Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July-September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: a case study.

We present a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning in the Upper Huai catchment (ca. 30 672 km2). TIGGE ensemble forecasts from 6 meteorological centres with 10-day lead time were extracted and disaggregated to drive the Xinanjiang model to forecast discharges for flood events in July-September 2008. The results demonstrated satisfactory flood forecasting skills with clear signals of floods up to 10 days in advance. The forecasts occasionally show discrepancies both in time and space. Forecasting quality could potentially be improved by using temporal and spatial corrections of the forecasted precipitation.

Extreme rainfall variability in Australia: Patterns, drivers and predictability

Leading patterns of observed monthly extreme rainfall variability in Australia are examined using an Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) method. Extreme rainfall variability is more closely related to mean rainfall variability during austral summer than in winter. The leading EOT patterns of extreme rainfall explain less variance in Australia-wide extreme rainfall than is the case for mean rainfall EOTs. We illustrate that, as with mean rainfall, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has the strongest association with warm-season extreme rainfall variability, while in the cool-season the primary drivers are atmospheric blocking and the subtropical ridge. The Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode also have significant relationships with patterns of variability during austral winter and spring. Leading patterns of summer extreme rainfall variability have predictability several months ahead from Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and as much as a year in advance from Indian Ocean SSTs. Predictability from the Pacific is greater for wetter than average summer months than for months that are drier than average, whereas for the Indian Ocean the relationship has greater linearity. Several cool-season EOTs are associated with mid-latitude synoptic-scale patterns along the south and east coasts. These patterns have common atmospheric signatures denoting moist onshore flow and strong cyclonic anomalies often to the north of a blocking anti-cyclone. Tropical cyclone activity is observed to have significant relationships with some warm season EOTs. This analysis shows that extreme rainfall variability in Australia can be related to remote drivers and local synoptic-scale patterns throughout the year.

Technology acceptance and care self-management: consideration in context of chronic care management

With an aging global population, the number of people living with a chronic illness is expected to increase significantly by 2050. If left unmanaged, chronic care leads to serious health complications, resulting in poor patient quality of life and a costly time bomb for care providers. If effectively managed, patients with chronic care tend to live a richer and more healthy life, resulting in a less costly total care solution. This chapter considers literature from the areas of technology acceptance and care self-management, which aims to alleviate symptoms and/or reason for non-acceptance of care, and thus minimise the risk of long-term complications, which in turn reduces the chance of spiralling health expenditure. By bringing together these areas, the chapter highlights areas where self-management is failing so that changes can be made in care in advance of health deterioration.

Flexible selection of a single treatment incorporating short-term endpoint information in a phase II/III clinical trial

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials in which an experimental treatment is selected at an interim analysis have been the focus of much recent research interest. Many of the methods proposed are based on the group sequential approach. This paper considers designs of this type in which the treatment selection can be based on short-term endpoint information for more patients than have primary endpoint data available. We show that in such a case, the familywise type I error rate may be inflated if previously proposed group sequential methods are used and the treatment selection rule is not specified in advance. A method is proposed to avoid this inflation by considering the treatment selection that maximises the conditional error given the data available at the interim analysis. A simulation study is reported that illustrates the type I error rate inflation and compares the power of the new approach with two other methods: a combination testing approach and a group sequential method that does not use the short-term endpoint data, both of which also strongly control the type I error rate. The new method is also illustrated through application to a study in Alzheimer's disease. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mathematical relationships between scoring parameters in capped tendering

Mathematical relationships between Scoring Parameters can be used in Economic Scoring Formulas (ESF) in tendering to distribute the score among bidders in the economic part of a proposal. Each contracting authority must set an ESF when publishing tender specifications and the strategy of each bidder will differ depending on the ESF selected and the weight of the overall proposal scoring. This paper introduces the various mathematical relationships and density distributions that describe and inter-relate not only the main Scoring Parameters but the main Forecasting Parameters in any capped tender (those whose price is upper-limited). Forecasting Parameters, as variables that can be known in advance before the deadline of a tender is reached, together with Scoring Parameters constitute the basis of a future Bid Tender Forecasting Model.

Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions

Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders' bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder's probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

Interim analyses and sequential designs in phase III studies

Recruitment of patients to a clinical trial usually occurs over a period of time, resulting in the steady accumulation of data throughout the trial's duration. Yet, according to traditional statistical methods, the sample size of the trial should be determined in advance, and data collected on all subjects before analysis proceeds. For ethical and economic reasons, the technique of sequential testing has been developed to enable the examination of data at a series of interim analyses. The aim is to stop recruitment to the study as soon as there is sufficient evidence to reach a firm conclusion. In this paper we present the advantages and disadvantages of conducting interim analyses in phase III clinical trials, together with the key steps to enable the successful implementation of sequential methods in this setting. Examples are given of completed trials, which have been carried out sequentially, and references to relevant literature and software are provided.

