Impact of suborbital climate changes in the North Atlantic on ice sheet dynamics at the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

[1] Early and Mid-Pleistocene climate, ocean hydrography and ice sheet dynamics have been reconstructed using a high-resolution data set (planktonic and benthicδ18O time series, faunal-based sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions and ice-rafted debris (IRD)) record from a high-deposition-rate sedimentary succession recovered at the Gardar Drift formation in the subpolar North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Leg 306, Site U1314). Our sedimentary record spans from late in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 31 to MIS 19 (1069–779 ka). Different trends of the benthic and planktonic oxygen isotopes, SST and IRD records before and after MIS 25 (∼940 ka) evidence the large increase in Northern Hemisphere ice-volume, linked to the cyclicity change from the 41-kyr to the 100-kyr that occurred during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Beside longer glacial-interglacial (G-IG) variability, millennial-scale fluctuations were a pervasive feature across our study. Negative excursions in the benthicδ18O time series observed at the times of IRD events may be related to glacio-eustatic changes due to ice sheets retreats and/or to changes in deep hydrography. Time series analysis on surface water proxies (IRD, SST and planktonicδ18O) of the interval between MIS 31 to MIS 26 shows that the timing of these millennial-scale climate changes are related to half-precessional (10 kyr) components of the insolation forcing, which are interpreted as cross-equatorial heat transport toward high latitudes during both equinox insolation maxima at the equator.

Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum

The response of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics to volcanic eruptions and to a decrease in solar activity during the Dalton Minimum is investigated with the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry general circulation model SOCOL-MPIOM (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) covering the time period 1780 to 1840 AD. We carried out several sensitivity ensemble experiments to separate the effects of (i) reduced solar ultra-violet (UV) irradiance, (ii) reduced solar visible and near infrared irradiance, (iii) enhanced galactic cosmic ray intensity as well as less intensive solar energetic proton events and auroral electron precipitation, and (iv) volcanic aerosols. The introduced changes of UV irradiance and volcanic aerosols significantly influence stratospheric dynamics in the early 19th century, whereas changes in the visible part of the spectrum and energetic particles have smaller effects. A reduction of UV irradiance by 15%, which represents the presently discussed highest estimate of UV irradiance change caused by solar activity changes, causes global ozone decrease below the stratopause reaching as much as 8% in the midlatitudes at 5 hPa and a significant stratospheric cooling of up to 2 °C in the mid-stratosphere and to 6 °C in the lower mesosphere. Changes in energetic particle precipitation lead only to minor changes in the yearly averaged temperature fields in the stratosphere. Volcanic aerosols heat the tropical lower stratosphere, allowing more water vapour to enter the tropical stratosphere, which, via HOx reactions, decreases upper stratospheric and mesospheric ozone by roughly 4%. Conversely, heterogeneous chemistry on aerosols reduces stratospheric NOx, leading to a 12% ozone increase in the tropics, whereas a decrease in ozone of up to 5% is found over Antarctica in boreal winter. The linear superposition of the different contributions is not equivalent to the response obtained in a simulation when all forcing factors are applied during the Dalton Minimum (DM) – this effect is especially well visible for NOx/NOy. Thus, this study also shows the non-linear behaviour of the coupled chemistry-climate system. Finally, we conclude that especially UV and volcanic eruptions dominate the changes in the ozone, temperature and dynamics while the NOx field is dominated by the energetic particle precipitation. Visible radiation changes have only very minor effects on both stratospheric dynamics and chemistry.

The Global Plankton Database: an inventory and data from the Former Soviet Union expeditions

At present time, there is a lack of knowledge on the interannual climate-related variability of zooplankton communities of the tropical Atlantic, central Mediterranean Sea, Caspian Sea, and Aral Sea, due to the absence of appropriate databases. In the mid latitudes, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric fluctuations over eastern North America, the northern Atlantic Ocean and Europe. Therefore, one of the issues that need to be addressed through data synthesis is the evaluation of interannual patterns in species abundance and species diversity over these regions in regard to the NAO. The database has been used to investigate the ecological role of the NAO in interannual variations of mesozooplankton abundance and biomass along the zonal array of the NAO influence. Basic approach to the proposed research involved: (1) development of co-operation between experts and data holders in Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, UK, and USA to rescue and compile the oceanographic data sets and release them on CD-ROM, (2) organization and compilation of a database based on FSU cruises to the above regions, (3) analysis of the basin-scale interannual variability of the zooplankton species abundance, biomass, and species diversity.

Dynamics in the governance of collective irrigation systems: Evidence from field experiments in Nicaragua.

