Detrital zircon geochronology data, petrographic point count data and paleocurrent indicator data of Triassic turbidites in the Nanpanjiang Basin, South China

Triassic turbidites of the Nanpanjiang basin of south China represent the most expansive and voluminous siliciclastic turbidite accumulation in south China. The Nanpanjiang basin occurs at a critical junction between the southern margin of the south China plate and the Indochina, Siamo and Sibumasu plates to the south and southwest. The Triassic Yangtze carbonate shelf and isolated carbonated platforms in the basin have been extensively studied, but silicilastic turbidites in the basin have received relatively little attention. Deciphering the facies, paleocurrent indicators and provenance of the Triassic turbidites is important for several reasons: it promises to help resolve the timing of plate collisions along suture zones bordering the basin to the south and southwest, it will enable evaluation of which suture zones and Precambrian massifs were source areas, and it will allow an evaluation of the impact of the siliciclastic flux on carbonate platform evolution within the basin. Turbidites in the basin include the Early Triassic Shipao Formation and the Middle-Late Triassic Baifeng, Xinyuan, Lanmu Bianyang and Laishike formations. Each ranges upward of 700 m and the thickest is nearly 3 km. The turbidites contain very-fine sand in the northern part of the basin whereas the central and southern parts of the basin also commonly contain fine and rarely medium sand size. Coarser sand sizes occur where paleocurrents are from the south, and in this area some turbidites exhibit complete bouma sequences with graded A divisions. Successions contain numerous alternations between mud-rich and sand-rich intervals with thickness trends corresponding to proximal/ distal fan components. Spectacularly preserved sedimentary structures enable robust evaluation of turbidite systems and paleocurrent analyses. Analysis of paleocurrent measurements indicates two major directions of sediment fill. The northern part of the basin was sourced primarily by the Jiangnan massif in the northeast, and the central and southern parts of the basin were sourced primarily from suture zones and the Yunkai massif to the south and southeast respectively. Sandstones of the Lower Triassic Shipao Fm. have volcaniclastic composition including embayed quartz and glass shards. Middle Triassic sandstones are moderately mature, matrix-rich, lithic wackes. The average QFL ratio from all point count samples is 54.1/18.1/27.8% and the QmFLt ratio is 37.8/ 18.1/ 44.1%. Lithic fragments are dominantly claystone and siltstone clasts and metasedimentary clasts such as quartz mica tectonite. Volcanic lithics are rare. Most samples fall in the recycled orogen field of QmFLt plots, indicating a relatively quartz and lithic rich composition consistent with derivation from Precambrian massifs such as the Jiangnan, and Yunkai. A few samples from the southwest part of the basin fall into the dissected arc field, indicating a somewhat more lithic and feldspar-rich composition consistent with derivation from a suture zone Analysis of detrial zircon populations from 17 samples collected across the basin indicate: (1) Several samples contain zircons with concordant ages greater than 3000 Ma, (2) there are widespread peaks across the basin at 1800 Ma and 2500, (3) a widespread 900 Ma population, (3) a widespread population of zircons at 440 Ma, and (5) a larger population of younger zircons about 250 Ma in the southwestern part which is replaced to the north and northwest by a somewhat older population around 260-290 Ma. The 900 Ma provenance fits derivation from the Jiangnan Massif, the 2500, 1800, and 440 Ma provenance fits the Yunkai massif, and the 250 Ma is consistent with convergence and arc development in suture zones bordering the basin on the south or southwest. Early siliciclastic turbidite flux, proximal to source areas impacted carbonate platform evolution by infilling the basin, reducing accommodation space, stabilizing carbonate platform margins and promoting margin progradation. Late arrival, in areas far from source areas caused margin aggradation over a starved basin, development of high relief aggradational escarpments and unstable scalloped margins.

Continuous count data.

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Advances in Dynamic Modeling and Computation for Count Data

A class of multi-process models is developed for collections of time indexed count data. Autocorrelation in counts is achieved with dynamic models for the natural parameter of the binomial distribution. In addition to modeling binomial time series, the framework includes dynamic models for multinomial and Poisson time series. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Po ́lya-Gamma data augmentation (Polson et al., 2013) are critical for fitting multi-process models of counts. To facilitate computation when the counts are high, a Gaussian approximation to the P ́olya- Gamma random variable is developed.

Three applied analyses are presented to explore the utility and versatility of the framework. The first analysis develops a model for complex dynamic behavior of themes in collections of text documents. Documents are modeled as a “bag of words”, and the multinomial distribution is used to characterize uncertainty in the vocabulary terms appearing in each document. State-space models for the natural parameters of the multinomial distribution induce autocorrelation in themes and their proportional representation in the corpus over time.

The second analysis develops a dynamic mixed membership model for Poisson counts. The model is applied to a collection of time series which record neuron level firing patterns in rhesus monkeys. The monkey is exposed to two sounds simultaneously, and Gaussian processes are used to smoothly model the time-varying rate at which the neuron’s firing pattern fluctuates between features associated with each sound in isolation.

The third analysis presents a switching dynamic generalized linear model for the time-varying home run totals of professional baseball players. The model endows each player with an age specific latent natural ability class and a performance enhancing drug (PED) use indicator. As players age, they randomly transition through a sequence of ability classes in a manner consistent with traditional aging patterns. When the performance of the player significantly deviates from the expected aging pattern, he is identified as a player whose performance is consistent with PED use.

All three models provide a mechanism for sharing information across related series locally in time. The models are fit with variations on the P ́olya-Gamma Gibbs sampler, MCMC convergence diagnostics are developed, and reproducible inference is emphasized throughout the dissertation.

Dynamic fator Models for bivariate Count Data: an application to fire activity

The study of forest re activity, in its several aspects, is essencial to understand the phenomenon and to prevent environmental public catastrophes. In this context the analysis of monthly number of res along several years is one aspect to have into account in order to better comprehend this tematic. The goal of this work is to analyze the monthly number of forest res in the neighboring districts of Aveiro and Coimbra, Portugal, through dynamic factor models for bivariate count series. We use a bayesian approach, through MCMC methods, to estimate the model parameters as well as to estimate the common latent factor to both series.