Remotely-sensed changes in the primary productivity of migratory caribou calving grounds and summer pasture: the mixed influences of climate change and caribou herbivory

Nous avons utilisé la télédétection pour examiner comment l’abondance du caribou migrateur pouvait influencer la quantité de ressources alimentaires, et comment ces changements pouvaient affecter la dynamique de population et les patrons d’utilisation de l’espace des caribous. Nous avons évalué les relations entre le caribou et ses ressources alimentaires pour l’aire de mise bas et l’aire d’estivage du troupeau Rivière-George (TRG) du nord du Québec et du Labrador (Canada) entre 1991 et 2011. Nous avons modélisé les relations entre la productivité primaire et des variables climatiques, nous permettant d’isoler les effets d’autres facteurs, comme la pression de broutement des caribous. Nous avons trouvé une relation négative entre la densité de caribous et la productivité primaire à grande échelle, suggérant que la pression de broutement par les caribous pouvait réduire l’abondance des ressources alimentaires et contribuer à la dégradation de l’habitat. Une forte tendance au réchauffement durant la période d’étude, couplée avec un déclin de la taille de population du TRG, a cependant entrainé une productivité primaire plus élevée. Cette hausse de la productivité primaire pourrait représenter un rétablissement de la végétation suite à la réduction de la pression de broutement et/ou un effet du réchauffement climatique.

Nuclear modification factors of phi mesons in d plus Au, Cu plus Cu, and Au plus Au collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV

The PHENIX experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider has performed systematic measurements of phi meson production in the K(+)K(-) decay channel at midrapidity in p + p, d + Au, Cu + Cu, and Au + Au collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV. Results are presented on the phi invariant yield and the nuclear modification factor R(AA) for Au + Au and Cu + Cu, and R(dA) for d + Au collisions, studied as a function of transverse momentum (1 < p(T) < 7 GeV/c) and centrality. In central and midcentral Au + Au collisions, the R(AA) of phi exhibits a suppression relative to expectations from binary scaled p + p results. The amount of suppression is smaller than that of the pi(0) and the. in the intermediate p(T) range (2-5 GeV/c), whereas, at higher p(T), the phi, pi(0), and. show similar suppression. The baryon (proton and antiproton) excess observed in central Au + Au collisions at intermediate p(T) is not observed for the phi meson despite the similar masses of the proton and the phi. This suggests that the excess is linked to the number of valence quarks in the hadron rather than its mass. The difference gradually disappears with decreasing centrality, and, for peripheral collisions, the R(AA) values for both particle species are consistent with binary scaling. Cu + Cu collisions show the same yield and suppression as Au + Au collisions for the same number of N(part). The R(dA) of phi shows no evidence for cold nuclear effects within uncertainties.

Enhanced Production of Direct Photons in Au plus Au Collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV and Implications for the Initial Temperature

The production of e(+)e(-) pairs for m(e+e-) < 0.3 GeV/c(2) and 1< p(T) < 5 GeV/c is measured in p + p and Au + Au collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV. An enhanced yield above hadronic sources is observed. Treating the excess as photon internal conversions, the invariant yield of direct photons is deduced. In central Au + Au collisions, the excess of the direct photon yield over p + p is exponential in transverse momentum, with an inverse slope T = 221 +/- 19(stat) +/- 19(syst) MeV. Hydrodynamical models with initial temperatures ranging from T(init) similar to 300-600 MeV at times of similar to 0.6-0.15 fm/c after the collision are in qualitative agreement with the data. Lattice QCD predicts a phase transition to quark gluon plasma at similar to 170 MeV.

