Rapid drop in the reproduction number during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experienced a confined rural outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) with 69 reported cases from July to October 2014. Understanding the transmission dynamics during the outbreak can provide important information for anticipating and controlling future EVD epidemics. I fitted an EVD transmission model to previously published data of this outbreak and estimated the basic reproduction number R 0 = 5.2 (95% CI [4.0-6.7]). The model suggests that the net reproduction number Rt fell below unity 28 days (95% CI [25-34] days) after the onset of symptoms in the index case. This study adds to previous epidemiological descriptions of the 2014 EVD outbreak in DRC, and is consistent with the notion that a rapid implementation of control interventions helped reduce further spread.

Gender differences in tuberculosis notification in Pakistan

Worldwide the male:female ratio of new smear-positive TB cases is estimated to be roughly 2:1. However in Pakistan this is not the case. Rates of notified TB cases are 20–30% higher in young females compared with males and female rates remain high regardless of increasing age. This is in stark contrast to neighboring India which is characterized by a huge excess of male TB cases. It is currently unknown why rates of notified TB are so high in females in Pakistan, but it is clear this epidemiology is a public health issue of great importance that impacts transmission dynamics and disease control initiatives.^

Mass vaccination to control chickenpox: the influence of zoster.

The impact of transmission events from patients with shingles (zoster) on the epidemiology of varicella is examined before and after the introduction of mass immunization by using a stochastic mathematical model of transmission dynamics. Reactivation of the virus is shown to damp stochastic fluctuations and move the dynamics toward simple annual oscillations. The force of infection due to zoster cases is estimated by comparison of simulated and observed incidence time series. The presence of infectious zoster cases reduces the tendency for mass immunization to increase varicella incidence at older ages when disease severity is typically greater.

Distribuição da fauna triatomínica e infecção natural pelo Trypanosoma cruzi em diferentes municípios do semiárido do Rio Grande do Norte

The triatomine fauna distribution and the natural infection by Trypanosoma cruzi was evaluated aiming the comprehension of the transmission dynamics of this parasite in the countryside of the State of Rio Grande do Norte. Additionally, the research for Trypanosoma rangeli was also investigated. The captures of triatomines were performed at sylvatic, peridomicile and domicile environments at different municipalities of the central and western mesoregions of this state. The insects were identified and examined by direct method, xenoculture and PCR to detect T. cruzi. The detection of T. rangeli was performed by direct examination of the hemolymph and multiplex PCR of 151 positive specimens for T. cruzi. Of 824 captured insects, the species were distributed in Triatoma brasiliensis (66.4%), Triatoma pseudomaculata (18.2%), Panstrongylus lutzi (12.7%) and Rhodnius nasutus (2.7%), and T. brasiliensis was found in most of the evaluated municipalities. The species were captured at nymph and adult stages, except P. lutzi, exclusively in adult stage. In the sylvatic environment were captured T. brasiliensis (57%), P. lutzi (28%) and T. pseudomaculata (15%) species. At the peridomicile environment were identified T. brasiliensis (74%), T. pseudomaculata (21%) and R. nasutus (5.0%), while in the intradomicile was found only T. brasiliensis. The infection rate of triatomines by T. cruzi was 30.4%, P. lutzi showed highest rate (78%), followed by T. brasiliensis (24.4%), T. pseudomaculata (22.6%) and R. nasutus (4.5%). Infected triatomines indexes at silvatic, peridomicile and domicile environments were of 41.8%, 20.1% and 50.0%, respectively. T. rangeli was only detected by multiplex PCR in 2.6% (4/151) of examined insects, of these 4.4% (3/67) were T. brasiliensis and 1.5% (1/63) P. lutzi species. The data showed that the positivity of P. lutzi allied to its ability to invade domicile attracted by light, suggests a likely participation of this insect between epidemiological transmission cycles of T. cruzi. T. brasiliensis was the only specie present in all environments, what reinforces its importance related to the capacity for adapting to the domestic environment, potential as a vector, and maintenance of sylvatic and domestic transmissions cycles in the semiarid, indicating the necessity of continuous epidemiological surveillance. The presence of T. rangeli in T. brasiliensis and P. lutzi was first recorded in rural zone of this State, broadening the area of occurrence of this protozoan in northeastern Brazil.

