Effects of Landscape Segregation on Livelihood Vulnerability: Moving From Extensive Shifting Cultivation to Rotational Agriculture and Natural Forests in Northern Laos

This study investigates four decades of socio-economic and environmental change in a shifting cultivation landscape in the northern uplands of Laos. Historical changes in land cover and land use were analyzed using a chronological series of remote sensing data. Impacts of landscape change on local livelihoods were investigated in seven villages through interviews with various stakeholders. The study reveals that the complex mosaics of agriculture and forest patches observed in the study area have long constituted key assets for the resilience of local livelihood systems in the face of environmental and socio-economic risks. However, over the past 20 years, a process of segregating agricultural and forest spaces has increased the vulnerability of local land users. This process is a direct outcome of policies aimed at increasing national forest cover, eradicating shifting cultivation and fostering the emergence of more intensive and commercial agricultural practices. We argue that agriculture-forest segregation should be buffered in such a way that a diversity of livelihood opportunities and economic development pathways can be maintained.

The Dynamics of Secondary Forest Landscapes in the Lower Mekong Basin: A Regional-Scale Analysis

Secondary forests in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) are increasingly recognized as a valuable component of land cover, providing ecosystem services and benefits for local users. A large proportion of secondary forests in the LMB, especially in the uplands, are maintained by swidden cultivation. In order to assess the regional-scale status and dynamic trends of secondary forests in the LMB, an analysis of existing regional land cover data for 1993 and 1997 was carried out and forms the basis of this paper. To gain insight into the full range of dynamics affecting secondary forests beyond net-change rates, cross-tabulation matrix analyses were performed. The investigations revealed that secondary forests make up the largest share of forest cover in the LMB, with over 80% located in Laos and Cambodia. The deforestation rates for secondary forests are 3 times higher than the rates for other forest categories and account for two-thirds of the total deforestation. These dynamics are particularly pronounced in the less advanced countries of the LMB, especially in Laos, where national policies and the opening up of national economies seem to be the main drivers of further degradation and loss of secondary forests.

Pollen percentage thresholds of Abies alba based on 13-year annual records of pollen deposition in modified Tauber traps: perspectives of application to fossil situations

Abies alba (fir), a submontane tree from Central European mountains and uplands, is of special interest for palaeoecological and palaeoclimate interpretations due to its sensitivity to air and soil humidity. Its present distribution limit in the uplands of SE Poland is still a matter of debate. In the Holocene fir expanded to Poland very late, but early fir populations are supposed to occur in the Šumava Mts (Czech Republic). The study aims: to estimate pollen thresholds for fir presence/absence in Bohemia (Czech Republic) and Poland on the basis of modified Tauber pollen traps; to use these thresholds for tracing fir presence in two pollen diagrams from Poland (Słone and Bezedna lakes) in the border zone between the Roztocze region (with fir forest stands today) and Polesie (where fir has never played an important role); and to investigate how the percentage presence/absence threshold can be used to trace the occurrence and abundance of fir trees in the Šumava Mts based on the pollen diagrams of Rokytecká slat' and Mrtvý luh. The fir pollen thresholds estimated in terms of PAR (pollen accumulation rates or pollen influx) range from 843 (grains cm− 2 year− 1) (Roztocze) to 61 (Krkonoše) and 49 (Šumava). Percentage thresholds range from 0.3% in Krkonoše where fir trees are not present within 4 km to 22% in fir-dominated woodland of the Roztocze, providing evidence of strong underrepresentation of fir in the pollen deposition. Application of these percentage thresholds to the Słone and Bezedna pollen diagrams indicates that occurrence of fir in the region is possible from 3.5 cal ky BP onwards, though the evidence is not decisive. In the Šumava, a low representation of fir pollen (1–2%) reflecting presence of scattered fir trees was detected as early as ca. 7.0 cal ky BP.

