Sensitivity and Fragmentation Calibration of the ROSINA Reflectron-type Time-Of-Flight Mass Spectrometer

The goal of this work was to increase the performance and to calibrate one of the ROSINA sensors, the Reflectron-type Time-Of-Flight mass spectrometer, currently flying aboard the ESA Rosetta spacecraft. Different optimization techniques were applied to both the lab and space models, and a static calibration was performed using different gas species expected to be detected in the vicinity of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The database thus created was successfully applied to space data, giving consistent results with the other ROSINA sensors.

Risk-based methodology for parameter calibration of a reservoir flood control model

Flash floods are of major relevance in natural disaster management in the Mediterranean region. In many cases, the damaging effects of flash floods can be mitigated by adequate management of flood control reservoirs. This requires the development of suitable models for optimal operation of reservoirs. A probabilistic methodology for calibrating the parameters of a reservoir flood control model (RFCM) that takes into account the stochastic variability of flood events is presented. This study addresses the crucial problem of operating reservoirs during flood events, considering downstream river damages and dam failure risk as conflicting operation criteria. These two criteria are aggregated into a single objective of total expected damages from both the maximum released flows and stored volumes (overall risk index). For each selected parameter set the RFCM is run under a wide range of hydrologic loads (determined through Monte Carlo simulation). The optimal parameter set is obtained through the overall risk index (balanced solution) and then compared with other solutions of the Pareto front. The proposed methodology is implemented at three different reservoirs in the southeast of Spain. The results obtained show that the balanced solution offers a good compromise between the two main objectives of reservoir flood control management

New calibration of Neogene radiolarian events in the North Pacific

New age models for twelve Deep Sea Drilling Project sites in the North Pacific have been produced, based on (in order of importance in our dataset) a recompilation of previously published diatom, calcareous nannofossil and foraminifer first and last occurrences, and magnetostratigraphy. The projected ages of radiolarian first and last occurrences derived from the line of correlation of the age/depth plots have been computed from these sites, and 28 radiolarian events have thereby been newly cross calibrated to North Pacific diatom and other stratigraphy. Several of the North Pacific radiolarian events are older than in previously published equatorial Pacific calibrations, and some may be diachronous within the North Pacific. These patterns may be due to complex latitudinal patterns of clinal variation in morphotypes within lineages, or to migration events from the North Pacific towards the Equator.

Forecasting Helicoverpa populations in Australia: A comparison of regression based models and a bio-climatic based modeling approach

Long-term forecasts of pest pressure are central to the effective management of many agricultural insect pests. In the eastern cropping regions of Australia, serious infestations of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hübner)(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) are experienced annually. Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches of adult moths were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of both species. The size of the spring generation in eastern cropping zones could be related to rainfall in putative source areas in inland Australia. Subsequent generations could be related to the abundance of various crops in agricultural areas, rainfall and the magnitude of the spring population peak. As rainfall figured prominently as a predictor variable, and can itself be predicted using the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trap catches were also related to this variable. The geographic distribution of each species was modelled in relation to climate and CLIMEX was used to predict temporal variation in abundance at given putative source sites in inland Australia using historical meteorological data. These predictions were then correlated with subsequent pest abundance data in a major cropping region. The regression-based and bioclimatic-based approaches to predicting pest abundance are compared and their utility in predicting and interpreting pest dynamics are discussed.

Effect of rainfall as a component of climate change on estuarine fish production in Queensland, Australia

The speculation that climate change may impact on sustainable fish production suggests a need to understand how these effects influence fish catch on a broad scale. With a gross annual value of A$ 2.2 billion, the fishing industry is a significant primary industry in Australia. Many commercially important fish species use estuarine habitats such as mangroves, tidal flats and seagrass beds as nurseries or breeding grounds and have lifecycles correlated to rainfall and temperature patterns. Correlation of catches of mullet (e.g. Mugil cephalus) and barramundi (Lates calcarifer) with rainfall suggests that fisheries may be sensitive to effects of climate change. This work reviews key commercial fish and crustacean species and their link to estuaries and climate parameters. A conceptual model demonstrates ecological and biophysical links of estuarine habitats that influences capture fisheries production. The difficulty involved in explaining the effect of climate change on fisheries arising from the lack of ecological knowledge may be overcome by relating climate parameters with long-term fish catch data. Catch per unit effort (CPUE), rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and catch time series for specific combinations of climate seasons and regions have been explored and surplus production models applied to Queensland's commercial fish catch data with the program CLIMPROD. Results indicate that up to 30% of Queensland's total fish catch and up to 80% of the barramundi catch variation for specific regions can be explained by rainfall often with a lagged response to rainfall events. Our approach allows an evaluation of the economic consequences of climate parameters on estuarine fisheries. thus highlighting the need to develop forecast models and manage estuaries for future climate chan e impact by adjusting the quota for climate change sensitive species. Different modelling approaches are discussed with respect to their forecast ability. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using high resolution tracer data to constrain water storage, flux and age estimates in a spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model

Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Jonathan Dick, Josie Geris, Jason Lessels, and Claire Tunaley for data collection and Audrey Innes for lab sample preparation. We also thank Christian Birkel for discussions about the model structure and comments on an earlier draft of the paper. Climatic data were provided by Iain Malcolm and Marine Scotland Fisheries at the Freshwater Lab, Pitlochry. Additional precipitation data were provided by the UK Meteorological Office and the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC).We thank the European Research Council ERC (project GA 335910 VEWA) for funding the VeWa project.

Bayesian statistics for the calibration of the LISA Pathfinder experiment

The main goal of LISA Path finder (LPF) mission is to estimate the acceleration noise models of the overall LISA Technology Package (LTP) experiment on-board. This will be of crucial importance for the future space-based Gravitational-Wave (GW) detectors, like eLISA. Here, we present the Bayesian analysis framework to process the planned system identification experiments designed for that purpose. In particular, we focus on the analysis strategies to predict the accuracy of the parameters that describe the system in all degrees of freedom. The data sets were generated during the latest operational simulations organised by the data analysis team and this work is part of the LTPDA Matlab toolbox.

TEST-ANALYSIS MODEL CORRELATION AND CALIBRATION OF A MULTI-COMPONENT PLASTIC PART

The goal of this project is to learn the necessary steps to create a finite element model, which can accurately predict the dynamic response of a Kohler Engines Heavy Duty Air Cleaner (HDAC). This air cleaner is composed of three glass reinforced plastic components and two air filters. Several uncertainties arose in the finite element (FE) model due to the HDAC’s component material properties and assembly conditions. To help understand and mitigate these uncertainties, analytical and experimental modal models were created concurrently to perform a model correlation and calibration. Over the course of the project simple and practical methods were found for future FE model creation. Similarly, an experimental method for the optimal acquisition of experimental modal data was arrived upon. After the model correlation and calibration was performed a validation experiment was used to confirm the FE models predictive capabilities.

A methodological approach for the performance optimization of transient seepage models through inverse analysis

The topic of the Ph.D project focuses on the modelling of the soil-water dynamics inside an instrumented embankment section along Secchia River (Cavezzo (MO)) in the period from 2017 to 2018 and the quantification of the performance of the direct and indirect simulations . The commercial code Hydrus2D by Pc-Progress has been chosen to run the direct simulations. Different soil-hydraulic models have been adopted and compared. The parameters of the different hydraulic models are calibrated using a local optimization method based on the Levenberg - Marquardt algorithm implemented in the Hydrus package. The calibration program is carried out using different types of dataset of observation points, different weighting distributions, different combinations of optimized parameters and different initial sets of parameters. The final goal is an in-depth study of the potentialities and limits of the inverse analysis when applied to a complex geotechnical problem as the case study. The second part of the research focuses on the effects of plant roots and soil-vegetation-atmosphere interaction on the spatial and temporal distribution of pore water pressure in soil. The investigated soil belongs to the West Charlestown Bypass embankment, Newcastle, Australia, that showed in the past years shallow instabilities and the use of long stem planting is intended to stabilize the slope. The chosen plant species is the Malaleuca Styphelioides, native of eastern Australia. The research activity included the design and realization of a specific large scale apparatus for laboratory experiments. Local suction measurements at certain intervals of depth and radial distances from the root bulb are recorded within the vegetated soil mass under controlled boundary conditions. The experiments are then reproduced numerically using the commercial code Hydrus 2D. Laboratory data are used to calibrate the RWU parameters and the parameters of the hydraulic model.

