Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

STUDY OF THE EQUATORIAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIXING LAYER USING A ONE-DIMENSIONAL TURBULENCE MODEL

The General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) is applied to the diagnostic turbulence field of the mixing layer (ML) over the equatorial region of the Atlantic Ocean. Two situations were investigated: rainy and dry seasons, defined, respectively, by the presence of the intertropical convergence zone and by its northward displacement. Simulations were carried out using data from a PIRATA buoy located on the equator at 23 degrees W to compute surface turbulent fluxes and from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project to close the surface radiation balance. A data assimilation scheme was used as a surrogate for the physical effects not present in the one-dimensional model. In the rainy season, results show that the ML is shallower due to the weaker surface stress and stronger stable stratification; the maximum ML depth reached during this season is around 15 m, with an averaged diurnal variation of 7 m depth. In the dry season, the stronger surface stress and the enhanced surface heat balance components enable higher mechanical production of turbulent kinetic energy and, at night, the buoyancy acts also enhancing turbulence in the first meters of depth, characterizing a deeper ML, reaching around 60 m and presenting an average diurnal variation of 30 m.

Exchange terms in the quark-meson coupling model

In this talk we report on recent progress in implementing exchange terms in the quark-meson coupling model. Exchange effects are related to the Pauli exclusion principle. We discuss exchange effects at the nucleon level and at the quark level. We also address the incorporation of chiral symmetry and Delta degrees of freedom in the model.

Enhancement of Nematic Order and Global Phase Diagram of a Lattice Model for Coupled Nematic Systems

We use an infinite-range Maier-Saupe model, with two sets of local quadrupolar variables and restricted orientations, to investigate the global phase diagram of a coupled system of two nematic subsystems. The free energy and the equations of state are exactly calculated by standard techniques of statistical mechanics. The nematic-isotropic transition temperature of system A increases with both the interaction energy among mesogens of system B, and the two-subsystem coupling J. This enhancement of the nematic phase is manifested in a global phase diagram in terms of the interaction parameters and the temperature T. We make some comments on the connections of these results with experimental findings for a system of diluted ferroelectric nanoparticles embedded in a nematic liquid-crystalline environment.

Origin and variability of PM10 and atmospheric radiotracers at the WMO-GAW station of Mt. Cimone (1998-2011) and in the central Po Valley

Particulate matter is one of the main atmospheric pollutants, with a great chemical-environmental relevance. Improving knowledge of the sources of particulate matter and of their apportionment is needed to handle and fulfill the legislation regarding this pollutant, to support further development of air policy as well as air pollution management. Various instruments have been used to understand the sources of particulate matter and atmospheric radiotracers at the site of Mt. Cimone (44.18° N, 10.7° E, 2165 m asl), hosting a global WMO-GAW station. Thanks to its characteristics, this location is suitable investigate the regional and long-range transport of polluted air masses on the background Southern-Europe free-troposphere. In particular, PM10 data sampled at the station in the period 1998-2011 were analyzed in the framework of the main meteorological and territorial features. A receptor model based on back trajectories was applied to study the source regions of particulate matter. Simultaneous measurements of atmospheric radionuclides Pb-210 and Be-7 acquired together with PM10 have also been analysed to acquire a better understanding of vertical and horizontal transports able to affect atmospheric composition. Seasonal variations of atmospheric radiotracers have been studied both analysing the long-term time series acquired at the measurement site as well as by means of a state-of-the-art global 3-D chemistry and transport model. Advection patterns characterizing the circulation at the site have been identified by means of clusters of back-trajectories. Finally, the results of a source apportionment study of particulate matter carried on in a midsize town of the Po Valley (actually recognised as one of the most polluted European regions) are reported. An approach exploiting different techniques, and in particular different kinds of models, successfully achieved a characterization of the processes/sources of particulate matter at the two sites, and of atmospheric radiotracers at the site of Mt. Cimone.

Comparative assessment of global irradiation from a satellite estimate model (CM SAF) and on-ground measurements (SIAR): a Spanish case study

An analysis and comparison of daily and yearly solar irradiation from the satellite CM SAF database and a set of 301 stations from the Spanish SIAR network is performed using data of 2010 and 2011. This analysis is completed with the comparison of the estimations of effective irradiation incident on three different tilted planes (fixed, two axis tracking, north-south hori- zontal axis) using irradiation from these two data sources. Finally, a new map of yearly values of irradiation both on the horizontal plane and on inclined planes is produced mixing both sources with geostatistical techniques (kriging with external drift, KED) The Mean Absolute Difference (MAD) between CM SAF and SIAR is approximately 4% for the irradiation on the horizontal plane and is comprised between 5% and 6% for the irradiation incident on the inclined planes. The MAD between KED and SIAR, and KED and CM SAF is approximately 3% for the irradiation on the horizontal plane and is comprised between 3% and 4% for the irradiation incident on the inclined planes. The methods have been implemented using free software, available as supplementary ma- terial, and the data sources are freely available without restrictions.

