Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassifi cation. Findings Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5–2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6–40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7–1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1–1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued eff orts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.

Evaluation of a Quality Improvement (QI) Intervention for Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health (MNCH) in Colombia: The Mil Días Intervention of SINERGIAS in the Department of Bolívar

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Workforce Patterns and the Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV Option B Cascade in Côte d'Ivoire

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Evaluating the efficiency of community-based HIV testing and counseling strategies in sub-Saharan Africa

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Factors Influencing Children’s Full Immunization in Ethiopia

Child morbidity and mortality in Ethiopia is mainly due to vaccine preventable diseases. Although numerous interventions have been made since the 1980’s to increase vaccination coverage, the level of full immunization is low in the country. This study examines factors influencing children’s full immunization based on data on 1927 children aged 12-23 months extracted from the 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. Multinomial logistic regression model was fitted to identify predictors of full immunization. The result shows that only 24.3% of the children were fully immunized. There was significant difference between regions in immunization coverage in which Tigray, Dire Dawa, and Addis Ababa performed well. In Oromia, Afar, Somali, Benishangul-Gumuz, and Gambela regions, the likelihood of children’s full immunization was significantly lower. Children born to mothers living in households with better socio-economic status, with frequent access to media, and who visit health facilities for antenatal care were more likely to be fully immunized. The results imply the importance of narrowing regional differences, improving women’s socio-economic status and utilization of antenatal care services, and strengthening culture-sensitive media campaign as a means of achieving full immunization of all children

Predictors of maternal mortality among critically ill obstetric patients

Aim Evaluation of the predictors of maternal mortality among critically ill obstetric patients managed at the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods A case control study to evaluate the predictors of maternal mortality among critically ill obstetric patients managed at the intensive care unit (ICU) of the University of Ilorin Teaching Hospital, Ilorin, Nigeria from 1st January 2010 to 30th June 2013. Participants were critically ill obstetric patients who were admitted and managed at the ICU during the study period. Subjects were those who died while controls were age and parity matched survivors. Statistical analysis was with SPSS-20 to determine chi square, Cox-regression and odds ratio; p value < 0.05 was significant. Results The mean age of subjects and controls were 28.92 ± 5.09 versus 29.44 ± 5.74 (p = 0.736), the level of education was higher among controls (p = 0.048) while more subjects were of low social class (p = 0.321), did not have antenatal care (p = 0.131) and had partners with lower level of education (p = 0.156) compared to controls. The two leading indications for admission among subjects and controls were massive postpartum haemorrhage and severe preeclampsia or eclampsia. The mean duration of admission was higher among controls (3.32 ± 2.46 versus 3.00 ± 2.58; p = 0.656) while the mean cost of ICU care was higher among the subjects (p = 0.472). The statistical significant predictors of maternal deaths were the patient’s level of education, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, oxygen saturation, multiple organ failure at ICU admission and the need for mechanical ventilation or inotrophic drugs after admission. Conclusion The clinical state at ICU admission of the critically ill obstetric patients is the major outcome determinant. Therefore, early recognition of the need for ICU care, adequate pre-ICU admission supportive care and prompt transfer will improve the outcome.

Preeclampsia prevention: a case-control study nested in a cohort

Introduction: Preeclampsia is the main complication of pregnancy in developing countries. Calcium starting at 14 weeks of pregnancy is indicated to prevent the disease. Recent advances in prevention of preeclampsia endorse the addition of conjugated linoleic acid. Objective: To estimate the protective effect from calcium alone, compared to calcium plus conjugated linoleic acid in nulliparous women at risk of preeclampsia. Methods: A case-control design nested in the cohort of nulliparous women attending antenatal care from 2010 to 2014. The clinical histories of 387 cases of preeclampsia were compared with 1,054 normotensive controls. The exposure was prescriptions for calcium alone, the first period, or calcium plus conjugated linoleic acid, the second period, from 12 to 16 weeks of gestational age to labor. Confounding variables were controlled, allowing only nulliparous women into the study and stratifying by age, education and ethnic group. Results: The average age was 26.4 yrs old (range= 13-45), 85% from mixed ethnic backgrounds and with high school education. There were no differences between women who received calcium carbonate and those who did not (OR= 0.96; 95% CI= 0.73–1.27). The group of adolescents (13 to 18 yrs old) in the calcium plus conjugated linoleic acid was protected for preeclampsia (OR= 0.00; 95% CI= 0.00–0.44) independent of the confounder variables. Conclusions: 1. Calcium supplementation during pregnancy did not have preventive effects on preeclampsia. 2. Calcium plus Conjugated Linoleic acid provided to adolescents was observed to have preventive effect on Preeclampsia.

