An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Calculation of product state distributions from resonance decay via Lanczos subspace filter diagonalization: Application to HO2

Resonance phenomena associated with the unimolecular dissociation of HO2 have been investigated quantum-mechanically by the Lanczos homogeneous filter diagonalization (LHFD) method. The calculated resonance energies, rates (widths), and product state distributions are compared to results from an autocorrelation function-based filter diagonalization (ACFFD) method. For calculating resonance wave functions via ACFFD, an analytical expression for the expansion coefficients of the modified Chebyshev polynomials is introduced. Both dissociation rates and product state distributions of O-2 show strong fluctuations, indicating the dissociation of HO2 is essentially irregular. (C) 2001 American Institute of Physics.

Guitar solo tracker

A motivação para este trabalho vem da necessidade que o autor tem em poder registar as notas tocadas na guitarra durante o processo de improviso. Quando o músico está a improvisar na guitarra, muitas vezes não se recorda das notas tocadas no momento, este trabalho trata o desenvolvimento de uma aplicação para guitarristas, que permita registar as notas tocadas na guitarra eléctrica ou clássica. O sinal é adquirido a partir da guitarra e processado com requisitos de tempo real na captura do sinal. As notas produzidas pela guitarra eléctrica, ligada ao computador, são representadas no formato de tablatura e/ou partitura. Para este efeito a aplicação capta o sinal proveniente da guitarra eléctrica a partir da placa de som do computador e utiliza algoritmos de detecção de frequência e algoritmos de estimação de duração de cada sinal para construir o registo das notas tocadas. A aplicação é desenvolvida numa perspectiva multi-plataforma, podendo ser executada em diferentes sistemas operativos Windows e Linux, usando ferramentas e bibliotecas de domínio público. Os resultados obtidos mostram a possibilidade de afinar a guitarra com valores de erro na ordem de 2 Hz em relação às frequências de afinação standard. A escrita da tablatura apresenta resultados satisfatórios, mas que podem ser melhorados. Para tal será necessário melhorar a implementação de técnicas de processamento do sinal bem como a comunicação entre processos para resolver os problemas encontrados nos testes efectuados.

A Spatial Econometrics Analysis for Road Accidents in Lisbon

This paper presents a spatial econometrics analysis for the number of road accidents with victims in the smallest administrative divisions of Lisbon, considering as a baseline a log-Poisson model for environmental factors. Spatial correlation on data is investigated for data alone and for the residuals of the baseline model without and with spatial-autocorrelated and spatial-lagged terms. In all the cases no spatial autocorrelation was detected.

Accessibility and Local Development: Interaction between Cross-border Accessibility and Local Development in Portugal and Spain

One of de EU major concerns is cohesion and cross-border regional development. Usually cross-border regions are less dynamic, acting as bottlenecks mainly in peripheral territories. This paper is focused on the Portuguese-Spanish border using socio-economic and accessibility data. It considers Spatial Econometrics to produce statistical evidence on the relationship between accessibility and development at a local scale. A pilot study is conducted on North and Center region using variables such as population age, graduation characteristics, migrations, unemployment and daily accessibility to main towns in future this evaluation will be applied to the entire cross-border area between Portugal and Spain.

Principal components and generalized linear modeling in the correlation between hospital admissions and air pollution

OBJECTIVE To analyze the association between concentrations of air pollutants and admissions for respiratory causes in children. METHODS Ecological time series study. Daily figures for hospital admissions of children aged < 6, and daily concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) were analyzed in the Região da Grande Vitória, ES, Southeastern Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2010. For statistical analysis, two techniques were combined: Poisson regression with generalized additive models and principal model component analysis. Those analysis techniques complemented each other and provided more significant estimates in the estimation of relative risk. The models were adjusted for temporal trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteorological factors and autocorrelation. In the final adjustment of the model, it was necessary to include models of the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (p, q) type in the residuals in order to eliminate the autocorrelation structures present in the components. RESULTS For every 10:49 μg/m3 increase (interquartile range) in levels of the pollutant PM10 there was a 3.0% increase in the relative risk estimated using the generalized additive model analysis of main components-seasonal autoregressive – while in the usual generalized additive model, the estimate was 2.0%. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the usual generalized additive model, in general, the proposed aspect of generalized additive model − principal component analysis, showed better results in estimating relative risk and quality of fit.

