A simulation of the last glacial maximum climate using the NCAR-CCSM

The National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) is used in a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21,000 years ago) climate. In the tropics, the simulation shows a moderate cooling of 3 °C over land and 2 °C in the ocean in zonal average. This cooling is about 1 °C cooler than the CLIMAP sea surface temperatures (SSTs) but consistent with recent estimates of both land and sea surface temperature changes. Subtropical waters are cooled by 2–2.5 °C, also in agreement with recent estimates. The simulated oceanic thermohaline circulation at the LGM is not only shallower but also weaker than the modern with a migration of deep-water formation site in the North Atlantic as suggested by the paleoceanographic evidences. The simulated northward flow of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is enhanced. These deep circulation changes are attributable to the increased surface density flux in the Southern Ocean caused by sea-ice expansion at the LGM. Both the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio are intensified due to the overall increase of wind stress over the subtropical oceans. The intensified zonal wind stress and southward shift of its maximum in the Southern Ocean effectively enhances the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) by more than 50%. Simulated SSTs are lowered by up to 8 °C in the midlatitudes. Simulated conditions in the North Atlantic are warmer and with less sea-ice than indicated by CLIMAP again, in agreement with more recent estimates. The increased meridional SST gradient at the LGM results in an enhanced Hadley Circulation and increased midlatitude storm track precipitation. The increased baroclinic storm activity also intensifies the meridional atmospheric heat transport. A sensitivity experiment shows that about half of the simulated tropical cooling at the LGM originates from reduced atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.

Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate associated with different ENSO phases by ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts

Predictability of the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate associated with different El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases is investigated in this study based on the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES. During the period from 1960 to 2005, the models well capture the WNP summer climate anomalies during most of years in different ENSO phases except the La Niña decaying summers. In the El Niño developing, El Niño decaying and La Niña developing summers, the prediction skills are high for the WNP summer monsoon index (WNPMI), with the prediction correlation larger than 0.7. The high prediction skills of the lower-tropospheric circulation during these phases are found mainly over the tropical western Pacific Ocean, South China Sea and subtropical WNP. These good predictions correspond well to their close teleconnection with ENSO and the high prediction skills of tropical SSTs. By contrast, for the La Niña decaying summers, the prediction skills are considerably low with the prediction correlation for the WNPMI near to zero and low prediction skills around the Philippines and subtropical WNP. These poor predictions relate to the weak summer anomalies of the WNPMI during the La Niña decaying years and no significant connections between the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies and the SSTs over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean in observations. However, the models tend to predict an apparent anomalous cyclone over the WNP during the La Niña decaying years, indicating a linearity of the circulation response over WNP in the models prediction in comparison with that during the El Niño decaying years which differs from observations. In addition, the models show considerable capability in describing the WNP summer anomalies during the ENSO neutral summers. These anomalies are related to the positive feedback between the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation and the local SSTs. The models can capture this positive feedback but with some uncertainties from different ensemble members during the ENSO neutral summers.

Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density changes for 1993-2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs

Predictions of twenty-first century sea level change show strong regional variation. Regional sea level change observed by satellite altimetry since 1993 is also not spatially homogenous. By comparison with historical and pre-industrial control simulations using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the CMIP5 project, we conclude that the observed pattern is generally dominated by unforced (internal generated) variability, although some regions, especially in the Southern Ocean, may already show an externally forced response. Simulated unforced variability cannot explain the observed trends in the tropical Pacific, but we suggest that this is due to inadequate simulation of variability by CMIP5 AOGCMs, rather than evidence of anthropogenic change. We apply the method of pattern scaling to projections of sea level change and show that it gives accurate estimates of future local sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing as simulated by the AOGCMs under RCP scenarios, implying that the pattern will remain stable in future decades. We note, however, that use of a single integration to evaluate the performance of the pattern-scaling method tends to exaggerate its accuracy. We find that ocean volume mean temperature is generally a better predictor than global mean surface temperature of the magnitude of sea level change, and that the pattern is very similar under the different RCPs for a given model. We determine that the forced signal will be detectable above the noise of unforced internal variability within the next decade globally and may already be detectable in the tropical Atlantic.

Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks

There are large uncertainties in the circulation response of the atmosphere to climate change. One manifestation of this is the substantial spread in projections for the extratropical storm tracks made by different state-of-the-art climate models. In this study we perform a series of sensitivity experiments, with the atmosphere component of a single climate model, in order to identify the causes of the differences between storm track responses in different models. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble are considered. A number of potential physical drivers of storm track change are identified and their influence on the storm tracks is assessed. The experimental design aims to perturb the different physical drivers independently, by magnitudes representative of the range of values present in the CMIP3 model runs, and this is achieved via perturbations to the sea surface temperature and the sea-ice concentration forcing fields. We ask the question: can the spread of projections for the extratropical storm tracks present in the CMIP3 models be accounted for in a simple way by any of the identified drivers? The results suggest that, whilst the changes in the upper-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference have an influence on the storm track response to climate change, the large spread of projections for the extratropical storm track present in the northern North Atlantic in particular is more strongly associated with changes in the lower-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference.

Sensitivity of a coupled climate model to canopy interception capacity

The canopy interception capacity is a small but key part of the surface hydrology, which affects the amount of water intercepted by vegetation and therefore the partitioning of evaporation and transpiration. However, little research with climate models has been done to understand the effects of a range of possible canopy interception capacity parameter values. This is in part due to the assumption that it does not significantly affect climate. Near global evapotranspiration products now make evaluation of canopy interception capacity parameterisations possible. We use a range of canopy water interception capacity values from the literature to investigate the effect on climate within the climate model HadCM3. We find that the global mean temperature is affected by up to -0.64 K globally and -1.9 K regionally. These temperature impacts are predominantly due to changes in the evaporative fraction and top of atmosphere albedo. In the tropics, the variations in evapotranspiration affect precipitation, significantly enhancing rainfall. Comparing the model output to measurements, we find that the default canopy interception capacity parameterisation overestimates canopy interception loss (i.e. canopy evaporation) and underestimates transpiration. Overall, decreasing canopy interception capacity improves the evapotranspiration partitioning in HadCM3, though the measurement literature more strongly supports an increase. The high sensitivity of climate to the parameterisation of canopy interception capacity is partially due to the high number of light rain-days in the climate model that means that interception is overestimated. This work highlights the hitherto underestimated importance of canopy interception capacity in climate model hydroclimatology and the need to acknowledge the role of precipitation representation limitations in determining parameterisations.

Quantifying the role of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in climate change: coupled model simulation for 6000 years B.P. and comparison with palaeodata for northern Eurasia and northern Africa

The LMD AGCM was iteratively coupled to the global BIOME1 model in order to explore the role of vegetation-climate interactions in response to mid-Holocene (6000 y BP) orbital forcing. The sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distribution used were present-day and CO2 concentration was pre-industrial. The land surface was initially prescribed with present-day vegetation. Initial climate “anomalies” (differences between AGCM results for 6000 y BP and control) were used to drive BIOME1; the simulated vegetation was provided to a further AGCM run, and so on. Results after five iterations were compared to the initial results in order to identify vegetation feedbacks. These were centred on regions showing strong initial responses. The orbitally induced high-latitude summer warming, and the intensification and extension of Northern Hemisphere tropical monsoons, were both amplified by vegetation feedbacks. Vegetation feedbacks were smaller than the initial orbital effects for most regions and seasons, but in West Africa the summer precipitation increase more than doubled in response to changes in vegetation. In the last iteration, global tundra area was reduced by 25% and the southern limit of the Sahara desert was shifted 2.5 °N north (to 18 °N) relative to today. These results were compared with 6000 y BP observational data recording forest-tundra boundary changes in northern Eurasia and savana-desert boundary changes in northern Africa. Although the inclusion of vegetation feedbacks improved the qualitative agreement between the model results and the data, the simulated changes were still insufficient, perhaps due to the lack of ocean-surface feedbacks.

The climate of Europe 6000 years ago

Palaeoclimates across Europe for 6000 y BP were estimated from pollen data using the modern pollen analogue technique constrained with lake-level data. The constraint consists of restricting the set of modern pollen samples considered as analogues of the fossil samples to those locations where the implied change in annual precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P–E) is consistent with the regional change in moisture balance as indicated by lakes. An artificial neural network was used for the spatial interpolation of lake-level changes to the pollen sites, and for mapping palaeoclimate anomalies. The climate variables reconstructed were mean temperature of the coldest month (T c ), growing degree days above 5  °C (GDD), moisture availability expressed as the ratio of actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration (α), and P–E. The constraint improved the spatial coherency of the reconstructed palaeoclimate anomalies, especially for P–E. The reconstructions indicate clear spatial and seasonal patterns of Holocene climate change, which can provide a quantitative benchmark for the evaluation of palaeoclimate model simulations. Winter temperatures (T c ) were 1–3 K greater than present in the far N and NE of Europe, but 2–4 K less than present in the Mediterranean region. Summer warmth (GDD) was greater than present in NW Europe (by 400–800 K day at the highest elevations) and in the Alps, but >400 K day less than present at lower elevations in S Europe. P–E was 50–250 mm less than present in NW Europe and the Alps, but α was 10–15% greater than present in S Europe and P–E was 50–200 mm greater than present in S and E Europe.

