An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Absorption and dispersion by a multiple driven two-level atom

We investigate the absorption and dispersion properties of a two-level atom driven by a polychromatic field. The driving field is composed of a strong resonant (carrier) frequency component and a large number of symmetrically detuned sideband fields (modulators). A rapid increase in the absorption at the central frequency and the collapse of the response of the system from multiple frequencies to a single frequency are predicted to occur when the Rabi frequency of the modulating fields is equal to the Rabi frequency of the carrier field. These are manifestations of the undressing or a disentanglement of the atomic and driving field states, that leads to a collapse of the atom to its ground state. Our calculation permits consideration of the question of the undressing of the driven atom by a multiple-modulated field and the predicted spectra offer a method of observing undressing. Moreover, we find that the absorption and dispersion spectra split into multiplets whose structures depend on the Rabi frequency of the modulating fields. The spectral features can jump between different resonance frequencies by changing the Rabi frequency of the modulating fields or their initial phases, which can have potential applications as a quantum frequency filter.

Effect of varying levels of mental workload on startle eyeblink modulation

Previous research using punctuate reaction time and counting tasks has found that the startle eyeblink reflex is sensitive to attentional demands. The present experiment explored whether startle eyeblink is also modulated during a complex continuous task and is sensitive to different levels of mental workload. Participants (N=14) performed a visual horizontal tracking task either alone (single-task condition) or in combination with a visual gauge monitoring task (multiple-task condition) for three minutes. On some task trials, the startle eyeblink reflex was elicited by a noise burst. Results showed that startle eyeblink was attenuated during both tasks and that the attenuation was greater during the multiple-task condition than during the single-task condition. Subjective ratings, endogenous eyeblink rate, heart period, and heart period variability provided convergent validity of the workload manipulations. The findings suggest that the startle eyeblink is sensitive to the workload demands associated with a continuous visual task. The application of startle eyeblink modulation as a workload metric and the possibility that it may be diagnostic of workload demands in different stimulus modalities is discussed.

On the effect of tracer density on axial dispersion in a batch oscillatory baffled column

In this paper, we report our modelling evaluation on the effect of tracer density on axial dispersion in a batch oscillatory baffled column (OBC). Tracer solution of potassium nitrite, its specific density ranged from 1.0 to 1.5, was used in the study, and was injected to the vertical column from either the top or bottom. Local concentration profiles are measured using conductivity probes at two locations along the height of the column. Using the experimental measured concentration profiles together with both 'Tank-in-Series' and 'Plug Flow with Axial Dispersion' models, axial dispersion coefficients were determined and used to describe the effect of specific tracer density on mixing in the OBC. The results showed that the axial dispersion coefficients evaluated by the two models are very similar in both magnitudes and trends, and the range of variations in such coefficients is generally larger for the bottom injection than for the top one. Empirical correlations linking the mechanical energy for mixing, the specific density of tracer and axial dispersion coefficient were established. Using these correlations, we identified the enhancements of up to 269% on axial dispersion for various specific tracer densities. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Padrão de frugivoria por Tapirus terrestris na Mata Atlântica do norte do Espírito Santo, Brasil

A anta Tapirus terrestris (Linnaeus, 1758), último representante da megafauna Pleistocênica na região Neotropical, representa um importante grupo funcional, pois dispersam uma grande variedade de espécies vegetais, especialmente frutos. No entanto, o padrão de frugivoria da espécie pode variar entre diferentes áreas. Dessa forma, nosso interesse foi investigar o grau de frugivoria da espécie em duas diferentes áreas no estado do Espírito Santo e a sua importância para a dinâmica florestal. Para isso, foram coletadas amostras fecais, através de busca ativa em diferentes ambientes na Reserva Biológica do Córrego do Veado (Rebio Córrego do Veado) e na Reserva Particular do Patrimônio Natural Recanto das Antas (RPPN Recanto das Antas), durante o período de janeiro de 2011 a novembro de 2013. Após a triagem do material biológico, as sementes foram individualizadas, classificadas quanto às características e grupos ecológicos e identificadas até o menor nível taxonômico possível. Foi obtido um esforço amostral de 130 dias, resultando em 325 amostras fecais coletadas, sendo 53,2% da Rebio Córrego do Veado e 46,8% da RPPN Recanto das Antas. Do total de amostras, 41,8% estavam depositadas dentro ou próximas a corpos d’água e 58,2% na serrapilheira/substrato seco. A dieta da anta foi composta por 94,1% de fibras e 5,9% de frutos. Foram encontradas duas vezes mais amostras contendo sementes na RPPN Recanto das Antas do que na Rebio Córrego do Veado. Das 30 morfoespécies encontradas nas amostras, 15 foram identificadas em nível específico, as quais estão distribuídas em oito famílias. As famílias mais representativas foram Anacardiaceae, Fabaceae e Myrtaceae. As espécies mais freqüentemente encontradas nas amostras foram Spondias macrocarpa Engl. e S. venulosa (Engl.) Engl. Do total de sementes encontradas 60% apresentam dispersão zoocórica e 46,7% são sementes grandes e muito grandes e 50% possuem fruto do tipo carnoso. Das morfoespécies encontradas, sete foram registradas em ambas as unidades de conservação, 21 foram encontradas apenas na RPPN Recanto das Antas e duas foram encontradas na Rebio Córrego do Veado. Isso pode indicar que o ambiente na RPPN Recanto das Antas pode fornecer mais frutos que na Rebio Córrego do Veado, o que pode ser um resultado do histórico de perturbações da última reserva. Na década de 1980, 80% da Rebio Córrego do Veado foi queimada em um incêndio e, atualmente, o entorno da reserva é composto principalmente por pastagens. Ao contrário, a RPPN Recanto das Antas, apesar de sua área ter sofrido extração seletiva na década de 50, está inserida no maior remanescente de Mata Atlântica do Espírito Santo. Ainda que a anta possua uma dieta composta por uma variedade de frutos nas áreas de estudo, ela aparenta ser menos frugívora do que em outras áreas da Mata Atlântica. Contudo, é evidente a importância de T. terrestris na dispersão de um grande número de espécies vegetais, especialmente as espécies com sementes grandes, aumentando o recrutamento de espécies de plantas que não são dispersadas por outras espécies animais.