Spatial distribution and socioeconomic context of tuberculosis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

OBJECTIVE To analyze the spatial distribution of risk for tuberculosis and its socioeconomic determinants in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.METHODS An ecological study on the association between the mean incidence rate of tuberculosis from 2004 to 2006 and socioeconomic indicators of the Censo Demográfico (Demographic Census) of 2000. The unit of analysis was the home district registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (Notifiable Diseases Information System) of Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil. The rates were standardized by sex and age group, and smoothed by the empirical Bayes method. Spatial autocorrelation was evaluated by Moran’s I. Multiple linear regression models were studied and the appropriateness of incorporating the spatial component in modeling was evaluated.RESULTS We observed a higher risk of the disease in some neighborhoods of the port and north regions, as well as a high incidence in the slums of Rocinha and Vidigal, in the south region, and Cidade de Deus, in the west. The final model identified a positive association for the variables: percentage of permanent private households in which the head of the house earns three to five minimum wages; percentage of individual residents in the neighborhood; and percentage of people living in homes with more than two people per bedroom.CONCLUSIONS The spatial analysis identified areas of risk of tuberculosis incidence in the neighborhoods of the city of Rio de Janeiro and also found spatial dependence for the incidence of tuberculosis and some socioeconomic variables. However, the inclusion of the space component in the final model was not required during the modeling process.

On the relation between the fractional Brownian motion and the fractional derivatives

Physics Letters A, vol. 372; Issue 7

Mapping the quality of life experience in Alfama: a case study in Lisbon, Portugal.

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Using GIS to map the spatial and temporal occurrence of cholera epidemic in Camaroon

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Spatial Patterns and Irregularities of the electoral data: general elections in Canada

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Bacterial meningitis and living conditions

INTRODUCTION: Bacterial meningitis has great social relevance due to its ability to produce sequelae and cause death. It is most frequently found in developing countries, especially among children. Meningococcal meningitis occurs at a high frequency in populations with poor living conditions. This study describes the temporal evolution of bacterial meningitis in Salvador, Brazil, 1995-2009, and verifies the association between its spatial variation and the living conditions of the population. METHODS: This was an ecological study in which the areas of information were classified by an index of living conditions. It examined fluctuations using a trend curve, and the relationship between this index and the spatial distribution of meningitis was verified using simple linear regression. RESULTS: From 1995-2009, there were 3,456 confirmed cases of bacterial meningitis in Salvador. We observed a downward trend during this period, with a yearly incidence of 9.1 cases/100,000 population and fatality of 16.7%. Children aged <5 years old and male were more affected. There was no significant spatial autocorrelation or pattern in the spatial distribution of the disease. The areas with the worst living conditions had higher fatality from meningococcal disease (β = 0.0078117, p < 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Bacterial meningitis reaches all social strata; however, areas with poor living conditions have a greater proportion of cases that progress to death. This finding reflects the difficulties for ready access and poor quality of medical care faced by these populations.

Spatial distribution of disseminated histoplasmosis and AIDS co-infection in an endemic area of Northeastern Brazil

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: The spatial distribution of disseminated histoplasmosis (DH) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) co-infection in adult residents of Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil was evaluated. METHODS: Socio-demographic data for the DH/AIDS cases were obtained from a reference hospital, and socio-environmental indicators were obtained from an official Brazilian institute. Kernel analysis and local indicators of spatial autocorrelation (LISA) cluster maps were used to estimate the case density within the city. RESULTS: DH/AIDS cases were concentrated in the Northwestern and Southwestern peripheral areas of the city, related with low human development indices, but different from AIDS cases distribution. CONCLUSION: Risk factors other than AIDS infection must affect histoplasmosis development in this area.

Estudio de los modos de vida e historia biológica de las poblaciones humanas de la región central de argentina desde el registro bioarqueológico. Lifestyles and biological history of human populations of the central region of argentina from bioarchaeological record.

