An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Trinidad And Tobago

The economic impact of climate change on root crop, fisheries and vegetable production for Trinidad and Tobago under the A2 and B2 scenarios were modeled, relative to a baseline ―no climate change‖ case, where the mean temperature and rainfall for a base period of 1980 – 2000 was assumed for the years up to 2050. Production functions were used, using ARMA specifications to correct for serial autocorrelation. For the A2 scenarios, rainfall is expected to fall by approximately 10% relative to the baseline case in the 2020s, but is expected to rise thereafter, until by the 2040s rainfall rises slightly above the mean for the baseline case. For the B2 scenario, rainfall rose slightly above the mean for the baseline case in the current decade, but falls steadily thereafter to approximately 15% by the 2040s. Over the same period, temperature is expected to increase by 1.34C and 1.37C under A2 and B2 respectively. It is expected that any further increase in rainfall should have a deleterious effect on root crop production as a whole, since the above mentioned crops represent the majority of the root crops included in the study. Further expected increases in temperature will result in the ambient temperature being very close to the optimal end of the range for most of these crops. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative losses (2008$) for root crops is expected to be approximately 248.8 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 239.4 million USD under the B2 scenario. Relative to the 2005 catch for fish, there will be a decrease in catch potential of 10 - 20% by 2050 relative to 2005 catch potentials, other things remaining constant. By 2050 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, losses in real terms were estimated to be 160.2 million USD and 80.1 million USD respectively, at a 1% discount rate. For vegetables, the mean rainfall exceeds the optimal rainfall range for sweet peppers, hot peppers and melongene. However, while the optimal rainfall level for tomatoes is 3000mm/yr, other vegetables such as sweet peppers, hot peppers and ochroes have very low rainfall requirements (as low as 300 mm/yr). Therefore it is expected that any further decrease in rainfall should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production. It is expected that any further increase in temperature should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production, though model results indicated that as a group, an increase in temperature should have a positive impact on vegetable production. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative gains (2008$) for vegetables is expected to be approximately 54.9 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 49.1 million USD under the B2 scenario, given a 1% discount rate. For root crops, fisheries and vegetables combined, the cumulative loss under A2 is calculated as approximately 352.8 million USD and approximately 270.8 million USD under B2 by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively by 2050. Sea Level Rise (SLR) by 2050 is estimated to be 0.255 m under A2 and 0.215 m under B2. GIS estimation indicated that for a 0.255 m sea level rise, combined with a 0.5 m high tide, there would be no permanent inundation of agricultural land in Trinidad. The total inundation area is 1.18 km2. This occurs only in the Caroni Watershed, on the western coast of Trinidad, and the areas are outside the Caroni Swamp. Even with an additional rise of 0.5 m to simulate a high rainfall event, the estimated inundated area is 4.67 km2, but with no permanent inundation, though likely to be subject to flooding. Based on eleven (11) evaluation criteria, the top potential adaptation options were identified: 1. Use of water saving irrigation systems and water management systems e.g. drip irrigation; 2. Mainstream climate change issues into agricultural management; 3. Repair/maintain existing dams; 4. Alter crop calendar for short-term crops; 5. Adopt improved technologies for soil conservation; 6. Establish systems of food storage; 7. Promote water conservation – install on-farm water harvesting off roof tops; 8. Design and implement holistic water management plans for all competing uses; 9. Build on- farm water storage (ponds and tanks); 10. Agricultural drainage; and 11. Installation of greenhouses. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the Benefit-Cost Ratio are: (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Water Harvesting. However, the options with the highest net benefits are, (in order of priority): (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Use of drip irrigation. Based on the area burnt in Trinidad and Tobago between 2005 and 2009, the average annual loss due to fires is 1717.3 ha. At US$17.41 per carbon credit, this implies that for the total land lost to forest fires on average each year, the opportunity cost of carbon credit revenue is 74.3 million USD. If a teak reforestation programme is undertaken in Trinidad and Tobago, the net benefit of reforestation under a carbon credit programme would be 69 million USD cumulatively to 2050.

