Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Isolation and characterization of microsatellite loci in Colletotrichum acutatum, the causal agent of postbloom fruit drop on citrus

From a genomic enriched library, we developed 27 primer pairs from microsatellite flanking sequences for Colletotrichum acutatum, associated to postbloom fruit drop disease on citrus. Loci were characterized using 40 monosporic C. acutatum isolates. Nine primer pairs successfully amplified polymorphic microsatellite regions, with 3-6 alleles per locus, and mean heterozygosities ranging 0.093-0.590 across loci. The suitability of these primers was investigated in four Colletotrichum species as well. These microsatellite markers will be useful for genetic analyses and epidemiological studies of C. acutatum.

Crop rotation in center-pivot for phytonematode control: density variation, pathogenicity and crop loss estimation

Crop rotation in center-pivot for phytonematode control: density variation, pathogenicity and crop loss estimation A field study conducted over three consecutive years, on a farm using crop rotation system under center-pivot and infested with the nematodes Pratylenchus brachyurus, P. zeae, Meloidogyne incognita, Paratrichodorus minor, Helicotylenchus dihystera, Mesocriconema ornata and M. onoense, demonstrated that intensive crop systems provide conditions for the maintenance of high densities of polyphagous phytonematodes. Of the crops established on the farm (cotton, maize, soybean and cowpea), cotton and soybean suffered the most severe crop losses, caused respectively by M. incognita and P. brachyurus. Since maize is a good host for both nematodes, but tolerant of M. incognita, its exclusion from cropping system would be favorable to the performance of cotton, soybean and cowpea. Results from experiments carried out in controlled conditions confirmed the pathogenicity of P. brachyurus on cotton. Additional management with genetic resistance was useful in fields infested with M. incognita, although the soybean performance was affected by low resistance of the cultivars used for P. brachyurus. In conclusion, crop rotation must be carefully planned in areas infested with polyphagous nematodes, specifically in the case of occurrence of two or more major pathogenic nematodes.

Host status of citrus rootstocks for the population K5 of Pratylenchus jaehni

Host status of citrus rootstocks for the population K 5 of Pratylenchus jaehni Pratylenchus jaehni has been reported as the main nematode in Brazilian citrus orchards due to the economic losses it causes. Considering the reports of differences and similarities in populations from that species, the host reaction of citrus rootstocks to K 5 population of P. jaehni was evaluated and compared with topotypes of the species. Two experiments were carried out with initial population (Pi) of 180 and 200 specimens per plant. In each experiment, the evaluation was carried out in two periods: at 120 and 245 days after inoculation (DAI) in experiment 1 and at 60 and 240 DAI in experiment 2. The variables obtained were the reproduction factor [RF = final population (Pf)/Pi)] and nematodes per gram of roots (N/g). The nematode density was reduced (RF = 0.00 to 0.02) in trifoliata `Limeira`, sour orange, citrange `Carrizo`, `Cleopatra` tangerine, `Sunki` tangerine, `Volkameriano` lemon and citrumelo `Swingle`; but the nematode density increased (RF = 1.89 to 22.28) in Rangpur lime in both periods of experiment 1 and in the second period of experiment 2. Therefore, the host reaction of citrus rootstocks to K 5 was very similar to that reported to topotypes of P. jaehni in the literature.

Annual and polyetic progression of citrus canker on trees protected with copper sprays

The effects of copper sprays on annual and polyetic progress of citrus canker, caused by Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri, in the presence of the Asian citrus leafminer (Phyllocnistis citrella), were evaluated in a study conducted in a commercial orchard in northwest Parana state, Brazil, where citrus canker is endemic. Nonlinear monomolecular, logistic and Gompertz models were fitted to monthly disease incidence data (proportion of leaves with symptoms) for each treatment for three seasons. The logistic model provided the best estimate of disease progress for all years and treatments evaluated and logistic parameter estimates were used to describe polyetic disease dynamics. Although citrus canker incidence increased during each of the seasons studied, it decreased over the whole study period, more so in copper-treated trees than in water-sprayed controls. Copper treatment reduced disease incidence compared with controls in every year, especially 2004-2005, when incidence was ca. 10-fold higher in controls than in treated plots (estimated asymptote values 0 center dot 82 and 0 center dot 07, respectively). Copper treatment also reduced estimated initial disease incidence and epidemic growth rates every year.

