Statistics as a basis for discrimination in the insurance business

The European Court of Justice has held that as from 21 December 2012 insurers may no longer charge men and women differently on the basis of scientific evidence that is statistically linked to their sex, effectively prohibiting the use of sex as a factor in the calculation of premiums and benefits for the purposes of insurance and related financial services throughout the European Union. This ruling marks a sharp turn away from the traditional view that insurers should be allowed to apply just about any risk assessment criterion, so long as it is sustained by the findings of actuarial science. The naïveté behind the assumption that insurers’ recourse to statistical data and probabilistic analysis, given their scientific nature, would suffice to keep them out of harm’s way was exposed. In this article I look at the flaws of this assumption and question whether this judicial decision, whilst constituting a most welcome landmark in the pursuit of equality between men and women, has nonetheless gone too far by saying too little on the million dollar question of what separates admissible criteria of differentiation from inadmissible forms of discrimination.

Graph usage in financial reports: Evidence from Portuguese listed companies

When assessing investment options, investors focus on the graphs of annual reports, despite lack of auditing. If poorly constructed, graphs distort perceptions and lead to inaccurate decisions. This study examines graph usage in all the companies listed on Euronext Lisbon in 2013. The findings suggest that graphs are common in the annual reports of Portuguese companies and that, while there is no evidence of Selectivity Distortion, both Measurement and Orientation Distortions are pervasive. The study recommends the auditing of financial graphs, and urges preparers and users of annual reports to be wary of the possibility of graph distortion.

Graph usage in annual reports, evidence from Norwegian listed companies

As investors and other users of annual reports often focus their attention on graphs, it is important that they portray accurate and reliable information. However, previous studies show that graphs often distort information and mislead users. This study analyses graph usage in annual reports from the 52 most traded Norwegian companies. The findings suggest that Norwegian companies commonly use graphs, and that the graph distortions, presentational enhancement and measurement distortion, are present. No evidence of selectivity was found. This study recommends development of guidelines for graphical disclosure, and advises preparers and users of annual reports to be aware of misleading graphs.

On the impact of overlapping access points in detecting node encounters

Data traces, consisting of logs about the use of mobile and wireless networks, have been used to study the statistics of encounters between mobile nodes, in an attempt to predict the performance of opportunistic networks. Understanding the role and potential of mobile devices as relaying nodes in message dissemination and delivery depends on the knowledge about patterns and number of encounters among nodes. Data traces about the use of WiFi networks are widely available and can be used to extract large datasets of encounters between nodes. However, these logs only capture indirect encounters between nodes, and the resulting encounters datasets might not realistically represent the spatial and temporal behaviour of nodes. This paper addresses the impact of overlapping between the coverage areas of different Access Points of WiFi networks in extracting encounters datasets from the usage logs. Simulation and real-world experimental results show that indirect encounter traces extracted directly from these logs strongly underestimate the opportunities for direct node-to- node message exchange in opportunistic networks.

Fishery statistics of the United States / prepared by Data Management and Statistics Division.

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Modeling usage of medical care services: the medical expenditure panel survey data, 1996-2000

We explore the determinants of usage of six different types of health care services, using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data, years 1996-2000. We apply a number of models for univariate count data, including semiparametric, semi-nonparametric and finite mixture models. We find that the complexity of the model that is required to fit the data well depends upon the way in which the data is pooled across sexes and over time, and upon the characteristics of the usage measure. Pooling across time and sexes is almost always favored, but when more heterogeneous data is pooled it is often the case that a more complex statistical model is required.

Une étude qualitative sur l'usage des cigarettes électroniques (e-cigarettes) chez les jeunes

La cigarette électronique (E-cigarette) est un phénomène relativement récent qui est en train de prendre une ampleur inattendue, surtout chez les jeunes. La littérature scientifique à ce sujet est encore relativement rare et surtout centrée sur les taux de prévalence. Bien que théoriquement conçues pour les adultes qui voudraient arrêter de fumer, les adolescents sont devenus un public cible pour ces produits, dont beaucoup n'ayant jamais fumé de cigarettes traditionnelles. Du point de vue de la santé publique, une des préoccupations majeures correspond au possible effet indésirable des cigarettes électroniques d'inciter les jeunes au tabagisme. Beaucoup de questions restent sans réponse quant à l'impact des cigarettes électroniques sur la santé publique. Par exemple, il n'est pas clair si les cigarettes électroniques sont juste une nouveauté que les jeunes n'essayent qu'une fois ou si elles ont le potentiel de concurrencer les cigarettes traditionnelles. Même si les cigarettes électroniques sont disponibles en Suisse depuis près de 10 ans, peu de données existent quant aux motifs de consommation des jeunes, les modalités de consommation, les effets recherchés et la perception de leur nocivité.

Scan statistics analysis of forest fire clusters

Spatio-temporal clusters in 1997?2003 fire sequences of Tuscany region (central Italy) have been identified and analysed by using the scan statistic, a method which was devised to evidence clusters in epidemiology. Results showed that the method is reliable to find clusters of events and to evaluate their significance via Monte Carlo replication. The evaluation of the presence of spatial and temporal patterns in fire occurrence and their significance could have a great impact in forthcoming studies on fire occurrences prediction.

The convenient calculation of some test statistics in models of discrete choice

The paper considers the use of artificial regression in calculating different types of score test when the log

Contribution à l'élaboration de mécanismes de détection, de contrôle et de lutte contre le blanchiment d'argent au regard de l'usage des technologies de l'information et de la communication "cas de l'Algérie"

Résumé : Désormais, la lutte contre le blanchiment d'argent constitue une priorité pour les Etats et les gouvernements dans le but, d'une part, de préserver l'économie et l'intégrité des places financières et, d'autre part, de priver les organisations criminelles des ressources financières. Dans ce contexte, la préoccupation majeure des autorités algériennes en charge de la lutte contre ce phénomène est de mettre en place un dispositif capable de détecter les mécanismes de blanchiment, d'en évaluer la menace et sur la base de cette connaissance, de définir et de déployer les moyens de riposte les plus efficaces et efficients. Mais nous constatons que mener des enquêtes de blanchiment en conséquence à un crime sous-jacent a montré ses limites en matière d'établissement de preuves, d'élucidation d'affaires et de recouvrement des avoirs. Par ailleurs, nous pensons qu'il serait plus judicieux de mettre en place en amont un contrôle «systématique» des flux financiers et des opérations inhabituelles et/ou suspectes et de là, identifier d'éventuelles opérations de blanchiment, sans forcément connaître le crime initial, en veillant au maintien de l'équilibre entre le «tout sécuritaire» orienté vers la surveillance accrue des flux et la préservation de la vie privée et des libertés individuelles. Notre thèse apporte un regard critique sur le dispositif actuel de lutte contre le blanchiment existant en Algérie que nous évaluons et sur lequel nous relevons plusieurs lacunes. Pour répondre aux problèmes identifiés nous proposons des solutions stratégiques, organisationnelles, méthodologiques et technologiques intégrées dans un cadre opérationnel cohérent au niveau national et international.