Multiprobabilistic prediction in early medical diagnoses

This paper describes the methodology of providing multiprobability predictions for proteomic mass spectrometry data. The methodology is based on a newly developed machine learning framework called Venn machines. Is allows to output a valid probability interval. The methodology is designed for mass spectrometry data. For demonstrative purposes, we applied this methodology to MALDI-TOF data sets in order to predict the diagnosis of heart disease and early diagnoses of ovarian cancer and breast cancer. The experiments showed that probability intervals are narrow, that is, the output of the multiprobability predictor is similar to a single probability distribution. In addition, probability intervals produced for heart disease and ovarian cancer data were more accurate than the output of corresponding probability predictor. When Venn machines were forced to make point predictions, the accuracy of such predictions is for the most data better than the accuracy of the underlying algorithm that outputs single probability distribution of a label. Application of this methodology to MALDI-TOF data sets empirically demonstrates the validity. The accuracy of the proposed method on ovarian cancer data rises from 66.7 % 11 months in advance of the moment of diagnosis to up to 90.2 % at the moment of diagnosis. The same approach has been applied to heart disease data without time dependency, although the achieved accuracy was not as high (up to 69.9 %). The methodology allowed us to confirm mass spectrometry peaks previously identified as carrying statistically significant information for discrimination between controls and cases.

Is the unfolding of the group discussion off-pattern? Improving coordination support in educational forums using mobile devices

A forum is a valuable tool to foster reflection in an in-depth discussion; however, it forces the course mediator to continually pay close attention in order to coordinate learners` activities. Moreover, monitoring a forum is time consuming given that it is impossible to know in advance when new messages are going to be posted. Additionally, a forum may be inactive for a long period and suddenly receive a burst of messages forcing forum mediators to frequently log on in order to know how the discussion is unfolding to intervene whenever it is necessary. Mediators also need to deal with a large amount of messages to identify off-pattern situations. This work presents a piece of action research that investigates how to improve coordination support in a forum using mobile devices for mitigating mediator`s difficulties in following the status of a forum. Based on summarized information extracted from message meta-data, mediators consult visual information summaries on PDAs and receive textual notifications in their mobile phone. This investigation revealed that mediators used the mobile-based coordination support to keep informed on what is taking place within the forum without the need to log on their desktop computer. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real-Time Flood Forecasting Systems In Flanders

As a highly urbanized and flood prone region, Flanders has experienced multiple floods causing significant damage in the past. In response to the floods of 1998 and 2002 the Flemish Environment Agency, responsible for managing 1 400 km of unnavigable rivers, started setting up a real time flood forecasting system in 2003. Currently the system covers almost 2 000 km of unnavigable rivers, for which flood forecasts are accessible online (www.waterinfo.be). The forecasting system comprises more than 1 000 hydrologic and 50 hydrodynamic models which are supplied with radar rainfall, rainfall forecasts and on-site observations. Forecasts for the next 2 days are generated hourly, while 10 day forecasts are generated twice a day. Additionally, twice daily simulations based on percentile rainfall forecasts (from EPS predictions) result in uncertainty bands for the latter. Subsequent flood forecasts use the most recent rainfall predictions and observed parameters at any time while uncertainty on the longer-term is taken into account. The flood forecasting system produces high resolution dynamic flood maps and graphs at about 200 river gauges and more than 3 000 forecast points. A customized emergency response system generates phone calls and text messages to a team of hydrologists initiating a pro-active response to prevent upcoming flood damage. The flood forecasting system of the Flemish Environment Agency is constantly evolving and has proven to be an indispensable tool in flood crisis management. This was clearly the case during the November 2010 floods, when the agency issued a press release 2 days in advance allowing water managers, emergency services and civilians to take measures.

