Essays in macroeconomy and dynamic term-structure models

This thesis is composed of three articles with the subjects of macroeconomics and - nance. Each article corresponds to a chapter and is done in paper format. In the rst article, which was done with Axel Simonsen, we model and estimate a small open economy for the Canadian economy in a two country General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework. We show that it is important to account for the correlation between Domestic and Foreign shocks and for the Incomplete Pass-Through. In the second chapter-paper, which was done with Hedibert Freitas Lopes, we estimate a Regime-switching Macro-Finance model for the term-structure of interest rates to study the US post-World War II (WWII) joint behavior of macro-variables and the yield-curve. We show that our model tracks well the US NBER cycles, the addition of changes of regime are important to explain the Expectation Theory of the term structure, and macro-variables have increasing importance in recessions to explain the variability of the yield curve. We also present a novel sequential Monte-Carlo algorithm to learn about the parameters and the latent states of the Economy. In the third chapter, I present a Gaussian A ne Term Structure Model (ATSM) with latent jumps in order to address two questions: (1) what are the implications of incorporating jumps in an ATSM for Asian option pricing, in the particular case of the Brazilian DI Index (IDI) option, and (2) how jumps and options a ect the bond risk-premia dynamics. I show that jump risk-premia is negative in a scenario of decreasing interest rates (my sample period) and is important to explain the level of yields, and that gaussian models without jumps and with constant intensity jumps are good to price Asian options.

New developmental stages for common marmosets (Callithrix jacchus) using mass and age variables obtained by K-means algorithm and self-organizing maps (SOM)

LEÃO, Adriano de Castro; DÓRIA NETO, Adrião Duarte; SOUSA, Maria Bernardete Cordeiro de. New developmental stages for common marmosets (Callithrix jacchus) using mass and age variables obtained by K-means algorithm and self-organizing maps (SOM). Computers in Biology and Medicine, v. 39, p. 853-859, 2009

Interior point algorithm for linear programming used in transmission network synthesis

This article presents a well-known interior point method (IPM) used to solve problems of linear programming that appear as sub-problems in the solution of the long-term transmission network expansion planning problem. The linear programming problem appears when the transportation model is used, and when there is the intention to solve the planning problem using a constructive heuristic algorithm (CHA), ora branch-and-bound algorithm. This paper shows the application of the IPM in a CHA. A good performance of the IPM was obtained, and then it can be used as tool inside algorithm, used to solve the planning problem. Illustrative tests are shown, using electrical systems known in the specialized literature. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Propagator, tree-level unitarity and effective nonrelativistic potential for three-dimensional higher-derivative gravity augmented by a gravitational Chern-Simons term

An algorithm for computing the propagator for three-dimensional quadratic gravity with a gravitational Chern-Simons term, based on an extension of the three-dimensional Barnes-Rivers operators, is proposed. A systematic study of the tree-level unitarity of this theory is developed and its agreement with Newton's law is investigated by computing the effective nonrelativistic potential. (C) 2000 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Modified Chebyshev algorithm: some applications

Two applications of the modified Chebyshev algorithm are considered. The first application deals with the generation of orthogonal polynomials associated with a weight function having singularities on or near the end points of the interval of orthogonality. The other application involves the generation of real Szego polynomials.

Specialised branch-and-bound algorithm for transmission network expansion planning

An algorithm is presented that finds the optimal plan long-term transmission for till cases studied, including relatively large and complex networks. The knowledge of optimal plans is becoming more important in the emerging competitive environment, to which the correct economic signals have to be sent to all participants. The paper presents a new specialised branch-and-bound algorithm for transmission network expansion planning. Optimality is obtained at a cost, however: that is the use of a transportation model for representing the transmission network, in this model only the Kirchhoff current law is taken into account (the second law being relaxed). The expansion problem then becomes an integer linear program (ILP) which is solved by the proposed branch-and-bound method without any further approximations. To control combinatorial explosion the branch- and bound algorithm is specialised using specific knowledge about the problem for both the selection of candidate problems and the selection of the next variable to be used for branching. Special constraints are also used to reduce the gap between the optimal integer solution (ILP program) and the solution obtained by relaxing the integrality constraints (LP program). Tests have been performed with small, medium and large networks available in the literature.