Temperature dependence of the electrical conductivity of vapor grown carbon nanofiber/epoxy composites with different filler dispersion levels

The influence of the dispersion of vapor grown carbon nanofibers (VGCNF) on the electrical properties of VGCNF/epoxy composites has been studied. A homogeneous dispersion of the VGCNF does not imply better electrical properties. The presence of well distributed clusters appears to be a key factor for increasing composite conductivity. It is also shown that the main conduction mechanism has an ionic nature for concentrations below the percolation threshold, while above the percolation threshold it is dominated by hopping between the fillers. Finally, using the granular system theory it is possible to explain the origin of conduction at low temperatures.

The influence of the dispersion method on the electrical properties of vapor-grown carbon nanofiber/epoxy composites

The influence of the dispersion of vapor-grown carbon nanofibers (VGCNF) on the electrical properties of VGCNF/ Epoxy composites has been studied. A homogenous dispersion of the VGCNF does not imply better electrical properties. In fact, it is demonstrated that the most simple of the tested dispersion methods results in higher conductivity, since the presence of well-distributed nanofiber clusters appears to be a key factor for increasing composite conductivity.

Geostatistical Mapping of Outfall Plume Dispersion Data gathered with an autonomous underwater vehicle

The main purpose of this study was to examine the applicability of geostatistical modeling to obtain valuable information for assessing the environmental impact of sewage outfall discharges. The data set used was obtained in a monitoring campaign to S. Jacinto outfall, located off the Portuguese west coast near Aveiro region, using an AUV. The Matheron’s classical estimator was used the compute the experimental semivariogram which was fitted to three theoretical models: spherical, exponential and gaussian. The cross-validation procedure suggested the best semivariogram model and ordinary kriging was used to obtain the predictions of salinity at unknown locations. The generated map shows clearly the plume dispersion in the studied area, indicating that the effluent does not reach the near by beaches. Our study suggests that an optimal design for the AUV sampling trajectory from a geostatistical prediction point of view, can help to compute more precise predictions and hence to quantify more accurately dilution. Moreover, since accurate measurements of plume’s dilution are rare, these studies might be very helpful in the future for validation of dispersion models.

Can varying the number of teams in a shift schedule constitute a preventive strategy?

OBJECTIVE: The study examines the implications for shiftworkers of applying different numbers of teams in the organization of shiftwork. METHODS: The participating operators came from five different companies applying continuous shift rotation systems. The companies shared the same product organization and a common corporate culture belonging to the same multinational company. Each company had a shift system consisting of four, five or six teams, with the proportion of shifts outside day work decreasing as the number of teams increased. Questionnaire and documentary data were used as data sources. RESULTS: Operators in systems with additional teams had more daywork but also more irregular working hours due to both overtime and schedule changes. Operators using six teams used fewer social compensation strategies. Operators in four teams were most satisfied with their work hours. Satisfaction with the time available for various social activities outside work varied inconsistently between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: In rotating systems the application of more teams reduces the number of shifts outside day work. This apparent improvement for shiftworkers was counteracted by a concomitant irregularity produced by greater organizational requirements for flexibility. The balance of this interaction was found to have a critical impact on employees.