Preeclampsia prevention: a case-control study nested in the cohort

Introduction: Preeclampsia is the main complication of pregnancy in developing countries. Calcium starting at 14 weeks of pregnancy is indicated to prevent the disease. Recent advances in prevention of preeclampsia endorse the addition of conjugated linoleic acid. Objective: To estimate the protective effect from calcium alone, compared to calcium plus conjugated linoleic acid in nulliparous women at risk of preeclampsia. Methods: A case-control design nested in the cohort of nulliparous women attending antenatal care from 2010 to 2014. The clinical histories of 387 cases of preeclampsia were compared with 1,054 normotensive controls. The exposure was prescriptions for calcium alone, the first period, or calcium plus conjugated linoleic acid, the second period, from 12 to 16 weeks of gestational age to labor. Confounding variables were controlled, allowing only nulliparous women into the study and stratifying by age, education and ethnic group. Results: The average age was 26.4 yrs old (range= 13-45), 85% from mixed ethnic backgrounds and with high school education. There were no differences between women who received calcium carbonate and those who did not (OR= 0.96; 95% IC= 0.73–1.27). The group of adolescents (13 to 18 yrs old) in the calcium plus conjugated linoleic acid was protected for preeclampsia (OR= 0.00; 95% CI= 0.00–0.44) independent of the confounder variables. Conclusions: 1. Calcium supplementation during pregnancy did not have preventive effects on preeclampsia. 2. Calcium plus Conjugated Linoleic acid provided to adolescents was observed to have preventive effect on Preeclampsia.

Asociación entre factores socioeconómicos y hábitos de limpieza en gestantes de Usaquén y Kennedy de la ciudad de Bogotá

Introducción: Actualmente existe un reconocimiento creciente de que el hogar desempeña un papel importante en varias cuestiones de higiene y salud pública. El ambiente del hogar ha sido implicado como una fuente importante de propagación de enfermedades infecciosas, y la intervención de las medidas de higiene, implican una reducción de la incidencia, especialmente en los países menos desarrollados y en poblaciones vulnerables como las gestantes. Objetivo: Evaluar la asociación entre la práctica de hábitos higiénicos de las gestantes estrato 1 y 2 de las localidades de Usaquén y Kennedy en relación a sus factores socioeconómicos. Métodos: Estudio Analítico de Corte transversal. Se realizó en las gestantes de los estratos 1 y 2 de las localidades de Usaquén y Kennedy en la ciudad de Bogotá. Se recolectaron datos referentes a factores socioeconómicos y hábitos de higiene de 141 gestantes a través de la aplicación de una encuesta. Los datos obtenidos de las variables de interés fueron procesados a través de análisis multivariado y regresión logística paramétrica y no paramétrica, con el fin de establecer si existía asociación o no entre las mismas. Resultados: Existe asociación entre el número de Nacidos vivos y la presencia de plagas (p=0.034 y Coeficiente de correlación: -1.253). Así mismo se encontró asociación habitar en cuartos rentados y la limpieza de casa general (p=0.008 y Coeficiente de correlación: 0.480). Existe una asociación entre la variable edad y el lavado de frutas (p=0.041 y Coeficiente de correlación: 0.384). Conclusiones: Existe relación entre los hábitos higiénicos y los factores socioeconómicos de las gestantes estudiadas. Existe un mayor hábito de lavado de frutas antes de ser consumidas en gestantes de mayor edad. Adicional a esto se evidencia a mayor número de hijos hay menor presencia de plagas en el hogar y mayor limpieza del hogar. Solo en un pequeño porcentaje de los hogares se evidencio una óptima limpieza, por lo cual se deben plantear más políticas para mejorar la higiene de los mismos ya que los datos reportados permanecen subóptimos en la población seleccionada.