Se pretende aportar al estudio de la estructura, historia biológica y estilos de vida de las poblaciones que habitaron la región central de Argentina durante el Holoceno, desde una perspectiva que combina los aportes teóricos y metodológicos de la Genética del paisaje y la Bioarqueología. Interesa a) identificar barreras de diferenciación morfológica entre poblaciones, b) poner a prueba modelos poblacionales para explicar la variación observada e identificar las variables que contribuyan a dicha diferenciación, c) evaluar la congruencia de los resultados obtenidos, d) reconstruir los patrones de movilidad residencial de las poblaciones, e) estudiar sus patrones dietarios considerando diferencias temporales y espaciales, f) identificar indicadores de diversos tipos de estrés (nutricional, funcional), así como traumas, g) estudiar las historias tafonómicas del registro bioarqueológico regional, y h) proponer un modelo para explicar el poblamiento y la evolución local de las poblaciones que habitaron esta región, a partir de la información arqueológica y bioantropológica. Para el análisis de los patrones espaciales de variación biológica se trabajará a partir del registro de rasgos epigenéticos craneales, medidas lineales y datos obtenidos a partir de morfometría geométrica sobre fotografías en 2D sobre muestras arqueológicas procedentes de esta región y de otras regiones geográficas de la Argentina. Para el análisis de la estructura de la población se trabajará a partir del cálculo de la matriz R para datos morfológicos y sus estimaciones derivadas (distancia D², Fst, coordenadas principales) y la aplicación del modelo de Harpending y Ward. Desde la genética del paisaje, se realizarán análisis de autocorrelación espacial, barreras genéticas y análisis geoestadísticos (kriging). Para el estudio de los modos de vida a partir del registro bioarqueológico se relevarán patologías dento-alveolares y alteraciones vinculadas con la salud bucal tales como desgaste dental –a nivel micro y macroscópico- caries, abscesos, pérdidas dentales antemortem, cálculos, hipoplasias, marcadores esqueletales de salud y lesiones traumáticas. Se analizarán isótopos estables (δ13C, δ15N, 86Sr y 87Sr) en restos óseos humanos de diversos sitios arqueológicos con el objetivo de reconstruir patrones dietarios y analizar la movilidad residencial y migración de las poblaciones. Paralelamente, se establecerán procedimientos de control tafonómico de los restos óseos, y se harán análisis específicos para estudiar las historias tafonómicas y evaluar el grado de integridad de los contextos de depositación y de las colecciones en general. Estimamos que el análisis de los patrones espaciales y temporales de variabilidad morfológica craneofacial, así como el estudio de las dietas a partir de información isotópica y bioarqueológica, de las migraciones y la movilidad residencial de las poblaciones a partir de isótopos de estroncio, la reconstrucción de comportamientos y actividades cotidianas a partir de marcadores de estrés músculo-esqueletal, en un marco cronológico y espacial constituye un aporte novedoso y eficaz que permitirá incrementar de manera substancial la información sobre la evolución de las poblaciones originarias del centro del territorio argentino. The aim of this project is to study the structure, biological history and lifestyles of the people that inhabitated the central region of Argentina during the Holocene, from a perspective that combines theoretical and methodological contributions of Landscape Genetics and Bioarchaeology. To analyze the spatial patterns of biological variation we consider epigenetic cranial traits, linear measurements and data obtained from geometric morphometric on 2D photographs. Morphological variation will be focused on landscape genetics (autocorrelation, genetic barriers and geostatistical analysis –kriging-) and population structure (matrix R, D², Fst, principal coordinates, Harpendig and Ward model). For the study of lifestyles from bioarchaeological record we consider alveolar pathologies and disorders related to oral health such as tooth wear, micro and macroscopic level, caries, abscesses, antemortem tooth loss, hypoplasia, markers skeletal health and traumatic injuries, as well as taphonomic processes. Stable isotopes will be analyzed (δ13C, d15N, 86Sr and 87Sr) in human skeletal remains from various archaeological sites in order to reconstruct and analyze dietary patterns of residential mobility and migration of populations. It will be established procedures of taphonomic control on skeletal remains, analysis to study taphonomic histories and assess the degree of completeness of depositional context and collection, in general terms. We consider that analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of variability in craniofacial morphology and the study of health and diets from isotopic and bioarchaeological data, migration and residential mobility patterns from strontium isotopes, as well as activity patterns from stress markers is a novel and effective contribution that will substantially increase the information about the local evolution of populations that inhabitated the center of Argentina.