905 resultados para agricultural sector


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Includes bibliography

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Includes bibliography

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Includes bibliography

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Incluye Bibliografía

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The main objective of the present study was to determine the value of impacts due to climate change on the agricultural sector in the Caribbean under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B2 scenarios. More specifically, the study aimed to evaluate the direction and magnitude of the potential impacts of climate change on aggregate agricultural output and other key agricultural indicators. Further, the study forecast changes in income for agricultural output for key subsectors under the A2 and B2 scenarios, from 2011 to 2050. It analysed the benefits and costs of the key adaptation strategies identified by Caribbean Governments.

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This study econometrically analyses the projected impact of climate change on the water sector of nine Caribbean countries to 2100: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Montserrat, Jamaica, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia, and Trinidad and Tobago. Overall, all countries, with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago, are expected to suffer aggregate losses as result of climate change in the early periods ca. 2020 under one or more scenarios. Over time, some countries experience declining negative impacts, as in the case of Guyana under the B2 scenario. Some countries, such as the Dominican Republic, is projected to suffer increasing losses under the B2 scenario and, for others, the impacts do not follow a defined trend. The A2 scenario offers the best outcome for all countries, except Jamaica (where BAU is most desirable), Montserrat (which performs most poorly under the A2 scenario), and the Netherlands Antilles, which does best under the B2 case. Overall, relative to 2006, the total demand for water in the Caribbean is expected to fall by 2030 by 11.3% to approximately 12,967 million cubic meters. This is due to the expected fall in agricultural water demand by approximately 36% in that period. However, by 2050, total water demand for the Caribbean will again exceed the 2006 level by approximately 4% to 14,896.33 106 m3. By 2100, water demand will increase almost fivefold to approximately 69,233.69 106 m3. Climate change is expected to affect all countries in the Caribbean. In some cases, there will be positive impacts that may continue to increase over time and, in other cases, the impact will be negative and worsen over time. Overall, the agricultural sector is expected to suffer the worst losses over any scenario, whilst growth in the industrial sectors is expected to be significant and contribute the most to increasing water demand over time.

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The agricultural sector‟s contribution to GDP and to exports in Jamaica has been declining with the post-war development process that has led to the differentiation of the economy. In 2010, the sector contributed 5.8% of GDP, and 3% to the exports (of goods), but with 36% of employment, it continues to be a major employer. With a little less than half of the population living in rural communities, agricultural activities, and their linkages with other economic activities, continue to play an important role as a source of livelihoods, and by extension, the economic development of the country. Sugar cane cultivation has, with the exception of a couple of decades in the twentieth century when it was superseded by bananas, dominated the agricultural export sector for centuries as the source of the raw materials for the manufacture of sugar for export. In 2005, sugar cane itself accounted for 6.4% of the sector‟s contribution to GDP, and 52% of the contribution of agricultural exports to GDP. Production for the domestic market has long been the larger subsector, organized around the production of root crops, especially yams, vegetables and condiments. To analyse the potential impact of climate change on the agricultural sector, this study selected three important crops for detailed examination. In particular, the study selected sugar cane because of its overwhelming importance to the export subsector of agriculture, and yam and escallion for both their contribution to the domestic subsector as well as the preeminent role yams and escallion play in the economic activities of the communities in the hills of central Jamaica, and the plains of the southwest respectively. As with other studies in this project, the methodology adopted was to compare the estimated values of output on the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios with the value of output on a “baseline” Business As Usual (BAU), and then estimate the net benefits of investment in the relevant to climate change for the selected crops. The A2 and B2 Scenarios were constructed by applying forecasts of changes in temperature and precipitation generated by INSMET from ECHAM inspired climate models. The BAU “baseline” was a linear projection of the historical trends of yields for each crop. Linear models of yields were estimated for each crop with particular attention to the influence of the two climate variables – temperature and precipitation. These models were then used to forecast yields up to 2050 (table1). These yields were then used to estimate the value of output of the selected crop, as well as the contribution to overall GDP, on each Scenario. The analysis suggested replanting sugar cane with heat resistant varieties, rehabilitating irrigation systems where they existed, and establishing technologically appropriate irrigation systems where they were not for the three selected crops.