Prediction of the combustion process in fluidized bed based on physical-chemical properties of biomass particles and their hydrodynamic behaviors

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

El cooperativismo y la financiación agrícola en Baja California, México (1930-1950) : Una aproximación inicial

Para la teoría neoclásica convencional el funcionamiento de los mercados de crédito soporta dos dificultades básicas: la información imperfecta o asimétrica y la selección adversa del prestatario aunada al riesgo del no pago. En el otro extremo, más heterodoxo, el colectivismo, el capital social y la formación de redes informales y sociedades de crédito suelen reducir los costes de transacción ligados al problema de la financiación. Este tipo de organización facilita el desenvolvimiento del cooperativismo en la economía. En México, después de la Revolución y la conformación de un régimen político autoritario y vertical, el cooperativismo se constituyó en uno de los referentes de la organización campesina para conseguir crédito de la banca pública y privada. En el noroeste del país y la península de Baja California, la existencia de cooperativas pesqueras, ganaderas, agrícolas y de transporte significó un despunte de la actividad económica y uno de los canales del desarrollo de la región. El propósito del artículo es perfilar qué tipo de cooperativismo se articuló en el Distrito Norte de la península de Baja California y qué tipo de relación guardó con el movimiento cooperativista nacional entre 1930 y 1950

El cooperativismo y la financiación agrícola en Baja California, México (1930-1950) : Una aproximación inicial

Para la teoría neoclásica convencional el funcionamiento de los mercados de crédito soporta dos dificultades básicas: la información imperfecta o asimétrica y la selección adversa del prestatario aunada al riesgo del no pago. En el otro extremo, más heterodoxo, el colectivismo, el capital social y la formación de redes informales y sociedades de crédito suelen reducir los costes de transacción ligados al problema de la financiación. Este tipo de organización facilita el desenvolvimiento del cooperativismo en la economía. En México, después de la Revolución y la conformación de un régimen político autoritario y vertical, el cooperativismo se constituyó en uno de los referentes de la organización campesina para conseguir crédito de la banca pública y privada. En el noroeste del país y la península de Baja California, la existencia de cooperativas pesqueras, ganaderas, agrícolas y de transporte significó un despunte de la actividad económica y uno de los canales del desarrollo de la región. El propósito del artículo es perfilar qué tipo de cooperativismo se articuló en el Distrito Norte de la península de Baja California y qué tipo de relación guardó con el movimiento cooperativista nacional entre 1930 y 1950

El cooperativismo y la financiación agrícola en Baja California, México (1930-1950) : Una aproximación inicial

Para la teoría neoclásica convencional el funcionamiento de los mercados de crédito soporta dos dificultades básicas: la información imperfecta o asimétrica y la selección adversa del prestatario aunada al riesgo del no pago. En el otro extremo, más heterodoxo, el colectivismo, el capital social y la formación de redes informales y sociedades de crédito suelen reducir los costes de transacción ligados al problema de la financiación. Este tipo de organización facilita el desenvolvimiento del cooperativismo en la economía. En México, después de la Revolución y la conformación de un régimen político autoritario y vertical, el cooperativismo se constituyó en uno de los referentes de la organización campesina para conseguir crédito de la banca pública y privada. En el noroeste del país y la península de Baja California, la existencia de cooperativas pesqueras, ganaderas, agrícolas y de transporte significó un despunte de la actividad económica y uno de los canales del desarrollo de la región. El propósito del artículo es perfilar qué tipo de cooperativismo se articuló en el Distrito Norte de la península de Baja California y qué tipo de relación guardó con el movimiento cooperativista nacional entre 1930 y 1950

Framing Banking Union in the Euro Area: Some empirical evidence. CEPS Working Document No. 389, 3 February 2014

Evidence shows that financial integration in the euro area is retrenching at a quicker pace than outside the union. Home bias persists: Governments compete on funding costs by supporting ‘their’ banks with massive state aids, which distorts the playing field and feeds the risk-aversion loop. This situation intensifies friction in credit markets, thus hampering the transmission of monetary policies and, potentially, economic growth. This paper discusses the theoretical foundations of a banking union in a common currency area and the legal and economic aspects of EU responses. As a result, two remedies are proposed to deal with moral hazard in a common currency area: a common (unlimited) financial backstop to a privately funded recapitalisation/resolution fund and a blanket prohibition on state aids.

Monetary policy and the over-investment cycle: China as an extreme case. CEPS Commentary, 27 August 2015

Against the background of the severe turbulence that is hitting global stock markets, Daniel Gros examines the looming slowdown in the Chinese economy in this CEPS Commentary, which he attributes to an underlying ‘real’ domestic investment/savings imbalance. Given the magnitude of this imbalance, Gros thinks it is unlikely to be solved by monetary policy and that the best that can be hoped for is that the central banks will manage to ‘paper over’ some of the unavoidable symptoms in credit markets.

