Mergers, investment decisions and internal organisation

We analyse the effects of investment decisions and firms' internal organisation on the efficiency and stability of horizontal mergers. In our framework economies of scale are endogenous and there might be internal conflict within merged firms. We show that often stable mergers do not lead to more efficiency and may even lead to efficiency losses. These mergers lead to lower total welfare, suggesting that a regulator should be careful in assuming that possible efficiency gains of a merger will be effiectively realised. Moreover, the paper offers a possible explanation for merger failures.

Environmental management problems, future generations and social decisions

The decisions of many individuals and social groups, taking according to well-defined objectives, are causing serious social and environmental problems, in spite of following the dictates of economic rationality. There are many examples of serious problems for which there are not yet appropriate solutions, such as management of scarce natural resources including aquifer water or the distribution of space among incompatible uses. In order to solve these problems, the paper first characterizes the resources and goods involved from an economic perspective. Then, for each case, the paper notes that there is a serious divergence between individual and collective interests and, where possible, it designs the procedure for solving the conflict of interests. With this procedure, the real opportunities for the application of economic theory are shown, and especially the theory on collective goods and externalities. The limitations of conventional economic analysis are shown and the opportunity to correct the shortfalls is examined. Many environmental problems, such as climate change, have an impact on different generations that do not participate in present decisions. The paper shows that for these cases, the solutions suggested by economic theory are not valid. Furthermore, conventional methods of economic valuation (which usually help decision-makers) are unable to account for the existence of different generations and tend to obviate long-term impacts. The paper analyzes how economic valuation methods could account for the costs and benefits enjoyed by present and future generations. The paper studies an appropriate consideration of preferences for future consumption and the incorporation of sustainability as a requirement in social decisions, which implies not only more efficiency but also a fairer distribution between generations than the one implied by conventional economic analysis.

Electronic compliance monitoring in resistant hypertension: the basis for rational therapeutic decisions.

OBJECTIVE: Incomplete compliance is one of several possible causes of uncontrolled hypertension. Yet, non-compliance remains largely unrecognized and is falsely interpreted as treatment resistance, because it is difficult to confirm or exclude objectively. The goal of this study was to evaluate the potential benefits of electronic monitoring of drug compliance in the management of patients with resistant hypertension. METHODS: Forty-one hypertensive patients resistant to a three-drug regimen (average blood pressure 156/ 106 +/- 23/11 mmHg, mean +/- SD) were studied prospectively. They were informed that for the next 2 months, their presently prescribed drugs would be provided in electronic monitors, without any change in treatment, so as to provide the treating physician with a measure of their compliance. Thereafter, patients were offered the possibility of prolonging the monitoring of compliance for another 2 month period, during which treatment was adapted if necessary. RESULTS: Monitoring of compliance alone was associated with a significant improvement of blood pressure at 2 months (145/97 +/- 20/15 mmHg, P < 0.01). During monitoring, blood pressure was normalized (systolic < 140 mmHg or diastolic < 90 mmHg) in one-third of the patients and insufficient compliance was unmasked in another 20%. When analysed according to tertiles of compliance, patients with the lowest compliance exhibited significantly higher achieved diastolic blood pressures (P = 0.04). In 30 patients, compliance was monitored up to 4 months and drug therapy was adapted whenever necessary. In these patients, a further significant decrease in blood pressure was obtained (from 150/100 +/- 18/15 to 143/94 +/- 22/11 mmHg, P = 0.04/0.02). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that objective monitoring of compliance using electronic devices may be a useful step in the management of patients with refractory hypertension, as it enables physicians to take rational decisions based on reliable and objective data of drug compliance and hence to improve blood pressure control.

Booms, Recessions and Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look at Investment Decisions under Cyclical Uncertainty

The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework where demand shifts stochastically between three different states, each with different rates of drift and volatility. In our setting the shifts are governed by a three-state Markov switching model with constant transition probabilities. The magnitude of the link between cyclical uncertainty and investment is quantified using simulations of the model. The chief implication of the model is that recessions and financial turmoil are important catalysts for waiting. In other words, our model shows that macroeconomic risk acts as an important deterrent to investments.