Detailed measurement of the e(+)e(-) pair continuum in p plus p and Au plus Au collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV and implications for direct photon production

PHENIX has measured the e(+)e(-) pair continuum in root s(NN) = 200 GeV Au+Au and p+p collisions over a wide range of mass and transverse momenta. The e(+)e(-) yield is compared to the expectations from hadronic sources, based on PHENIX measurements. In the intermediate-mass region, between the masses of the phi and the J/psi meson, the yield is consistent with expectations from correlated c (c) over bar production, although other mechanisms are not ruled out. In the low-mass region, below the phi, the p+p inclusive mass spectrum is well described by known contributions from light meson decays. In contrast, the Au+Au minimum bias inclusive mass spectrum in this region shows an enhancement by a factor of 4.7 +/- 0.4(stat) +/- 1.5(syst) +/- 0.9(model). At low mass (m(ee) < 0.3 GeV/c(2)) and high p(T) (1 < p(T) < 5 GeV/c) an enhanced e(+)e(-) pair yield is observed that is consistent with production of virtual direct photons. This excess is used to infer the yield of real direct photons. In central Au+Au collisions, the excess of the direct photon yield over the p+p is exponential in p(T), with inverse slope T = 221 +/- 19(stat) +/- 19(syst) MeV. Hydrodynamical models with initial temperatures ranging from T(init) similar or equal to 300-600 MeV at times of 0.6-0.15 fm/c after the collision are in qualitative agreement with the direct photon data in Au+Au. For low p(T) < 1 GeV/c the low-mass region shows a further significant enhancement that increases with centrality and has an inverse slope of T similar or equal to 100 MeV. Theoretical models underpredict the low-mass, low-p(T) enhancement.

High-p(T) pi(0) production with respect to the reaction plane in Au plus Au collisions at s(NN)=200 GeV

Measurements of the azimuthal anisotropy of high-p(T) neutral pion (pi(0)) production in Au+Au collisions at s(NN)=200 GeV by the PHENIX experiment are presented. The data included in this article were collected during the 2004 Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider running period and represent approximately an order of magnitude increase in the number of analyzed events relative to previously published results. Azimuthal angle distributions of pi(0) mesons detected in the PHENIX electromagnetic calorimeters are measured relative to the reaction plane determined event-by-event using the forward and backward beam-beam counters. Amplitudes of the second Fourier component (v(2)) of the angular distributions are presented as a function of pi(0) transverse momentum (p(T)) for different bins in collision centrality. Measured reaction plane dependent pi(0) yields are used to determine the azimuthal dependence of the pi(0) suppression as a function of p(T), R(AA)(Delta phi,p(T)). A jet-quenching motivated geometric analysis is presented that attempts to simultaneously describe the centrality dependence and reaction plane angle dependence of the pi(0) suppression in terms of the path lengths of hypothetical parent partons in the medium. This set of results allows for a detailed examination of the influence of geometry in the collision region and of the interplay between collective flow and jet-quenching effects along the azimuthal axis.

Charged Kaon Interferometric Probes of Space-Time Evolution in Au plus Au Collisions at s(NN)=200 GeV

Bose-Einstein correlations of charged kaons are used to probe Au+Au collisions at s(NN)=200 GeV and are compared to charged pion probes, which have a larger hadronic scattering cross section. Three-dimensional Gaussian source radii are extracted, along with a one-dimensional kaon emission source function. The centrality dependences of the three Gaussian radii are well described by a single linear function of N(part)(1/3) with a zero intercept. Imaging analysis shows a deviation from a Gaussian tail at r greater than or similar to 10 fm, although the bulk emission at lower radius is well described by a Gaussian. The presence of a non-Gaussian tail in the kaon source reaffirms that the particle emission region in a heavy-ion collision is extended, and that similar measurements with pions are not solely due to the decay of long-lived resonances.

