Bias in returns to tenure when firm wages and employment comove: A quantitative assessment and solution

It is well known that, unless worker-firm match quality is controlled for, returns to firm tenure (RTT) estimated directly via reduced form wage (Mincer) equations will be biased. In this paper we show that even if match quality is properly controlled for there is a further pervasive source of bias, namely the co-movement of firm employment and firm wages. In a simple mechanical model where human capital is absent and separation is exogenous we show that positively covarying shocks (either aggregate or firm level) to firms employment and wages cause downward bias in OLS regression estimates of RTT. We show that the long established procedures for dealing with "traditional" RTT bias do not circumvent the additional problem we have identified. We argue that if a reduced form estimation of RTT is undertaken, firm-year fixed effects must be added in order to eliminate this bias. Estimates from two large panel datasets from Portugal and Germany show that the bias is empirically important. Adding firm-year fixed effects to the regression increases estimates of RTT in the two respective countries by between 3.5% and 4.5% of wages at 20 years of tenure over 80% (50%) of the estimated RTT level itself. The results extend to tenure correlates used in macroeconomics such as the minimum unemployment rate since joining the firm. Adding firm-year fixed effects changes estimates of these effects also.

O infotainment em tempo de férias: um novo paradigma do Jornalismo Televisivo?: análise do jornal da noite de sábado da SIC

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ciências da Comunicação (área de especialização em Informação e Jornalismo)

Perfil neuropsicológico y sesgos cognitivos de adolescentes con diferentes patrones de consumo de alcohol. Neuropsychological profile and cognitive bias in adolescents with different alcohol consumption patterns.

Identificación y caracterización del problema objeto de estudio: Diversas investigaciones señalan que el uso o consumo de alcohol comienza durante la adolescencia. En este periodo del desarrollo típicamente se han reportado deterioros asociados con el consumo de alcohol sobre diversas funciones cognitivas. Sin embargo, los hallazgos no siempre han sido concluyentes. Hipótesis: a) Existe una mayor cantidad de déficits neuropsicológicos (especialmente en los dominios asociados con la toma de decisiones) en los grupos de adolescentes que presentan patrones de consumo elevados o tipo binge y en los adolescentes bajo tratamiento; b) Existen sesgos cognitivos de tipo implícito en los adolescentes expuestos a publicidades referidas a bebidas alcohólicas; y c) Existe mayor presencia de expectativas negativas en el grupo conformado por niños, así como una mayor presencia de expectativas positivas en el grupo conformado por adolescentes. Planteo de Objetivos: se pretende lograr un perfil neuropsicológico de adolescentes de ambos sexos en función de patrones de consumo de alcohol bien diferenciados. Asimismo, se intentará determinar la presencia de sesgos cognitivos hacia estímulos asociados con el alcohol en función de las expectativas hacia el psicotrópico y el tipo de consumo del mismo que presenta la población bajo estudio. Finalmente, se buscará determinar si existen cambios evolutivos en las expectativas hacia el alcohol que pudieran indicar la presencia de mayor vulnerabilidad al consumo de alcohol. Materiales y métodos a utilizar: Se utilizarán pruebas neuropsicológicas (IGT, WCST, otras) y cognitivas (AEQ o similares). Se apelará al uso de diseños ex post facto prospectivos de tipo simple o factoriales, diseños factoriales, estudios instrumentales y estudios descriptivos de poblaciones mediante encuestas. Resultados esperados: 1) Se espera encontrar una mayor cantidad de déficits neuropsicológicos (especialmente en los dominios asociados con la toma de decisiones) en los grupos de adolescentes con patrones de consumo de alcohol elevados y binge, así como en el grupo de adolescentes bajo tratamiento. 2) Se espera encontrar la presencia de sesgos cognitivos implícitos en aquellos adolescentes expuestos a publicidades referidas a bebidas alcohólicas en contraposición a los adolescentes expuestos a publicidades de bebidas no-alcohólicas. 3) Se espera encontrar una mayor presencia de expectativas negativas en el grupo conformado por niños, y una mayor presencia de expectativas positivas en el grupo conformado por adolescentes, con lo que se verificaría el supuesto que señala que las EA se modifican a lo largo del desarrollo. Asimismo, se espera confirmar que las EA cambian en función de la experiencia de consumo de alcohol. Importancia del proyecto: En el ámbito local no se han realizado estudios sistemáticos de esta naturaleza, la información que se obtenga permitirá evaluar el impacto del uso y abuso de alcohol durante la adolescencia así como diseñar y ejecutar mejores estrategias de prevención y de rehabilitación y, al mismo tiempo, facilitará la toma de decisiones en el campo de la planificación de políticas sanitarias dirigidas a los adolescentes.

