Essays in equilibrium asset pricing

This thesis consists of four essays in equilibrium asset pricing. The main topic is investors' heterogeneity: I investigates the equilibrium implications for the financial markets when investors have different attitudes toward risk. The first chapter studies why expected risk and remuneration on the aggregate market are negatively related, even if intuition and standard theory suggest a positive relation. I show that the negative trade-off can obtain in equilibrium if investors' beliefs about economic fundamentals are procyclically biased and the market Sharpe ratio is countercyclical. I verify that such conditions hold in the real markets and I find empirical support for the risk-return dynamics predicted by the model. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay studies how het¬erogeneity in risk preferences interacts with other sources of heterogeneity and how this affects asset prices in equilibrium. Using perceived macroeconomic un¬certainty as source of heterogeneity, the model helps to explain some patterns of financial returns, even if heterogeneity is small as suggested by survey data. The second essay determines conditions such that equilibrium prices have analytical solutions when investors have heterogeneous risk attitudes and macroeconomic fundamentals feature latent uncertainty. This approach provides additional in-sights to the previous literature where models require numerical solutions. The third chapter studies why equity claims (i.e. assets paying a single future dividend) feature premia and risk decreasing with the horizon, even if standard models imply the opposite shape. I show that labor relations helps to explain the puzzle. When workers have bargaining power to exploit partial income insurance within the firm, wages are smoother and dividends are riskier than in a standard economy. Distributional risk among workers and shareholders provides a rationale to the equity short-term risk, which leads to downward sloping term structures of premia and risk for equity claim. Résumé Cette thèse se compose de quatre essais dans l'évaluation des actifs d'équilibre. Le sujet principal est l'hétérogénéité des investisseurs: J'étudie les implications d'équilibre pour les marchés financiers où les investisseurs ont des attitudes différentes face au risque. Le première chapitre étudie pourquoi attendus risque et la rémunération sur le marché global sont liées négativement, même si l'intuition et la théorie standard suggèrent une relation positive. Je montre que le compromis négatif peut obtenir en équilibre si les croyances des investisseurs sur les fondamentaux économiques sont procyclique biaisées et le ratio de Sharpe du marché est anticyclique. Je vérifier que ces conditions sont réalisées dans les marchés réels et je trouve un appui empirique à la dynamique risque-rendement prédites par le modèle. Le deuxième chapitre se compose de deux essais. Le première essai étudie com¬ment hétérogénéité dans les préférences de risque inter agit avec d'autres sources d'hétérogénéité et comment cela affecte les prix des actifs en équilibre. Utili¬sation de l'incertitude macroéconomique perù comme source d'hétérogénéité, le modèle permet d'expliquer certaines tendances de rendements financiers, même si l'hétérogénéité est faible comme suggéré par les données d'enquête. Le deuxième essai détermine des conditions telles que les prix d'équilibre disposer de solutions analytiques lorsque les investisseurs ont des attitudes des risques hétérogènes et les fondamentaux macroéconomiques disposent d'incertitude latente. Cette approche fournit un éclairage supplémentaire à la littérature antérieure où les modèles nécessitent des solutions numériques. Le troisième chapitre étudie pourquoi les equity-claims (actifs que paient un seul dividende futur) ont les primes et le risque décroissante avec l'horizon, mme si les modèles standards impliquent la forme opposée. Je montre que les relations de travail contribue à expliquer l'énigme. Lorsque les travailleurs ont le pouvoir de négociation d'exploiter assurance revenu partiel dans l'entreprise, les salaires sont plus lisses et les dividendes sont plus risqués que dans une économie standard. Risque de répartition entre les travailleurs et les actionnaires fournit une justification à le risque à court terme, ce qui conduit à des term-structures en pente descendante des primes et des risques pour les equity-claims.