Comparative assessment of global irradiation from a satellite estimate model (CM SAF) and on-ground measurements (SIAR): a Spanish case study

An analysis and comparison of daily and yearly solar irradiation from the satellite CM SAF database and a set of 301 stations from the Spanish SIAR network is performed using data of 2010 and 2011. This analysis is completed with the comparison of the estimations of effective irradiation incident on three different tilted planes (fixed, two axis tracking, north-south hori- zontal axis) using irradiation from these two data sources. Finally, a new map of yearly values of irradiation both on the horizontal plane and on inclined planes is produced mixing both sources with geostatistical techniques (kriging with external drift, KED) The Mean Absolute Difference (MAD) between CM SAF and SIAR is approximately 4% for the irradiation on the horizontal plane and is comprised between 5% and 6% for the irradiation incident on the inclined planes. The MAD between KED and SIAR, and KED and CM SAF is approximately 3% for the irradiation on the horizontal plane and is comprised between 3% and 4% for the irradiation incident on the inclined planes. The methods have been implemented using free software, available as supplementary ma- terial, and the data sources are freely available without restrictions.

Emulation of an OWC Ocean Energy Plant With PMSG and Irregular Wave Model

Ocean energy is a promising resource for renewable electricity generation that presents many advantages, such as being more predictable than wind energy, but also some disadvantages such as large and slow amplitude variations in the generated power. This paper presents a hardware-in-the-loop prototype that allows the study of the electric power profile generated by a wave power plant based on the oscillating water column (OWC) principle. In particular, it facilitates the development of new solutions to improve the intermittent profile of the power fed into the grid or the test of the OWC behavior when facing a voltage dip. Also, to obtain a more realistic model behavior, statistical models of real waves have been implemented.

Semantic and organization considerations in database conceptual modelling : the Semantic Conceptual Organizational Model (SECOM)

This thesis presents a new approach to designing large organizational databases. The approach emphasizes the need for a holistic approach to the design process. The development of the proposed approach was based on a comprehensive examination of the issues of relevance to the design and utilization of databases. Such issues include conceptual modelling, organization theory, and semantic theory. The conceptual modelling approach presented in this thesis is developed over three design stages, or model perspectives. In the semantic perspective, concept definitions were developed based on established semantic principles. Such definitions rely on meaning - provided by intension and extension - to determine intrinsic conceptual definitions. A tool, called meaning-based classification (MBC), is devised to classify concepts based on meaning. Concept classes are then integrated using concept definitions and a set of semantic relations which rely on concept content and form. In the application perspective, relationships are semantically defined according to the application environment. Relationship definitions include explicit relationship properties and constraints. The organization perspective introduces a new set of relations specifically developed to maintain conformity of conceptual abstractions with the nature of information abstractions implied by user requirements throughout the organization. Such relations are based on the stratification of work hierarchies, defined elsewhere in the thesis. Finally, an example of an application of the proposed approach is presented to illustrate the applicability and practicality of the modelling approach.

Volatile organic compounds at the air-sea interface : gas exchange rates, oceanic emissions and the effect of ocean acidification

