Influência de sistemas meteorológicos de grande escala sobre a distribuição de raios na Amazônia Oriental, com aplicação no setor elétrico

Foi feito um estudo da associação entre a densidade de ocorrência de raios com condições meteorológicas no leste da região Amazônica entre os anos de 2006 a 2008. A região estudada foi limitada por uma grade geográfica entre as latitudes 0º a -10º e longitudes -53º a -43º. Foram desenvolvidos métodos computacionais de processamento estatístico e geração de mapas de ocorrências de raios para diferentes intervalos de tempo. Esses métodos foram aplicados para determinar os pontos de altas ocorrências de raios ao longo de linhas de transmissão de energia elétrica, a fim de oferecer subsídios para a proteção e operação dos sistemas elétricos da região. Foram utilizados dados da rede de detecção de raios do SIPAM para redimensionar a detecção do sistema de alcance intercontinental STARNET, e subsequentemente, foram obtidos mapas de densidade de raios mais uniformes e realistas. Esses mapas foram interpretados em períodos semanais e sazonais, considerando as observações simultâneas de chuva, vento, radiação de onda longa e a presença de sistemas meteorológicos de grande escala. Zona de Convergência Intertropical e Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZCIT, ZCAS) definidos pela convergência de ventos e anomalias negativas de Radiação de Ondas Longas ( ROL). Os resultados mostraram boa correspondência entre as áreas de convecção e a intensa ocorrência de raios. Nas regiões de mais alta atividade elétrica atmosférica, foi observada ocorrência de convergência dos ventos e anomalias negativas de ROL, para situações de presença de ZCAS e ZCIT sobre a região. A atividade de raios também coincidiu, com algumas exceções, com áreas de maior precipitação em períodos semanais. Foi observado também que, durante um trimestre seco, os segmentos de linhas de transmissão de Mojú-Tailândia e Jacundá-Marabá apresentaram maior incidência de raios. O pico da densidade de raios chegou a 18 raios/km²/trimestre em alguns locais. Durante o trimestre chuvoso, a densidade geral de raios foi 86% maior e apresentou distribuição espacial mais uniforme quando comparada com um trimestre seco. Este estudo mostrou não somente como as características meteorológicas influenciaram na distribuição e quantidade raios, mas também que a elevada atividade de descargas elétricas na região deve ser uma preocupação importante para os sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica e outras atividades humanas na Amazônia Oriental.

A oscilação Madden - Julian na Amazônia Oriental: variáveis superfíciais

Tendo como foco as múltiplas escalas de tempo que atuam na Amazônia, este trabalho foi desenvolvido com o objetivo de investigar a possível influencia da Oscilação Madden – Julian (OMJ) em elementos turbulentos da CLP. A OMJ foi identificada a partir de 30 anos de dados de reanálise de radiação de onda longa (ROL) e componente zonal do vento (u). As grandezas turbulentas foram estudadas a partir da variância, covariância e coeficiente de correlação de um conjunto de dados de resposta rápida coletado na torre micrometeorológica de Caxiuanã (PA), e tratados com a Transformada em Ondeletas (TO) para se obter a contribuição de cada escala para estes momentos estatísticos. A análise dos 30 anos de dados de ROL e u mostrou que a ocorrência da OMJ está ligada com o fenômeno do El Niño/Oscilação Sul (ENOS), bem como influência do ENOS no tempo da região amazônica pode estar associado a presença ou não da OMJ. Foi observado que anos de El Niño tendem a desfavorecer a ocorrência da OMJ e anos de La Niña tendem a favorecer o desenvolvimento da oscilação. Caso uma OMJ se desenvolva durante um episodio de El Niño, a oscilação pode influenciar a temperatura, a velocidade do vento e a precipitação de forma diferente ao do El Niño. A análise por fase da OMJ mostrou que, em Belém, há diferença significativa na temperatura máxima e na precipitação entre cada fase, porém, a temperatura mínima e o módulo do vento apresentaram pouca diferença. Os fluxos cinemáticos turbulentos analisados, por escala, em três horários distintos, foram mais diferentes durante o período diurno, principalmente w’T’ e w’q’. A diferença entre fase ativa e fase inativa foi reduzindo com passar do dia, durante o período de transição dia – noite, poucas escalas tiveram diferença significativa, e durante a noite, nenhuma escala teve nível de confiança acima ou igual a 95%. Estes resultados indicam que a convecção diurna é o mecanismo responsável por esta diferença e como a OMJ atua como uma grande célula convectiva, a convecção local é amplificada, explicando a grande diferença observada entre as fases durante o período diurno.