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Climate change is anticipated to have potentially disastrous impacts on the economic viability of the agricultural sector, insomuch as traditional agricultural practices render the agricultural sector climate-dependent. Increased temperatures and increased intensity, timing and occurrence of hydro events are expected to challenge plant and animal viability. Under such circumstances, vector control is expected to become more difficult, which may further prejudice the prosperity of plant, livestock and fisheries growth. The impact is expected to be on the quality of agricultural produce and thereby, indirectly, on human health outcomes. The key threat mechanisms are debilitated plant vitality and increased propagation of pests, as drought periods increase the breeding of vectors through water pooling and soil erosion associated with the increased intensity of hydro events. In addition, climate change is likely to affect crop productivity in specific geographical areas through its impact on growing seasons and crop patterns, to the extent that crop varieties cannot adapt.

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The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the gender and social disparities existing in the agricultural and rural sector in Caribbean economies. In this context, agricultural transformation as occasioned by the dismantling of preferential trading arrangements is analysed to identify the most relevant gender discriminatory measures in the current agricultural development policy and programmes. The analysis seeks to provide the basis for enhancing understanding among policy makers, planners and rural development practitioners of the gender and social dimension involved in the formulation of agricultural policy and more specifically in relation to the new policy and institutional arrangements for agriculture in the region. The paper also provides insights regarding what changes should take place to create an enabling environment for more gender-based approaches to policy-making and strategic planning in agricultural development and trade in the Caribbean. The methodology centred on the review of secondary sources that provide references on the new challenges, opportunities and constraints faced by the agricultural sector, in particular small farmers, in the context of globalization and agriculture transformation. Much of the literature for this assignment was obtained from FAO Headquarters in Rome and the FAO Subregional Office in Barbados, as well as the OECS Secretariat in St. Lucia. In the process of the review exercise, due consideration was given to changes in agricultural production patterns, resources allocation and rural livelihoods. Efforts to examine the most relevant policy measures and mechanisms in-place in support to agricultural development in the region were constrained, in the main, by the absence of gender disaggregated data. Documentation as regards the situation of women and men in relation to agricultural labour, rural income and food security situation in regions were limited. The use of the internet served to bridge the communication gap between countries and institutions. The preliminary draft of the paper was presented and discussed at the FAO/ECLAC/UNIFEM regional workshop on mainstreaming gender analysis in agriculture and trade policies, for Caribbean countries, in November 2003. The second draft of the paper was informed by comments from the workshop and additional information acquired through field visits to Barbados, St. Kitts and St. Vincent in March 2004. The three day visits to each of these three countries entailed a review/appreciation of the resource, constraints and institutional capacities for gender mainstreaming within the agricultural sector at the national level. This included visits to some of the major agricultural projects and interviews with farmers (where feasible) in respect of their perspective of the current situation of the agricultural sector and the viability of their farm enterprises. As well, meetings were held with relevant/available officials within the respective ministries of agriculture to discern the gender consideration as regards agricultural policy and planning at the country level. The internet was invaluable to the task of sourcing supplementary information to satisfy the aim of the paper; in respect of the identification of concrete policy measures and actions to formulate and develop more gender/social-responsive agricultural development policies. The final revision, though thwart with resource and communication constraints, was ultimately completed in compliance with the structure and approach proposed in the terms of references for this FAO/ECLAC assignment.

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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Ciência do Solo) - FCAV

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Turkish agriculture has been experiencing a period of unique policy experiment over the last couple years. A World Bank-initiated project, called the Agricultural Reform Implementation Project (ARIP), has been at the forefront of policy change. It was initially promoted by the Bank as an exemplary reform package which could also be adopted by other developing countries. It was introduced in 2001 as part of a major International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank-imposed program of “structural adjustment” after the country had been hit by a major financial crisis. The project has finally come to an end in 2009, and there is now an urgent need for a retrospective assessment of its overall impact on the agricultural sector. Has it fulfilled its ambitious objective of reforming and restructuring Turkish agriculture? Or should it be recorded as a failure of the neo-liberal doctrine? This book aims at finding answers to these questions by investigating the legacy of ARIP from a multi-disciplinary perspective.