Conditional Confidence Interval for the Scale Parameter of a Weibull Distribution

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62F25, 62F03.

Bayesian Prediction of Weibull Distribution Based on Fixed and Random Sample Size

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62E16, 65C05, 65C20.

Bayesian and Frequentist Two-Sample Predictions of the Inverse Weibull Model Based on Generalized Order Statistics

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62E16,62F15, 62H12, 62M20.

Caracterização analítica e geométrica da metodologia geral de determinação de distribuições de Weibull para o regime eólico e suas aplicações

O regime eólico de uma região pode ser descrito por distribuição de frequências que fornecem informações e características extremamente necessárias para uma possível implantação de sistemas eólicos de captação de energia na região e consequentes aplicações no meio rural em regiões afastadas. Estas características, tais como a velocidade média anual, a variância das velocidades registradas e a densidade da potência eólica média horária, podem ser obtidas pela frequência de ocorrências de determinada velocidade, que por sua vez deve ser estudada através de expressões analíticas. A função analítica mais adequada para distribuições eólicas é a função de densidade de Weibull, que pode ser determinada por métodos numéricos e regressões lineares. O objetivo deste trabalho é caracterizar analítica e geometricamente todos os procedimentos metodológicos necessários para a realização de uma caracterização completa do regime eólico de uma região e suas aplicações na região de Botucatu - SP, visando a determinar o potencial energético para implementação de turbinas eólicas. Assim, foi possível estabelecer teoremas relacionados com a forma de caracterização do regime eólico, estabelecendo a metodologia concisa analiticamente para a definição dos parâmetros eólicos de qualquer região a ser estudada. Para o desenvolvimento desta pesquisa, utilizou-se um anemômetro da CAMPBELL.

Survival Extrapolation In The Presence Of Cause Specific Hazards.

Health economic evaluations require estimates of expected survival from patients receiving different interventions, often over a lifetime. However, data on the patients of interest are typically only available for a much shorter follow-up time, from randomised trials or cohorts. Previous work showed how to use general population mortality to improve extrapolations of the short-term data, assuming a constant additive or multiplicative effect on the hazards for all-cause mortality for study patients relative to the general population. A more plausible assumption may be a constant effect on the hazard for the specific cause of death targeted by the treatments. To address this problem, we use independent parametric survival models for cause-specific mortality among the general population. Because causes of death are unobserved for the patients of interest, a polyhazard model is used to express their all-cause mortality as a sum of latent cause-specific hazards. Assuming proportional cause-specific hazards between the general and study populations then allows us to extrapolate mortality of the patients of interest to the long term. A Bayesian framework is used to jointly model all sources of data. By simulation, we show that ignoring cause-specific hazards leads to biased estimates of mean survival when the proportion of deaths due to the cause of interest changes through time. The methods are applied to an evaluation of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for the prevention of sudden cardiac death among patients with cardiac arrhythmia. After accounting for cause-specific mortality, substantial differences are seen in estimates of life years gained from implantable cardioverter defibrillators.

Modified Steels for Cold-Forming U-Bolts Used In Leaf Springs Systems

In this work, a low alloy steel and a fabrication process were developed to produce U-Bolts for commercial vehicles. Thus, initially five types of no-heat treated steel were developed with different additions of chrome, nickel, and silicon to produce strain hardening effect during cold-forming processing of the U-Bolts, assuring the required mechanical properties. The new materials exhibited a fine perlite and ferrite microstructure due to aluminum and vanadium additions, well known as grain size refiners. The mechanical properties were evaluated in a servo-hydraulic test machine system-MTS 810 according to ASTM A370-03; E739 and E08m-00 standards. The microstructure and fractography analyses of the cold-formed steels were performed by using optical and scanning electronic microscope techniques. To evaluate the performance of the steels and the production process, fatigue tests were carried out under load control (tensile-tensile), R = 0.1 and f = 30 Hz. The Weibull statistic methodology was used for the analysis of the fatigue results. At the end of this work the 0.21% chrome content steel, Alloy 2, presented the best fatigue performance.

Mechanical properties and cytotoxicity of 3Y-TZP bioceramics reinforced with Al(2)O(3) particles

The influence of Al(2)O(3) addition and sintering parameters on the mechanical properties and cytotoxicity of tetragonal ZrO(2)-3 mol% Y(2)O(3) ceramics was evaluated. Samples containing 0, 10, 20 and 30 wt.% of Al(2)O(3) particles were prepared by cold uniaxial pressing (80 MPa) and sintered in air at 1500, 1550 and 1600 degrees C for 120 min. The effects of the sintering conditions on the microstructure were analyzed by X-ray diffraction analysis and scanning electron microscopy. Hardness and fracture toughness were determined by the Vickers indentation method and the mechanical resistance by four-point bending tests. As a preliminary biological evaluation, ""in vitro"" cytotoxicity tests were realized to determine the cytotoxic level of the ZrO(2)-Al(2)O(3) composites, using the neutral red uptake method with NCTC clones L929 from the American Type Culture Collection (ATCC) bank. Fully dense ceramic materials were obtained with a hardness ranging between 1340 HV and 1585 HV, depending on the amount of Al(2)O(3) in the ZrO(2) matrix. On the other hand, no significant influence of the Al(2)O(3) addition on fracture toughness was observed, exhibiting values near 8 MPa m(1/2) for all compositions and sintering conditions studied. The non-cytotoxic behavior, the elevated fracture toughness, the good bending strength (sigma(f) = 690 MPa) and the elevated Weibull`s modulus (m = 11) exhibited by the material, show that these ceramic composites are highly suitable biomaterials for dental implant applications. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd and Techna Group S.r.l. All rights reserved.