Photon-hadron jet correlations in p plus p and Au plus Au collisions at s(NN)=200 GeV

We report the observation at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider of suppression of back-to-back correlations in the direct photon+jet channel in Au+Au relative to p+p collisions. Two-particle correlations of direct photon triggers with associated hadrons are obtained by statistical subtraction of the decay photon-hadron (gamma-h) background. The initial momentum of the away-side parton is tightly constrained, because the parton-photon pair exactly balance in momentum at leading order in perturbative quantum chromodynamics, making such correlations a powerful probe of the in-medium parton energy loss. The away-side nuclear suppression factor, I(AA), in central Au+Au collisions, is 0.32 +/- 0.12(stat)+/- 0.09(syst) for hadrons of 3 < p(T)(h)< 5 in coincidence with photons of 5 < p(T)(gamma)< 15 GeV/c. The suppression is comparable to that observed for high-p(T) single hadrons and dihadrons. The direct photon associated yields in p+p collisions scale approximately with the momentum balance, z(T)equivalent to p(T)(h)/p(T)(gamma), as expected for a measurement of the away-side parton fragmentation function. We compare to Au+Au collisions for which the momentum balance dependence of the nuclear modification should be sensitive to the path-length dependence of parton energy loss.

Systematic studies of elliptic flow measurements in Au plus Au collisions at s(NN)=200 GeV

We present inclusive charged hadron elliptic flow (v(2)) measured over the pseudorapidity range vertical bar eta vertical bar < 0.35 in Au+Au collisions at s(NN)=200 GeV. Results for v(2) are presented over a broad range of transverse momentum (p(T)=0.2-8.0 GeV/c) and centrality (0-60%). To study nonflow effects that are correlations other than collective flow, as well as the fluctuations of v(2), we compare two different analysis methods: (1) the event-plane method from two independent subdetectors at forward (vertical bar eta vertical bar=3.1-3.9) and beam (vertical bar eta vertical bar>6.5) pseudorapidities and (2) the two-particle cumulant method extracted using correlations between particles detected at midrapidity. The two event-plane results are consistent within systematic uncertainties over the measured p(T) and in centrality 0-40%. There is at most a 20% difference in the v(2) between the two event-plane methods in peripheral (40-60%) collisions. The comparisons between the two-particle cumulant results and the standard event-plane measurements are discussed.

Suppression Pattern of Neutral Pions at High Transverse Momentum in Au plus Au Collisions at root S(NN)=200 GeV and Constraints on Medium Transport Coefficients

For Au + Au collisions at 200 GeV, we measure neutral pion production with good statistics for transverse momentum, p(T), up to 20 GeV/c. A fivefold suppression is found, which is essentially constant for 5 < p(T) < 20 GeV/c. Experimental uncertainties are small enough to constrain any model-dependent parametrization for the transport coefficient of the medium, e. g., <(q) over cap > in the parton quenching model. The spectral shape is similar for all collision classes, and the suppression does not saturate in Au + Au collisions.

Charged hadron multiplicity fluctuations in Au+Au and Cu+Cu collisions from root S(NN) = 22.5 to 200 GeV

A comprehensive survey of event-by-event fluctuations of charged hadron multiplicity in relativistic heavy ions is presented. The survey covers Au+Au collisions at s(NN)=62.4 and 200 GeV, and Cu+Cu collisions at s(NN)=22.5,62.4, and 200 GeV. Fluctuations are measured as a function of collision centrality, transverse momentum range, and charge sign. After correcting for nondynamical fluctuations due to fluctuations in the collision geometry within a centrality bin, the remaining dynamical fluctuations expressed as the variance normalized by the mean tend to decrease with increasing centrality. The dynamical fluctuations are consistent with or below the expectation from a superposition of participant nucleon-nucleon collisions based upon p+p data, indicating that this dataset does not exhibit evidence of critical behavior in terms of the compressibility of the system. A comparison of the data with a model where hadrons are independently emitted from a number of hadron clusters suggests that the mean number of hadrons per cluster is small in heavy ion collisions.

Particle-species dependent modification of jet-induced correlations in Au plus Au collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV

Measurements in Au + Au collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV of jet correlations for a trigger hadron at intermediate transverse momentum (p(T,trig)) with associated mesons or baryons at lower p(T,assoc) indicate strong modification of the away-side jet. The ratio of jet-associated baryons to mesons increases with centrality and p(T,assoc). For the most central collisions, the ratio is similar to that for inclusive measurements. This trend is incompatible with in-vacuum fragmentation but could be due to jetlike contributions from correlated soft partons, which recombine upon hadronization.

