Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of Fluid Concentration on the Elevation of Boiling Point of Blackberry Juice

The rise in boiling point of blackberry juice was experimentally measured at soluble solids concentrations in the range of 9.4 to 58.4Brix and pressures between 4.9 103 and 9.0 104 Pa (abs.). Different approaches to representing experimental data, including the Duhring`s rule, a model similar to Antoine equation and other empirical models proposed in the literature were tested. In the range of 9.4 to 33.6Brix, the rise in boiling point was nearly independent of pressure, varying only with juice concentration. Considerable deviations of this behavior began to occur at concentrations higher than 39.1Brix. Experimental data could be best predicted by adjusting an empirical model, which consists of a single equation that takes into account the dependence of rise in boiling point on pressure and concentration.

O uso comercial da internet por micro, pequenas e médias empresas de Porto Alegre : um estudo exploratório sobre as empresas do trade point Porto Alegre

Uma grande evolução aconteceu no mundo com o surgimento da Internet. Ela causou um espantoso aumento das comunicações, que passaram a ser em tempo real e com uma abrangência mundial. Foi a democratização da informação. A Internet serve como uma grande ferramenta para as empresas, principalmente com a globalização dos mercados, fenômeno que cresce cada dia mais e atinge a todos. A globalização fez com que as organizações se tornassem globais, e a Internet funciona como um elo de ligação entre empresas, fornecedores e consumidores. Este trabalho consistiu na realização de uma pesquisa survey exploratória com o objetivo de verificar e descrever o uso potencial da Internet como ferramenta de auxílio à realização de negócios de caráter global, nas micro, pequenas e médias empresas de Porto Alegre. A amostra das empresas pesquisadas foi extraída do Trade Point Porto Alegre, por ser essa uma entidade que tem por objetivo auxiliar as empresas a realizarem operações globais. Com relação ao mercado global, o trabalho identificou que quase todas as empresas acreditam que ele tenha oportunidades de negócios. Os principais meios para entrar nesse mercado são a participação em feiras e rodadas de negócios, contato pessoal e o Trade Point. A Internet já está disseminada no meio empresarial, todas as empresas já a conhecem, e boa parte das empresas realizam operações que podem ser auxiliadas pela rede, como comunicação, promoção de produtos e acompanhamento pós-venda. Identificou-se que as microempresas são as que menos acreditam no mercado internacional, mas apontaram que a Internet pode ajudá-las em suas atividades. Já as pequenas empresas são as que atuam no mercado internacional e acreditam que a Internet possa ajudá-las em algumas atividades. Por fim, as médias empresas, também atuam no mercado internacional, principalmente com as exportações, e são as que já estão utilizando a Internet. O Trade Point se mostrou um serviço bem requisitado pelas empresas, principalmente as que atuam com o comércio internacional. As principais vantagens citadas foram a centralização de informações e a geração de novos negócios.

Three essays on local demand for public services

Local provision of public services has the positive effect of increasing the efficiency because each locality has its idiosyncrasies that determine a particular demand for public services. This dissertation addresses different aspects of the local demand for public goods and services and their relationship with political incentives. The text is divided in three essays. The first essay aims to test the existence of yardstick competition in education spending using panel data from Brazilian municipalities. The essay estimates two-regime spatial Durbin models with time and spatial fixed effects using maximum likelihood, where the regimes represent different electoral and educational accountability institutional settings. First, it is investigated whether the lame duck incumbents tend to engage in less strategic interaction as a result of the impossibility of reelection, which lowers the incentives for them to signal their type (good or bad) to the voters by mimicking their neighbors’ expenditures. Additionally, it is evaluated whether the lack of electorate support faced by the minority governments causes the incumbents to mimic the neighbors’ spending to a greater extent to increase their odds of reelection. Next, the essay estimates the effects of the institutional change introduced by the disclosure on April 2007 of the Basic Education Development Index (known as IDEB) and its goals on the strategic interaction at the municipality level. This institutional change potentially increased the incentives for incumbents to follow the national best practices in an attempt to signal their type to voters, thus reducing the importance of local information spillover. The same model is also tested using school inputs that are believed to improve students’ performance in place of education spending. The results show evidence for yardstick competition in education spending. Spatial auto-correlation is lower among the lame ducks and higher among the incumbents with minority support (a smaller vote margin). In addition, the institutional change introduced by the IDEB reduced the spatial interaction in education spending and input-setting, thus diminishing the importance of local information spillover. The second essay investigates the role played by the geographic distance between the poor and non-poor in the local demand for income redistribution. In particular, the study provides an empirical test of the geographically limited altruism model proposed in Pauly (1973), incorporating the possibility of participation costs associated with the provision of transfers (Van de Wale, 1998). First, the discussion is motivated by allowing for an “iceberg cost” of participation in the programs for the poor individuals in Pauly’s original model. Next, using data from the 2000 Brazilian Census and a panel of municipalities based on the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) from 2001 to 2007, all the distance-related explanatory variables indicate that an increased proximity between poor and non-poor is associated with better targeting of the programs (demand for redistribution). For instance, a 1-hour increase in the time spent commuting by the poor reduces the targeting by 3.158 percentage points. This result is similar to that of Ashworth, Heyndels and Smolders (2002) but is definitely not due to the program leakages. To empirically disentangle participation costs and spatially restricted altruism effects, an additional test is conducted using unique panel data based on the 2004 and 2006 PNAD, which assess the number of benefits and the average benefit value received by beneficiaries. The estimates suggest that both cost and altruism play important roles in targeting determination in Brazil, and thus, in the determination of the demand for redistribution. Lastly, the results indicate that ‘size matters’; i.e., the budget for redistribution has a positive impact on targeting. The third essay aims to empirically test the validity of the median voter model for the Brazilian case. Information on municipalities are obtained from the Population Census and the Brazilian Supreme Electoral Court for the year 2000. First, the median voter demand for local public services is estimated. The bundles of services offered by reelection candidates are identified as the expenditures realized during incumbents’ first term in office. The assumption of perfect information of candidates concerning the median demand is relaxed and a weaker hypothesis, of rational expectation, is imposed. Thus, incumbents make mistakes about the median demand that are referred to as misperception errors. Thus, at a given point in time, incumbents can provide a bundle (given by the amount of expenditures per capita) that differs from median voter’s demand for public services by a multiplicative error term, which is included in the residuals of the demand equation. Next, it is estimated the impact of the module of this misperception error on the electoral performance of incumbents using a selection models. The result suggests that the median voter model is valid for the case of Brazilian municipalities.