A theoretical analysis on the intramolecular proton transfer of alpha-alanine in an aqueous medium

Intramolecular proton transfer from oxygen to nitrogen atoms in the alpha-alanine amino acid has been studied by ab initio methods at the HF/6-31G*, HF/6-31 ++ G** and MP2/6-31 ++ G** levels of calculation including the solvent effects by means of self-consistent reaction field theory. An analysis of the results based on the natural bond orbital charges shows that the transition structure presents an imbalance in the sense that the charge shift lags behind the proton transfer and that the bond formation is always in advance with respect to the bond cleavage. All calculation levels show that the barrier height associated with the conformational change on alpha-alanine is larger than the proton transfer process. (C) 1998 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Head, eye and arm coordination in table tennis

The aim of this study was to determine the role of head, eye and arm movements during the execution of a table tennis forehand stroke. Three-dimensional kinematic analysis of line-of-gaze, arm and ball was used to describe visual and motor behaviour. Skilled and less skilled participants returned the ball to cued right or left target areas under three levels of temporal constraint: pre-, early- and late-cue conditions. In the pre- and early-cue conditions, both high and low skill participants tracked the ball early in flight and kept gaze stable on a location in advance of the ball before ball-bat contact. Skilled participants demonstrated an earlier onset of ball tracking and recorded higher performance accuracy than less skilled counterparts. The manipulation of cue condition showed the limits of adaptation to maintain accuracy on the target. Participants were able to accommodate the constraints imposed by the early-cue condition by using a shorter quiet eye duration, earlier quiet eye offset and reduced arm velocity at contact. In the late-cue condition, modifications to gaze, head and arm movements were not sufficient to preserve accuracy. The findings highlight the functional coupling between perception and action during time-constrained, goal-directed actions.

Mango flower induction in the brazilian northeast Semi-arid with gibberellin synthesis inhibitors

Mangoes in the Brazilian semi-arid stands out in the national scenario due to high yields and fruit quality, and also to the possibility of all-year production taking advantage of the climatic conditions as well as management technique (irrigation, pruning and growth regulators application) for plant growth and blossom control. Paclobutrazol soil drench applied is normally used for production management of mangoes. This research deals with the evaluation of the effect of foliar applied growth regulators to mango, cultivar 'Kent', as regard to their efficiency for blossom management, in order to allow off season mango production. Three growth regulators (prohexadione-Ca, trinexapac-ethyl and chlormequat chloride) were foliar applied, at two dosages and compared to paclobutrazol applied as soil-drench. In order to compare the effects of the treatment, data were recorded related to panicle emission (percentage and length), period of time until blossom and production, yield (number and plant weight) and post-harvest quality of the fruit (total soluble solids, titratable acidity, pH, firmness, flesh and skin color and appearance). The results showed that prohexadione-Ca and chlormequat chloride induced a 15-day early harvest, while paclobutrazol, alone or combined with prohexadione-Ca, allow to harvest 25 days in advance, when compared to trinexapac-ethyl and control trees. Growth regulators foliar applied and paclobutrazol applied as soil-drench delayed mangoes fruit ripening in post-harvest.

Dynamic Lightpath Scheduling in Next-Generation WDM Optical Networks

Lightpath scheduling is an important capability in next-generation wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) optical networks to reserve resources in advance for a specified time period while provisioning end-to-end lightpaths. In this study, we propose an approach to support dynamic lightpath scheduling in such networks. To minimize blocking probability in a network that accommodates dynamic scheduled lightpath demands (DSLDs), resource allocation should be optimized in a dynamic manner. However, for the network users who desire deterministic services, resources must be reserved in advance and guaranteed for future use. These two objectives may be mutually incompatible. Therefore, we propose a two-phase dynamic lightpath scheduling approach to tackle this issue. The first phase is the deterministic lightpath scheduling phase. When a lightpath request arrives, the network control plane schedules a path with guaranteed resources so that the user can get a quick response with the deterministic lightpath schedule. The second phase is the lightpath re-optimization phase, in which the network control plane re-provisions some already scheduled lightpaths. Experimental results show that our proposed two-phase dynamic lightpath scheduling approach can greatly reduce WDM network blocking.

A Two-phase Approach for Dynamic Lightpath Scheduling in WDM Optical Networks

Lightpath scheduling is an important capability in next-generation wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) optical networks to reserve resources in advance for a specified time period while provisioning end-to-end lightpaths. In a dynamic environment, the end user requests for dynamic scheduled lightpath demands (D-SLDs) need to be serviced without the knowledge of future requests. Even though the starting time of the request may be hours or days from the current time, the end-user however expects a quick response as to whether the request could be satisfied. We propose a two-phase approach to dynamically schedule and provision D-SLDs. In the first phase, termed the deterministic lightpath scheduling phase, upon arrival of a lightpath request, the network control plane schedules a path with guaranteed resources so that the user can get a quick response with a deterministic lightpath schedule. In the second phase, termed the lightpath re-optimization phase, we re-provision some already scheduled lightpaths to re-optimize for improving network performance. We study two reoptimization scenarios to reallocate network resources while maintaining the existing lightpath schedules. Experimental results show that our proposed two-phase dynamic lightpath scheduling approach can greatly reduce network blocking.