Modelos de estimativa da radiação atmosférica em função da temperatura, umidade e dos índices radiométricos Kt e Kd para Botucatu - SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Modelling the surface circulation and thermal structure of a tropical reservoir using three-dimensional hydrodynamic lake model and remote-sensing data

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A physics-based correction model for homogenizing sub-daily temperature series

A new physics-based technique for correcting inhomogeneities present in sub-daily temperature records is proposed. The approach accounts for changes in the sensor-shield characteristics that affect the energy balance dependent on ambient weather conditions (radiation, wind). An empirical model is formulated that reflects the main atmospheric processes and can be used in the correction step of a homogenization procedure. The model accounts for short- and long-wave radiation fluxes (including a snow cover component for albedo calculation) of a measurement system, such as a radiation shield. One part of the flux is further modulated by ventilation. The model requires only cloud cover and wind speed for each day, but detailed site-specific information is necessary. The final model has three free parameters, one of which is a constant offset. The three parameters can be determined, e.g., using the mean offsets for three observation times. The model is developed using the example of the change from the Wild screen to the Stevenson screen in the temperature record of Basel, Switzerland, in 1966. It is evaluated based on parallel measurements of both systems during a sub-period at this location, which were discovered during the writing of this paper. The model can be used in the correction step of homogenization to distribute a known mean step-size to every single measurement, thus providing a reasonable alternative correction procedure for high-resolution historical climate series. It also constitutes an error model, which may be applied, e.g., in data assimilation approaches.

Understanding the performance of the FLake model over two African Great Lakes

The ability of the one-dimensional lake model FLake to represent the mixolimnion temperatures for tropical conditions was tested for three locations in East Africa: Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika's northern and southern basins. Meteorological observations from surrounding automatic weather stations were corrected and used to drive FLake, whereas a comprehensive set of water temperature profiles served to evaluate the model at each site. Careful forcing data correction and model configuration made it possible to reproduce the observed mixed layer seasonality at Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika (northern and southern basins), with correct representation of both the mixed layer depth and water temperatures. At Lake Kivu, mixolimnion temperatures predicted by FLake were found to be sensitive both to minimal variations in the external parameters and to small changes in the meteorological driving data, in particular wind velocity. In each case, small modifications may lead to a regime switch, from the correctly represented seasonal mixed layer deepening to either completely mixed or permanently stratified conditions from similar to 10 m downwards. In contrast, model temperatures were found to be robust close to the surface, with acceptable predictions of near-surface water temperatures even when the seasonal mixing regime is not reproduced. FLake can thus be a suitable tool to parameterise tropical lake water surface temperatures within atmospheric prediction models. Finally, FLake was used to attribute the seasonal mixing cycle at Lake Kivu to variations in the near-surface meteorological conditions. It was found that the annual mixing down to 60m during the main dry season is primarily due to enhanced lake evaporation and secondarily to the decreased incoming long wave radiation, both causing a significant heat loss from the lake surface and associated mixolimnion cooling.

Cloud observations in Switzerland using hemispherical sky cameras

We present observations of total cloud cover and cloud type classification results from a sky camera network comprising four stations in Switzerland. In a comprehensive intercomparison study, records of total cloud cover from the sky camera, long-wave radiation observations, Meteosat, ceilometer, and visual observations were compared. Total cloud cover from the sky camera was in 65–85% of cases within ±1 okta with respect to the other methods. The sky camera overestimates cloudiness with respect to the other automatic techniques on average by up to 1.1 ± 2.8 oktas but underestimates it by 0.8 ± 1.9 oktas compared to the human observer. However, the bias depends on the cloudiness and therefore needs to be considered when records from various observational techniques are being homogenized. Cloud type classification was conducted using the k-Nearest Neighbor classifier in combination with a set of color and textural features. In addition, a radiative feature was introduced which improved the discrimination by up to 10%. The performance of the algorithm mainly depends on the atmospheric conditions, site-specific characteristics, the randomness of the selected images, and possible visual misclassifications: The mean success rate was 80–90% when the image only contained a single cloud class but dropped to 50–70% if the test images were completely randomly selected and multiple cloud classes occurred in the images.

