Prognostic validity of 3-Minute Nutrition Screening (3-MinNS) in predicting length of hospital stay, readmission, cost of hospitalisation and mortality : a cohort study

Background: It is important to identify patients who are at risk of malnutrition upon hospital admission as malnutrition results in poor outcomes such as longer length of hospital stay, readmission, hospitalisation cost and mortality. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic validity of 3-Minute Nutrition Screening (3-MinNS) in predicting hospital outcomes in patients admitted to an acute tertiary hospital through a list of diagnosis-related groups (DRG). Methods: In this study, 818 adult patients were screened for risk of malnutrition using 3-MinNS within 24 hours of admission. Mortality data was collected from the National Registry with other hospitalisation outcomes retrieved from electronic hospital records. The results were adjusted for age, gender and ethnicity, and matched for DRG. Results: Patients identified to be at risk of malnutrition (37%) using 3-MinNS had significant positive association with longer length of hospital stay (6.6 ± 7.1 days vs. 4.5 ± 5.5 days, p<0.001), higher hospitalisation cost (S$4540 ± 7190 vs. S$3630 ± 4961, p<0.001) and increased mortality rate at 1 year (27.8% vs. 3.9%), 2 years (33.8% vs. 7.2%) and 3 years (39.1% vs. 10.5%); p<0.001 for all. Conclusions: The 3-MinNS is able to predict clinical outcomes and can be used to screen newly admitted patients for nutrition risk so that appropriate nutrition assessment and early nutritional intervention can be initiated.

Provincial mortality in South Africa, 2000 - priority-setting for now and a benchmark for the future

Background. Cause-of-death statistics are an essential component of health information. Despite improvements, underregistration and misclassification of causes make it difficult to interpret the official death statistics. Objective. To estimate consistent cause-specific death rates for the year 2000 and to identify the leading causes of death and premature mortality in the provinces. Methods. Total number of deaths and population size were estimated using the Actuarial Society of South Africa ASSA2000 AIDS and demographic model. Cause-of-death profiles based on Statistics South Africa's 15% sample, adjusted for misclassification of deaths due to ill-defined causes and AIDS deaths due to indicator conditions, were applied to the total deaths by age and sex. Age-standardised rates and years of life lost were calculated using age weighting and discounting. Results. Life expectancy in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga is about 10 years lower than that in the Western Cape, the province with the lowest mortality rate. HIV/AIDS is the leading cause of premature mortality for all provinces. Mortality due to pre-transitional causes, such as diarrhoea, is more pronounced in the poorer and more rural provinces. In contrast, non-communicable disease mortality is similar across all provinces, although the cause profiles differ. Injury mortality rates are particularly high in provinces with large metropolitan areas and in Mpumalanga. Conclusion. The quadruple burden experienced in all provinces requires a broad range of interventions, including improved access to health care; ensuring that basic needs such as those related to water and sanitation are met; disease and injury prevention; and promotion of a healthy lifestyle. High death rates as a result of HIV/AIDS highlight the urgent need to accelerate the implementation of the treatment and prevention plan. In addition, there is an urgent need to improve the cause-of-death data system to provide reliable cause-of-death statistics at health district level.

Mortality attributable to smoking in Vietnamese men in 2008

Objective Smoking prevalence among Vietnamese men is among the highest in the world. Our aim was to provide estimates of tobacco attributable mortality to support tobacco control policies. Method We used the Peto–Lopez method using lung cancer mortality to derive a Smoking Impact Ratio (SIR) as a marker of cumulative exposure to smoking. SIRs were applied to relative risks from the Cancer Prevention Study, Phase II. Prevalence-based and hybrid methods, using the SIR for cancers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and smoking prevalence for all other outcomes, were used in sensitivity analyses. Results When lung cancer was used to measure cumulative smoking exposure, 28% (95% uncertainty interval 24–31%) of all adult male deaths (> 35 years) in Vietnam in 2008 were attributable to smoking. Lower estimates resulted from prevalence-based methods [24% (95% uncertainty interval 21–26%)] with the hybrid method yielding intermediate estimates [26% (95% uncertainty interval 23–28%)]. Conclusion Despite uncertainty in these estimates of attributable mortality, tobacco smoking is already a major risk factor for death in Vietnamese men. Given the high current prevalence of smoking, this has important implications not only for preventing the uptake of tobacco but also for immediate action to adopt and enforce stronger tobacco control measures.