Intensified impact of tropical Atlantic SST on the western North Pacific summer climate under a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation

The tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) has been identified as one of regulators on the boreal summer climate over the western North Pacific (WNP), in addition to SSTs in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The major physical process proposed is that the TNA warming induces a pair of cyclonic circulation anomaly over the eastern Pacific and negative precipitation anomalies over the eastern to central tropical Pacific, which in turn lead to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the western to central North Pacific. This study further demonstrates that the modulation of the TNA warming to the WNP summer climate anomaly tends to be intensified under background of the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) by using a water-hosing experiment. The results suggest that the weakened THC induces a decrease in thermocline depth over the TNA region, resulting in the enhanced sensitivity of SST variability to wind anomalies and thus intensification of the interannual variation of TNA SST. Under the weakened THC, the atmospheric responses to the TNA warming are westward shifted, enhancing the anticyclonic circulation and negative precipitation anomaly over the WNP. This study supports the recent finding that the negative phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation after the late 1960s has been favourable for the strengthening of the connection between TNA SST variability and WNP summer climate and has important implications for seasonal prediction and future projection of the WNP summer climate.

Observational constraints on atmospheric and oceanic cross-equatorial heat transports: revisiting the precipitation asymmetry problem in climate models

Satellite based top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation budget observations are combined with mass corrected vertically integrated atmospheric energy divergence and tendency from reanalysis to infer the regional distribution of the TOA, atmospheric and surface energy budget terms over the globe. Hemispheric contrasts in the energy budget terms are used to determine the radiative and combined sensible and latent heat contributions to the cross-equatorial heat transports in the atmosphere (AHT_EQ) and ocean (OHT_EQ). The contrast in net atmospheric radiation implies an AHT_EQ from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) (0.75 PW), while the hemispheric difference in sensible and latent heat implies an AHT_EQ in the opposite direction (0.51 PW), resulting in a net NH to SH AHT_EQ (0.24 PW). At the surface, the hemispheric contrast in the radiative component (0.95 PW) dominates, implying a 0.44 PW SH to NH OHT_EQ. Coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models with excessive net downward surface radiation and surface-to-atmosphere sensible and latent heat transport in the SH relative to the NH exhibit anomalous northward AHT_EQ and overestimate SH tropical precipitation. The hemispheric bias in net surface radiative flux is due to too much longwave surface radiative cooling in the NH tropics in both clear and all-sky conditions and excessive shortwave surface radiation in the SH subtropics and extratropics due to an underestimation in reflection by clouds.

Projected changes in tropical cyclones over Vietnam and the South China Sea using a 25 km regional climate model perturbed physics ensemble

The regional climate modelling system PRECIS, was run at 25 km horizontal resolution for 150 years (1949-2099) using global driving data from a five member perturbed physics ensemble (based on the coupled global climate model HadCM3). Output from these simulations was used to investigate projected changes in tropical cyclones (TCs) over Vietnam and the South China Sea due to global warming (under SRES scenario A1B). Thirty year climatological mean periods were used to look at projected changes in future (2069-2098) TCs compared to a 1961-1990 baseline. Present day results were compared qualitatively with IBTrACS observations and found to be reasonably realistic. Future projections show a 20-44 % decrease in TC frequency, although the spatial patterns of change differ between the ensemble members, and an increase of 27-53 % in the amount of TC associated precipitation. No statistically significant changes in TC intensity were found, however, the occurrence of more intense TCs (defined as those with a maximum 10 m wind speed > 35 m/s) was found to increase by 3-9 %. Projected increases in TC associated precipitation are likely caused by increased evaporation and availability of atmospheric water vapour, due to increased sea surface and atmospheric temperature. The mechanisms behind the projected changes in TC frequency are difficult to link explicitly; changes are most likely due to the combination of increased static stability, increased vertical wind shear and decreased upward motion, which suggest a decrease in the tropical overturning circulation.

Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty which it is important to understand and quantify, especially for projections of near-term regional climate. Here we use large idealised initial condition ensembles of the FAMOUS global climate model with a 1 %/year compound increase in CO2 levels to quantify the range of future temperatures in model-based projections. These simulations explore the role of both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions and are the largest such ensembles to date. Short-term simulated trends in global temperature are diverse, and cooling periods are more likely to be followed by larger warming rates. The spatial pattern of near-term temperature change varies considerably, but the proportion of the surface showing a warming is more consistent. In addition, ensemble spread in inter-annual temperature declines as the climate warms, especially in the North Atlantic. Over Europe, atmospheric initial condition uncertainty can, for certain ocean initial conditions, lead to 20 year trends in winter and summer in which every location can exhibit either strong cooling or rapid warming. However, the details of the distribution are highly sensitive to the ocean initial condition chosen and particularly the state of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. On longer timescales, the warming signal becomes more clear and consistent amongst different initial condition ensembles. An ensemble using a range of different oceanic initial conditions produces a larger spread in temperature trends than ensembles using a single ocean initial condition for all lead times. This highlights the potential benefits from initialising climate predictions from ocean states informed by observations. These results suggest that climate projections need to be performed with many more ensemble members than at present, using a range of ocean initial conditions, if the uncertainty in near-term regional climate is to be adequately quantified.

Effect of surface restoring on subsurface variability in a climate model during 1949-2005

Initializing the ocean for decadal predictability studies is a challenge, as it requires reconstructing the little observed subsurface trajectory of ocean variability. In this study we explore to what extent surface nudging using well-observed sea surface temperature (SST) can reconstruct the deeper ocean variations for the 1949–2005 period. An ensemble made with a nudged version of the IPSLCM5A model and compared to ocean reanalyses and reconstructed datasets. The SST is restored to observations using a physically-based relaxation coefficient, in contrast to earlier studies, which use a much larger value. The assessment is restricted to the regions where the ocean reanalyses agree, i.e. in the upper 500 m of the ocean, although this can be latitude and basin dependent. Significant reconstruction of the subsurface is achieved in specific regions, namely region of subduction in the subtropical Atlantic, below the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific and, in some cases, in the North Atlantic deep convection regions. Beyond the mean correlations, ocean integrals are used to explore the time evolution of the correlation over 20-year windows. Classical fixed depth heat content diagnostics do not exhibit any significant reconstruction between the different existing observation-based references and can therefore not be used to assess global average time-varying correlations in the nudged simulations. Using the physically based average temperature above an isotherm (14 °C) alleviates this issue in the tropics and subtropics and shows significant reconstruction of these quantities in the nudged simulations for several decades. This skill is attributed to the wind stress reconstruction in the tropics, as already demonstrated in a perfect model study using the same model. Thus, we also show here the robustness of this result in an historical and observational context.

ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We analyse the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) to simulate the tropical Pacific mean state and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CMIP5 multi-model ensemble displays an encouraging 30 % reduction of the pervasive cold bias in the western Pacific, but no quantum leap in ENSO performance compared to CMIP3. CMIP3 and CMIP5 can thus be considered as one large ensemble (CMIP3 + CMIP5) for multi-model ENSO analysis. The too large diversity in CMIP3 ENSO amplitude is however reduced by a factor of two in CMIP5 and the ENSO life cycle (location of surface temperature anomalies, seasonal phase locking) is modestly improved. Other fundamental ENSO characteristics such as central Pacific precipitation anomalies however remain poorly represented. The sea surface temperature (SST)-latent heat flux feedback is slightly improved in the CMIP5 ensemble but the wind-SST feedback is still underestimated by 20–50 % and the shortwave-SST feedbacks remain underestimated by a factor of two. The improvement in ENSO amplitudes might therefore result from error compensations. The ability of CMIP models to simulate the SST-shortwave feedback, a major source of erroneous ENSO in CGCMs, is further detailed. In observations, this feedback is strongly nonlinear because the real atmosphere switches from subsident (positive feedback) to convective (negative feedback) regimes under the effect of seasonal and interannual variations. Only one-third of CMIP3 + CMIP5 models reproduce this regime shift, with the other models remaining locked in one of the two regimes. The modelled shortwave feedback nonlinearity increases with ENSO amplitude and the amplitude of this feedback in the spring strongly relates with the models ability to simulate ENSO phase locking. In a final stage, a subset of metrics is proposed in order to synthesize the ability of each CMIP3 and CMIP5 models to simulate ENSO main characteristics and key atmospheric feedbacks.

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.