Preliminary studies for the establishment of a tsunami early detection algorithm to be used in the frame of a Tsunami Warning System

This thesis presents and discusses TEDA, an algorithm for the automatic detection in real-time of tsunamis and large amplitude waves on sea level records. TEDA has been developed in the frame of the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna for coastal tide gauges and it has been calibrated and tested for the tide gauge station of Adak Island, in Alaska. A preliminary study to apply TEDA to offshore buoys in the Pacific Ocean is also presented.

Holocene tsunami events in the Eastern Ionian Sea - Geoscientific evidence from Cefalonia and the western Peloponnese (Greece)

This study presents geo-scientific evidence for Holocene tsunami impact along the shores of the Eastern Ionian Sea. Cefalonia Island, the Gulf of Kyparissia and the Gialova Lagoon were subject of detailed geo-scientific investigations. It is well known that the coasts of the eastern Mediterranean were hit by the destructive influence of tsunamis in the past. The seismically highly active Hellenic Trench is considered as the most significant tsunami source in the Eastern Ionian Sea. This study focuses on the reconstruction and detection of sedimentary signatures of palaeotsunami events and their influence on the Holocene palaeogeographical evolution. The results of fine grained near coast geo-archives are discussed and interpreted in detail to differentiate between tsunami, storm and sea level highstands as sedimentation processes.rnA multi-method approach was applied using geomorphological, sedimentological, geochemical, geophysical and microfaunal analyses to detect Holocene tsunamigenic impact. Chronological data were based on radiocarbondatings and archaeological age estimations to reconstruct local geo-chronostratigraphies and to correlate them on supra-regional scales.rnDistinct sedimentary signatures of 5 generations of tsunami impact were found along the coasts of Cefalonia in the Livadi coastal plain. The results show that the overall coastal evolution was influenced by tsunamigenic impact that occured around 5700 cal BC (I), 4250 cal BC (II), at the beginning of the 2nd millennium cal BC (III), in the 1st millennium cal BC (IV) and posterior to 780 cal AD (V). Sea level reconstructions and the palaeogeographical evolution show that the local Holocene sea level has never been higher than at present.rnAt the former Mouria Lagoon along the Gulf of Kyparissia almost four allochtonous layers of tsunamigenic origin were identified. The stratigraphical record and palaeogeographical reconstructions show that major environmental coastal changes were linked to these extreme events. At the southern end of the Agoulenitsa Lagoon at modern Kato Samikon high-energy traces were found more than 2 km inland and upt ot 9 m above present sea level. The geo-chronological framework deciphered tsunami landfall for the 5th millennium cal BC (I), mid to late 2nd mill. BC (II), Roman times (1st cent. BC to early 4th cent. AD) (III) and most possible one of the historically well-known 365 AD or 521/551 AD tsunamis (IV).rnCoarse-grained allochthonous sediments of marine origin were found intersecting muddy deposits of the quisecent sediments of the Gialova Lagoon on the southwestern Peloponnese. Radiocarbondatings suggest 6 generations of major tsunami impact. Tsunami generations were dated to around 3300 cal BC (I), around the end of 4th and the beginning of 3rd millennium BC (II), after around 1100 cal BC (III), after the 4th to 2nd cent. BC (IV), between the 8th and early 15th cent. AD (V) and between the mid 14th to beginning of 15th cent. AD (VI). Palaeogeographical and morphological characteristics in the environs of the Gialova Lagoon were controlled by high-energy influence.rnSedimentary findings in all study areas are in good accordance to traces of tsunami events found all over the Ionian Sea. The correlation of geo-chronological data fits very well to coastal Akarnania, the western Peloponnese and finding along the coasts of southern Italy and the Aegean. Supra-regional influence of tsunamigenic impact significant for the investigated sites. The palaeogeographical evolution and palaeo-geomorphological setting of the each study area was strongly affected by tsunamigenic impact.rnThe selected geo-archives represent extraordinary sediment traps for the reconstruction of Holocene coastal evolution. Our result therefore give new insight to the exceptional high tsunami risk in the eastern Mediterranean and emphasize the underestimation of the overall tsunami hazard.

