What role for social investment in the new economic governance of the Eurozone? EPC Policy Brief, 10 November 2015

The EU, and the Eurozone in particular, has been going through a period of prolonged economic difficulty. While there are some signs of recovery, growth rates remain too low, only returning to the already modest growth rates of the pre-crisis period. This not only affects the creation of jobs, but also, through lower tax revenues and stagnant GDP levels, the consolidation of public finances.

Política fiscal y ciclo en América Latina: el rol de los gobiernos subnacionales

El presente trabajo analiza el rol de los gobiernos subnacionales (GSNs) en la política fiscal de los países más descentralizados de América Latina durante la última década. Esta extensión del análisis al nivel subnacional resulta de gran importancia, teniendo en cuenta que crecientemente gobiernos intermedios y locales son responsables de una parte significativa de las finanzas públicas en la región. En particular, después de revisar la evolución de las finanzas subnacionales a lo largo de los últimos diez años, el trabajo analiza el carácter cíclico de las cuentas públicas y si el comportamiento fiscal se puede caracterizar como pro o contracíclico y las causas de esto. Para ello, se analizan tanto la postura macro y la sostenibilidad de la política fiscal subnacional así como también la evolución de la composición de ingresos y gastos en los diferentes países. El análisis sugiere que, en promedio, las finanzas subnacionales han sido pro-cíclicas durante el periodo, a pesar del hecho que los impulsos fiscales subnacionales han sido relativamente pequeños, en comparación con los de los presupuestos de los gobiernos centrales.

A minimálbér költségvetési hatásai = The budgetary effects of the minimum wage

A minimálbér-emelés a munkapiacon közvetlenül hat a keresletre és a kínálatra. Közvetett hatásai azonban túlmutatnak a munkapiacon, ezért azokat egy makromodell keretei között elemezzük. A makromodellben háromféle munkafajta és tíz ágazat van; az egyes ágazatok az árképzésükben és az adó- és járulékelkerülésük szerkezetében különböznek. A minimálbér-emelés munkapiaci feszültséget generál: csökkenti a foglalkoztatást a szakképzetlenek körében. Mivel az árszint az átlagbérnél gyorsabban nő, és az aggregált foglalkoztatás is csökken, így csökken a reálfogyasztás. A vállalatok profitja és beruházása csökken, ugyanakkor a vállalati profit csökkenése már csekély mértékű adóelkerülés-növeléssel is kiegyensúlyozható. A minimálbér-emelés hatására nőnek ugyan az adóbevételek, viszont a kiadások nagyobb mértékben nőnek, így általában romlik az egyenleg. Aki tehát a minimálbér emelését követeli, annak a felelős döntés során számolnia kell ezekkel a következményekkel. _____ Raising the minimum wage on the labour market has direct effects on supply and demand. But its indirect effects extend beyond the labour market. They are analysed here with a macro model that distinguishes three types of work and ten industries, whose firms differ in their price structures and the degrees to which tax and social-insurance payments are avoided. Raising the minimum wage generates tension on the labour market and reduces employment of the unskilled. Since the price level rises faster than average pay and aggregate employment falls, so does real consumption. The firms’ profits and investment decline, but the former can be offset even by a small increase in tax avoidance. Although the rise in the minimum wage boosts tax revenues, budgetary expenditures rise more and the balance deteriorates. Advocates of a higher minimum wage need to consider these consequences if they are to reach a responsible decision.

Developing brownfields ranking models using decision analytic methods

The redevelopment of Brownfields has taken off in the 1990s, supported by federal and state incentives, and largely accomplished by local initiatives. Brownfields redevelopment has several associated benefits. These include the revitalization of inner-city neighborhoods, creation of jobs, stimulation of tax revenues, greater protection of public health and natural resources, the renewal and reuse existing civil infrastructure and Greenfields protection. While these benefits are numerous, the obstacles to Brownfields redevelopment are also very much alive. Redevelopment issues typically embrace a host of financial and legal liability concerns, technical and economic constraints, competing objectives, and uncertainties arising from inadequate site information. Because the resources for Brownfields redevelopment are usually limited, local programs will require creativity in addressing these existing obstacles in a manner that extends their limited resources for returning Brownfields to productive uses. Such programs may benefit from a structured and defensible decision framework to prioritize sites for redevelopment: one that incorporates the desired objectives, corresponding variables and uncertainties associated with Brownfields redevelopment. This thesis demonstrates the use of a decision analytic tool, Bayesian Influence Diagrams, and related decision analytic tools in developing quantitative decision models to evaluate and rank Brownfields sites on the basis of their redevelopment potential.