Distribuição da fauna triatomínica e infecção natural pelo Trypanosoma cruzi em diferentes municípios do semiárido do Rio Grande do Norte

The triatomine fauna distribution and the natural infection by Trypanosoma cruzi was evaluated aiming the comprehension of the transmission dynamics of this parasite in the countryside of the State of Rio Grande do Norte. Additionally, the research for Trypanosoma rangeli was also investigated. The captures of triatomines were performed at sylvatic, peridomicile and domicile environments at different municipalities of the central and western mesoregions of this state. The insects were identified and examined by direct method, xenoculture and PCR to detect T. cruzi. The detection of T. rangeli was performed by direct examination of the hemolymph and multiplex PCR of 151 positive specimens for T. cruzi. Of 824 captured insects, the species were distributed in Triatoma brasiliensis (66.4%), Triatoma pseudomaculata (18.2%), Panstrongylus lutzi (12.7%) and Rhodnius nasutus (2.7%), and T. brasiliensis was found in most of the evaluated municipalities. The species were captured at nymph and adult stages, except P. lutzi, exclusively in adult stage. In the sylvatic environment were captured T. brasiliensis (57%), P. lutzi (28%) and T. pseudomaculata (15%) species. At the peridomicile environment were identified T. brasiliensis (74%), T. pseudomaculata (21%) and R. nasutus (5.0%), while in the intradomicile was found only T. brasiliensis. The infection rate of triatomines by T. cruzi was 30.4%, P. lutzi showed highest rate (78%), followed by T. brasiliensis (24.4%), T. pseudomaculata (22.6%) and R. nasutus (4.5%). Infected triatomines indexes at silvatic, peridomicile and domicile environments were of 41.8%, 20.1% and 50.0%, respectively. T. rangeli was only detected by multiplex PCR in 2.6% (4/151) of examined insects, of these 4.4% (3/67) were T. brasiliensis and 1.5% (1/63) P. lutzi species. The data showed that the positivity of P. lutzi allied to its ability to invade domicile attracted by light, suggests a likely participation of this insect between epidemiological transmission cycles of T. cruzi. T. brasiliensis was the only specie present in all environments, what reinforces its importance related to the capacity for adapting to the domestic environment, potential as a vector, and maintenance of sylvatic and domestic transmissions cycles in the semiarid, indicating the necessity of continuous epidemiological surveillance. The presence of T. rangeli in T. brasiliensis and P. lutzi was first recorded in rural zone of this State, broadening the area of occurrence of this protozoan in northeastern Brazil.

Parameter Identification in a Tuberculosis Model for Cameroon

A deterministic model of tuberculosis in Cameroon is designed and analyzed with respect to its transmission dynamics. The model includes lack of access to treatment and weak diagnosis capacity as well as both frequency-and density-dependent transmissions. It is shown that the model is mathematically well-posed and epidemiologically reasonable. Solutions are non-negative and bounded whenever the initial values are non-negative. A sensitivity analysis of model parameters is performed and the most sensitive ones are identified by means of a state-of-the-art Gauss-Newton method. In particular, parameters representing the proportion of individuals having access to medical facilities are seen to have a large impact on the dynamics of the disease. The model predicts that a gradual increase of these parameters could significantly reduce the disease burden on the population within the next 15 years.

Ecological drivers of a vector borne pathogen: distribution and abundance of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato and its vector Ixodes ricinus in Scotland