Salud sexual y reproductiva: aspectos de análisis para el departamento de Casanare

La sexualidad y la reproducción están íntimamente ligadas a la calidad de vida, tanto en el ámbito de lo individual como de lo social, por tanto la salud sexual y reproductiva representa un componente esencial para la evaluación de desarrollo de un país, y un tema prioritario en la agenda política mundial y nacional como lo evidencian los objetivos del milenio y de desarrollo sostenible; aunque el país ha dado enormes avances en el tema, aun se presentan grandes retos para el logro y goce efectivo de los derechos sexuales y reproductivos en la población. El objetivo del presente estudio es describir y analizar algunos indicadores de salud sexual y reproductiva en el departamento de Casanare, en el periodo 2008- 2015. Como metodología se usó un diseño descriptivo trasversal, los datos fueron tomados de Sivigila departamental, Estadísticas DANE y del Instituto Nacional de Salud. Se usó SPSS versión 18 y Excel para el análisis de los datos. Como resultados se encontraron altas tasas de prevalencia e incidencia para VIH, sífilis gestacional, y fecundidad en adolescentes en el departamento de Casanare que sobrepasan los indicadores nacionales y presentan tendencia creciente

Paper and electronic antenatal records: What do women and health care providers tell us about their use?

The antenatal paper hand-held record (PHR) has been used extensively in general practice (GP) shared-care management of pregnant women, but recently the antenatal electronic health record (EHR) was introduced. This study aimed to examine the experiences of women and health care providers who use the PHR and the EHR, and find out the relative role of these records in the integration of care. Purposive homogenous samples of women and health care providers were interviewed as users of the PHR in phase 1 and the EHR in phase 2 of the study. Qualitative data were collected via interview with women and GPs and focus groups held with hospital health care providers. Interviews were coded manually and analysed using qualitative content analysis. Fifteen women participated in phase 1 and 12 in phase 2. Seventeen GPs participated in phase 1 and 15 in phase 2. Five focus groups with hospital health care providers were conducted in each phase. Results were categorised into four themes: 1. Record purpose; 2. Perception of the record; 3. Content of the record, and; 4. Sharing information in the record. Both women and health care providers were familiar with the PHR, but identified that some information was missing or not utilised well, and reported underuse of the EHR. The study identified continued widespread use of the PHR and several issues concerning the use of the EHR. An improvement in the strategic implementation of the EHR is suggested as a mechanism to facilitate its wider adoption.

Antenatal depression strongly predicts postnatal depression in primary health care

Objective: To estimate the association between antenatal and postnatal depression and to examine the role of socioeconomic conditions in the risk of postnatal depression. Methods: A prospective cohort study, conducted between May 2005 and January 2006, with 831 pregnant women recruited from primary care clinics in the public sector in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The presence of antenatal and postnatal depression was measured with the Self Report Questionnaire (SRQ-20). Sociodemographic and socioeconomic characteristics and obstetric information were obtained through a questionnaire. Crude and adjusted risk ratios (RR), with 95% CI, were calculated using a Poisson regression. Results: The prevalence of postnatal depressive symptoms was 31.2% (95% CI: 27.8-34.8%). Among the 219 mothers who had depressive symptoms, nearly 50% had already shown depressive symptoms during pregnancy. Women who had antenatal depression were 2.4 times more likely to present with postnatal depression than were women who did not have such symptoms during pregnancy. In the multivariate analysis, higher scores for assets (RR: 0.76, 95% CI 0.61-0.96), higher education (RR: 0.75 95% CI 0.59-0.96), daily contact with neighbors (RR: 0.68, 95% CI 0.51-0.90) and antenatal depression (RR: 2.44, 95% CI 1.93-3.08) remained independently associated with postnatal depression. Conclusions: Antenatal and postnatal depression are highly prevalent in the primary care setting.