New electrocardiographic criteria for discriminating between Brugada types 2 and 3 patterns and incomplete right bundle branch block.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate new electrocardiographic (ECG) criteria for discriminating between incomplete right bundle branch block (RBBB) and the Brugada types 2 and 3 ECG patterns. BACKGROUND: Brugada syndrome can manifest as either type 2 or type 3 pattern. The latter should be distinguished from incomplete RBBB, present in 3% of the population. METHODS: Thirty-eight patients with either type 2 or type 3 Brugada pattern that were referred for an antiarrhythmic drug challenge (AAD) were included. Before AAD, 2 angles were measured from ECG leads V(1) and/or V(2) showing incomplete RBBB: 1) α, the angle between a vertical line and the downslope of the r'-wave, and 2) β, the angle between the upslope of the S-wave and the downslope of the r'-wave. Baseline angle values, alone or combined with QRS duration, were compared between patients with negative and positive results on AAD. Receiver-operating characteristic curves were constructed to identify optimal discriminative cutoff values. RESULTS: The mean β angle was significantly smaller in the 14 patients with negative results on AAD compared to the 24 patients with positive results on AAD (36 ± 20° vs. 62 ± 20°, p < 0.01). Its optimal cutoff value was 58°, which yielded a positive predictive value of 73% and a negative predictive value of 87% for conversion to type 1 pattern on AAD; α was slightly less sensitive and specific compared with β. When the angles were combined with QRS duration, it tended to improve discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with suspected Brugada syndrome, simple ECG criteria can enable discrimination between incomplete RBBB and types 2 and 3 Brugada patterns.

Avalanche dynamics of fiber bundle models

We present a detailed analytical and numerical study of the avalanche distributions of the continuous damage fiber bundle model CDFBM . Linearly elastic fibers undergo a series of partial failure events which give rise to a gradual degradation of their stiffness. We show that the model reproduces a wide range of mechanical behaviors. We find that macroscopic hardening and plastic responses are characterized by avalanche distributions, which exhibit an algebraic decay with exponents between 5/2 and 2 different from those observed in mean-field fiber bundle models. We also derive analytically the phase diagram of a family of CDFBM which covers a large variety of potential avalanche size distributions. Our results provide a unified view of the statistics of breaking avalanches in fiber bundle models

Critical ruptures in a bundle of slowly relaxing fibers

We study the damage enhanced creep rupture of disordered materials by means of a fiber bundle model. Broken fibers undergo a slow stress relaxation modeled by a Maxwell element whose stress exponent m can vary in a broad range. Under global load sharing we show that due to the strength disorder of fibers, the lifetime ʧ of the bundle has sample-to-sample fluctuations characterized by a log-normal distribution independent of the type of disorder. We determine the Monkman-Grant relation of the model and establish a relation between the rupture life tʄ and the characteristic time tm of the intermediate creep regime of the bundle where the minimum strain rate is reached, making possible reliable estimates of ʧ from short term measurements. Approaching macroscopic failure, the deformation rate has a finite time power law singularity whose exponent is a decreasing function of m. On the microlevel the distribution of waiting times is found to have a power law behavior with m-dependent exponents different below and above the critical load of the bundle. Approaching the critical load from above, the cutoff value of the distributions has a power law divergence whose exponent coincides with the stress exponent of Maxwell elements

Double-bundle transtibial posterior cruciate ligament reconstruction with a tendon-patellar bone-semitendinosus tendon autograft: clinical results with a minimum of 2 years' follow-up.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical and subjective outcomes after arthroscopic-assisted double-bundle posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) reconstruction. METHODS: A series of 15 patients with grade III isolated chronic PCL tears underwent double-bundle PCL reconstruction. Of these patients, 8 (53%) had simultaneous fractures. The mean time from accident to surgery was 10.8 months (range, 8 to 15 months). The mean age at the time of surgery was 28.2 years (range, 17 to 43 years). All of the patients reported knee insecurity during activities of daily living or light sporting activities, with associated anterior knee pain in 5 patients. Preoperatively, posterolateral or posteromedial corner injuries were ruled out through accurate clinical examination. The knees were assessed before surgery and at a mean follow-up of 3.2 years (range, 2 to 5 years) with a physical examination, 4 different rating scales, and stress radiographs obtained with a Telos device (Telos, Marburg, Germany). RESULTS: Postoperative physical examination revealed a reduction of the posterior drawer and tibial step-off in all cases, although the posterior laxity was not completely normalized. Nevertheless, the patients were subjectively better after surgery. The subjective International Knee Documentation Committee score was significantly ameliorated. With regard to the objective International Knee Documentation Committee score, 6 knees (40%) were graded as abnormal because of posterior displacement of 6 mm or greater on follow-up stress radiographs with the Telos device. On the Lysholm knee scoring scale, the score was excellent in 13% of patients and good in 87%. The mean score on the Hospital for Special Surgery knee ligament rating scale was 85.8. The Tegner activity score showed an amelioration after surgery, but no patient resumed his or her preinjury level of activities. The postoperative stress radiographs revealed an improvement in posterior instability of 50% or more in all but 3 knees (20%). CONCLUSIONS: Our technique of double-bundle PCL reconstruction produced a significant reduction in knee symptoms and allowed the patients to return to moderate or strenuous activity, although the posterior tibial translation was not completely normalized and our results appear to be no better than the results of single-bundle PCL reconstruction. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level IV, therapeutic case series.