Socio-Economic Perspectives on Shifting Cultivation Landscapes in Northern Laos

Despite the rapid agricultural transition that has occurred in the past decade, shifting cultivation remains a widespread agricultural practice in the northern uplands of Lao PDR. Little information is available on the basic socio-economic situation and respective possible patterns in shifting cultivation landscapes on a regional level. On the basis of a recent approximation of the extent of shifting cultivation landscapes for two time periods and disaggregated village level census data, this paper characterizes these landscapes in terms of key socioeconomic parameters for the whole of northern Laos. Results showed that over 550,000 people live in shifting cultivation regions. The poverty rate of this population of 46.5 % is considerably higher than the national rural rate. Most shifting cultivation landscapes are located in remote locations and a high share of the population comprises ethnic minorities, pointing to multi-dimensional marginality of these areas. We discuss whether economic growth and increased market accessibility are sufficient to lift these landscapes out of poverty.

Contractual Difficulties in Environmental Management and the Protection of Biodiversity: The Case of Conservation and Mitigation Banking

This paper offers a principal-agent model of feasible private contracting in mitigation and conservation banking aimed at the protection of natural habitat and bio-diversity of US wetlands and uplands. It is shown that while it is straightforward to design an incentive contract, such a contract may not achieve the federally mandated objective of no net loss of habitat. This is because the minimum payment required as an economic incentive to private agents may be greater than what they should receive for the habitat values that they actually created in the field. This possible problem is shown to derive from nonconvexity in the production possibility set between the biological value of land as natural habitat and in non-habitat uses such as in urban development. The paper concludes with a consideration of several institutional devises that may promote the convergence of private contracting and the attainment of no net loss. These include the payment of subsidies, greater accuracy in the identification of actual quality by the principal, and the use of several incentive alignment devises.

Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Vegetation cover and radiocarbon dates of palsa and peat plateaus in the Hudson Bay Lowlands

The Holocene development of a treed palsa bog and a peat plateau bog, located near the railroad to Churchill in the Hudson Bay Lowlands of northeastern Manitoba, was traced using peat macrofossil and radiocarbon analyses. Both sites first developed as wet rich fens through paludification of forested uplands around 6800 cal. yr BP. Results show a 20th-century age for the palsa formation and repeated periods of permafrost aggradation and collapse at the peat plateau site during the late Holocene. This timing of permafrost dynamics corroborates well with that inferred from previous studies on other permafrost peatlands in the same region. The developmental history of the palsa and peat plateau bogs is similar to that of adjacent permafrost-free fens, except for the specific frost heave and collapse features associated with permafrost dynamics. Permafrost aggradation and degradation is ascribed to regional climatic, local autogenic and other factors. Particularly the very recent palsa development can be assessed in terms of climatic changes as inferred from meteorological data and surface hydrological changes related to construction of the railroad. The results indicate that cold years with limited snowfall as well as altered drainage patterns associated with infrastructure development may have contributed to the recent palsa formation.

Database of Ice-Rich Yedoma Permafrost (IRYP)