Parent decisions regarding paid work and care of the child

Australia has witnessed a continual increase in maternal employment over the past two decades, which has placed focus on child care- its effects on the child and on early childhood education and care policy and provision. The engagement of women in the paid workforce contributes to national economic development, and is recognised in government policy incentives such as cash subsidies and tax relief for child care fees. These incentives are targeted towards mothers, to encourage them to engage in paid work. Making a contribution to the family’s economy and to a mother’s economic self sufficiency are two key drivers for women’s engagement in satisfying paid work. Many women also seek to maintain a personal investment in the development of their career, simultaneously ensuring that the child is experiencing suitable care. Policies that support women’s choices for satisfying workforce engagement and care arrangements are prudent for ensuring productivity of the economy as well as for enhancing the wellbeing of parents and children (OECD, 2007). Policies that provide family friendly employment arrangements, paid parental leave, and child care support, directly affect maternal employment decisions. Availability of family friendly employment policies is viewed as one way to not only promote gender equity in employment opportunities but also support the wellbeing of children and families (OECD, 2007). Yet there are not comprehensive and coherent policies on work and family in Australia. Australia is due to implement its first paid parental leave scheme in January, 2011. At the time of the data collection of this research, June 2007 to December 2008, Australia had no statutory provision for paid parental leave. To date, most research has focused on the consequences of paid work and care decisions made by women. Far less is known about the processes of decision-making and reasons underlying women’s choices. Investigation of what is most salient for women as they make decisions regarding engagement in paid work, and care for their child is important in order to inform policy and practices related to parental leave, family friendly employment and care for the child. This prospective longitudinal research was of 124 Australian expectant first-time mothers who completed questionnaires in their third trimester of pregnancy, and again at six and twelve months postpartum. First-time expectant mothers' decisions regarding engaging in paid work and selecting care for their child represent those of a group who are invested in motherhood and have usually had direct experience of engaging in paid work. They therefore provide an important insight into society’s idealised views about motherhood and the emotional and social uncertainty of making personal decisions where the consequences of such decisions are unknown. These decisions reflect public beliefs about the role of women in contributing to the country’s productivity and decisions about providing for the economic and emotional care needs of their family. As so little is known about the reasoning and processes of decision-making of women’s choices regarding paid work and care of the child this research was designed to capture expectant first-time mother’s preferred options for engaging in paid work and the care of their child, and investigate their actual decisions made at six and 12 months postpartum. To capture preferred options, decisions and outcomes of decisions regarding paid work and care of the child a prospective longitudinal research design was utilised. This design had three important components that addressed key limitations in the extant literature. First the research commenced in pregnancy in order to investigate preferences and beliefs about paid work and care and to examine baseline data that may influence decisions made as the women returned to paid work. Second the research involved longitudinal tracking from the antenatal time point to six and 12 months postpartum in order to identify the influences on decisions made. Third the research measured outcomes of the decisions made at each time point. This research examined the intentions, preferences, beliefs, influences, and outcomes of the decisions about engagement in paid work and choice of care. The analyses examined factors predicting return to paid work, the timing of return and extent of engagement in paid work; the care for the child; satisfaction with paid work; satisfaction with care for the child, motherhood and fulfilment; and maternal wellbeing at six and 12 months postpartum. The factors of interest were both rational/economic (availability and extent of paid and unpaid maternity leave; flexible work patterns) and emotional/affective (career satisfaction, investment in motherhood, and concern with quality of care for the child). Results indicated a group preference, and realisation for, return to paid work within the first year after the birth of a child but with reduction in hours to part-time. Most women saw paid work not only as a source of income but also as source of personal satisfaction. There were four key themes arising from this research. First, the women strived to feel emotionally secure when deciding about engaging in paid work and care of the child. To achieve emotional security women made their decisions for paid work and care of the child differently. A woman’s decision for maternal employment is a function of her personal beliefs, preferences and context regarding paid work and care of the child. She adjusts her established work identity with her new identity as a mother. The second key theme from this research is that the women made their decisions for maternal employment in response to their personal context and there were different levels of opportunities between the women’s choices. There is inequity of entitlement regarding work conditions associated with a woman’s education level. This has implications for the woman’s engagement in paid work, and her child’s health and wellbeing. The third key theme is that the quality of the child’s care mattered to the women in the research. They preferred care provided by parents and/or relatives more than any other types of care. The fourth key theme identified that satisfaction and wellbeing outcomes experienced as a result of maternal employment decisions were a complex interaction between multiple factors that change across time with the ongoing development of the mother’s identity, and the development of the child. The implications for policy within Australia are that the employment of mothers in the workforce necessitates that non-parental care becomes a public concern, where there is universal access to good quality affordable care for every child, not just for those who can afford it. This is equitable and represents real choice while supporting the rights of the child (Thorpe, Cloney & Tayler, 2010), protecting and promoting the public interest (Cleveland & Krashinsky, 2010). Children’s health and wellbeing will be supported (Moore & Oberklaid, 2010) while children are in non-parental care, and they will be exposed to environments and experiences that support their learning and development. The significant design of the research enabled the trajectories of first-time expectant women to be tracked from the antenatal point to 12 months postpartum. But there were limitations: the small sample size, the over-representation of the sample being highly educated and the nature of a longitudinal research that is set within the economic, social and political context at that time. These limitations are discussed in relation to suggestions for future research.