A Simple Access Pricing Rule to Achieve the Ramsey Outcome in Two-Way Access

In this paper, I consider a general and informationally effcient approach to determine the optimal access rule and show that there exists a simple rule that achieves the Ramsey outcome as the unique equilibrium when networks compete in linear prices without network-based price discrimination. My approach is informationally effcient in the sense that the regulator is required to know only the marginal cost structure, i.e. the marginal cost of making and terminating a call. The approach is general in that access prices can depend not only on the marginal costs but also on the retail prices, which can be observed by consumers and therefore by the regulator as well. In particular, I consider the set of linear access pricing rules which includes any fixed access price, the Efficient Component Pricing Rule (ECPR) and the Modified ECPR as special cases. I show that in this set, there is a unique access rule that achieves the Ramsey outcome as the unique equilibrium as long as there exists at least a mild degree of substitutability among networks' services.

Nursing intervention bundle for enteral nutrition in intensive care: a collective construction

Objective The collective construction of a nursing intervention bundle for patients in critical care in the hospital receiving enteral nutrition therapy, supported by evidence-based practice. Method A qualitative convergent-care study with 24 nursing professionals in an intensive care unit of a public hospital in Santa Catarina. Data collection was performed from May to August 2013, with semi-structured interviews and discussion groups. Results Four interventions emerged that constituted the bundle: bedside pH monitoring to confirm the position of the tube; stabilization of the tube; enteric position of the tube; and maintaining the head of the bed elevated at 30° to 45°.
 Conclusion The interventions chosen neither required additional professional workload nor extra charges to the institution, which are identified as improving the adoption of the bundle by nursing professionals at the ICU.

Bundling and competition for slots: Sequential pricing

In this paper we study, as in Jeon-Menicucci (2009), competition between sellerswhen each of them sells a portfolio of distinct products to a buyer having limitedslots. This paper considers sequential pricing and complements our main paper (Jeon-Menicucci, 2009) that considers simultaneous pricing.First, Jeon-Menicucci (2009) find that under simultaneous individual pricing, equilibriumoften does not exist and hence the outcome is often inefficient. By contrast,equilibrium always exists under sequential individual pricing and we characterize it inthis paper. We find that each seller faces a trade-off between the number of slots heoccupies and surplus extraction per product, and there is no particular reason thatthis leads to an efficient allocation of slots.Second, Jeon-Menicucci (2009) find that when bundling is allowed, there alwaysexists an efficient equilibrium but inefficient equilibria can also exist due to purebundling (for physical products) or slotting contracts. Under sequential pricing,we find that all equilibria are efficient regardless of whether firms can use slottingcontracts, and both for digital goods and for physical goods. Therefore, sequentialpricing presents an even stronger case for laissez-faire in the matter of bundling thansimultaneous pricing.