Parallel simulated annealing applied to long term transmission network expansion planning

The simulated annealing optimization technique has been successfully applied to a number of electrical engineering problems, including transmission system expansion planning. The method is general in the sense that it does not assume any particular property of the problem being solved, such as linearity or convexity. Moreover, it has the ability to provide solutions arbitrarily close to an optimum (i.e. it is asymptotically convergent) as the cooling process slows down. The drawback of the approach is the computational burden: finding optimal solutions may be extremely expensive in some cases. This paper presents a Parallel Simulated Annealing, PSA, algorithm for solving the long term transmission network expansion planning problem. A strategy that does not affect the basic convergence properties of the Sequential Simulated Annealing algorithm have been implementeded and tested. The paper investigates the conditions under which the parallel algorithm is most efficient. The parallel implementations have been tested on three example networks: a small 6-bus network, and two complex real-life networks. Excellent results are reported in the test section of the paper: in addition to reductions in computing times, the Parallel Simulated Annealing algorithm proposed in the paper has shown significant improvements in solution quality for the largest of the test networks.

An application of CHA to concurrent short-term transmission expansion & reactive power planning

In this paper a heuristic technique for solving simultaneous short-term transmission network expansion and reactive power planning problem (TEPRPP) via an AC model is presented. A constructive heuristic algorithm (CHA) aimed to obtaining a significant quality solution for such problem is employed. An interior point method (IPM) is applied to solve TEPRPP as a nonlinear programming (NLP) during the solution steps of the algorithm. For each proposed network topology, an indicator is deployed to identify the weak buses for reactive power sources placement. The objective function of NLP includes the costs of new transmission lines, real power losses as well as reactive power sources. By allocating reactive power sources at load buses, the circuit capacity may increase while the cost of new lines can be decreased. The proposed methodology is tested on Garver's system and the obtained results shows its capability and the viability of using AC model for solving such non-convex optimization problem. © 2011 IEEE.

Short-term planning of electric power distribution networks using multiobjective genetic algorithim

The high active and reactive power level demanded by the distribution systems, the growth of consuming centers, and the long lines of the distribution systems result in voltage variations in the busses compromising the quality of energy supplied. To ensure the energy quality supplied in the distribution system short-term planning, some devices and actions are used to implement an effective control of voltage, reactive power, and power factor of the network. Among these devices and actions are the voltage regulators (VRs) and capacitor banks (CBs), as well as exchanging the conductors sizes of distribution lines. This paper presents a methodology based on the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) for optimized allocation of VRs, CBs, and exchange of conductors in radial distribution systems. The Multiobjective Genetic Algorithm (MGA) is aided by an inference process developed using fuzzy logic, which applies specialized knowledge to achieve the reduction of the search space for the allocation of CBs and VRs.

An enhanced genetic algorithm to solve the static and multistage transmission network expansion planning

An enhanced genetic algorithm (EGA) is applied to solve the long-term transmission expansion planning (LTTEP) problem. The following characteristics of the proposed EGA to solve the static and multistage LTTEP problem are presented, (1) generation of an initial population using fast, efficient heuristic algorithms, (2) better implementation of the local improvement phase and (3) efficient solution of linear programming problems (LPs). Critical comparative analysis is made between the proposed genetic algorithm and traditional genetic algorithms. Results using some known systems show that the proposed EGA presented higher efficiency in solving the static and multistage LTTEP problem, solving a smaller number of linear programming problems to find the optimal solutions and thus finding a better solution to the multistage LTTEP problem. Copyright © 2012 Luis A. Gallego et al.

Multiobjective short-term planning of electric power distribution systems using NSGA-II

This paper presents a mixed integer nonlinear programming multiobjective model for short-term planning of distribution networks that considers in an integrated manner the following planning activities: allocation of capacitor banks; voltage regulators; the cable replacement of branches and feeders. The objective functions considered in the proposed model are: to minimize operational and investment costs and minimize the voltage deviations in the the network buses, subject to a set of technical and operational constraints. A multiobjective genetic algorithm based on a Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) is proposed to solve this model. The proposed mathematical model and solution methodology is validated testing a medium voltage distribution system with 135 buses. © 2013 Brazilian Society for Automatics - SBA.