Liberibacters associated with orange jasmine in Brazil: incidence in urban areas and relatedness to citrus liberibacters

Two surveys (2005/2006 and 2009) were conducted in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate the incidence of `Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus` and `Ca. L. americanus`, two liberibacters associated with citrus huanglongbing (HLB) disease and both transmitted by Diaphorina citri, in orange jasmine (Murraya exotica), a widespread ornamental tree in cities and villages. The graft-transmissibility of the two species, and their DNA relatedness to citrus-associated liberibacters, were also investigated. Quantitative PCR was applied to PCR-positive orange jasmine and HLB-positive citrus growing in backyards and orchards to assess their inoculum source potentials. Liberibacters were detected in 91 of 786 sampled orange jasmine plants in 10 of 76 sampled locations. PCR-positive trees exhibited yellow shoots and/or dieback symptoms indistinguishable from those on PCR-negative trees. `Candidatus Liberibacter americanus` was more common in 2005/2006 (96 center dot 6%) and `Ca. L. asiaticus` in 2009 (84 center dot 8%). rplJ nucleotide sequences were identical within all populations of either species. Graft transmission succeeded only in homologous host combinations, including `Ca. L. americanus` (2/10) from/to orange jasmine and `Ca. L. americanus` (5/18) and `Ca. L. asiaticus` (5/9) from/to citrus. Symptoms were mild and developed less rapidly in orange jasmine than in citrus, probably as a result of lower liberibacter multiplication rates. Respective titres of `Ca. L. americanus` and `Ca. L. asiaticus` in orange jasmine averaged 4 center dot 3 and 3 center dot 0 log cells g-1 tissue, compared with 5 center dot 5 and 7 center dot 3 in citrus. The results indicate that orange jasmine does not favour liberibacter multiplication as much as citrus. However, its importance in HLB epidemics should not be underestimated as it is a preferred host of D. citri and is not under any strict tree-eradication programme or measures for insect control.

Probable consequences of the mitigation of citrus canker eradication methodology in Sao Paulo state

Probable consequences of the mitigation of citrus canker eradication methodology in Sao Paulo state Recently the Sao Paulo state government mitigated its citrus canker eradication methodology adopted since 1999. In April 2009 at least 99.8% of commercial sweet orange orchards were free of citrus canker in Sao Paulo state. Consequently the mitigation of the eradication methodology reduced the high level of safety and the competitiveness of the citrus production sector in Sao Paulo state, Brazil. Therefore we suggest the re-adoption of the same eradication methodology of citrus canker adopted in Sao Paulo from 1999 to 2009, or the adoption of a new methodology, effective for citrus canker suppression, because in new sample surveys citrus canker was detected in >0.36% of affected orchards. This incidence threshold was calculated by using the Duncan test (P <= 0.05) to compare the yearly sample surveys conducted in Sao Paulo state to estimate citrus canker incidence between 1999 and 2009. The calculated minimum significant level was 0.28% among sample surveys and the lowest citrus canker incidence in Sao Paulo state was 0.08%, occurring in 2001. Thus, as an alternative, we suggest the adoption of a new eradication methodology for citrus canker suppression when a new sample survey detected >0.36% of affected orchards in Sao Paulo state, Brazil.

Volatile organic compounds produced by Saccharomyces cerevisiae inhibit the in vitro development of Guignardia citricarpa, the causal agent of citrus black spot

Due to the low chemical control effectiveness of citrus black spot, caused by the fungus Guignardia citricarpa at postharvest, and to the search for alternative control methods, this study aimed to evaluate the in vitro effect of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), produced by yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, on G. citricarpa. It was observed that the yeast strains evaluated acted as antagonists by VOC production, whose maximum inhibitory capacity was as high as 87.2%. The presence of fermentable carbon sources in the medium was essential for the bioactive VOC production by the yeast. The analysis of VOCs produced in PDA medium by SPME-GC-MS indicated the presence of high quantities of alcohols as well as esters. An artificial VOC mixture prepared on the basis of the composition of the VOCs mimicked the inhibitory effects of the natural VOCs released by S. cerevisiae. Thus, the VOCs produced by the yeast or the artificial mixtures can be a promising control method for citrus black spot or others postharvest diseases.