A responsabilidade civil extracontratual do estado na prestação de serviços públicos de saúde

This study aims to examine the Brazilian legal model for the non-contractual liability of the state in providing public health services, from the perspective of threedimensional theory of law. Up based on bibliographical and documentary research, with emphasis on legislation, doctrine and Brazilian jurisprudence, the following conclusions were reached. The right to health is typified in the Constitution as a social fundamental right, and understands the pretension to obtain from the State, the supply of goods or the provision of services that reduce the risk of disease and other health problems; or promote, protect and recover the physical and mental well-being. Once violated the fundamental right to health, provides the managed, among other fundamental guarantees, the non-contractual liability of the state. The provision of public services by the state can be made directly through the Direct or Indirect Public Administration, or by recourse to private entities. In any case, the provision of public health services is entirely subordinate to the principles of administrative law and should be fully funded by tax revenues. As the provision of public health services is part of the administrative activity of the State, there is no way to exclude the application of the guarantee of non-contractual liability of the state in the face of the damage suffered by administered as users of these services. Therefore, it applies the theory of administrative risk, even in the event of harmful and illegal state failure.

A concorrência fiscal num contexto de competitividade

Dissertação de Mestrado em Fiscalidade

Mining and Energy Boom, Dutch Disease and Informality in Colombia: a DSGE Approach

The paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, which assesses the macroeconomic and labor market effects derived from simulating a positive shock to the stochastic component of the mining-energy sector productivity. Calibrating the model for the Colombian economy, this shock generates a whole increase in formal wages and a raise in tax revenues, expanding total consumption of the household members. These facts increase non-tradable goods prices relative to tradable goods prices, then real exchange rate decreases (appreciation) and occurs a displacement of productive resources from the tradable (manufacturing) sector to the non-tradable sector, followed by an increase in formal GDP and formal job gains. This situation makes the formal sector to absorb workers from the informal sector through the non-tradable formal subsector, which causes informal GDP to go down. As a consequence, in the net consumption falls for informal workers, which leads some members of the household not to offer their labor force in the informal sector but instead they prefer to keep unemployed. Therefore, the final result on the labor market is a decrease in the number of informal workers, of which a part are in the formal sector and the rest are unemployed.

Applications of perceptual sparse representation (Spikegram) for copyright protection of audio signals

