Modeling perceived collision risk in port water navigation

An increase in the likelihood of navigational collisions in port waters has put focus on the collision avoidance process in port traffic safety. The most widely used on-board collision avoidance system is the automatic radar plotting aid which is a passive warning system that triggers an alert based on the pilot’s pre-defined indicators of distance and time proximities at the closest point of approaches in encounters with nearby vessels. To better help pilot in decision making in close quarter situations, collision risk should be considered as a continuous monotonic function of the proximities and risk perception should be considered probabilistically. This paper derives an ordered probit regression model to study perceived collision risks. To illustrate the procedure, the risks perceived by Singapore port pilots were obtained to calibrate the regression model. The results demonstrate that a framework based on the probabilistic risk assessment model can be used to give a better understanding of collision risk and to define a more appropriate level of evasive actions.

Navigational traffic conflict technique: a proactive approach to quantitative measurement of collision risks in port waters

Navigational safety analysis relying on collision statistics is often hampered because of low number of observations. A promising alternative approach that overcomes this problem is proposed in this paper. By analyzing critical vessel interactions this approach proactively measures collision risk in port waters. The proposed method is illustrated for quantitative measurement of collision risks in Singapore port fairways, and validated by examining correlations between the measured risks with those perceived by pilots. This method is an ethically appealing alternative to the collision-based analysis for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possesses great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

Modelling port water collision risk using traffic conflicts

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Despite the extent of work recently done on collision risk analysis in port waters, little is known about the influencing factors of the risk. This paper develops a technique for modeling collision risks in port waterways in order to examine the associations between the risks and the geometric, traffic, and regulatory control characteristics of waterways. A binomial logistic model, which accounts for the correlations in the risks of a particular fairway at different time periods, is derived from traffic conflicts and calibrated for the Singapore port fairways. Estimation results show that the fairways attached to shoreline, traffic intersection and international fairway attribute higher risks, whereas those attached to confined water and local fairway possess lower risks. Higher risks are also found in the fairways featuring higher degree of bend, lower depth of water, higher numbers of cardinal and isolated danger marks, higher density of moving ships and lower operating speed. The risks are also found to be higher for night-time conditions.

Hierarchical modeling of perceived collision risks in port fairways

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns in many seaports. Despite the extent of recent works done on port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot’s perception of collision risks in port fairways. This paper uses a hierarchical ordered probit model to investigate associations between perceived risks and the geometric and traffic characteristics of fairways and the pilot attributes. Perceived risk data, collected through a risk perception survey conducted among the Singapore port pilots, are used to calibrate the model. Intra-class correlation coefficient justifies use of the hierarchical model in comparison with an ordinary model. Results show higher perceived risks in fairways attached to anchorages, and in those featuring sharper bends and higher traffic operating speeds. Lesser risks are perceived in fairways attached to shoreline and confined waters, and in those with one-way traffic, traffic separation scheme, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Risk is also found to be perceived higher in night.

Analysis of involved parties in port water conflicts

With increasing rate of shipping traffic, the risk of collisions in busy and congested port waters is expected to rise. However, due to low collision frequencies it is difficult to analyze such risk in a sound statistical manner. This study aims at examining the occurrence of traffic conflicts in order to understand the characteristics of vessels involved in navigational hazards. A binomial logit model was employed to evaluate the association of vessel attributes and the kinematic conditions with conflict severity levels. Results show a positive association for vessels of small gross tonnage, overall vessel length, vessel height and draft with conflict risk. Conflicts involving a pair of dynamic vessels sailing at low speeds also have similar effects.

Statistical analysis of conflict involvements in port water navigation

With increasing rate of shipping traffic, the risk of collisions in busy and congested port waters is likely to rise. However, due to low collision frequencies in port waters, it is difficult to analyze such risk in a sound statistical manner. A convenient approach of investigating navigational collision risk is the application of the traffic conflict techniques, which have potential to overcome the difficulty of obtaining statistical soundness. This study aims at examining port water conflicts in order to understand the characteristics of collision risk with regard to vessels involved, conflict locations, traffic and kinematic conditions. A hierarchical binomial logit model, which considers the potential correlations between observation-units, i.e., vessels, involved in the same conflicts, is employed to evaluate the association of explanatory variables with conflict severity levels. Results show higher likelihood of serious conflicts for vessels of small gross tonnage or small overall length. The probability of serious conflict also increases at locations where vessels have more varied headings, such as traffic intersections and anchorages; becoming more critical at night time. Findings from this research should assist both navigators operating in port waters as well as port authorities overseeing navigational management.