Modeling radionuclides dispersion and deposition downwind of a coal-fired power plant

In this study the inhalation doses and respective risk are calculated for the population living within a 20 km radius of a coal-fired power plant. The dispersion and deposition of natural radionuclides were simulated by a Gaussian dispersion model estimating the ground level activity concentration. The annual effective dose and total risk were 0.03205 mSv/y and 1.25 x 10-8, respectively. The effective dose is lower than the limit established by the ICRP and the risk is lower than the limit proposed by the U.S. EPA, which means that the considered exposure does not pose any risk for the public health.

Impact of the Meteorology Conditions on the Particulate Matter Dispersion from an Industrial Complex into Urban and Suburban Areas

The aim of this work was to assess the influence of meteorological conditions on the dispersion of particulate matter from an industrial zone into urban and suburban areas. The particulate matter concentration was related to the most important meteorological variables such as wind direction, velocity and frequency. A coal-fired power plant was considered to be the main emission source with two stacks of 225 m height. A middle point between the two stacks was taken as the centre of two concentric circles with 6 and 20 km radius delimiting the sampling area. About 40 sampling collectors were placed within this area. Meteorological data was obtained from a portable meteorological station placed at approximately 1.7 km to SE from the stacks. Additional data was obtained from the electrical company that runs the coal power plant. These data covers the years from 2006 to the present. A detailed statistical analysis was performed to identify the most frequent meteorological conditions concerning mainly wind speed and direction. This analysis revealed that the most frequent wind blows from Northwest and North and the strongest winds blow from Northwest. Particulate matter deposition was obtained in two sampling campaigns carried out in summer and in spring. For the first campaign the monthly average flux deposition was 1.90 g/m2 and for the second campaign this value was 0.79 g/m2. Wind dispersion occurred predominantly from North to South, away from the nearest residential area, located at about 6 km to Northwest from the stacks. Nevertheless, the higher deposition fluxes occurred in the NW/N and NE/E quadrants. This study was conducted considering only the contribution of particulate matter from coal combustion, however, others sources may be present as well, such as road traffic. Additional chemical analyses and microanalysis are needed to identify the source linkage to flux deposition levels.

Comparative analysis of time-frequency methods estimating the time-varying microstructure of sleep EEG spindles

Proceedings of the Information Technology Applications in Biomedicine, Ioannina - Epirus, Greece, October 26-28, 2006

Potential dementia biomarkers based on the time-varying microstructure of sleep EEG spindles

Proceedings of the 29th Annual International Conference of the IEEE EMBS Cité Internationale, Lyon, France August 23-26, 2007

Hydrogenating activity of Pt/zeolite catalysts focusing acid support and metal dispersion influence

Toluene hydrogenation was studied over catalysts based on Pt supported on large pore zeolites (HUSY and HBEA) with different metal/acid ratios. Acidity of zeolites was assessed by pyridine adsorption followed by FTIR showing only small changes before and after Pt introduction. Metal dispersion was determined by H2–O2 titration and verified by a linear correlation with the intensity of Pt0–CO band obtained by in situ FTIR. It was also observed that the electronic properties of Pt0 clusters were similar for the different catalysts. Catalytic tests showed rapid catalyst deactivation with an activity loss of 80–95% after 60 min of reaction. The turnover frequency of fresh catalysts depended both on metal dispersion and the support. For the same support, it changed by a 1.7-fold (HBEA) and 4.0-fold (HUSY) showing that toluene hydrogenation is structure-sensitive, i.e. hydrogenating activity is not a unique function of accessible metal. This was proposed to be due to the contribution to the overall activity of the hydrogenation of adsorbed toluene on acid sites via hydrogen spillover. Taking into account the role of zeolite acidity, the catalysts series were compared by the activity per total adsorbing sites which was observed to increase steadily with nPt/(nPt + nA). An increase of the accessible Pt atoms leads to an increase on the amount of spilled over hydrogen available in acid sites therefore increasing the overall activity. Pt/HBEA catalysts were found to be more active per total adsorbing site than Pt/HUSY which is proposed to be due to an augmentation in the efficiency of spilled over hydrogen diffusion related to the proximity between Pt clusters and acid sites. The intervention of Lewis acid sites in a greater extent than that measured by pyridine adsorption may also contribute to this higher activity of Pt/HBEA catalysts. These results reinforce the importance of model reactions as a closer perspective to the relevant catalyst properties in reaction conditions.

Dispersion Modelling of Natural Radionuclides 238U, 232Th and 40K Released from Coal-fired Power Plants Operations

The aim of this work was to simulate the radionuclides dispersion in the surrounding area of a coal-fired power plant, operational during the last 25 years. The dispersion of natural radionuclides (236Ra, 232Th and 40K) was simulated by a Gaussian plume dispersion model with three different stability classes estimating the radionuclides concentration at ground level. Measurements of the environmen-tal activity concentrations were carried out by γ-spectrometry and compared with results from the air dispersion and deposition model which showed that the stabil-ity class D causes the dispersion to longer distances up to 20 km from the stacks.