Chaque année, le piratage mondial de la musique coûte plusieurs milliards de dollars en pertes économiques, pertes d’emplois et pertes de gains des travailleurs ainsi que la perte de millions de dollars en recettes fiscales. La plupart du piratage de la musique est dû à la croissance rapide et à la facilité des technologies actuelles pour la copie, le partage, la manipulation et la distribution de données musicales [Domingo, 2015], [Siwek, 2007]. Le tatouage des signaux sonores a été proposé pour protéger les droit des auteurs et pour permettre la localisation des instants où le signal sonore a été falsifié. Dans cette thèse, nous proposons d’utiliser la représentation parcimonieuse bio-inspirée par graphe de décharges (spikegramme), pour concevoir une nouvelle méthode permettant la localisation de la falsification dans les signaux sonores. Aussi, une nouvelle méthode de protection du droit d’auteur. Finalement, une nouvelle attaque perceptuelle, en utilisant le spikegramme, pour attaquer des systèmes de tatouage sonore. Nous proposons tout d’abord une technique de localisation des falsifications (‘tampering’) des signaux sonores. Pour cela nous combinons une méthode à spectre étendu modifié (‘modified spread spectrum’, MSS) avec une représentation parcimonieuse. Nous utilisons une technique de poursuite perceptive adaptée (perceptual marching pursuit, PMP [Hossein Najaf-Zadeh, 2008]) pour générer une représentation parcimonieuse (spikegramme) du signal sonore d’entrée qui est invariante au décalage temporel [E. C. Smith, 2006] et qui prend en compte les phénomènes de masquage tels qu’ils sont observés en audition. Un code d’authentification est inséré à l’intérieur des coefficients de la représentation en spikegramme. Puis ceux-ci sont combinés aux seuils de masquage. Le signal tatoué est resynthétisé à partir des coefficients modifiés, et le signal ainsi obtenu est transmis au décodeur. Au décodeur, pour identifier un segment falsifié du signal sonore, les codes d’authentification de tous les segments intacts sont analysés. Si les codes ne peuvent être détectés correctement, on sait qu’alors le segment aura été falsifié. Nous proposons de tatouer selon le principe à spectre étendu (appelé MSS) afin d’obtenir une grande capacité en nombre de bits de tatouage introduits. Dans les situations où il y a désynchronisation entre le codeur et le décodeur, notre méthode permet quand même de détecter des pièces falsifiées. Par rapport à l’état de l’art, notre approche a le taux d’erreur le plus bas pour ce qui est de détecter les pièces falsifiées. Nous avons utilisé le test de l’opinion moyenne (‘MOS’) pour mesurer la qualité des systèmes tatoués. Nous évaluons la méthode de tatouage semi-fragile par le taux d’erreur (nombre de bits erronés divisé par tous les bits soumis) suite à plusieurs attaques. Les résultats confirment la supériorité de notre approche pour la localisation des pièces falsifiées dans les signaux sonores tout en préservant la qualité des signaux. Ensuite nous proposons une nouvelle technique pour la protection des signaux sonores. Cette technique est basée sur la représentation par spikegrammes des signaux sonores et utilise deux dictionnaires (TDA pour Two-Dictionary Approach). Le spikegramme est utilisé pour coder le signal hôte en utilisant un dictionnaire de filtres gammatones. Pour le tatouage, nous utilisons deux dictionnaires différents qui sont sélectionnés en fonction du bit d’entrée à tatouer et du contenu du signal. Notre approche trouve les gammatones appropriés (appelés noyaux de tatouage) sur la base de la valeur du bit à tatouer, et incorpore les bits de tatouage dans la phase des gammatones du tatouage. De plus, il est montré que la TDA est libre d’erreur dans le cas d’aucune situation d’attaque. Il est démontré que la décorrélation des noyaux de tatouage permet la conception d’une méthode de tatouage sonore très robuste. Les expériences ont montré la meilleure robustesse pour la méthode proposée lorsque le signal tatoué est corrompu par une compression MP3 à 32 kbits par seconde avec une charge utile de 56.5 bps par rapport à plusieurs techniques récentes. De plus nous avons étudié la robustesse du tatouage lorsque les nouveaux codec USAC (Unified Audion and Speech Coding) à 24kbps sont utilisés. La charge utile est alors comprise entre 5 et 15 bps. Finalement, nous utilisons les spikegrammes pour proposer trois nouvelles méthodes d’attaques. Nous les comparons aux méthodes récentes d’attaques telles que 32 kbps MP3 et 24 kbps USAC. Ces attaques comprennent l’attaque par PMP, l’attaque par bruit inaudible et l’attaque de remplacement parcimonieuse. Dans le cas de l’attaque par PMP, le signal de tatouage est représenté et resynthétisé avec un spikegramme. Dans le cas de l’attaque par bruit inaudible, celui-ci est généré et ajouté aux coefficients du spikegramme. Dans le cas de l’attaque de remplacement parcimonieuse, dans chaque segment du signal, les caractéristiques spectro-temporelles du signal (les décharges temporelles ;‘time spikes’) se trouvent en utilisant le spikegramme et les spikes temporelles et similaires sont remplacés par une autre. Pour comparer l’efficacité des attaques proposées, nous les comparons au décodeur du tatouage à spectre étendu. Il est démontré que l’attaque par remplacement parcimonieux réduit la corrélation normalisée du décodeur de spectre étendu avec un plus grand facteur par rapport à la situation où le décodeur de spectre étendu est attaqué par la transformation MP3 (32 kbps) et 24 kbps USAC.

How capital gains tax rates affect revenues : the historical evidence.

