Data acquisition and processing at ocean bottom for a Tsunami warning system

The design and development of a Bottom Pressure Recorder for a Tsunami Early Warning System is described here. The special requirements that it should satisfy for the specific application of deployment at ocean bed and pressure monitoring of the water column above are dealt with. A high-resolution data digitization and low circuit power consumption are typical ones. The implementation details of the data sensing and acquisition part to meet these are also brought out. The data processing part typically encompasses a Tsunami detection algorithm that should detect an event of significance in the background of a variety of periodic and aperiodic noise signals. Such an algorithm and its simulation are presented. Further, the results of sea trials carried out on the system off the Chennai coast are presented. The high quality and fidelity of the data prove that the system design is robust despite its low cost and with suitable augmentations, is ready for a full-fledged deployment at ocean bed. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data.

An early-warning system for TNE

This report for Jisc1 is based on feedback from the UK higher education (HE) sector on current (2014) transnational education (TNE) activities and future plans, including the locations of such activity. The exercise includes feedback on current and future TNE delivery modes. It is further based on feedback of a more technical nature, for example, on what the network is used for in TNE and how such IT operations are managed abroad. The resulting narrative is a synthesis of these two distinct voices from within UK higher education institutions (HEIs).

Statement submitted by the United States of Brazil to the President of the United States of America as arbitrator : under the provisions of the treaty concluded september 7, 1889, between Brazil and the Argentine Republic

Exposição que os Estados Unidos do Brazil apresentam ao Presidente dos Estados Unidos da América como árbitro seguindo as estipulações no Tratado de 7 de setembro de 1889, concluído entre o Brazil e a Republica Argentina.

Framework for a pro-poor regional strategy on sustainable aquatic resources management in Asia-Pacific: a statement of understanding and recommendations

This statement was prepared by the participants of the FAO/NACA-STREAM Workshop on Aquatic Resources and Livelihoods: Connecting Policy and People, 17-19 March 2005, in Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines. This was the concluding event of the FAO Technical Cooperation Program (TCP) project entitled “Assistance in Poverty Alleviation through Improved Aquatic Resources Management in Asia-Pacific.” The purpose of the workshop was to review and share experiences of the NACA-STREAM Initiative, build consensus on the value of livelihoods approaches in aquatic resources management and poverty alleviation, and identify ways of promoting livelihoods approaches throughout the region. (Pdf contains 2 pages).

Warning to navigators: IPCC report on climate change mitigation

6 p.

Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

Warning signs unheeded in South Pacific invertebrate trade

Nearshore marine resources play a significant role in the lives of South Pacific islanders and can be critical to the economies of nations in the region. However, few countries have adequate management controls in place to ensure harvests remain at sustainable levels, and so determining current levels of utilization is far from easy. A lack of information about the volume of both domestic and international trade in marine invertebrates in high demand is a growing concern. Further hindering management and conservation efforts is the little available background biological information to allow for population assessments, according to this new study on the global trade in South Pacific marine invertebrates.

Stall warning by blade pressure signature analysis

At low mass flow rates axial compressors suffer from flow instabilities leading to stall and surge. The inception process of these instabilities has been widely researched in the past - primarily with the aim of predicting or averting stall onset. In recent times, attention has shifted to conditions well before stall and has focussed on the level of irregularity in the blade passing signature in the rotor tip region. In general, this irregularity increases in intensity as the flow rate through the compressor is reduced. Attempts have been made to develop stall warning/avoidance procedures based on the level of the flow irregularity, but little effort has been made to characterise the irregularity, or to understand its underlying causes. Work on this project has revealed for the first time that the increase in irregularity in the blade passing signature is highly dependent on both tip-clearance and eccentricity. In a compressor with small, uniform, tip-clearance, the increase in blade passing irregularity which accompanies a reduction in flow rate will be modest. If the tip-clearance is enlarged, however, there will be a sharp rise in irregularity at all circumferential locations. In a compressor with eccentric tip-clearance, the increase in irregularity will only occur in the part of the annulus where the tip-clearance is largest, regardless of the average clearance level. In this paper, some attention is also given to the question of whether this irregularity observed in the pre-stall flow field is due to random turbulence, or to some form of coherent flow structure. Detailed flow measurements reveal that the latter is the case. From these findings, it is clear that a stall warning system based on blade passing signature irregularity will not be viable in an aero-engine where tip-clearance size and eccentricity change during each flight cycle and over the life of the compressor. Copyright © 2011 by ASME.

Stall Warning by Blade Pressure Signature Analysis

At low mass flow rates, axial compressors suffer from flow instabilities leading to stall and surge. The inception process of these instabilities has been widely researched in the past---primarily with the aim of predicting or averting stall onset. In recent times, attention has shifted to conditions well before stall and has focused on the level of irregularity in the blade passing signature in the rotor tip region. In general, the irregularity increases in intensity as the flow rate through the compressor is reduced. Attempts have been made to develop stall warning/avoidance procedures based on the level of flow irregularity, but little effort has been made to characterize the irregularity itself, or to understand its underlying cause. Work on this project has revealed for the first time that the increase in irregularity in the blade passing signature is highly dependent on both tip-clearance size and eccentricity. In a compressor with small, uniform, tip-clearance, the increase in blade passing irregularity that accompanies a reduction in flow rate will be modest. If the tip-clearance is enlarged, however, there will be a sharp rise in irregularity at all circumferential locations. In a compressor with eccentric tip-clearance, the increase in irregularity will only occur in the part of the annulus where the tip-clearance is largest, regardless of the average clearance level. In this paper, some attention is also given to the question of whether the irregularity observed in the prestall flow field is due to random turbulence or to some form of coherent flow structure. Detailed flow measurements reveal that the latter is the case. From these findings, it is clear that a stall warning system based on blade passing signature irregularity would be difficult to implement in an aero-engine where tip-clearance size and eccentricity change during each flight cycle and over the life of the compressor. © 2013 American Society of Mechanical Engineers.

Characteristic rainfall for warning of debris flows

A characteristic rainfall is introduced to overcome the difficulties encountered in determining a critical rainfall value for triggering debris flow. The characteristic value is defined as the rainfall at which debris-flow occurrence probability shows a rapid increase, and can be used as a warning rainfall threshold for debris flows. Investigation of recorded debris flows and 24-hour rainfall data at Jiangjia basin, Yunnan Province, in southwestern China, demonstrates the existence of such a characteristic rainfall. It was found that the characteristic rainfall corresponds to the daily rainfall of 90% cumulative probability by analyzing the basin's daily rainfall histogram. The result provides a simple and useful method for estimating a debris-flow warning rainfall threshold from the daily rainfall distribution. It was applied to estimate the debris-flow warning rainfall threshold for the Subaohe basin, a watershed in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake zone with many physical characteristics similar to those of the Jiangjia basin.