Women from refugee backgrounds and their experiences of attending a specialist antenatal clinic : narratives from an Australian setting

Problem: In response to an identified need, a specialist antenatal clinic for women from refugee backgrounds was introduced in 2008, with an evaluation planned and completed in 2010. Question: Can maternity care experiences for women from refugee backgrounds, attending a specialist antenatal clinic in a tertiary Australian public hospital, be improved? Methods: The evaluation employed mixed methods, generating qualitative and quantitative data from two hospital databases, a chart audit, surveys and interviews with service users, providers and stakeholders. Contributions were received from 202 participants. Findings: The clinic was highly regarded by all participants. Continuity of care throughout the antenatal period was particularly valued by newly arrived women as it afforded them security and support to negotiate an unfamiliar Western maternity system. Positive experiences decreased however; as women transitioned from the clinic to labour and postnatal wards where they reported that their traditional birthing and recuperative practices were often interrupted by the imposition of Western biomedical notions of appropriate care. The centrally located clinic was problematic, frequently requiring complex travel arrangements. Appointment schedules often impacted negatively on traditional spousal and family obligations. Conclusions: Providing comprehensive and culturally responsive maternity care for women from refugee backgrounds is achievable, however it is also resource intensive. The production of translated information which is high quality in terms of production and content, whilst also taking account of languages which are only rarely encountered, is problematic. Cultural competency programmes for staff, ideally online, require regular updating in light of new knowledge and changing political sensitivities.

Beyond the hospital door : a retrospective, cohort study of associations between birthing in the public or private sector and women’s postpartum care

Background In Australia, maternity care is available through universal coverage and a parallel, competitive private health insurance system. Differences between sectors in antenatal and intrapartum care and associated outcomes are well documented but few studies have investigated differences in postpartum care following hospital discharge and their impact on maternal satisfaction and confidence. Methods Women who birthed in Queensland, Australia from February to May 2010 were mailed a self-report survey 4 months postpartum. Regression analysis was used to determine associations between sector of birth and postpartum care, and whether postpartum care experiences explained sector differences in postpartum well-being (satisfaction, parenting confidence and feeling depressed). Results Women who birthed in the public sector had higher odds of health professional contact in the first 10 days post-discharge and satisfaction with the amount of postpartum care. After adjusting for demographic and postpartum contact variables, sector of birth no longer had an impact on satisfaction (AOR 0.95, 99% CI 0.78-1.31), but any form of health professional contact did. Women who had a care provider’s 24 hour contact details had higher odds of being satisfied (AOR 3.64, 95% CI 3.00-4.42) and confident (AOR 1.34, 95% CI 1.08- 1.65). Conclusion Women who birthed in the public sector appeared more satisfied because they had higher odds of receiving contact from a health professional within 10 days post-discharge. All women should have an opportunity to speak to and/or see a doctor, midwife or nurse in the first 10 days at home, and the details of a person they can contact 24 hours a day.