Migração FFD 3D em profundidade usando aproximação de Padé complexa

Implementações dos métodos de migração diferença finita e Fourier (FFD) usam fatoração direcional para acelerar a performance e economizar custo computacional. Entretanto essa técnica introduz anisotropia numérica que podem erroneamente posicionar os refletores em mergulho ao longo das direções em que o não foi aplicado a fatoração no operador de migração. Implementamos a migração FFD 3D, sem usar a técnica do fatoração direcional, no domínio da frequência usando aproximação de Padé complexa. Essa aproximação elimina a anisotropia numérica ao preço de maior custo computacional buscando a solução do campo de onda para um sistema linear de banda larga. Experimentos numéricos, tanto no modelo homogêneo e heterogêneo, mostram que a técnica da fatoração direcional produz notáveis erros de posicionamento dos refletores em meios com forte variação lateral de velocidade. Comparamos a performance de resolução do algoritmo de FFD usando o método iterativo gradiente biconjugado estabilizado (BICGSTAB) e o multifrontal massively parallel direct solver (MUMPS). Mostrando que a aproximação de Padé complexa é um eficiente precondicionador para o BICGSTAB, reduzindo o número de iterações em relação a aproximação de Padé real. O método iterativo BICGSTAB é mais eficiente que o método direto MUMPS, quando usamos apenas um termo da expansão de Padé complexa. Para maior ângulo de abertura do operador, mais termos da série são requeridos no operador de migração, e neste caso, a performance do método direto é mais eficiente. A validação do algoritmo e as propriedades da evolução computacional foram avaliadas para a resposta ao impulso do modelo de sal SEG/EAGE.

A Modified Branch and Bound Algorithm to Solve the Transmission Expansion Planning Problem

In this paper a novel Branch and Bound (B&B) algorithm to solve the transmission expansion planning which is a non-convex mixed integer nonlinear programming problem (MINLP) is presented. Based on defining the options of the separating variables and makes a search in breadth, we call this algorithm a B&BML algorithm. The proposed algorithm is implemented in AMPL and an open source Ipopt solver is used to solve the nonlinear programming (NLP) problems of all candidates in the B&B tree. Strategies have been developed to address the problem of non-linearity and non-convexity of the search region. The proposed algorithm is applied to the problem of long-term transmission expansion planning modeled as an MINLP problem. The proposed algorithm has carried out on five commonly used test systems such as Garver 6-Bus, IEEE 24-Bus, 46-Bus South Brazilian test systems, Bolivian 57-Bus, and Colombian 93-Bus. Results show that the proposed methodology not only can find the best known solution but it also yields a large reduction between 24% to 77.6% in the number of NLP problems regarding to the size of the systems.

Numerical modelling of fluid-structure interaction with application in hemodynamics

The thesis deals with numerical algorithms for fluid-structure interaction problems with application in blood flow modelling. It starts with a short introduction on the mathematical description of incompressible viscous flow with non-Newtonian viscosity and a moving linear viscoelastic structure. The mathematical model consists of the generalized Navier-Stokes equation used for the description of fluid flow and the generalized string model for structure movement. The arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian approach is used in order to take into account moving computational domain. A part of the thesis is devoted to the discussion on the non-Newtonian behaviour of shear-thinning fluids, which is in our case blood, and derivation of two non-Newtonian models frequently used in the blood flow modelling. Further we give a brief overview on recent fluid-structure interaction schemes with discussion about the difficulties arising in numerical modelling of blood flow. Our main contribution lies in numerical and experimental study of a new loosely-coupled partitioned scheme called the kinematic splitting fluid-structure interaction algorithm. We present stability analysis for a coupled problem of non-Newtonian shear-dependent fluids in moving domains with viscoelastic boundaries. Here, we assume both, the nonlinearity in convective as well is diffusive term. We analyse the convergence of proposed numerical scheme for a simplified fluid model of the Oseen type. Moreover, we present series of experiments including numerical error analysis, comparison of hemodynamic parameters for the Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids and comparison of several physiologically relevant computational geometries in terms of wall displacement and wall shear stress. Numerical analysis and extensive experimental study for several standard geometries confirm reliability and accuracy of the proposed kinematic splitting scheme in order to approximate fluid-structure interaction problems.

The Choice of Expedient Regulatory Controls on Housing Market Using Short-Term Equilibria Model

Khutoretsky dealt with the problem of maximising a linear utility function (MUF) over the set of short-term equilibria in a housing market by reducing it to a linear programming problem, and suggested a combinatorial algorithm for this problem. Two approaches to the market adjustment were considered: the funding of housing construction and the granting of housing allowances. In both cases, locally optimal regulatory measures can be developed using the corresponding dual prices. The optimal effects (with the regulation expenditures restricted by an amount K) can be found using specialised models based on MUF: a model M1 for choice of the optimum structure of investment in housing construction, and a model M2 for optimum distribution of housing allowances. The linear integer optimisation problems corresponding to these models are initially difficult but can be solved after slight modifications of the parameters. In particular, the necessary modification of K does not exceed the maximum construction cost of one dwelling (for M1) or the maximum size of one housing allowance (for M2). The result is particularly useful since slight modification of K is not essential in practice.