Virtual Calibration of CO2 and Pollutant Emissions of a High-Performance PHEV using Model-in-the-Loop Methodology

The study analyses the calibration process of a newly developed high-performance plug-in hybrid electric passenger car powertrain. The complexity of modern powertrains and the more and more restrictive regulations regarding pollutant emissions are the primary challenges for the calibration of a vehicle’s powertrain. In addition, the managers of OEM need to know as earlier as possible if the vehicle under development will meet the target technical features (emission included). This leads to the necessity for advanced calibration methodologies, in order to keep the development of the powertrain robust, time and cost effective. The suggested solution is the virtual calibration, that allows the tuning of control functions of a powertrain before having it built. The aim of this study is to calibrate virtually the hybrid control unit functions in order to optimize the pollutant emissions and the fuel consumption. Starting from the model of the conventional vehicle, the powertrain is then hybridized and integrated with emissions and aftertreatments models. After its validation, the hybrid control unit strategies are optimized using the Model-in-the-Loop testing methodology. The calibration activities will proceed thanks to the implementation of a Hardware-in-the-Loop environment, that will allow to test and calibrate the Engine and Transmission control units effectively, besides in a time and cost saving manner.

Optimal pose selection for the calibration of an overconstrained Cable-Driven Parallel Robot

In this project an optimal pose selection method for the calibration of an overconstrained Cable-Driven Parallel robot is presented. This manipulator belongs to a subcategory of parallel robots, where the classic rigid "legs" are replaced by cables. Cables are flexible elements that bring advantages and disadvantages to the robot modeling. For this reason, there are many open research issues, and the calibration of geometric parameters is one of them. The identification of the geometry of a robot, in particular, is usually called Kinematic Calibration. Many methods have been proposed in the past years for the solution of the latter problem. Although these methods are based on calibration using different kinematic models, when the robot’s geometry becomes more complex, their robustness and reliability decrease. This fact makes the selection of the calibration poses more complicated. The position and the orientation of the endeffector in the workspace become important in terms of selection. Thus, in general, it is necessary to evaluate the robustness of the chosen calibration method, by means, for example, of a parameter such as the observability index. In fact, it is known from the theory, that the maximization of the above mentioned index identifies the best choice of calibration poses, and consequently, using this pose set may improve the calibration process. The objective of this thesis is to analyze optimization algorithms which aim to calculate an optimal choice of poses both in quantitative and qualitative terms. Quantitatively, because it is of fundamental importance to understand how many poses are needed. Not necessarily a greater number of poses leads to a better result. Qualitatively, because it is useful to understand if the selected combination of poses actually gives additional information in the process of the identification of the parameters.

Data analysis and hydrological modelling of rainfall and discharge extremes along the Tione River: implications for the design of water structures

There are many natural events that can negatively affect the urban ecosystem, but weather-climate variations are certainly among the most significant. The history of settlements has been characterized by extreme events like earthquakes and floods, which repeat themselves at different times, causing extensive damage to the built heritage on a structural and urban scale. Changes in climate also alter various climatic subsystems, changing rainfall regimes and hydrological cycles, increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events (heavy rainfall).  From an hydrological risk perspective, it is crucial to understand future events that could occur and their magnitude in order to design safer infrastructures. Unfortunately, it is not easy to understand future scenarios as the complexity of climate is enormous.  For this thesis, precipitation and discharge extremes were primarily used as data sources. It is important to underline that the two data sets are not separated: changes in rainfall regime, due to climate change, could significantly affect overflows into receiving water bodies. It is imperative that we understand and model climate change effects on water structures to support the development of adaptation strategies.   The main purpose of this thesis is to search for suitable water structures for a road located along the Tione River. Therefore, through the analysis of the area from a hydrological point of view, we aim to guarantee the safety of the infrastructure over time.   The observations made have the purpose to underline how models such as a stochastic one can improve the quality of an analysis for design purposes, and influence choices.

Variability Modeling Of Rainfall, Deforestation, And Incidence Of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis In Orán, Argentina, 1985-2007.

American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) is a disease transmitted to humans by the female sandflies of the genus Lutzomyia. Several factors are involved in the disease transmission cycle. In this work only rainfall and deforestation were considered to assess the variability in the incidence of ATL. In order to reach this goal, monthly recorded data of the incidence of ATL in Orán, Salta, Argentina, were used, in the period 1985-2007. The square root of the relative incidence of ATL and the corresponding variance were formulated as time series, and these data were smoothed by moving averages of 12 and 24 months, respectively. The same procedure was applied to the rainfall data. Typical months, which are April, August, and December, were found and allowed us to describe the dynamical behavior of ATL outbreaks. These results were tested at 95% confidence level. We concluded that the variability of rainfall would not be enough to justify the epidemic outbreaks of ATL in the period 1997-2000, but it consistently explains the situation observed in the years 2002 and 2004. Deforestation activities occurred in this region could explain epidemic peaks observed in both years and also during the entire time of observation except in 2005-2007.