Oceans are key sources and sinks in the global budgets of significant atmospheric trace gases, termed Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs). Despite their low concentrations, these species have an important role in the atmosphere, influencing ozone photochemistry and aerosol physics. Surprisingly, little work has been done on assessing their emissions or transport mechanisms and rates between ocean and atmosphere, all of which are important when modelling the atmosphere accurately.rnA new Needle Trap Device (NTD) - GC-MS method was developed for the effective sampling and analysis of VOCs in seawater. Good repeatability (RSDs <16 %), linearity (R2 = 0.96 - 0.99) and limits of detection in the range of pM were obtained for DMS, isoprene, benzene, toluene, p-xylene, (+)-α-pinene and (-)-α-pinene. Laboratory evaluation and subsequent field application indicated that the proposed method can be used successfully in place of the more usually applied extraction techniques (P&T, SPME) to extend the suite of species typically measured in the ocean and improve detection limits. rnDuring a mesocosm CO2 enrichment study, DMS, isoprene and α-pinene were identified and quantified in seawater samples, using the above mentioned method. Based on correlations with available biological datasets, the effects of ocean acidification as well as possible ocean biological sources were investigated for all examined compounds. Future ocean's acidity was shown to decrease oceanic DMS production, possibly impact isoprene emissions but not affect the production of α-pinene. rnIn a separate activity, ocean - atmosphere interactions were simulated in a large scale wind-wave canal facility, in order to investigate the gas exchange process and its controlling mechanisms. Air-water exchange rates of 14 chemical species (of which 11 VOCs) spanning a wide range of solubility (dimensionless solubility, α = 0:4 to 5470) and diffusivity (Schmidt number in water, Scw = 594 to 1194) were obtained under various turbulent (wind speed at ten meters height, u10 = 0:8 to 15ms-1) and surfactant modulated (two different sized Triton X-100 layers) surface conditions. Reliable and reproducible total gas transfer velocities were obtained and the derived values and trends were comparable to previous investigations. Through this study, a much better and more comprehensive understanding of the gas exchange process was accomplished. The role of friction velocity, uw* and mean square slope, σs2 in defining phenomena such as waves and wave breaking, near surface turbulence, bubbles and surface films was recognized as very significant. uw* was determined as the ideal turbulent parameter while σs2 described best the related surface conditions. A combination of both uw* and σs2 variables, was found to reproduce faithfully the air-water gas exchange process. rnA Total Transfer Velocity (TTV) model provided by a compilation of 14 tracers and a combination of both uw* and σs2 parameters, is proposed for the first time. Through the proposed TTV parameterization, a new physical perspective is presented which provides an accurate TTV for any tracer within the examined solubility range. rnThe development of such a comprehensive air-sea gas exchange parameterization represents a highly useful tool for regional and global models, providing accurate total transfer velocity estimations for any tracer and any sea-surface status, simplifying the calculation process and eliminating inevitable calculation uncertainty connected with the selection or combination of different parameterizations.rnrn

iMarNet: an ocean biogeochemistry model intercomparison project within a common physical ocean modelling framework

Ocean biogeochemistry (OBGC) models span a wide variety of complexities, including highly simplified nutrient-restoring schemes, nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus (NPZD) models that crudely represent the marine biota, models that represent a broader trophic structure by grouping organisms as plankton functional types (PFTs) based on their biogeochemical role (dynamic green ocean models) and ecosystem models that group organisms by ecological function and trait. OBGC models are now integral components of Earth system models (ESMs), but they compete for computing resources with higher resolution dynamical setups and with other components such as atmospheric chemistry and terrestrial vegetation schemes. As such, the choice of OBGC in ESMs needs to balance model complexity and realism alongside relative computing cost. Here we present an intercomparison of six OBGC models that were candidates for implementation within the next UK Earth system model (UKESM1). The models cover a large range of biological complexity (from 7 to 57 tracers) but all include representations of at least the nitrogen, carbon, alkalinity and oxygen cycles. Each OBGC model was coupled to the ocean general circulation model Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and results from physically identical hindcast simulations were compared. Model skill was evaluated for biogeochemical metrics of global-scale bulk properties using conventional statistical techniques. The computing cost of each model was also measured in standardised tests run at two resource levels. No model is shown to consistently outperform all other models across all metrics. Nonetheless, the simpler models are broadly closer to observations across a number of fields and thus offer a high-efficiency option for ESMs that prioritise high-resolution climate dynamics. However, simpler models provide limited insight into more complex marine biogeochemical processes and ecosystem pathways, and a parallel approach of low-resolution climate dynamics and high-complexity biogeochemistry is desirable in order to provide additional insights into biogeochemistry–climate interactions.

Progress in satellite remote sensing for studying physical processes at the ocean surface and its borders with the atmosphere and sea-ice

Physical oceanography is the study of physical conditions, processes and variables within the ocean, including temperature-salinity distributions, mixing of the water column, waves, tides, currents, and air-sea interaction processes. Here we provide a critical review of how satellite sensors are being used to study physical oceanography processes at the ocean surface and its borders with the atmosphere and sea-ice. The paper begins by describing the main sensor types that are used to observe the oceans (visible, thermal infrared and microwave) and the specific observations that each of these sensor types can provide. We then present a critical review of how these sensors and observations are being used to study i) ocean surface currents, ii) storm surges, iii) sea-ice, iv) atmosphere-ocean gas exchange and v) surface heat fluxes via phytoplankton. Exciting advances include the use of multiple sensors in synergy to observe temporally varying Arctic sea-ice volume, atmosphere- ocean gas fluxes, and the potential for 4 dimensional water circulation observations. For each of these applications we explain their relevance to society, review recent advances and capability, and provide a forward look at future prospects and opportunities. We then more generally discuss future opportunities for oceanography-focussed remote-sensing, which includes the unique European Union Copernicus programme, the potential of the International Space Station and commercial miniature satellites. The increasing availability of global satellite remote-sensing observations means that we are now entering an exciting period for oceanography. The easy access to these high quality data and the continued development of novel platforms is likely to drive further advances in remote sensing of the ocean and atmospheric systems.