Vector-borne disease emergence in recent decades has been associated with different environmental drivers including changes in habitat, hosts and climate. Lyme borreliosis is among the most important vector-borne diseases in the Northern hemisphere and is an emerging disease in Scotland. Transmitted by Ixodid tick vectors between large numbers of wild vertebrate host species, Lyme borreliosis is caused by bacteria from the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato species group. Ecological studies can inform how environmental factors such as host abundance and community composition, habitat and landscape heterogeneity contribute to spatial and temporal variation in risk from B. burgdorferi s.l. In this thesis a range of approaches were used to investigate the effects of vertebrate host communities and individual host species as drivers of B. burgdorferi s.l. dynamics and its tick vector Ixodes ricinus. Host species differ in reservoir competence for B. burgdorferi s.l. and as hosts for ticks. Deer are incompetent transmission hosts for B. burgdorferi s.l. but are significant hosts of all life-stages of I. ricinus. Rodents and birds are important transmission hosts of B. burgdorferi s.l. and common hosts of immature life-stages of I. ricinus. In this thesis, surveys of woodland sites revealed variable effects of deer density on B. burgdorferi prevalence, from no effect (Chapter 2) to a possible ‘dilution’ effect resulting in lower prevalence at higher deer densities (Chapter 3). An invasive species in Scotland, the grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis), was found to host diverse genotypes of B. burgdorferi s.l. and may act as a spill-over host for strains maintained by native host species (Chapter 4). Habitat fragmentation may alter the dynamics of B. burgdorferi s.l. via effects on the host community and host movements. In this thesis, there was lack of persistence of the rodent associated genospecies of B. burgdorferi s.l. within a naturally fragmented landscape (Chapter 3). Rodent host biology, particularly population cycles and dispersal ability are likely to affect pathogen persistence and recolonization in fragmented habitats. Heterogeneity in disease dynamics can occur spatially and temporally due to differences in the host community, habitat and climatic factors. Higher numbers of I. ricinus nymphs, and a higher probability of detecting a nymph infected with B. burgdorferi s.l., were found in areas with warmer climates estimated by growing degree days (Chapter 2). The ground vegetation type associated with the highest number of I. ricinus nymphs varied between studies in this thesis (Chapter 2 & 3) and does not appear to be a reliable predictor across large areas. B. burgdorferi s.l. prevalence and genospecies composition was highly variable for the same sites sampled in subsequent years (Chapter 2). This suggests that dynamic variables such as reservoir host densities and deer should be measured as well as more static habitat and climatic factors to understand the drivers of B. burgdorferi s.l. infection in ticks. Heterogeneity in parasite loads amongst hosts is a common finding which has implications for disease ecology and management. Using a 17-year data set for tick infestations in a wild bird community in Scotland, different effects of age and sex on tick burdens were found among four species of passerine bird (Chapter 5). There were also different rates of decline in tick burdens among bird species in response to a long term decrease in questing tick pressure over the study. Species specific patterns may be driven by differences in behaviour and immunity and highlight the importance of comparative approaches. Combining whole genome sequencing (WGS) and population genetics approaches offers a novel approach to identify ecological drivers of pathogen populations. An initial analysis of WGS from B. burgdorferi s.s. isolates sampled 16 years apart suggests that there is a signal of measurable evolution (Chapter 6). This suggests demographic analyses may be applied to understand ecological and evolutionary processes of these bacteria. This work shows how host communities, habitat and climatic factors can affect the local transmission dynamics of B. burgdorferi s.l. and the potential risk of infection to humans. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in pathogen dynamics poses challenges for the prediction of risk. New tools such as WGS of the pathogen (Chapter 6) and blood meal analysis techniques will add power to future studies on the ecology and evolution of B. burgdorferi s.l.

Rare HIV-1 subtype J genomes and a new H/U/CRF02_AG recombinant genome suggests an ancient origin of HIV-1 in Angola

This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in AIDS Research and Human Retroviruses .

Epidemiological studies on toxoplasma gondii infection in a one health perspective