Der Anti-Bias-Ansatz und Rassismus : eine kritische Analyse am Beispiel des Projekts "Perspektivwechsel"

[s.c.]

Effort, reward and self-reported mental health: a simulation study on negative affectivity bias.

Background : In the present article, we propose an alternative method for dealing with negative affectivity (NA) biases in research, while investigating the association between a deleterious psychosocial environment at work and poor mental health. First, we investigated how strong NA must be to cause an observed correlation between the independent and dependent variables. Second, we subjectively assessed whether NA can have a large enough impact on a large enough number of subjects to invalidate the observed correlations between dependent and independent variables.Methods : We simulated 10,000 populations of 300 subjects each, using the marginal distribution of workers in an actual population that had answered the Siegrist's questionnaire on effort and reward imbalance (ERI) and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ).Results : The results of the present study suggested that simulated NA has a minimal effect on the mean scores for effort and reward. However, the correlations between the effort and reward imbalance (ERI) ratio and the GHQ score might be important, even in simulated populations with a limited NA.Conclusions : When investigating the relationship between the ERI ratio and the GHQ score, we suggest the following rules for the interpretation of the results: correlations with an explained variance of 5% and below should be considered with caution; correlations with an explained variance between 5% and 10% may result from NA, although this effect does not seem likely; and correlations with an explained variance of 10% and above are not likely to be the result of NA biases. [Authors]

Electoral Uncertainty and the Deficit Bias in a New Keynesian Economy

Recent attempts to incorporate optimal fiscal policy into New Keynesian models subject to nominal inertia, have tended to assume that policy makers are benevolent and have access to a commitment technology. A separate literature, on the New Political Economy, has focused on real economies where there is strategic use of policy instruments in a world of political conflict. In this paper we combine these literatures and assume that policy is set in a New Keynesian economy by one of two policy makers facing electoral uncertainty (in terms of infrequent elections and an endogenous voting mechanism). The policy makers generally share the social welfare function, but differ in their preferences over fiscal expenditure (in its size and/or composition). Given the environment, policy shall be realistically constrained to be time-consistent. In a sticky-price economy, such heterogeneity gives rise to the possibility of one policy maker utilising (nominal) debt strategically to tie the hands of the other party, and influence the outcome of any future elections. This can give rise to a deficit bias, implying a sub-optimally high level of steady-state debt, and can also imply a sub-optimal response to shocks. The steady-state distortions and inflation bias this generates, combined with the volatility induced by the electoral cycle in a sticky-price environment, can significantly

The Inflation Bias under Calvo and Rotemberg Pricing.

New Keynesian models rely heavily on two workhorse models of nominal inertia - price contracts of random duration (Calvo, 1983) and price adjustment costs (Rotemberg, 1982) - to generate a meaningful role for monetary policy. These alternative descriptions of price stickiness are often used interchangeably since, to a first order of approximation they imply an isomorphic Phillips curve and, if the steady-state is efficient, identical objectives for the policy maker and as a result in an LQ framework, the same policy conclusions. In this paper we compute time-consistent optimal monetary policy in bench-mark New Keynesian models containing each form of price stickiness. Using global solution techniques we find that the inflation bias problem under Calvo contracts is significantly greater than under Rotemberg pricing, despite the fact that the former typically significant exhibits far greater welfare costs of inflation. The rates of inflation observed under this policy are non-trivial and suggest that the model can comfortably generate the rates of inflation at which the problematic issues highlighted in the trend inflation literature emerge, as well as the movements in trend inflation emphasized in empirical studies of the evolution of inflation. Finally, we consider the response to cost push shocks across both models and find these can also be significantly different. The choice of which form of nominal inertia to adopt is not innocuous.