Influence of Fluid Concentration on the Elevation of Boiling Point of Blackberry Juice

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Iterated deferred correction for linear two-point boundary value problems

An analysis of iterated deferred correction based on various classes of implicit Runge-Kutta formulae is given. Out of different possibilities considered, it is shown that those based purely on Lobatto formulae have the best stability. The enhanced stability of Lobatto schemes is very important for the efficient integration of excessively stiff boundary value problems and this is demonstrated by means of some numerical results.

Elevation of boiling point of coffee extract

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Thermal evaporation: Representation of rise in boiling point of grapefruit juice

The rise in boiling point of grapefruit juice was experimentally measured at soluble solids concentrations in the range of 9.3-60.6 °Brix and pressures between °6.0 × 103 and 9.0 × 104 Pa. Different approaches to represent experimental data, including the Dhring's rule, the Antoine equation and empirical models proposed in the literature were tested. In the range of 9.3-29.0 °Brix, the rise in boiling point was nearly independent of pressure, varying only with juice concentration. Considerable deviations of this behavior began to occur at concentrations higher than 29.0 °Brix. Experimental data could be best predicted by adjusting an empirical model, which consisted of a single equation that takes into account the dependence of rise in boiling point on pressure and concentration. © SAGE Publications 2007.

Best practices in defence of competition in Argentina and Brazil: useful aspects for Central America

Includes bibliography

Comparative analysis of current and voltage-controlled photovoltaic Maximum Power Point tracking

Maximum Power Point tracking (MPPT) in photovoltaic (PV) systems may be achieved by controlling either the voltage or current of the PV device. There is no consensus in the technical literature about how is the best choice. This paper provides a comparative analysis performance among current and voltage control using two different MPPT strategies: the perturb and observe (P&O) and the incremental conductance techniques. © 2011 IEEE.

Jornalismo best-seller: o livro-reportagem no Brasil contemporâneo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Tool Condition Monitoring of Single-Point Dresser Using Acoustic Emission and Neural Networks Models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Natural formations at the Earth-Moon triangular point in perturbed restricted problems

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Is the internal connection more efficient than external connection in mechanical, biological, and esthetical point of views? A systematic review

This systematic review aimed to evaluate if the internal connection is more efficient than the external connection and its associated influencing factors. A specific question was formulated according to the Population, Intervention, Control, and Outcome (PICO): Is internal connection more efficient than external connection in mechanical, biological, and esthetical point of views? An electronic search of the MEDLINE and the Web of Knowledge databases was performed for relevant studies published in English up to November 2013 by two independent reviewers. The keywords used in the search included a combination of dental implant and internal connection or Morse connection or external connection. Selected studies were randomized clinical trials, prospective or retrospective studies, and in vitro studies with a clear aim of investigating the internal and/or external implant connection use. From an initial screening yield of 674 articles, 64 potentially relevant articles were selected after an evaluation of their titles and abstracts. Full texts of these articles were obtained with 29 articles fulfilling the inclusion criteria. Morse taper connection has the best sealing ability. Concerning crestal bone loss, internal connections presented better results than external connections. The limitation of the present study was the absence of randomized clinical trials that investigated if the internal connection was more efficient than the external connection. The external and internal connections have different mechanical, biological, and esthetical characteristics. Besides all systems that show proper success rates and effectiveness, crestal bone level maintenance is more important around internal connections than external connections. The Morse taper connection seems to be more efficient concerning biological aspects, allowing lower bacterial leakage and bone loss in single implants, including aesthetic regions. Additionally, this connection type can be successfully indicated for fixed partial prostheses and overdenture planning, since it exhibits high mechanical stability.