The objective of the present Ph.D. thesis was to investigate with a One Health approach the epidemiological patterns of T. gondii infection in Italy, to better understand the transmission dynamics of the parasite, following different research lines. The results of a retrospective analysis in animals and human showed the widespread distribution of T. gondii in the study area, with specific antibodies found in various animal species and human populations, indicating its constant presence across diverse environments. The environment plays a significant role in T. gondii's epidemiology. Migratory aquatic birds, rodents, wolves, and wild boars were investigated as sentinels of their spread, highlighting the potential transmission across geographic areas and infection risks for wildlife in natural settings. The study also provided insights into seroprevalence in wolves. Dogs, subjected to serological investigations exhibited risk factors for T. gondii infection, such as cohabitation with cats, coprophagy behaviours, and continuous outdoor. Correlation between serological evidence of exposure to T. gondii and pathological anxiety in large-size dogs was observed, and the consumption of raw meat was associated with a higher risk of infection in these animals. Results of the investigations conducted in this thesis, demonstrate the dynamic nature of T. gondii infection in cattle, characterized by new infections and declining antibody levels over the production cycle. The study also describes a co-infection between T. gondii and Sarcocystis hominis in bovine eosinophilic myositis. In the final part of the Thesis, a comprehensive genotyping of T. gondii in Italy reveals the predominance of Type II strains, particularly in cases of ovine abortion and fatal toxoplasmosis among captive Lemur catta. This approach enhances our understanding of the parasite's genetic diversity and transmission patterns, vital for effective management of its impact on human and animal health in Italy.

Dynamics of transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in a rural area of Argentina: III. Persistence of T. cruzi parasitemia among canine reservoirs in a two-year follow-up

A new cross-sectional survey of household- associated mongrel dogs as well as follow-up of previously parasitemic individuals was carried out in 1984 toy means of xenodiagnosis and serologic techniques to get a deeper insight into the relationship of T. cruzi parasitemia and age among canine hosts in a rural area of Argentina. Persistence of detectable parasitemia was age-independent, or at most, loosely related to age, confirming the pattern observed in 1982. Similarly no significant age-decreasing effect was recorded among seropositive dogs in: a) the probability of detecting parasites in a 2-year follow-up; b) their intensity of infectiousness (=infective force) for T. infestans 3rd-4th instar nymphs, as measured by the percentage of infected bugs observed in each dog xenodiagnosis. Moreover, not only was the infective force of seropositive dogs for bugs approximately constant through lifetime, but it was significantly higher than the one recorded for children in the present survey, and for human people by other researchers. Therefore, and since T. infestans field populations show high feeding frequencies on dogs, the latter are expected to make the greatest contribution to the pool of infected vectors in the rural household of Argentina. This characteristic should be sufficient to involve canine reservoirs definitely as a risk factor for human people residing in the same house. The increased severity of parasitemia observed among dogs in this survey may be related to the acute undernutrition characteristic of canine populations of poor rural areas in our country, which is expected to affect the ability of the host to manage the infection.

DETECTION OF IgM ANTIBODIES TO Schistosoma mansoni GUT-ASSOCIATED ANTIGENS FOR THE STUDY OF THE DYNAMICS OF SCHISTOSOMIASIS TRANSMISSION IN AN ENDEMIC AREA WITH LOW WORM BURDEN

For a period of 2 years, five follow-up measures of prevalence and incidence rates were estimated in a prospective study of S. mansoni infection in a group of schoolchildren who were living in a rural area of the Municipality of Itariri (São Paulo, Brazil), where schistosomiasis is transmitted by Biomphalaria tenagophila. Infection was determined by the examination of three Kato-Katz stool slides, and the parasitological findings were analyzed in comparison to serological data. In the five surveys, carried out at 6-month intervals (March-April and September-October), the prevalences were, respectively, 8.6, 6.8, 9.9, 5.8 and 17.2% by the Kato-Katz, and 56.5, 52.6, 60.8, 53.5 and 70.1% by the immunofluorescence test (IFT). Geometric mean egg counts were low: 57.8, 33.0, 35.6, 47.3 and 40.9 eggs per gram of feces, respectively. Of the total of 299 schoolchildren, who submitted five blood samples at 6-month intervals, one for each survey, 40% were IFT-positive throughout the study, and 22% were IFT-negative in all five surveys. Seroconversion from IFT negative to positive, indicating newly acquired S. mansoni infection, was observed more frequently in surveys carried out during March-April (after Summer holidays), than during September-October. Seasonal trends were not statistically significant for detection of S. mansoni eggs in stool. The results indicate that the use of IgM-IFT is superior to parasitological methods for detection of incidence of S. mansoni infection in areas with low worm burden.