Influence diagnostics for polyhazard models in the presence of covariates

In this paper, we present various diagnostic methods for polyhazard models. Polyhazard models are a flexible family for fitting lifetime data. Their main advantage over the single hazard models, such as the Weibull and the log-logistic models, is to include a large amount of nonmonotone hazard shapes, as bathtub and multimodal curves. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. A discussion of the computation of the likelihood displacement as well as the normal curvature in the local influence method are presented. Finally, an example with real data is given for illustration.

The exponentiated generalized gamma distribution with application to lifetime data

A four-parameter extension of the generalized gamma distribution capable of modelling a bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is defined and studied. The beauty and importance of this distribution lies in its ability to model monotone and non-monotone failure rate functions, which are quite common in lifetime data analysis and reliability. The new distribution has a number of well-known lifetime special sub-models, such as the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated generalized half-normal, exponentiated gamma and generalized Rayleigh, among others. We derive two infinite sum representations for its moments. We calculate the density of the order statistics and two expansions for their moments. The method of maximum likelihood is used for estimating the model parameters and the observed information matrix is obtained. Finally, a real data set from the medical area is analysed.

Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Slow crack growth and reliability of dental ceramics

Objective. To determine the slow crack growth (SCG) and Weibull parameters of five dental ceramics: a vitreous porcelain (V), a leucite-based porcelain (D), a leucite-based glass-ceramic (E1), a lithium disilicate glass-ceramic (E2) and a glass-infiltrated alumina composite (IC). Methods. Eighty disks (empty set 12mm x 1.1mm thick) of each material were constructed according to manufacturers` recommendations and polished. The stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient (n) was obtained by dynamic fatigue test, and specimens were tested in biaxial flexure at five stress rates immersed in artificial saliva at 37 degrees C. Weibull parameters were calculated for the 30 specimens tested at 1MPa/s in artificial saliva at 37 degrees C. The 80 specimens were distributed as follows: 10 for each stress rate (10(-2), 10(-1), 10(1), 10(2) MPa/s), 10 for inert strength (10(2) MPa/s, silicon oil) and 30 for 10(0) MPa/s. Fractographic analysis was also performed to investigate the fracture origin. Results. E2 showed the lowest slow crack growth susceptibility coefficient (17.2), followed by D (20.4) and V (26.3). E1 and IC presented the highest n values (30.1 and 31.1, respectively). Porcelain V presented the lowest Weibull modulus (5.2). All other materials showed similar Weibull modulus values, ranging from 9.4 to 11.7. Fractographic analysis indicated that for porcelain D, glass-ceramics E1 and E2, and composite IC crack deflection was the main toughening mechanism. Significance. This study provides a detailed microstructural and slow crack growth characterization of widely used dental ceramics. This is important from a clinical standpoint to assist the clinician in choosing the best ceramic material for each situation as well as predicting its clinical longevity. It also can be helpful in developing new materials for dental prostheses. (c) 2010 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring Bond Strength Between Fiber Post and Root Dentin: A Comparison of Different Tests

Purpose The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of bond strength tests to accurately measure the bond strength of fiber posts luted into root canals Materials and Methods The test methods studied were hourglass microtensile (HM), push-out (PS), modified push out (MP) and pull out (PL) The evaluated parameters were bond strength values, reliability (using Weibull analysis), failure mode (using confocal microscopy), and stress distribution (using finite element analysis) Forty human intact single rooted and endodontically treated teeth were divided into four groups Each group was assigned one of the test methods The samples in the HM and PS groups were 1 0 +/- 0 1 mm thick, the HM samples were hourglass shaped and the PS samples were disk shaped For the PL and MP groups, each 1 mm dentin slice was luted with a fiber post piece Three dimensional models of each group were made and stress was analyzed based on Von Mises criteria Results PL provided the highest values of bond strength followed by MP both of which also had greater amounts of adhesive failures PS showed the highest frequency of cohesive failures MP showed a more homogeneous stress distribution and a higher Weibull modulus Conclusion The specimen design directly influences the biomechanical behavior of bond strength tests