Colletotrichum gloeosporioides, a new causal agent of citrus post-bloom fruit drop

Citrus post-bloom fruit drop (caused by Colletotrichum acutatum) frequently occurs in the southwestern region of So Paulo State, Brazil. A survey of Colletotrichum isolates associated with symptoms of post-bloom fruit drop in So Paulo State showed C. gloeosporioides in addition to C. acutatum. The objectives of this study were to confirm the identification of C. gloeosporioides isolated from symptomatic citrus flowers, to test the pathogenicity of C. gloeosporioides isolates, to compare the development of disease caused by C. gloeosporioides and C. acutatum, and to determine the frequency of C. gloeosporioides in a sample of isolates obtained from symptomatic flowers in different regions of So Paulo State. Through the use of species-specific primers by PCR, 17.3% of 139 isolates were C. gloeosporioides, and the remaining 82.7% were C. acutatum. The pathogenicity tests, carried out in 3-year old potted plants of sweet oranges indicated that both species caused typical symptoms of the disease including blossom blight and persistent calyces. Incubation periods (3.5 and 3.9 days, respectively, for C. acutatum and C. gloeosporioides) and fruit sets (6.7 and 8.5%, respectively for C. acutatum and C. gloeosporioides) were similar for both species. The incidences of blossom blight and persistent calyces were higher on plants inoculated with C. acutatum than in those inoculated with C. gloeosporioides. Conidial germination was similar for both species under different temperatures and wetness periods. Under optimal conditions, appressorium formation and melanisation were higher for C. gloeosporioides than for C. acutatum. These results indicated that Colletotrichum gloeosporioides is a new causal agent of post-bloom fruit drop.

Modelling the progress of Asiatic citrus canker on Tahiti lime in relation to temperature and leaf wetness

The combined effect of temperature (15A degrees C, 20A degrees C, 25A degrees C, 30A degrees C, 35A degrees C, 40A degrees C and 42A degrees C) and leaf wetness duration (0, 4, 8 12, 16, 20 and 24 h) on infection and development of Asiatic citrus canker (Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri) on Tahiti lime plant was examined in growth chambers. No disease developed at 42A degrees C and zero hours of leaf wetness. Periods of leaf wetness as short as 4 h were sufficient for citrus canker infection. However, a longer leaf duration wetness (24 h) did not result in much increase in the incidence of citrus canker, but led to twice the number of lesions and four times the disease severity. Temperature was the greatest factor influencing disease development. At optimum temperatures (25-35A degrees C), there was 100% disease incidence. Maximum disease development was observed at 30-35A degrees C, with up to a 12-fold increase in lesion density, a 10-fold increase in lesion size and a 60-fold increase in disease severity.

Yield loss caused by huanglongbing in different sweet orange cultivars in So Paulo, Brazil

Citrus huanglongbing (HLB) reduces an affected orchard`s economic life. This work aimed to characterize yield loss due to HLB for different sweet orange cultivars and determine the relationship between disease severity and yield. Disease severity and yield were assessed on 949 individual trees distributed in 11 different blocks from sweet orange cultivars Hamlin, Westin, Pera and Valencia. In each block, plants showing a range of HLB severity levels and asymptomatic plants were selected. Total yield (weight of harvested fruit), mean weight of asymptomatic and symptomatic fruit, relative yield (symptomatic tree yield/mean yield of asymptomatic trees from the same block) and relative number of fruits (fruit number from symptomatic tree/mean number of fruits from asymptomatic trees from the same block) were determined. The weight of symptomatic fruit was lower than the weight of asymptomatic fruit, but the weights of asymptomatic and symptomatic fruit were not correlated with disease severity, indicating that the effects of HLB were restricted to symptomatic branches. The relationship of the relative yield with HLB severity can be satisfactorily described by a negative exponential model. The rates of yield decrease as a function of disease severity were similar for all assessed cultivars. A relative yield (up to 19%) was observed even for trees where disease severity was 100%. The strong linear relationship between relative number of fruits per tree and the relative yield per tree suggested that the yield reduction was due primarily to early fruit drop or lack of fruit set on affected branches.

Incidence of black spot in citrus fruits from different processing stages in packinghouses and from Sao Paulo`s wholesale market