The genetic effective and adult census size of an Australian population of tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus)

This study compares estimates of the census size of the spawning population with genetic estimates of effective current and long-term population size for an abundant and commercially important marine invertebrate, the brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus). Our aim was to focus on the relationship between genetic effective and census size that may provide a source of information for viability analyses of naturally occurring populations. Samples were taken in 2001, 2002 and 2003 from a population on the east coast of Australia and temporal allelic variation was measured at eight polymorphic microsatellite loci. Moments-based and maximum-likelihood estimates of current genetic effective population size ranged from 797 to 1304. The mean long-term genetic effective population size was 9968. Although small for a large population, the effective population size estimates were above the threshold where genetic diversity is lost at neutral alleles through drift or inbreeding. Simulation studies correctly predicted that under these experimental conditions the genetic estimates would have non-infinite upper confidence limits and revealed they might be overestimates of the true size. We also show that estimates of mortality and variance in family size may be derived from data on average fecundity, current genetic effective and census spawning population size, assuming effective population size is equivalent to the number of breeders. This work confirms that it is feasible to obtain accurate estimates of current genetic effective population size for abundant Type III species using existing genetic marker technology.

The validity of the GENEActiv wrist-worn accelerometer for measuring adult sedentary time in free living

OBJECTIVES Based on self-reported measures, sedentary time has been associated with chronic disease and mortality. This study examined the validity of the wrist-worn GENEactiv accelerometer for measuring sedentary time (i.e. sitting and lying) by posture classification, during waking hours in free living adults. DESIGN Fifty-seven participants (age=18-55 years 52% male) were recruited using convenience sampling from a large metropolitan Australian university. METHODS Participants wore a GENEActiv accelerometer on their non-dominant wrist and an activPAL device attached to their right thigh for 24-h (00:00 to 23:59:59). Pearson's Correlation Coefficient was used to examine the convergent validity of the GENEActiv and the activPAL for estimating total sedentary time during waking hours. Agreement was illustrated using Bland and Altman plots, and intra-individual agreement for posture was assessed with the Kappa statistic. RESULTS Estimates of average total sedentary time over 24-h were 623 (SD 103) min/day from the GENEActiv, and 626 (SD 123) min/day from the activPAL, with an Intraclass Correlation Coefficient of 0.80 (95% confidence intervals 0.68-0.88). Bland and Altman plots showed slight underestimation of mean total sedentary time for GENEActiv relative to activPAL (mean difference: -3.44min/day), with moderate limits of agreement (-144 to 137min/day). Mean Kappa for posture was 0.53 (SD 0.12), indicating moderate agreement for this sample at the individual level. CONCLUSIONS The estimation of sedentary time by posture classification of the wrist-worn GENEActiv accelerometer was comparable to the activPAL. The GENEActiv may provide an alternative, easy to wear device based measure for descriptive estimates of sedentary time in population samples

The effects of height and BMI on prostate cancer incidence and mortality: A Mendelian randomization study in 20,848 cases and 20,214 controls from the PRACTICAL consortium

Background Epidemiological studies suggest a potential role for obesity and determinants of adult stature in prostate cancer risk and mortality, but the relationships described in the literature are complex. To address uncertainty over the causal nature of previous observational findings, we investigated associations of height- and adiposity-related genetic variants with prostate cancer risk and mortality. Methods We conducted a case–control study based on 20,848 prostate cancers and 20,214 controls of European ancestry from 22 studies in the PRACTICAL consortium. We constructed genetic risk scores that summed each man’s number of height and BMI increasing alleles across multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms robustly associated with each phenotype from published genome-wide association studies. Results The genetic risk scores explained 6.31 and 1.46 % of the variability in height and BMI, respectively. There was only weak evidence that genetic variants previously associated with increased BMI were associated with a lower prostate cancer risk (odds ratio per standard deviation increase in BMI genetic score 0.98; 95 % CI 0.96, 1.00; p = 0.07). Genetic variants associated with increased height were not associated with prostate cancer incidence (OR 0.99; 95 % CI 0.97, 1.01; p = 0.23), but were associated with an increase (OR 1.13; 95 % CI 1.08, 1.20) in prostate cancer mortality among low-grade disease (p heterogeneity, low vs. high grade <0.001). Genetic variants associated with increased BMI were associated with an increase (OR 1.08; 95 % CI 1.03, 1.14) in all-cause mortality among men with low-grade disease (p heterogeneity = 0.03). Conclusions We found little evidence of a substantial effect of genetically elevated height or BMI on prostate cancer risk, suggesting that previously reported observational associations may reflect common environmental determinants of height or BMI and prostate cancer risk. Genetically elevated height and BMI were associated with increased mortality (prostate cancer-specific and all-cause, respectively) in men with low-grade disease, a potentially informative but novel finding that requires replication.