In this paper, we investigate the real demand for climate protection when the purely individual perspective of existing revealed preference studies is relaxed. This is achieved in two treatments; first, we determine the information subjects receive about the demand revealed by other subjects in a similar decision making situation, second, collective action is implemented whereby all subjects are required to purchase the group?s median quantity at a given price. Participants in the experiment were offered the opportunity to contribute to climate protection by purchasing European Union Allowances. Allowances purchased were withdrawn from the European Emissions Trading Scheme. In our experiment, information about other subjects? behaviour has no treatment effect on the demand for climate protection. Under collective action however, the probability of purchasing allowances is higher compared to the reference treatment situation, an individual contribution mechanism. Furthermore, we observe a strong correlation between subjects? demand and their expectations about other participants? behaviour. When collective action is not available, subjects? e xpectations are consistent with free rider behaviour.

Trade and geopolitics: should the EU engage with the Eurasian Economic Union? EPC Policy Brief, 2 April 2015

In an effort to find a solution to the deteriorating relationship between the EU and Russia, various commentators, policy-makers and experts have suggested that the EU should seriously consider engaging with the Eurasian Economic Union, as part of a new ‘grand bargain’ between Russia and the EU. If Ukraine will no longer be forced to choose between two integrating regimes, so the argument goes, Russian sensibilities can be pacified, which will in turn, hopefully, lead to peace in eastern Ukraine. However, according to Rilka Dragneva and Kataryna Wolczuk, these arguments are based on a number of problematic assumptions about integration dynamics in the eastern neighbourhood. In this Policy Brief, they recommend the EU better think twice before further engaging with the EEU.

Consensus, contradiction, and conciliation of interests: the geo-economics of the Energy Union. EPC Policy Brief, 8 July 2015

European Union energy policy calls for nothing less than a profound transformation of the EU's energy system: by 2050 decarbonised electricity generation with 80-95% fewer greenhouse gas emissions, increased use of renewables, more energy efficiency, a functioning energy market and increased security of supply are to be achieved. Different EU policies (e.g., EU climate and energy package for 2020) are intended to create the political and regulatory framework for this transformation. The sectorial dynamics resulting from these EU policies already affect the systems of electricity generation, transportation and storage in Europe, and the more effective the implementation of new measures the more the structure of Europe's power system will change in the years to come. Recent initiatives such as the 2030 climate/energy package and the Energy Union are supposed to keep this dynamic up. Setting new EU targets, however, is not necessarily the same as meeting them. The impact of EU energy policy is likely to have considerable geo-economic implications for individual member states: with increasing market integration come new competitors; coal and gas power plants face new renewable challengers domestically and abroad; and diversification towards new suppliers will result in new trade routes, entry points and infrastructure. Where these implications are at odds with powerful national interests, any member state may point to Article 194, 2 of the Lisbon Treaty and argue that the EU's energy policy agenda interferes with its given right to determine the conditions for exploiting its energy resources, the choice between different energy sources and the general structure of its energy supply. The implementation of new policy initiatives therefore involves intense negotiations to conciliate contradicting interests, something that traditionally has been far from easy to achieve. In areas where this process runs into difficulties, the transfer of sovereignty to the European level is usually to be found amongst the suggested solutions. Pooling sovereignty on a new level, however, does not automatically result in a consensus, i.e., conciliate contradicting interests. Rather than focussing on the right level of decision making, European policy makers need to face the (inconvenient truth of) geo-economical frictions within the Union that make it difficult to come to an arrangement. The reminder of this text explains these latter, more structural and sector-related challenges for European energy policy in more detail, and develops some concrete steps towards a political and regulatory framework necessary to overcome them.

Organic Matter Dynamics in the Wet Tropics Under Different Sugarcane Residue Management Regimes

Retention of sugarcane leaves and tops on the soil surface after harvesting has almost completely replaced pre- and post-harvest burning of crop residues in the Australian sugar industry. Since its introduction around 25 years ago, residue retention has increased soil organic matter to improve soil fertility as well as improve harvest flexibility and reduce erosion. However, in the wet tropics residue retention also poses potential problems of prolonged waterlogging, and late-season release of nitrogen which can reduce sugar content of the crop. The objective of this project is to examine the management of sugarcane residues in the wet tropics using a systems approach. Subsidiary objectives are (a) to improve understanding of nitrogen cycling in Australian sugarcane soils in the wet tropics, and (b) to identify ways to manage crop residues to retain their advantages and limit their disadvantages. Project objectives will be addressed using several approaches. Historic farm production data recorded by sugar mills in the wet tropics will be analysed to determine the effect of residue burning or retention on crop yield and sugar content. The impact of climate on soil processes will be highlighed by development of an index of nitrogen mineralisation using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. Increased understanding of nitrogen cycling in Australian sugarcane soils and management of crop residues will be gained through a field experiment recently established in the Australian wet tropics. From this experiment the decomposition and nitrogen dynamics of residues placed on the soil surface and incorporated will be compared. The effect of differences in temperature, soil water content and pH will be further examined on these soils under glasshouse conditions. Preliminary results show a high ammonium to nitrate ratio in tropics soils, which may be due to low rates of nitrification that increase the retention of nitrogen in a form (ammonium) that is less subject to leaching. Further results will be presented at Congress.