What drives household consumption in the EU-28? ECRI Commentary No. 19, 4 December 2015

Given that final consumption of households has contributed on average to broadly 60% of EU-28 GDP since 2001, an assessment of the drivers behind its dynamics is quite timely in a context of gradual economic recovery. The empirical analyses presented in this ECRI Commentary, covering 19 of the EU-28 economies, suggest that disposable income of households, consumer credit markets and the developments in housing markets have had a significantly positive impact on the growth of household final consumption since 2001. On the other hand, demographic trends do not seem to have played any significant role.

Essays on Personal Bankruptcy Law and Small Business Financing

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Does lending behaviour of banks in emerging economies vary by ownership? Evidence from the Indian banking sector

While much has been discussed about the relationship between ownership and financial performance of banks in emerging markets, literature about cross-ownership differences in credit market behaviour of banks in emerging economies is sparse. Using a portfolio choice model and bank-level data from India for 9 years (1995–96 to 2003–04), we examine banks’ behaviour in the context of credit markets of an emerging market economy. Our results indicate that, in India, the data for the domestic banks fit well the aforementioned portfolio-choice model, especially for private banks, but the model cannot explain the behaviour of foreign banks. In general, allocation of assets between risk-free government securities and risky credit is affected by past allocation patterns, stock exchange listing (for private banks), risk averseness of banks, regulations regarding treatment of NPA, and ability of banks to recover doubtful credit. It is also evident that banks deal with changing levels of systematic risk by altering the ratio of securitized to non-securitized credit.

Effects of the current financial and economic crisis on the rural landscape as well as the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia

This paper reviews the expected effects of the current financial crisis and subsequent recession on the rural landscape, in particular the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) on the basis of the structure of the rural economy and of different organisations and institutions. Empirical evidence suggests that the crisis has hit the ECA region the hardest. Agriculture contributes about 9% to gross domestic product (GDP) for the ECA region as a whole with 16% of the population being employed in the agricultural sector. As far as the impact of the financial crisis on the agri-food sector is concerned, there are a few interconnected issues: (1) reduction in income elastic food demand and commodity price decline, (2) loss of employment and earnings of rural people working in urban centres, implying also costly labour reallocation, (3) rising rural poverty originating mainly from lack of opportunities in the non-farm sector and a sizable decline of international remittances, (4) tightening of agricultural credit markets, and the (5) collapse of sectoral government support programs and social safety-net measures in many countries. The paper reveals how the crisis hit farming and broader agri-business differently in general and in the ECA sub-regions.

Black-White Wage Gap Among Restaurant Servers: A Replication, Extension, and Exploration of Consumer Racial Discrimination in Tipping

There is a rich history of social science research centering on racial inequalities that continue to be observed across various markets (e.g., labor, housing, and credit markets) and social milieus. Existing research on racial discrimination in consumer markets, however, is relatively scarce and that which has been done has disproportionately focused on consumers as the victims of race-based mistreatment. As such, we know relatively little about how consumers contribute to inequalities in their roles as perpetrators of racial discrimination. In response, in this paper we elaborate on a line of research that is only in its’ infancy stages of development and yet is ripe with opportunities to advance the literature on consumer racial discrimination and racial earnings inequities among tip dependent employees in the United States. Specifically, we analyze data derived from a large exit survey of restaurant consumers (n=378) in an attempt to replicate, extend, and further explore the recently documented effect of service providers’ race on restaurant consumers’ tipping decisions. Our results indicate that both White and Black restaurant customers discriminate against Black servers by tipping them less than their White coworkers. Importantly, we find no evidence that this Black tip penalty is the result of interracial differences in service skills possessed by Black and White servers. We conclude by delineating directions for future research in this neglected but salient area study.