Patterns of growth, mortality, and size of the tropical damselfish Acanthochromis polyacanthus across the continental shelf of the Great Barrier Reef

Age-based analyses were used to demonstrate consistent differences in growth between populations of Acanthochromis polyacanthus (Pomacentridae) collected at three distance strata across the continental shelf (inner, mid-, and outer shelf) of the central Great Barrier Reef (three reefs per distance stratum). Fish had significantly greater maximum lengths with increasing distance from shore, but fish from all distances reached approximately the same maximum age, indicating that growth is more rapid for fish found on outer-shelf reefs. Only one fish collected from inner-shelf reefs reached >100 mm SL, whereas 38−67% of fish collected from the outer shelf were >100 mm SL. The largest age class of adult-size fish collected from inner and mid-shelf locations comprised 3−4 year-olds, but shifted to 2-year-olds on outer-shelf reefs. Mortality schedules (Z and S) were similar irrespective of shelf position (inner shelf: 0.51 and 60.0%; mid-shelf: 0.48 and 61.8%; outer shelf: 0.43 and 65.1%, respectively). Age validation of captive fish indicated that growth increments are deposited annually, between the end of winter and early spring. The observed cross-shelf patterns in adult sizes and growth were unlikely to be a result of genetic differences between sample populations because all fish collected showed the same color pattern. It is likely that cross-shelf variation in quality and quantity of food, as well as in turbidity, are factors that contribute to the observed patterns of growth. Similar patterns of cross-shelf mortality indicate that predation rates varied little across the shelf. Our study cautions against pooling demographic parameters on broad spatial scales without consideration of the potential for cross-shelf variabil

Overview of Mark-recovery Studies on Adult and Juvenile Atlantic Menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, and Gulf Menhaden, B. patronus

Extensive mark-recapture studies using internal ferromagnetic tags have been conducted on Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, and Gulf menhaden, B. patronus. From 1966 through 1969, 1,066,357 adult Atlantic menhaden were tagged; subsequently, from 1970 through 1987, 428,272 juveniles of this species were tagged. Similarly, from 1969 through 1971, 75,673 adult Gulf menhaden were tagged; concurrently from 1970 through 1985, 236,936 juveniles were tagged and released. This report provides an overview of the history of the tagging program, methodologies for both release and recovery activities, a summary of release areas and number of fish tagged within each area, and a review of assumptions necessary for the analysis of this type of mark-recovery data. The resulting data sets have proven to be highly useful for a variety of analyses ranging from determination of migratory patterns and population structure to estimating mortality rates. The relatively wide range of acceptance of tagging results by laymen, industry, and analysts alike have made these data extremely useful for management-oriented analyses.

In utero domoic acid toxicity: a fetal basis to adult disease in the California sea lion (Zalophus californianus)

California sea lions have been a repeated subject of investigation for early life toxicity, which has been documented to occur with increasing frequency from late February through mid-May in association with organochlorine (PCB and DDT) poisoning and infectious disease in the 1970's and domoic acid poisoning in the last decade. The mass early life mortality events result from the concentrated breeding grounds and synchronization of reproduction over a 28 day post partum estrus cycle and 11 month in utero phase. This physiological synchronization is triggered by a decreasing photoperiod of 11.48 h/day that occurs approximately 90 days after conception at the major California breeding grounds. The photoperiod trigger activates implantation of embryos to proceed with development for the next 242 days until birth. Embryonic diapause is a selectable trait thought to optimize timing for food utilization and male migratory patterns; yet from the toxicological perspective presented here also serves to synchronize developmental toxicity of pulsed environmental events such as domoic acid poisoning. Research studies in laboratory animals have defined age-dependent neurotoxic effects during development and windows of susceptibility to domoic acid exposure. This review will evaluate experimental domoic acid neurotoxicity in developing rodents and, aided by comparative allometric projections, will analyze potential prenatal toxicity and exposure susceptibility in the California sea lion. This analysis should provide a useful tool to forecast fetal toxicity and understand the impact of fetal toxicity on adult disease of the California sea lion.