Employment Protection, Flexibility and Firms’ Strategic Location Decisions under Uncertainty

We construct a model in which oligopolistic firms decide between locating in a country where employment protection implies costly output adjustments and in one without employment protection. Using a two-period three-stage game with uncertainty, we demonstrate that location is influenced by both flexibility and strategic concerns. The strategic effects under Cournot work towards domestic anchorage in the country with employment protection while those under Bertrand do not. Strategic agglomeration can occur in the inflexible country under Cournot and even under Bertrand, provided uncertainty and foreign direct investment costs are low.

Expert Information and Majority Decisions

This paper studies dichotomous majority voting in common interest committees where each member receives not only a private signal but also a public signal observed by all of them. The public signal represents, e.g. expert information presented to an entire committee and its quality is higher than that of each individual private signal. We identify two informative symmetric strategy equilibria, namely i) the mixed strategy equilibrium where each member randomizes between following the private and public signals should they disagree; and ii) the pure strategy equilibrium where they follow the public signal for certain. The former outperforms the latter. The presence of the public signal precludes the equilibrium where every member follows their own signal, which is an equilibrium in the absence of the public signal. The mixed strategy equilibrium in the presence of the public signal outperforms the sincere voting equilibrium without the public signal, but the latter may be more efficient than the pure strategy equilibrium in the presence of the public signal. We suggest that whether expert information improves committee decision making depends on equilibrium selection.

Characterizing Behavioral Decisions with Choice Datas

A number of different models with behavioral economics have a reduced form representation where potentially boundedly rational decision-makers do not necessarily internalize all the consequences of their actions on payoff relevant features (which we label as psychological states) of the choice environment. This paper studies the restrictions that such behavioral models impose on choice data and the implications they have for welfare analysis. First, we propose a welfare benchmark that is justified using standard axioms of rational choice and can be applied to a number of existing seminal behavioral economics models. Second, we show that Sen's axioms and fully characterize choice data consistent with behavioral decision-makers. Third, we show how choice data to infer information about the normative signi.cance of psychological states and establish the possibility of identifying welfare dominated choices.

Consumption Decisions When People Value Conformity

In this paper we assume that for some commodities individuals may wish to adjust their levels of consumption from their normal Marshallian levels so as to match the consumption levels of a group of other individuals, in order to signal that they conform to the consumption norms of that group. Unlike Veblen’s concept of conspicuous consumption this can mean that some individuals may reduce their consumption of the relevant commodities. We model this as a three-stage game in which individuals first decide whether or not they wish to adhere to a norm, then decide which norm they wish to adhere to, and finally decide their actual consumption. We present a number of examples of the resulting equilibria, and then discuss the potential policy implications of this model.

Inter-regional redistribution through infrastructure investment: tactical or programmatic?

In this paper we analyze the effects of both tactical and programmatic politics on the inter-regional allocation of infrastructure investment. We use a panel of data for the Spanish electoral districts during the period 1964-2004 to estimate an equation where investment depends both on economic and political variables. The results show that tactical politics do matter since, after controlling for economic traits, the districts with more ‘Political power’ still receive more investment. These districts are those where the incumbents’ Vote margin of victory/ defeat in the past election is low, where the Marginal seat price is low, where there is Partisan alignment between the executives at the central and regional layers of government, and where there are Pivotal regional parties which are influential in the formation of the central executive. However, the results also show that programmatic politics matter, since inter-regional redistribution (measured as the elasticity of investment to per capita income) is shown to increase with the arrival of the Democracy and EU Funds, with Left governments, and to decrease the higher is the correlation between a measure of ‘Political power’ and per capita income.

Fonaments i actuacions de lideratge sistèmic d'un equip de bàsquet professional i futures aplicacions