(Table 1) Sea ice and snow characteristics and heat fluxes observed during R/V Aurora Australis cruise to East Antarctica in September/October 2007

The properties of snow on East Antarctic sea ice off Wilkes Land were examined during the Sea Ice Physics and Ecosystem Experiment (SIPEX) in late winter of 2007, focusing on the interaction with sea ice. This observation includes 11 transect lines for the measurement of ice thickness, freeboard, and snow depth, 50 snow pits on 13 ice floes, and diurnal variation of surface heat flux on three ice floes. The detailed profiling of topography along the transects and the d18O, salinity, and density datasets of snow made it possible to examine the snow-sea-ice interaction quantitatively for the first time in this area. In general, the snow displayed significant heterogeneity in types, thickness (mean: 0.14 +- 0.13 m), and density (325 +- 38 kg/m**3), as reported in other East Antarctic regions. High salinity was confined to the lowest 0.1 m. Salinity and d18O data within this layer revealed that saline water originated from the surface brine of sea ice in 20% of the total sites and from seawater in 80%. From the vertical profiles of snow density, bulk thermal conductivity of snow was estimated as 0.15 W/K/m on average, only half of the value used for numerical sea-ice models. Although the upward heat flux within snow estimated with this value was significantly lower than that within ice, it turned out that a higher value of thermal conductivity (0.3 to 0.4 W/K/m) is preferable for estimating ice growth amount in current numerical models. Diurnal measurements showed that upward conductive heat flux within the snow and net long-wave radiation at the surface seem to play important roles in the formation of snow ice from slush. The detailed surface topography allowed us to compare the air-ice drag coefficients of ice and snow surfaces under neutral conditions, and to examine the possibility of the retrieval of ice thickness distribution from satellite remote sensing. It was found that overall snow cover works to enhance the surface roughness of sea ice rather than moderate it, and increases the drag coefficient by about 10%. As for thickness retrieval, mean ice thickness had a higher correlation with ice surface roughness than mean freeboard or surface elevation, which indicates the potential usefulness of satellite L-band SAR in estimating the ice thickness distribution in the seasonal sea-ice zone.

Long-term environmental time series of continuously collected data in hydroelectric reservoirs in Brazil

Long-term environmental time series of continuously collected data are fundamental to identify and classify pulses and determine their role in aquatic systems. This paper presents a web based archive for limnological and meteorological data collected by integrated system for environmental monitoring (SIMA). The environmental parameters that are measured by SIMA are: chlorophyll-a (µg/L), water surface temperature (ºC), water column temperature by a thermistor string (ºC), turbidity (NTU), pH, dissolved oxygen concentration (mg/L), electric conductivity (µS/cm), wind speed (m/s) and direction (º), relative humidity (%), short wave radiation (W/m**2), barometric pressure (hPa). The data are collected in preprogrammed time interval (1 hour) and are transmitted by satellite in quasi-real time for any user in a range of 2500 km from the acquisition point. So far 11 hydroelectric reservoirs being monitored using the SIMA buoy. A basic statistics (mean and standard deviation) for some parameters and an example of time series were displayed. The main observed problem are divided into sensors and satellite. The sensors problems is due to the environmental characteristics of each water body. In acid waters the sensors of water quality rapidly degrade, and the collected data are invalid. Another problem is the infestation of periphyton in the sensor. SIMA buoy makes the parameters readings every hour, or 24 readings per day. However, not always received all readings because the system requires satellites passing over the buoy antenna to complete the transfer and due to the satellite constellation position, some locations inland are not met as often as necessary to complete all transmissions. This is the more often causes for lack in the time series.