Fecundity, egg deposition, and mortality of market squid (Lolilgo opalescens)

Loligo opalescens live less than a year and die after a short spawning period before all oocytes are expended. Potential fecundity (EP), the standing stock of all oocytes just before the onset of spawning, increased with dorsal mantle length (L), where EP = 29.8L. For the average female squid (L of 129 mm), EP was 3844 oocytes. During the spawning period, no oogonia were produced; therefore the standing stock of oocytes declined as they were ovulated. This decline in oocytes was correlated with a decline in mantle condition and an increase in the size of the smallest oocyte in the ovary. Close agreement between the decline in estimated body weight and standing stock of oocytes during the spawning period indicated that maturation and spawning of eggs could largely, if not entirely, be supported by the conversion of energy reserves in tissue. Loligo opalescens, newly recruited to the spawning population, ovulated about 36% of their potential fecundity during their first spawning day and fewer ova were released in subsequent days. Loligo opalescens do not spawn all of their oocytes; a small percentage of the spawning population may live long enough to spawn 78% of their potential fecundity. Loligo opalescens are taken in a spawning grounds fishery off California, where nearly all of the catch are mature spawning adults. Thirty-three percent of the potential fecundity of L. opalescens was deposited before they were taken by the fishery (December 1998−99). This observation led to the development of a management strategy based on monitoring the escapement of eggs from the fishery. The strategy requires estimation of the fecundity realized by the average squid in the population which is a function of egg deposition and mortality rates. A model indicated that the daily total mortality rate on the spawning ground may be about 0.45 and that the average adult may live only 1.67 days after spawning begins. The rate at which eggs escape the fishery was modeled and the sensitivity of changing daily rates of fishing mortality, natural mortality, and egg deposition was examined. A rapid method for monitoring the fecundity of the L. opalescens catch was developed.

The biology and control of Caligus sp., an ectoparasite of the adult milkfish Chanos chanos Forskal

One unidentified species of copepod belonging to the genus Caliqus of the family Caigidae was found to infest the adult milkfish broodstock. To control the parasites infesting the adult milkfish, tests were made using the chemical (2,2,2-trichloro-1-hydroxyl)-phosphonic acid-dimethylethol (Neguvon) at a concentration of 0 . 25 ppm. It is noted that a concentration of 0 . 25 ppm of Neguvon maintained for 12-24 hours in the sabalo-containing tanks in a closed water system but with aeration is effective in controlling the parasites. Fish mortality during the experiment was due to inadequate aeration in the tanks.

Reliability of antitransglutaminase antibodies as predictors of gluten-free diet compliance in adult celiac disease.

OBJECTIVE: Strict lifelong compliance to a gluten-free diet (GFD) minimizes the long-term risk of mortality, especially from lymphoma, in adult celiac disease (CD). Although serum IgA antitransglutaminase (IgA-tTG-ab), like antiendomysium (IgA-EMA) antibodies, are sensitive and specific screening tests for untreated CD, their reliability as predictors of strict compliance to and dietary transgressions from a GFD is not precisely known. We aimed to address this question in consecutively treated adult celiacs. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study, 95 non-IgA deficient adult (median age: 41 yr) celiacs on a GFD for at least 1 yr (median: 6 yr) were subjected to 1) a dietician-administered inquiry to pinpoint and quantify the number and levels of transgressions (classified as moderate or large, using as a cutoff value the median gluten amount ingested in the overall noncompliant patients of the series) over the previous 2 months, 2) a search for IgA-tTG-ab and -EMA, and 3) perendoscopic duodenal biopsies. The ability of both antibodies to discriminate celiacs with and without detected transgressions was described using receiver operating characteristic curves and quantified as to sensitivity and specificity, according to the level of transgressions. RESULTS: Forty (42%) patients strictly adhered to a GFD, 55 (58%) had committed transgressions, classified as moderate (< or = 18 g of gluten/2 months; median number 6) in 27 and large (>18 g; median number 69) in 28. IgA-tTG-ab and -EMA specificity (proportion of correct recognition of strictly compliant celiacs) was 0.97 and 0.98, respectively, and sensitivity (proportion of correct recognition of overall, moderate, and large levels of transgressions) was 0.52, 0.31, and 0.77, and 0.62, 0.37, and 0.86, respectively. IgA-tTG-ab and -EMA titers were correlated (p < 0.001) to transgression levels (r = 0.560 and R = 0.631, respectively) and one to another (p < 0.001) in the whole patient population (r = 0.834, N = 84) as in the noncompliant (r = 0.915, N = 48) group. Specificity and sensitivity of IgA-tTG-ab and IgA-EMA for recognition of total villous atrophy in patients under a GFD were 0.90 and 0.91, and 0.60 and 0.73, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In adult CD patients on a GFD, IgA-tTG-ab are poor predictors of dietary transgressions. Their negativity is a falsely secure marker of strict diet compliance.

Factors associated with mortality in transplant patients with invasive aspergillosis.