The effect of earlier mating and improving fertility on greenhouse gas emissions intensity of beef production in northern Australian herds

Approximately 5% of Australian national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are derived from the northern beef industry. Improving the reproductive performance of cows has been identified as a key target for increasing profitability, and this higher efficiency is also likely to reduce the GHG emissions intensity of beef production. The effects of strategies to increase the fertility of breeding herds and earlier joining of heifers as yearlings were studied on two properties at Longreach and Boulia in western Queensland. The beef production, GHG emissions, emissions intensity and profitability were investigated and compared with typical management in the two regions. Overall weaning rates achieved on the two properties were 79% and 74% compared with typical herd weaning rates of 58% in both regions. Herds with high reproductive performance had GHG emissions intensities (t CO2-e t–1 liveweight sold) 28% and 22% lower than the typical herds at Longreach and Boulia, with most of the benefit from higher weaning rates. Farm gross margin analysis showed that it was more profitable, by $62 000 at Longreach and $38 000 at Boulia, to utilise higher reproductive performance to increase the amount of liveweight sold with the same number of adult equivalents compared with reducing the number of adult equivalents to maintain the same level of liveweight sold and claiming a carbon credit for lower farm emissions. These gains achieved at two case study properties which had different rainfall, country types, and property sizes suggest similar improvements can be made on-farm across the Mitchell Grass Downs bioregion of northern Australia.

MODELO PARA EL ANÁLISIS DEL FORTALECIMIENTO SOCIOECONÓMICO DE LAS MIPYMES EN COSTA RICA

Resumen El efecto de múltiples variables sobre el bienestar social y económico en las pequeñas y medianas empresas puede ser analizado tomando en cuenta las condiciones sistémicas en el modelo propuesto. Este artículo ofrece un marco teórico o modelo para comprender y explicar la relación entre las variables independientes tales como el crédito, mercados, empresariedad, entre otras, y la variable dependiente tal como los ingresos, la producción o el empleo. El propósito fundamental es organizar la mayoría de variables para determinar porqué los ingresos y el empleo no es sostenible par alas pequeñas y medianas empresas. Por lo tanto, factores sociales, económicos así como culturales e institucionales han sido incluidos en el análisis. El modelo desarrollado puede ayudar a mejorar el diseño de estrategias para lograr el éxito de las pequeñas y medianas empresas y el marco de política pública para el gobierno en Costa Rica.   Abstract The effect of multiples variables on the social and economic welfare in the Small and medium size enterprises can be analized taking in account systemic conditions in this model.This paper offers a theoretical framework or model to understand and explain the relationship between independent variables such as credit, markets, entrepreneurship, among others, and dependent variable such as incomes, production or employment rate. The main idea is organize the all variables to determine why the income or employment level is not sustainable for SMEs. Therefore, social and economic factors as well as cultural and institutional components have been included in this analysis. The developed model can help to improve design and management of competitiveness strategies for SMEs and policy framework for the government in Costa Rica.

CADENA DEL CAFÉ DE LOS SANTOS, COSTA RICA

Resumen La operación de las actividades económicas y su competitividad, analizadas desde una perspectiva de cadenas globales de mercancías, dependen del funcionamiento de los mercados de crédito, tanto nacionales como internacionales. La operación normal de los negocios requiere crédito para fortalecer sus recursos propios y hacer las compras de materia prima, insumos, pago de salarios e inversión. En todos los casos, el crédito puede ser utilizado para mejorar el diseño de productos, impulsar el acceso a nuevos mercados y aumentar la competitividad. A los productores de la región de Los Santos en Costa Rica se les reconoce por innovadores, y al café de la zona por ser un café de altura y de gran calidad. El artículo explora las necesidades de financiamiento de productores, beneficiadores y exportadores de café de Los Santos, sus fuentes de financiamiento y el uso dado a los recursos obtenidos. Entre las necesidades orientadas al mejoramiento de la competitividad se encontraron la renovación de cafetales entre los productores, el mantenimiento de proyectos y tecnología entre los beneficios y la generación de microbeneficios y búsqueda de nichos de mercado entre los exportadores. Abstract From a global commodity chains perspective, economic activities and their competitiveness depend upon the functioning of credit markets, both international and domestic. Current businesses operations require credit to enhance their own resources in order to buy raw material and inputs, pay wages and make investment. Credit may also be used to improve product design, enter new markets and boost competitiveness as a result. High altitude grown coffee from Los Santos, Costa Rica is widely known for its quality, and their growers as innovative. This paper addresses credit needs of coffee growers, processors and exporters in Los Santos, the credit sources they have access to, and the kind of uses the credit is given. Improving competitiveness uses of credit were found among growers, processors and exporters, such as crop and technology improvement, micro processing facilities and new markets search as well.