Proactive management of collision risks in port waters using navigational traffic conflicts

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns in many seaports. To address this safety concern, a comprehensive and structured method of collision risk management is necessary. Traditionally management of port water collision risks has been relied on historical collision data. However, this collision-data-based approach is hampered by several shortcomings, such as randomness and rarity of collision occurrence leading to obtaining insufficient number of samples for a sound statistical analysis, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these shortcomings is the navigational traffic conflict technique that uses traffic conflicts as an alternative to the collision data. This paper proposes a collision risk management method by utilizing the principles of this technique. This risk management method allows safety analysts to diagnose safety deficiencies in a proactive manner, which, consequently, has great potential for managing collision risks in a fast, reliable and efficient manner.

Navigational safety in port waters: Techniques for modeling collision risk

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Continuing growth of shipping traffic in number and sizes is likely to result in increased number of traffic movements, which consequently could result higher risk of collisions in these restricted waters. This continually increasing safety concern warrants a comprehensive technique for modeling collision risk in port waters, particularly for modeling the probability of collision events and the associated consequences (i.e., injuries and fatalities). A number of techniques have been utilized for modeling the risk qualitatively, semi-quantitatively and quantitatively. These traditional techniques mostly rely on historical collision data, often in conjunction with expert judgments. However, these techniques are hampered by several shortcomings, such as randomness and rarity of collision occurrence leading to obtaining insufficient number of collision counts for a sound statistical analysis, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these shortcomings is the navigational traffic conflict technique (NTCT), which uses traffic conflicts as an alternative to the collisions for modeling the probability of collision events quantitatively. This article explores the existing techniques for modeling collision risk in port waters. In particular, it identifies the advantages and limitations of the traditional techniques and highlights the potentials of the NTCT in overcoming the limitations. In view of the principles of the NTCT, a structured method for managing collision risk is proposed. This risk management method allows safety analysts to diagnose safety deficiencies in a proactive manner, which consequently has great potential for managing collision risk in a fast, reliable and efficient manner.

R&D investment in green building initiatives in Western Australia

This paper reports on a current case study of green building initiatives implemented by the Western Australian government in the past decade. The intent is to provide a qualitative understanding of past R&D investments in the Australian built environment. The case method was selected to illustrate three sector-based investments, one of which is reported on here. The conceptual framework underpinning interview design and data analysis uses dynamic capability, absorptive capacity and open innovation theories to better understand the organisational environment in which these initiatives were implemented. Data has been thematically coded to criteria identified from the literature to illustrate organisational characteristics which may have contributed to dissemination and impact. The results will be combined with two further case studies (construction safety and digital modelling), to inform this research. This industry supported project will conclude by developing policy guidelines for future R&D investment in the built environment.

The Punitive Turn in Juvenile Justice: Cultures of Control and Rights of Compliance in Western Europe and the USA

Separate systems of justice for children and young people have always been beset by issues of contradiction and compromise. There is compelling evidence that such ambiguity is currently being `resolved' by a greater governmental resort to neo-conservative punitive and correctional interventions and a neo-liberal responsibilizing mentality in which the protection historically afforded to children is rapidly dissolving. This resurgent authoritarianism appears all the more anachronistic when it is set against the widely held commitment to act within the guidelines established by various children's rights conventions. Of note is the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child, frequently described as the most ratified human rights convention in the world, but lamentably also the most violated. Based on international research on juvenile custody rates and children's rights compliance in the USA and Western Europe, this article examines why and to what extent `American exceptionalism' might be permeating European nation states.

Reconstructing the event stratigraphy from the complex structural - stratigraphic architecture of an Archaean volcanic – intrusive – sedimentary succession : the Boorara Domain, Eastern Goldfields Superterrane, Western Australia

Two main deformational phases are recognised in the Archaean Boorara Domain of the Kalgoorlie Terrane, Eastern Goldfields Superterrane, Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia, primarily involving southover- north thrust faulting that repeated and thickened the stratigraphy, followed by east northeast – west-southwest shortening that resulted in macroscale folding of the greenstone lithologies. The domain preserves mid-greenschist facies metamorphic grade, with an increase to lower amphibolite metamorphic grade towards the north of the region. As a result of the deformation and metamorphism, individual stratigraphic horizons are difficult to trace continuously throughout the entire domain. Volcanological and sedimentological textures and structures, primary lithological contacts, petrography and geochemistry have been used to correlate lithofacies between faultbounded structural blocks. The correlated stratigraphic sequence for the Boorara Domain comprises quartzo-feldspathic turbidite packages, overlain by high-Mg tholeiitic basalt (lower basalt), coherent and clastic dacite facies, intrusive and extrusive komatiite units, an overlying komatiitic basalt unit (upper basalt), and at the stratigraphic top of the sequence, volcaniclastic quartz-rich turbidites. Reconstruction of the stratigraphy and consideration of emplacement dynamics has allowed reconstruction of the emplacement history and setting of the preserved sequence. This involves a felsic, mafic and ultramafic magmatic system emplaced as high-level intrusions, with localised emergent volcanic centres, into a submarine basin in which active sedimentation was occurring.