Vast portions of Arctic and sub-Arctic Siberia, Alaska and the Yukon Territory are covered by ice-rich silty to sandy deposits that are containing large ice wedges, resulting from syngenetic sedimentation and freezing. Accompanied by wedge-ice growth in polygonal landscapes, the sedimentation process was driven by cold continental climatic and environmental conditions in unglaciated regions during the late Pleistocene, inducing the accumulation of the unique Yedoma deposits up to >50 meters thick. Because of fast incorporation of organic material into syngenetic permafrost during its formation, Yedoma deposits include well-preserved organic matter. Ice-rich deposits like Yedoma are especially prone to degradation triggered by climate changes or human activity. When Yedoma deposits degrade, large amounts of sequestered organic carbon as well as other nutrients are released and become part of active biogeochemical cycling. This could be of global significance for future climate warming as increased permafrost thaw is likely to lead to a positive feedback through enhanced greenhouse gas fluxes. Therefore, a detailed assessment of the current Yedoma deposit coverage and its volume is of importance to estimate its potential response to future climate changes. We synthesized the map of the coverage and thickness estimation, which will provide critical data needed for further research. In particular, this preliminary Yedoma map is a great step forward to understand the spatial heterogeneity of Yedoma deposits and its regional coverage. There will be further applications in the context of reconstructing paleo-environmental dynamics and past ecosystems like the mammoth-steppe-tundra, or ground ice distribution including future thermokarst vulnerability. Moreover, the map will be a crucial improvement of the data basis needed to refine the present-day Yedoma permafrost organic carbon inventory, which is assumed to be between 83±12 (Strauss et al., 2013, doi:10.1002/2013GL058088) and 129±30 (Walter Anthony et al., 2014, doi:10.1038/nature13560) gigatonnes (Gt) of organic carbon in perennially-frozen archives. Hence, here we synthesize data on the circum-Arctic and sub-Arctic distribution and thickness of Yedoma for compiling a preliminary circum-polar Yedoma map. For compiling this map, we used (1) maps of the previous Yedoma coverage estimates, (2) included the digitized areas from Grosse et al. (2013) as well as extracted areas of potential Yedoma distribution from additional surface geological and Quaternary geological maps (1.: 1:500,000: Q-51-V,G; P-51-A,B; P-52-A,B; Q-52-V,G; P-52-V,G; Q-51-A,B; R-51-V,G; R-52-V,G; R-52-A,B; 2.: 1:1,000,000: P-50-51; P-52-53; P-58-59; Q-42-43; Q-44-45; Q-50-51; Q-52-53; Q-54-55; Q-56-57; Q-58-59; Q-60-1; R-(40)-42; R-43-(45); R-(45)-47; R-48-(50); R-51; R-53-(55); R-(55)-57; R-58-(60); S-44-46; S-47-49; S-50-52; S-53-55; 3.: 1:2,500,000: Quaternary map of the territory of Russian Federation, 4.: Alaska Permafrost Map). The digitalization was done using GIS techniques (ArcGIS) and vectorization of raster Images (Adobe Photoshop and Illustrator). Data on Yedoma thickness are obtained from boreholes and exposures reported in the scientific literature. The map and database are still preliminary and will have to undergo a technical and scientific vetting and review process. In their current form, we included a range of attributes for Yedoma area polygons based on lithological and stratigraphical information from the original source maps as well as a confidence level for our classification of an area as Yedoma (3 stages: confirmed, likely, or uncertain). In its current version, our database includes more than 365 boreholes and exposures and more than 2000 digitized Yedoma areas. We expect that the database will continue to grow. In this preliminary stage, we estimate the Northern Hemisphere Yedoma deposit area to cover approximately 625,000 km². We estimate that 53% of the total Yedoma area today is located in the tundra zone, 47% in the taiga zone. Separated from west to east, 29% of the Yedoma area is found in North America and 71 % in North Asia. The latter include 9% in West Siberia, 11% in Central Siberia, 44% in East Siberia and 7% in Far East Russia. Adding the recent maximum Yedoma region (including all Yedoma uplands, thermokarst lakes and basins, and river valleys) of 1.4 million km² (Strauss et al., 2013, doi:10.1002/2013GL058088) and postulating that Yedoma occupied up to 80% of the adjacent formerly exposed and now flooded Beringia shelves (1.9 million km², down to 125 m below modern sea level, between 105°E - 128°W and >68°N), we assume that the Last Glacial Maximum Yedoma region likely covered more than 3 million km² of Beringia. Acknowledgements: This project is part of the Action Group "The Yedoma Region: A Synthesis of Circum-Arctic Distribution and Thickness" (funded by the International Permafrost Association (IPA) to J. Strauss) and is embedded into the Permafrost Carbon Network (working group Yedoma Carbon Stocks). We acknowledge the support by the European Research Council (Starting Grant #338335), the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Grant 01DM12011 and "CarboPerm" (03G0836A)), the Initiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz Association (#ERC-0013) and the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA, project UFOPLAN FKZ 3712 41 106).