The purposes of this work were a) to evaluate citrus black spot (CBS) incidence in `Valencia` oranges and `Murcott` tangors aimed at the export market, and in Pera`, `Lima` and `Natal` oranges, and `Murcott` tangors, aimed at the domestic market after different processing stages in packinghouses in 2004/05 and 2005/06; b) to evaluate CBS incidence in Pera` and `Lima` oranges and `Murcott` tangors sold at Ceagesp-SP, the biggest wholesale market in the State of Sao Paulo, in 2006. Citrus fruits were collected at the packinghouse, on their arrival, after pre-washing and de-greening, from the packing table, from the pallet and at Ceagesp. They were stored for 14 to 21 days at 25 degrees C and 85-90% RH. The incidence of CBS was visually evaluated after one day and at the end of the storage period. CBS incidence in fruits aimed at the export market decreased, with values under 2.0% on arrival and no CBS symptoms observed on fruits from the pallet. The average incidence of CBS in `Pera`, `Lima` and `Natal` oranges, and `Murcott` tangors in the packinghouse aimed at the domestic market were 64.1, 39.0, 32.1 and 19.3%, respectively, after one day of storage, then remaining constant in all processing stages. The incidence of CBS in Ceagesp fruits was low in winter months and increased in the spring. The increase in disease incidence during the storage period (21 days) was not significant in collected fruits.

Postharvest diseases in citrus and characterization of the fungal population in Sao Paulo`s wholesale market

The purposes of this workwere to characterize postharvest injuries and to evaluate the physicochemical characteristics of`Nra` and `Lima`oranges and `Murcott` tangor at Ceagesp market, as well as to characterize the environmental mycoflora in retail points at Ceagesp in 2006. Fruits collected at retail points were stored for 14 days at 25 degrees C and 85-90% RH. The incidence of injuries was visually evaluated every three days. The physicochemical characteristics analyzed were titratable acidity and soluble solids amount. The environmental mycoflora was sampled according to the gravimetric method, using Petri dishes containing potato-dextrose-agar medium+pentabiotic opened for two minutes. The average rot incidences in `Pera` and `Lima` oranges and `Murcott` tangor were 12.8, 14.9 and 25.8%, respectively, at the end of the storage period, and green mold was the main postharvest disease. Associations between physicochemical parameters and rot incidence was, in general, not significant. The environmental fungal population varied significantly between the sampling months in retail points with an average of 25.3 cfu/plate. Penicillium and Cladosporium were the most recorded genera of fungi. Positive correlation (r=0.96) was observed between frequency of P digitatum found in the environment of retail points and the green mold in on-sale fruits of `Pera` orange. However, for `Lima` orange and `Murcott` tangor such a correlation was not verified.

Spatial pattern of black spot incidence within citrus trees related to disease severity and pathogen dispersal

Guignardia citricarpa, the causal agent of citrus black spot, forms airborne ascospores on decomposing citrus leaves and water-spread conidia on fruits, leaves and twigs. The spatial pattern of diseased fruit in citrus tree canopies was used to assess the importance of ascospores and conidia in citrus black spot epidemics in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The aggregation of diseased fruit in the citrus tree canopy was quantified by the binomial dispersion index (D) and the binary form of Taylor`s Power Law for 303 trees in six groves. D was significantly greater than 1 in 251 trees. The intercept of the regression line of Taylor`s Power Law was significantly greater than 0 and the slope was not different from 1, implying that diseased fruit was aggregated in the canopy independent of disease incidence. Disease incidence (p) and severity (S) were assessed in 2875 citrus trees. The incidence-severity relationship was described (R-2 = 88.7%) by the model ln(S) = ln(a) + bCLL(p) where CLL = complementary log-log transformation. The high severity at low incidence observed in many cases is also indicative of low distance spread of G. citricarpa spores. For the same level of disease incidence, some trees had most of the diseased fruit with many lesions and high disease severity, whereas other trees had most of the fruit with few lesions and low disease severity. Aggregation of diseased fruit in the trees suggests that splash-dispersed conidia have an important role in increasing the disease in citrus trees in Brazil.

Role of healthy nursery plants in orange yield during eight years of Citrus Variegated Chlorosis epidemics

The production and commercialization of citrus seedlings inspected and produced in protected screen-houses has become mandatory in Sao Paulo State, Brazil since January 2003. This law was intended to avoid the dispersion of Citrus Variegated Chlorosis (CVC), disease caused by Xylella fastidiosa. Our objective was to compare the yield over 8 years of `Natal` sweet orange trees grafted onto Rangpur lime obtained from healthy nursery plants and from plants artificially inoculated with X. fastidiosa. Yield was evaluated in an orchard planted in February 1999 with two treatments: (i) trees from healthy nursery plant, and (ii) trees from plants artificially inoculated with X. fastidiosa. The mean yield was 21% higher in trees from healthy nursery plants, as compared to trees from inoculated nursery plants. This difference represents a gain of approximately 203 boxes of 40.8 kg each, considering a planting density of 550 plants per hectare. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.