Dihadron azimuthal correlations in Au+Au collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV

Azimuthal angle (Delta phi) correlations are presented for a broad range of transverse momentum (0.4 < p(T) < 10 GeV/c) and centrality (0-92%) selections for charged hadrons from dijets in Au+Au collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV. With increasing p(T), the away-side Delta phi distribution evolves from a broad and relatively flat shape to a concave shape, then to a convex shape. Comparisons with p + p data suggest that the away-side distribution can be divided into a partially suppressed ""head"" region centered at Delta phi similar to pi, and an enhanced ""shoulder"" region centered at Delta phi similar to pi +/- 1.1. The p(T) spectrum for the associated hadrons in the head region softens toward central collisions. The spectral slope for the shoulder region is independent of centrality and trigger p(T). The properties of the near-side distributions are also modified relative to those in p + p collisions, reflected by the broadening of the jet shape in Delta phi and Delta eta, and an enhancement of the per-trigger yield. However, these modifications seem to be limited to p(T)less than or similar to 4 GeV/c, above which both the hadron pair shape and per-trigger yield become similar to p + p collisions. These observations suggest that both the away- and near-side distributions contain a jet fragmentation component which dominates for p(T) greater than or similar to 5 GeV/c and a medium-induced component which is important for p(T) less than or similar to 4 GeV/c. We also quantify the role of jets at intermediate and low p(T) through the yield of jet-induced pairs in comparison with binary scaled p + p pair yield. The yield of jet-induced pairs is suppressed at high pair proxy energy (sum of the p(T) magnitudes of the two hadrons) and is enhanced at low pair proxy energy. The former is consistent with jet quenching; the latter is consistent with the enhancement of soft hadron pairs due to transport of lost energy to lower p(T).

Quantitative constraints on the transport properties of hot partonic matter from semi-inclusive single high transverse momentum pion suppression in Au plus Au collisions at root S(NN)=200 GeV

The PHENIX experiment has measured the suppression of semi-inclusive single high-transverse-momentum pi(0)'s in Au+Au collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV. The present understanding of this suppression is in terms of energy loss of the parent (fragmenting) parton in a dense color-charge medium. We have performed a quantitative comparison between various parton energy-loss models and our experimental data. The statistical point-to-point uncorrelated as well as correlated systematic uncertainties are taken into account in the comparison. We detail this methodology and the resulting constraint on the model parameters, such as the initial color-charge density dN(g)/dy, the medium transport coefficient <(q) over cap >, or the initial energy-loss parameter epsilon(0). We find that high-transverse-momentum pi(0) suppression in Au+Au collisions has sufficient precision to constrain these model-dependent parameters at the +/- 20-25% (one standard deviation) level. These constraints include only the experimental uncertainties, and further studies are needed to compute the corresponding theoretical uncertainties.

Transverse momentum and centrality dependence of dihadron correlations in Au plus Au collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV: Jet quenching and the response of partonic matter

Azimuthal angle (Delta phi) correlations are presented for charged hadrons from dijets for 0.4 < p(T)< 10 GeV/c in Au+Au collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV. With increasing p(T), the away-side distribution evolves from a broad and relatively flat shape to a concave shape, then to a convex shape. Comparisons to p+p data suggest that the away-side can be divided into a partially suppressed ""head"" region centered at Delta phi similar to pi and an enhanced ""shoulder"" region centered at Delta phi similar to pi +/- 1.1. The p(T) spectrum for the head region softens toward central collisions, consistent with the onset of jet quenching. The spectral slope for the shoulder region is independent of centrality and trigger p(T), which offers constraints on energy transport mechanisms and suggests that it contains the medium response to energetic jets.

Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.