Analisi della vulnerabilità sociale e danno da tsunami per la città di Siracusa

Siracusa, importante città della Sicilia sud orientale, si affaccia sul Mar Ionio ed è situata in una zona altamente esposta al pericolo di tsunami, di tipo locale e non: fra i numerosi eventi che hanno colpito quest’area si ricordano i maremoti dell’11 gennaio 1693 e del 28 dicembre 1908. L’obiettivo di questa Tesi è studiare la vulnerabilità sociale, esposizione e rischio legati a un’eventuale inondazione di Siracusa dovuta a tsunami. Il presente lavoro è strutturato come segue. Innanzitutto, si fornisce una descrizione della regione interessata illustrandone gli aspetti geografici e geologici e tracciando una breve sintesi della sequenza degli tsunami che l’hanno colpita. Successivamente si prende in esame la vulnerabilità, in particolare la vulnerabilità sociale, facendo un breve excursus dei concetti e delle metodologie di analisi. Nella Tesi lo studio della vulnerabilità sociale sarà diviso in tre fasi che si differenziano sia per l’approccio utilizzato che per le dimensioni dell’area in esame. Nella prima fase viene studiata tutta la costa orientale della Sicilia con l’obiettivo di calcolare la vulnerabilità sociale su base comunale. Per ogni comune della costa verrà calcolato un indice di vulnerabilità noto nella letteratura specialistica come SoVI (Social Vulnerability Index). Nella seconda fase ci si concentra sul comune di Siracusa e si stima il numero di persone potenzialmente colpite da tsunami sulla base di dati statistici disponibili a livello municipale. La terza fase consiste in un’analisi ancora più dettagliata che studia puntualmente le strutture che si trovano nella zona inondata e quantifica il danno sia per le persone che per le costruzioni considerando per queste ultime anche il loro valore economico.

Mass Movement-Induced Tsunami Hazard on Perialpine Lake Lucerne (Switzerland): Scenarios and Numerical Experiments

Previous studies of the sediments of Lake Lucerne have shown that massive subaqueous mass movements affecting unconsolidated sediments on lateral slopes are a common process in this lake, and, in view of historical reports describing damaging waves on the lake, it was suggested that tsunamis generated by mass movements represent a considerable natural hazard on the lakeshores. Newly performed numerical simulations combining two-dimensional, depth-averaged models for mass-movement propagation and for tsunami generation, propagation and inunda- tion reproduce a number of reported tsunami effects. Four analysed mass-movement scenarios—three based on documented slope failures involving volumes of 5.5 to 20.8 9 106 m3—show peak wave heights of several metres and maximum runup of 6 to [10 m in the directly affected basins, while effects in neighbouring basins are less drastic. The tsunamis cause large-scale inundation over distances of several hundred metres on flat alluvial plains close to the mass-movement source areas. Basins at the ends of the lake experience regular water-level oscillations with characteristic periods of several minutes. The vulnerability of potentially affected areas has increased dramatically since the times of the damaging historical events, recommending a thorough evaluation of the hazard.

Reconstructing 4000 years of mass movement and tsunami history in a deep peri-Alpine lake (Lake Geneva, France-Switzerland)

The study of mass movements in lake sediments provides insights into past natural hazards at historic and prehistoric timescales. Sediments from the deep basin of Lake Geneva reveal a succession of six large-scale (volumes of 22 × 106 to 250 × 106 m3) mass-transport deposits, associated with five mass-movement events within 2600 years (4000 cal bp to 563 ad). The mass-transport deposits result from: (i) lateral slope failures (mass-transport deposit B at 3895 ± 225 cal bp and mass-transport deposits A and C at 3683 ± 128 cal bp); and (ii) Rhône delta collapses (mass-transport deposits D to G dated at 2650 ± 150 cal bp, 2185 ± 85 cal bp, 1920 ± 120 cal bp and 563 ad, respectively). Mass-transport deposits A and C were most probably triggered by an earthquake, whereas the Rhône delta collapses were likely to be due to sediment overload with a rockfall as the external trigger (mass-transport deposit G, the Tauredunum event in 563 ad known from historical records), an earthquake (mass-transport deposit E) or unknown external triggers (mass-transport deposits D and F). Independent of their origin and trigger mechanisms, numerical simulations show that all of these recorded mass-transport deposits are large enough to have generated at least metre-scale tsunamis during mass movement initiation. Since the Tauredunum event in 563 ad, two small-scale (volumes of 1 to 2 × 106 m3) mass-transport deposits (H and I) are present in the seismic record, both of which are associated with small lateral slope failures. Mass-transport deposits H and I might be related to earthquakes in Lausanne/Geneva (possibly) 1322 ad and Aigle 1584 ad, respectively. The sedimentary record of the deep basin of Lake Geneva, in combination with the historical record, show that during the past 3695 years, at least six tsunamis were generated by mass movements, indicating that the tsunami hazard in the Lake Geneva region should not be neglected, although such events are not frequent with a recurrence time of 0·0016 yr−1.