BACKGROUND: Invasive aspergillosis (IA) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) and solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients. The purpose of this study was to evaluate factors associated with mortality in transplant patients with IA. METHODS: Transplant patients from 23 US centers were enrolled from March 2001 to October 2005 as part of the Transplant Associated Infection Surveillance Network. IA cases were identified prospectively in this cohort through March 2006, and data were collected. Factors associated with 12-week all-cause mortality were determined by logistic regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Six-hundred forty-two cases of proven or probable IA were evaluated, of which 317 (49.4%) died by the study endpoint. All-cause mortality was greater in HSCT patients (239 [57.5%] of 415) than in SOT patients (78 [34.4%] of 227; P<.001). Independent poor prognostic factors in HSCT patients were neutropenia, renal insufficiency, hepatic insufficiency, early-onset IA, proven IA, and methylprednisolone use. In contrast, white race was associated with decreased risk of death. Among SOT patients, hepatic insufficiency, malnutrition, and central nervous system disease were poor prognostic indicators, whereas prednisone use was associated with decreased risk of death. Among HSCT or SOT patients who received antifungal therapy, use of an amphotericin B preparation as part of initial therapy was associated with increased risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: There are multiple variables associated with survival in transplant patients with IA. Understanding these prognostic factors may assist in the development of treatment algorithms and clinical trials.

Daily intake of antioxidants in relation to survival among adult patients diagnosed with malignant glioma.

BACKGROUND: Malignant glioma is a rare cancer with poor survival. The influence of diet and antioxidant intake on glioma survival is not well understood. The current study examines the association between antioxidant intake and survival after glioma diagnosis. METHODS: Adult patients diagnosed with malignant glioma during 1991-1994 and 1997-2001 were enrolled in a population-based study. Diagnosis was confirmed by review of pathology specimens. A modified food-frequency questionnaire interview was completed by each glioma patient or a designated proxy. Intake of each food item was converted to grams consumed/day. From this nutrient database, 16 antioxidants, calcium, a total antioxidant index and 3 macronutrients were available for survival analysis. Cox regression estimated mortality hazard ratios associated with each nutrient and the antioxidant index adjusting for potential confounders. Nutrient values were categorized into tertiles. Models were stratified by histology (Grades II, III, and IV) and conducted for all (including proxy) subjects and for a subset of self-reported subjects. RESULTS: Geometric mean values for 11 fat-soluble and 6 water-soluble individual antioxidants, antioxidant index and 3 macronutrients were virtually the same when comparing all cases (n=748) to self-reported cases only (n=450). For patients diagnosed with Grade II and Grade III histology, moderate (915.8-2118.3 mcg) intake of fat-soluble lycopene was associated with poorer survival when compared to low intake (0.0-914.8 mcg), for self-reported cases only. High intake of vitamin E and moderate/high intake of secoisolariciresinol among Grade III patients indicated greater survival for all cases. In Grade IV patients, moderate/high intake of cryptoxanthin and high intake of secoisolariciresinol were associated with poorer survival among all cases. Among Grade II patients, moderate intake of water-soluble folate was associated with greater survival for all cases; high intake of vitamin C and genistein and the highest level of the antioxidant index were associated with poorer survival for all cases. CONCLUSIONS: The associations observed in our study suggest that the influence of some antioxidants on survival following a diagnosis of malignant glioma are inconsistent and vary by histology group. Further research in a large sample of glioma patients is needed to confirm/refute our results.

Ventricular conduction and long-term heart failure outcomes and mortality in African Americans: insights from the Jackson Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: QRS prolongation is associated with adverse outcomes in mostly white populations, but its clinical significance is not well established for other groups. We investigated the association between QRS duration and mortality in African Americans. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed data from 5146 African Americans in the Jackson Heart Study stratified by QRS duration on baseline 12-lead ECG. We defined QRS prolongation as QRS≥100 ms. We assessed the association between QRS duration and all-cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards models and reported the cumulative incidence of heart failure hospitalization. We identified factors associated with the development of QRS prolongation in patients with normal baseline QRS. At baseline, 30% (n=1528) of participants had QRS prolongation. The cumulative incidences of mortality and heart failure hospitalization were greater with versus without baseline QRS prolongation: 12.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.0-14.4) versus 7.1% (95% CI, 6.3-8.0) and 8.2% (95% CI, 6.9-9.7) versus 4.4% (95% CI, 3.7-5.1), respectively. After risk adjustment, QRS prolongation was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.56; P=0.02). There was a linear relationship between QRS duration and mortality (hazard ratio per 10 ms increase, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.12). Older age, male sex, prior myocardial infarction, lower ejection fraction, left ventricular hypertrophy, and left ventricular dilatation were associated with the development of QRS prolongation. CONCLUSIONS: QRS prolongation in African Americans was associated with increased mortality and heart failure hospitalization. Factors associated with developing QRS prolongation included age, male sex, prior myocardial infarction, and left ventricular structural abnormalities.