Measuring intergenerational earnings mobility in Spain: a selection-bias-free approach

This paper analyses intergenerational earnings mobility in Spain correcting for different selection biases. We address the co-residence selection problem by combining information from two samples and using the two-sample two-stage least square estimator. We find a small decrease in elasticity when we move to younger cohorts. Furthermore, we find a higher correlation in the case of daughters than in the case of sons; however, when we consider the employment selection in the case of daughters, by adopting a Heckman-type correction method, the diference between sons and daughters disappears. By decomposing the sources of earnings elasticity across generations, we find that the correlation between child's and father's occupation is the most important component. Finally, quantile regressions estimates show that the influence of the father's earnings is greater when we move to the lower tail of the offspring's earnings distribution, especially in the case of daughters' earnings.

Education and the local equity bias around the world

Using a panel of 38 economies, over the period 2001 to 2010, we analyse the link between different facets of education and diversification in international portfolios. We find that university education, mathematical numeracy, in addition to financial skill, play an important role in reducing home bias. After separating countries according to their level of financial development, we find that less developed economies with more university graduates, or with higher level of mathematical numeracy, have lower level of local equity bias compared to more developed countries. We also find that the beneficial effect of education is more pronounced during the most recent financial crisis, especially for economies with less developed financial markets.

Selection bias and unobservable heterogeneity applied at the wage equation of European married women

This paper utilizes a panel data sample selection model to correct the selection in the analysis of longitudinal labor market data for married women in European countries. We estimate the female wage equation in a framework of unbalanced panel data models with sample selection. The wage equations of females have several potential sources of.

Sex-dependent selection on an autosomal melanic female ornament promotes the evolution of sex ratio bias.

Sex-dependent selection often leads to spectacularly different phenotypes in males and females. In species in which sexual dimorphism is not complete, it is unclear which benefits females and males derive from displaying a trait that is typical of the other sex. In barn owls (Tyto alba), females exhibit on average larger black eumelanic spots than males but members of the two sexes display this trait in the same range of possible values. In a 12-year study, we show that selection exerted on spot size directly or on genetically correlated traits strongly favoured females with large spots and weakly favoured males with small spots. Intense directional selection on females caused an increase in spot diameter in the population over the study period. This increase is due to a change in the autosomal genes underlying the expression of eumelanic spots but not of sex-linked genes. Female-like males produced more daughters than sons, while male-like females produced more sons than daughters when mated to a small-spotted male. These sex ratio biases appear adaptive because sons of male-like females and daughters of female-like males had above-average survival. This demonstrates that selection exerted against individuals displaying a trait that is typical of the other sex promoted the evolution of specific life history strategies that enhance their fitness. This may explain why in many organisms sexual dimorphism is often not complete.

How to avoid gender bias in classroom interaction? A cooperative learning experience

This project aims to analyse the kind of questions the teacher asks students in order to encourage them to participate in her classes. Consequently, the researcher has read relevant literature and has analysed a short excerpt of a video recorded during her first practicum. She has also analysed a number of activities carried out during her second practicum in order to find out if she had improved her questioning skills in the classroom

Amplification efficiency: linking baseline and bias in the analysis of quantitative PCR data.

Despite the central role of quantitative PCR (qPCR) in the quantification of mRNA transcripts, most analyses of qPCR data are still delegated to the software that comes with the qPCR apparatus. This is especially true for the handling of the fluorescence baseline. This article shows that baseline estimation errors are directly reflected in the observed PCR efficiency values and are thus propagated exponentially in the estimated starting concentrations as well as 'fold-difference' results. Because of the unknown origin and kinetics of the baseline fluorescence, the fluorescence values monitored in the initial cycles of the PCR reaction cannot be used to estimate a useful baseline value. An algorithm that estimates the baseline by reconstructing the log-linear phase downward from the early plateau phase of the PCR reaction was developed and shown to lead to very reproducible PCR efficiency values. PCR efficiency values were determined per sample by fitting a regression line to a subset of data points in the log-linear phase. The variability, as well as the bias, in qPCR results was significantly reduced when the mean of these PCR efficiencies per amplicon was used in the calculation of an estimate of the starting concentration per sample.