Dynamics of feeding and defecation in Triatoma vitticeps (Stal, 1859) (Hemiptera, Reduviidae, Triatominae) and its potential in the transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi

Adults of Triatoma vitticeps infected by flagellates similar to Trypanosoma cruzi are frequently captured by the inhabitants of rural areas in the Brazilian state of Espírito Santo. The dynamics of feeding and defecation were observed in three groups of adult triatomines, consisting of sylvatic T. vitticeps and laboratory-reared specimens of this species and T. infestans. Triatomines were observed from the moment they were presented with an immobilized chicken as a bloodmeal source until 240 min after feeding had ended. Mean times between the end of feeding and defecation for T. infestans, wild T. vitticeps and laboratory-reared specimens of the latter species were 1.2, 21.1, and 64 min respectively. All T. infestans defecated within 10 min of feeding, while only 29.9 of wild and 52.8% laboratory-reared specimens of T. vitticeps did so within this period. These results may explain the low efficiency of T. vitticeps in T. cruzi transmission to man. The shorter time between feeding and defecation in laboratory-reared T. vitticeps may indicate a change in behaviour of this species as a result of adaptation to an artificial environment.

Cumulative cultural dynamics and the coevolution of cultural innovation and transmission: an ESS model for panmictic and structured populations.

When individuals in a population can acquire traits through learning, each individual may express a certain number of distinct cultural traits. These traits may have been either invented by the individual himself or acquired from others in the population. Here, we develop a game theoretic model for the accumulation of cultural traits through individual and social learning. We explore how the rates of innovation, decay, and transmission of cultural traits affect the evolutionary stable (ES) levels of individual and social learning and the number of cultural traits expressed by an individual when cultural dynamics are at a steady-state. We explore the evolution of these phenotypes in both panmictic and structured population settings. Our results suggest that in panmictic populations, the ES level of learning and number of traits tend to be independent of the social transmission rate of cultural traits and is mainly affected by the innovation and decay rates. By contrast, in structured populations, where interactions occur between relatives, the ES level of learning and the number of traits per individual can be increased (relative to the panmictic case) and may then markedly depend on the transmission rate of cultural traits. This suggests that kin selection may be one additional solution to Rogers's paradox of nonadaptive culture.

A mathematical model for the dynamics of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt with vertical transmission and inflorescence infection

A mathematical model for Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) spread by insect is presented. The model incorporates inflorescence infection and vertical transmission from the mother corm to attached suckers, but not tool-based transmission by humans. Expressions for the basic reproduction number R0 are obtained and it is verified that disease persists, at a unique endemic level, when R0 > 1. From sensitivity analysis, inflorescence infection rate and roguing rate were the parameters with most influence on disease persistence and equilibrium level. Vertical transmission parameters had less effect on persistence threshold values. Parameters were approximately estimated from field data. The model indicates that single stem removal is a feasible approach to eradication if spread is mainly via inflorescence infection. This requires continuous surveillance and debudding such that a 50% reduction in inflorescence infection and 2–3 weeks interval of surveillance would eventually lead to full recovery of banana plantations and hence improved production.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of viruses are differentially affected by parasitoids depending on the mode of transmission by their insect vectors.

Relationships between agents in multitrophic systems are complex and very specific. Insect-transmitted plant viruses are completely dependent on the behaviour and distribution patterns of their vectors. The presence of natural enemies may directly affect aphid behaviour and spread of plant viruses, as the escape response of aphids might cause a potential risk for virus dispersal. The spatio-temporal dynamics of Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) and Cucurbit aphid-borne yellows virus (CABYV), transmitted by Aphis gossypii in a non-persistent and persistent manner, respectively, were evaluated at short and long term in the presence and absence of the aphid parasitoid, Aphidius colemani. SADIE methodology was used to study the distribution patterns of both the virus and its vector, and their degree of association. Results suggested that parasitoids promoted aphid dispersion at short term, which enhanced CMV spread, though consequences of parasitism suggest potential benefits for disease control at long term. Furthermore, A. colemani significantly limited the spread and incidence of the persistent virus CABYV at long term. The impact of aphid parasitoids on the dispersal of plant viruses with different transmission modes is discussed.