Shipping list no.: 88-156-P.

Tariff-tax reforms and market access

Reducing tariffs and increasing consumption taxes is a standard IMF advice to countries that want to open up their economy without hurting government finances. Indeed, theoretical analysis of such a tariff–tax reform shows an unambiguous increase in welfare and government revenues. The present paper examines whether the country that implements such a reform ends up opening up its markets to international trade, i.e. whether its market access improves. It is shown that this is not necessarily so. We also show that, comparing to the reform of only tariffs, the tariff–tax reform is a less efficient proposal to follow both as far as it concerns market access and welfare.

Who owned Earls Colne in 1798....or how to squeeze more from the Land Tax

In this important article Richard Hoyle, one of the country’s leading historians of the early modern period, introduces new perspectives on the Land Tax and its use in the analysis of local communities in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. He uses as his case study the parish of Earls Colne in Essex, on which he has already written extensively with Professor Henry French. The article begins with an overview of the tax itself, explaining its history and the procedures for the collection of revenues – including the numerous changes which took place. The sizeable problems confronting any would-be analyst of the data are clearly identified, and Hoyle observes that because of these apparently insoluble difficulties the potential of the tax returns has never been fully realised. He then considers the surviving documentation in The National Archives, providing an accessible introduction to the sources and their arrangement, and describing the particularly important question o f the redemption of the tax by payment of a lump sum. The extent of redemption (in the years around 1800-1804) is discussed. Hoyle draws attention to the potential for linking the tax returns themselves with the redemption certificates (which have never been subjected to historical analysis and thereby proposes new ways of exploiting the evidence of the taxation as a whole. The article then discusses in detail the specific case of Earls Colne, with tabulated data showing the research potential. Topics analysed include the ownership of property ranked by size of payment, and calculations whereby the amount paid may be used to determine the worth of land and the structure of individual estates. The important question of absentee owners is investigated, and there is a very valuable consideration of the potential for looking at portfolio estate ownership, whereby owners held land in varying proportions in a number of parishes. It is suggested that such studies will allow us to be more aware of the entirety of property ownership, which a focus on a single community does not permit. In the concluding paragraph it is argued that using these sources we may see the rise and fall of estates, gain new information on landownership, landholding and farm size, and even approach the challenging topic of the distribution of wealth.

Influence of individual ethical orientation on tax compliance: evidence among Ghanaian taxpayers

Even though Africa has constantly emphasized the need to reduce deficit financing through mobilization of more internal revenues, this has not been achieved. Perhaps encouraging voluntary tax compliance can improve internal revenue mobilization. This study explores the relationship between ethical orientation and tax compliance and finds that ethical persons are generally more tax compliant than unethical persons but are more influenced by considerations of tax rate and withholding positions compared to unethical persons. The findings of this study differ from Reckers et al. in a number of ways and contribute to the literature by providing a possible explanation of the cause(s) of tax non- compliance.

Tax reform under fiscal stress: a CGE analysis of the Brazilian tax reform

In spite of a general agreement over the distortion imposed by the current Brazilian tax system, attempts to reform it during the last decade have faced several restrictions to its implementation. Two of these restrictions were particular binding: a) fiscal adjustment restriction (public sector debt cannot increase), b) fiscal federalist restriction (revenues from individual states and municipalities cannot decrease). This paper focuses on a specific reform that overcomes in principle the fiscal federalist restriction. Using Auerbach and Kotlikoff (1987) model calibrated for the Brazilian economy, I analyze the short and long run macroeconomic effects of this reform subject to the fiscal adjustment restriction. Finally, I look at the redistributive effects of this reform among generations as a way to infer about public opinion’s reaction to the reform. The reform consists basically of replacing indirect taxes on corporate revenues, which I show to be equivalent to a symmetric tax on labor and capital income, by a new federal VAT. The reform presented positive macroeconomic effects both in the short and long run. Despite a substantial increase in the average VAT rate in the first years after the reform, a majority of cohorts experienced an increase in their lifetime welfare, being potentially in favour of the reform.

Fiscal Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean 2013: tax reform and renewal of the fiscal covenant

Includes bibliography

The tax regime for micro-enterprises in Cuba

Includes bibliography