Effect of ion exchange on strength and slow crack growth of a dental porcelain

Objectives. To determine the effect of ion exchange on slow crack growth (SCG) parameters (n, stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient, and sigma(f0), scaling parameter) and Weibull parameters (m, Weibull modulus, and sigma(0), characteristic strength) of a dental porcelain. Methods. 160 porcelain discs were fabricated according to manufacturer`s instructions, polished through 1 mu m and divided into two groups: GC (control) and GI (submitted to an ion exchange procedure using a KNO(3) paste at 470 degrees C for 15 min). SCG parameters were determined by biaxial flexural strength test in artificial saliva at 37 degrees C using five constant stress rates (n =10). 20 specimens of each group were tested at 1 MPa/s to determine Weibull parameters. The SPT diagram was constructed using the least-squares fit of the strength data versus probability of failure. Results. Mean values of m and sigma(0) (95% confidence interval), n and sigma(f0) (standard deviation) were, respectively: 13.8 (10.1-18.8) and 60.4 (58.5 - 62.2), 24.1 (2.5) and 58.1 (0.01) for GC and 7.4 (5.3 -10.0) and 136.8 (129.1-144.7), 36.7 (7.3) and 127.9 (0.01) for GI. Fracture stresses (MPa) calculated using the SPT diagram for lifetimes of 1 day, 1 year and 10 years (at a 5% failure probability) were, respectively, 31.8, 24.9 and 22.7 for GC and 71.2, 60.6 and 56.9 for GI. Significance. For the porcelain tested, the ion exchange process improved strength and resistance to SCG, however, the material`s reliability decreased. The predicted fracture stress at 5% failure probability for a lifetime of 10 years was also higher for the ion treated group. (C) 009 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of the microstructure on the lifetime of dental ceramics

Objectives. To evaluate the effect of the microstructure on the Weibull and slow crack growth (SCG) parameters and on the lifetime of three ceramics used as framework materials for fixed partial dentures (FPDs) (YZ - Vita In-Ceram YZ; IZ - Vita In-Ceram Zirconia; AL - Vita In-Ceram AL) and of two veneering porcelains (VM7 and VM9). Methods. Bar-shaped specimens were fabricated according to the manufacturer`s instructions. Specimens were tested in three-point flexure in 37 degrees C artificial saliva. Weibull analysis (n = 30) and a constant stress-rate test (n = 10) were used to determine the Weibull modulus (m) and SCG coefficient (n), respectively. Microstructural and fractographic analyzes were performed using SEM. ANOVA and Tukey`s test (alpha = 0.05) were used to statistically analyze data obtained with both microstructural and fractographic analyzes. Results. YZ and AL presented high crystalline content and low porosity (0.1-0.2%). YZ had the highest characteristic strength (sigma(0)) value (911 MPa) followed by AL (488 MPa) and IZ (423 MPa). Lower sigma(0) values were observed for the porcelains (68-75 MPa). Except for IZ and VM7, m values were similar among the ceramic materials. Higher n values were found for YZ (76) and AL (72), followed by IZ (54) and the veneering materials (36-44). Lifetime predictions showed that YZ was the material with the best mechanical performance. The size of the critical flaw was similar among the framework materials (34-48 mu m) and among the porcelains (75-86 mu m). Significance. The microstructure influenced the mechanical and SCG behavior of the studied materials and, consequently, the lifetime predictions. (C) 2011 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fatigue life and failure modes of crowns systems with a modified framework design

Objectives: To evaluate the effect of framework design on the fatigue life and failure modes of metal ceramic (MC, Ni-Cr alloy core, VMK 95 porcelain veneer), glass-infiltrated alumina (ICA, In-Ceram Alumina/VM7), and veneered yttria-stabilized tetragonal zirconia polycrystals (Y-TZP, IPSe.max ZirCAD/IPS e.max,) crowns. Methods: Sixty composite resin tooth replicas of a prepared maxillary first molar were produced to receive crowns systems of a standard (MCs, ICAs, and Y-TZPs, n = 10 each) or a modified framework design (MCm, ICAm, and Y-TZPm, n = 10 each). Fatigue loading was delivered with a spherical steel indenter (3.18 mm radius) on the center of the occlusal surface using r-ratio fatigue (30-300 N) until completion of 10(6) cycles or failure. Fatigue was interrupted every 125,000 cycles for damage evaluation. Weibull distribution fits and contour plots were used for examining differences between groups. Failure mode was evaluated by light polarized and SEM microscopy. Results: Weibull analysis showed the highest fatigue life for MC crowns regardless of framework design. No significant difference (confidence bound overlaps) was observed between ICA and Y-TZP with or without framework design modification. Y-TZPm crowns presented fatigue life in the range of MC crowns. No porcelain veneer fracture was observed in the MC groups, whereas ICAs presented bulk fracture and ICAm failed mainly through the veneer. Y-TZP crowns failed through chipping within the veneer, without core fractures. Conclusions: Framework design modification did not improve the fatigue life of the crown systems investigated. Y-TZPm crowns showed comparable fatigue life to MC groups. Failure mode varied according to crown system. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.