Fiscal policy, pricing frictions and monetary accommodation

We investigate the theoretical conditions for effectiveness of government consumptionexpenditure expansions using US, Euro area and UK data. Fiscal expansions taking placewhen monetary policy is accommodative lead to large output multipliers in normal times.The 2009-2010 packages need not produce significant output multipliers, may havemoderate debt effects, and only generate temporary inflation. Expenditure expansionsaccompanied by deficit/debt consolidations schemes may lead to short run output gains buttheir success depends on how monetary policy and expectations behave. Trade opennessand the cyclicality of the labor wedge explain cross-country differences in the magnitude ofthe multipliers.

On the term structure of Interbank interest rates: Jump-diffusion processes and option pricing

In this paper we study the dynamic behavior of the term structureof Interbank interest rates and the pricing of options on interest ratesensitive securities. We posit a generalized single factor model withjumps to take into account external influences in the market. Daily datais used to test for jump effects. Qualitative examination of the linkagebetween Monetary Authorities' interventions and jumps are studied. Pricingresults suggests a systematic underpricing in bonds and call options ifthe jumps component is not included. However, the pricing of put optionson bonds presents indeterminacies.

Fair pricing of deposit insurance. Is it possible? Yes. Is it desirable? No

This note elaborates on a recent article by Chan, Greenbaum and Thakor(1992) who contend that fairly priced deposit insurance is incompatiblewithfree competition in the banking sector, in the presence of adverseselection.We show here that at soon as one introduces a real economic motivationfromprivate banks to manage the deposits from the public, then fairly priceddeposit insurance becomes possible. However, we also show that sucha fairlypriced insurance is never desirable, precisely because of adverseselection.We compute the characteristics of the optimal premium schedule, whichtradesoff between the cost of adverse selection and the cost of ``unfaircompetition ''.

Solving non-linear stochastic models by parameterizing expectations: An application to asset pricing with production

A new algorithm called the parameterized expectations approach(PEA) for solving dynamic stochastic models under rational expectationsis developed and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed. Thisalgorithm can, in principle, approximate the true equilibrium arbitrarilywell. Also, this algorithm works from the Euler equations, so that theequilibrium does not have to be cast in the form of a planner's problem.Monte--Carlo integration and the absence of grids on the state variables,cause the computation costs not to go up exponentially when the numberof state variables or the exogenous shocks in the economy increase. \\As an application we analyze an asset pricing model with endogenousproduction. We analyze its implications for time dependence of volatilityof stock returns and the term structure of interest rates. We argue thatthis model can generate hump--shaped term structures.

Option pricing under stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rate in the Spanish case

Among the underlying assumptions of the Black-Scholes option pricingmodel, those of a fixed volatility of the underlying asset and of aconstantshort-term riskless interest rate, cause the largest empirical biases. Onlyrecently has attention been paid to the simultaneous effects of thestochasticnature of both variables on the pricing of options. This paper has tried toestimate the effects of a stochastic volatility and a stochastic interestrate inthe Spanish option market. A discrete approach was used. Symmetricand asymmetricGARCH models were tried. The presence of in-the-mean and seasonalityeffectswas allowed. The stochastic processes of the MIBOR90, a Spanishshort-terminterest rate, from March 19, 1990 to May 31, 1994 and of the volatilityofthe returns of the most important Spanish stock index (IBEX-35) fromOctober1, 1987 to January 20, 1994, were estimated. These estimators wereused onpricing Call options on the stock index, from November 30, 1993 to May30, 1994.Hull-White and Amin-Ng pricing formulas were used. These prices werecomparedwith actual prices and with those derived from the Black-Scholesformula,trying to detect the biases reported previously in the literature. Whereasthe conditional variance of the MIBOR90 interest rate seemed to be freeofARCH effects, an asymmetric GARCH with in-the-mean and seasonalityeffectsand some evidence of persistence in variance (IEGARCH(1,2)-M-S) wasfoundto be the model that best represent the behavior of the stochasticvolatilityof the IBEX-35 stock returns. All the biases reported previously in theliterature were found. All the formulas overpriced the options inNear-the-Moneycase and underpriced the options otherwise. Furthermore, in most optiontrading, Black-Scholes overpriced the options and, because of thetime-to-maturityeffect, implied volatility computed from the Black-Scholes formula,underestimatedthe actual volatility.