El treball de recerca “Fonaments i actuacions de lideratge sistèmic d’un equip de bàsquet professional i futures aplicacions” fa l’anàlisi d’una experiència real vinculada al món de l’esport professional. Es pretén donar a conèixer com l’estructuració del coneixement de l’entrenador pot afavorir el bon funcionament de l’equip. L’estructuració ens genera criteri i coherència a l’hora de prendre decisions.Es reconeix a l’entrenador com una persona treballadora, apassionada per la seva feina i en constant creixement individual. Valors com la humilitat, l’entusiasme, el compromís, la generositat i l’autoexigència es converteixen en adjectius fonamentals del nostre entrenador.L’estudi en l’autoconeixement en conceptes com lideratge, nivells neurològics, talent i motivació esdevenen el pal de paller en la construcció de l’equip. Un equip amb identitat pròpia, on el benefici pel bé comú (equip) està per sobre de tot, cooperatiu, compromès, i on la figura de l’entrenador intuïtiu amb coneixement influeix més per convenciment que per autoritat.El treball del dia a dia de l’entrenador i de l´equip es fonamenta en l’organització dels pilars de l’entrenador: flexibilitat, creixement de l’entrenador, equip, marges col·lectiu i individual són els motors del bon funcionament del col·lectiu. En el treball presentat, es destaca la importància de saber diferenciar, en el rendiment d’un equip, dues vessants: una més objectiva (tècnica, tàctica, estratègia i física) i l’altra on el factor humà és determinant. La investigació aprofundeix en aquest segon factor i el reconeix com a preferent. Per acabar es presenten tot un seguit d’actuacions utilitzades al llarg de la investigació amb la finalitat de generar, mantenir i millorar l’equip al mateix temps que es mostren diferents eines per tal d’optimitzar l’eficiència de les actuacions. La investigació pretén ser una experiència útil i enriquidora a l’hora d’estructurar el coneixement per tal de poder ser utilitzat en futures aplicacions.

L’impacte de les institucions internacionals sobre la Unió Europea: presa de decisions, integració i europeïtzació

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la Center for European Integration de la Freie Universität Berlin, Alemania, entre 2007 i 2009. El tema central del projecte consisteix en la descripció matemàtica de processos espai-temporals mitjançant la teoria dels Continuous-Time Random Walks. L'aportació més significativa del nostre treball en aquest camp consisteix en considerar per primera vegada la interacció entre diversos processos actuant de manera acoblada, ja que fins ara els models existents es limitaven a l'estudi de processos individuals o independents. Aquesta idea fa possible, per exemple, plantejar un sistema de transport en l'espai i a la vegada un procés de reacció (una reacció química, per exemple), i estudiar estadísticament com cada un pot alterar el comportament de l'altre. Això suposa un salt qualitatiu important en la descripció de processos de reacció-dispersió, ja que els nostres models permeten incorporar patrons de dispersió i comportaments temporals (cicles de vida) força realistes en comparació amb els models convencionals. Per tal de completar aquest treball teòric ha estat necessari també desenvolupar algunes eines numèriques (models de xarxa) per facilitar la implementació dels models. En la vessant pràctica, hem aplicat aquestes idees al cas de la dinàmica entre virus i el sistema immunològic que té lloc quan es produeix una infecció a l'organisme. Diferents estudis experimentals portats a terme els últims anys mostren com la resposta immunològica dels organismes superiors presenta una dinàmica temporal força complexa (per exemple, en el cas de la resposta programada). Per aquest motiu, les nostres tècniques matemàtiques són d'especial utilitat per a l'anàlisi d'aquests sistemes. Finalment, altres possibles aplicacions dels models, com ara l'estudi d'invasions biològiques, també han estat considerades.

Implantació d'una solució SIG per al'ajuda a la presa de decisions perl'explotació de recursos del subsòl

Aquest projecte té com a objectiu la implementació d¿un Sistema d¿InformacióGeogràfic (SIG) que permeti ajudar en la presa de decisions per l¿explotació derecursos del subsòl.

Indexes and boundaries for "quantitative significance" in statistical decisions.

Boundaries for delta, representing a "quantitatively significant" or "substantively impressive" distinction, have not been established, analogous to the boundary of alpha, usually set at 0.05, for the stochastic or probabilistic component of "statistical significance". To determine what boundaries are being used for the "quantitative" decisions, we reviewed pertinent articles in three general medical journals. For each contrast of two means, contrast of two rates, or correlation coefficient, we noted the investigators' decisions about stochastic significance, stated in P values or confidence intervals, and about quantitative significance, indicated by interpretive comments. The boundaries between impressive and unimpressive distinctions were best formed by a ratio of greater than or equal to 1.2 for the smaller to the larger mean in 546 comparisons, by a standardized increment of greater than or equal to 0.28 and odds ratio of greater than or equal to 2.2 in 392 comparisons of two rates; and by an r value of greater than or equal to 0.32 in 154 correlation coefficients. Additional boundaries were also identified for "substantially" and "highly" significant quantitative distinctions. Although the proposed boundaries should be kept flexible, indexes and boundaries for decisions about "quantitative significance" are particularly useful when a value of delta must be chosen for calculating sample size before the research is done, and when the "statistical significance" of completed research is appraised for its quantitative as well as stochastic components.