or market level, is a priced source of risk that is separate from the standard market risk, size and value factors. We demonstrate that much of the common variation in stock returns that can be attributable to market risk is due to the co-movement of bubbles rather than being driven by fundamentals.

Booms and busts in commodity markets: bubbles or fundamentals?

This paper considers whether there were periodically collapsing rational speculative bubbles in commodity prices over a 40-year period from the late 1960s. We apply a switching regression approach to a broad range of commodities using two different measures of fundamental values—estimated from convenience yields and from a set of macroeconomic factors believed to affect commodity demand. We find reliable evidence for bubbles only among crude oil and feeder cattle, showing the popular belief that the extreme price movements observed in commodity markets were caused by pure speculation to be unsustainable

DIFFUSION OF MAGNETIC FIELD AND REMOVAL OF MAGNETIC FLUX FROM CLOUDS VIA TURBULENT RECONNECTION

The diffusion of astrophysical magnetic fields in conducting fluids in the presence of turbulence depends on whether magnetic fields can change their topology via reconnection in highly conducting media. Recent progress in understanding fast magnetic reconnection in the presence of turbulence reassures that the magnetic field behavior in computer simulations and turbulent astrophysical environments is similar, as far as magnetic reconnection is concerned. This makes it meaningful to perform MHD simulations of turbulent flows in order to understand the diffusion of magnetic field in astrophysical environments. Our studies of magnetic field diffusion in turbulent medium reveal interesting new phenomena. First of all, our three-dimensional MHD simulations initiated with anti-correlating magnetic field and gaseous density exhibit at later times a de-correlation of the magnetic field and density, which corresponds well to the observations of the interstellar media. While earlier studies stressed the role of either ambipolar diffusion or time-dependent turbulent fluctuations for de-correlating magnetic field and density, we get the effect of permanent de-correlation with one fluid code, i.e., without invoking ambipolar diffusion. In addition, in the presence of gravity and turbulence, our three-dimensional simulations show the decrease of the magnetic flux-to-mass ratio as the gaseous density at the center of the gravitational potential increases. We observe this effect both in the situations when we start with equilibrium distributions of gas and magnetic field and when we follow the evolution of collapsing dynamically unstable configurations. Thus, the process of turbulent magnetic field removal should be applicable both to quasi-static subcritical molecular clouds and cores and violently collapsing supercritical entities. The increase of the gravitational potential as well as the magnetization of the gas increases the segregation of the mass and magnetic flux in the saturated final state of the simulations, supporting the notion that the reconnection-enabled diffusivity relaxes the magnetic field + gas system in the gravitational field to its minimal energy state. This effect is expected to play an important role in star formation, from its initial stages of concentrating interstellar gas to the final stages of the accretion to the forming protostar. In addition, we benchmark our codes by studying the heat transfer in magnetized compressible fluids and confirm the high rates of turbulent advection of heat obtained in an earlier study.