Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Managing the complexity of information flow for construction small and medium-sized enterprises (CSMEs) using system dynamics and collaborative technologies

With the increase in e-commerce and the digitisation of design data and information,the construction sector has become reliant upon IT infrastructure and systems. The design and production process is more complex, more interconnected, and reliant upon greater information mobility, with seamless exchange of data and information in real time. Construction small and medium-sized enterprises (CSMEs), in particular,the speciality contractors, can effectively utilise cost-effective collaboration-enabling technologies, such as cloud computing, to help in the effective transfer of information and data to improve productivity. The system dynamics (SD) approach offers a perspective and tools to enable a better understanding of the dynamics of complex systems. This research focuses upon system dynamics methodology as a modelling and analysis tool in order to understand and identify the key drivers in the absorption of cloud computing for CSMEs. The aim of this paper is to determine how the use of system dynamics (SD) can improve the management of information flow through collaborative technologies leading to improved productivity. The data supporting the use of system dynamics was obtained through a pilot study consisting of questionnaires and interviews from five CSMEs in the UK house-building sector.

Essays on decision sciences: exploring cognition, information processing, and complexity

This thesis provides three original contributions to the field of Decision Sciences. The first contribution explores the field of heuristics and biases. New variations of the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT--a test to measure "the ability or disposition to resist reporting the response that first comes to mind"), are provided. The original CRT (S. Frederick [2005] Journal of Economic Perspectives, v. 19:4, pp.24-42) has items in which the response is immediate--and erroneous. It is shown that by merely varying the numerical parameters of the problems, large deviations in response are found. Not only the final results are affected by the proposed variations, but so is processing fluency. It seems that numbers' magnitudes serve as a cue to activate system-2 type reasoning. The second contribution explores Managerial Algorithmics Theory (M. Moldoveanu [2009] Strategic Management Journal, v. 30, pp. 737-763); an ambitious research program that states that managers display cognitive choices with a "preference towards solving problems of low computational complexity". An empirical test of this hypothesis is conducted, with results showing that this premise is not supported. A number of problems are designed with the intent of testing the predictions from managerial algorithmics against the predictions of cognitive psychology. The results demonstrate (once again) that framing effects profoundly affect choice, and (an original insight) that managers are unable to distinguish computational complexity problem classes. The third contribution explores a new approach to a computationally complex problem in marketing: the shelf space allocation problem (M-H Yang [2001] European Journal of Operational Research, v. 131, pp.107--118). A new representation for a genetic algorithm is developed, and computational experiments demonstrate its feasibility as a practical solution method. These studies lie at the interface of psychology and economics (with bounded rationality and the heuristics and biases programme), psychology, strategy, and computational complexity, and heuristics for computationally hard problems in management science.

Biocompatibility of gutta-percha solvents using in vitro mammalian test-system

Objectives. Taking into consideration that DNA damage and cellular death play important roles during carcinogenesis, the purpose of the present study was to evaluate in vitro genotoxic or cytotoxic effects of chloroform and eucalyptol by single cell gel (comet) assay and trypan blue exclusion test, respectively.Study design. Chloroform and eucalyptol were exposed to Chinese hamster ovary cells in culture directly for 3 hours at 37 degrees C at final concentrations ranging from 1.25 to 10 mu L/mL. The negative control group was treated with vehicle control (phosphate-buffered solution), and the positive control group was treated with methyl metasulfonate (MMS, at 1 mu g/mL concentration). All data were analyzed by the Kruskal-Wallis nonparametric test followed by the Dunn test.Results. The results showed that both gutta-percha solvents were cytotoxic at concentrations of 2.5, 5, and 10 mu L/mL (P < .05). on the other hand, both solvents did not induce DNA breakage at 1.25 mu L/mL concentration.Conclusions. These results suggest that both chloroform or eucalyptol are strong cytotoxicants, but they may not be a factor that increases the level of DNA lesions in mammalian cells.

Mutagenic potential evaluation of the water of a river that receives tannery effluent using the Allium cepa test system

Several studies are being conducted to assess the toxicity and cytotoxicity of water bodies receiving industrial and domestic effluents, using the Allium cepa test. To assess the toxicity and mutagenicity of water possibly contaminated with chromium, derived from tannery activities, seasonal water samplings were performed in 2001 and 2002 at five different sites along the Sapucaizinho river, Municipality of Patrocinio Paulista, State of São Paulo, Brazil. A. cepa seeds were used as the test material and were submitted to germination in waters from the different collection sites, in Milli-Q water (negative control) and in aqueous solution of chromium (positive control). For the determination of cell division rates and mitotic irregularities, slides were prepared with root tip cells according to the standard Feulgen methodology. The results showed that the collection sites most heavily compromised by chromium emission presented low mitotic indices and a higher frequency of mitotic changes such as irregular anaphases (disorganized, multipolar, laggard), cells with chromosomal adherences, cells with micronuclei, and binucleate and/or multinucleate cells. © 2004 The Japan Mendel Society.

Induction of chromosome aberrations in the Allium cepa test system caused by the exposure of seeds to industrial effluents contaminated with azo dyes

Numerous potentially mutagenic chemicals have been studied mainly because they can cause damaging and inheritable changes in the genetic material. Several tests are commonly used for biomonitoring pollution levels and to evaluate the effects of toxic and mutagenic agents present in the natural environment. This study aimed at assessing the potential of a textile effluent contaminated with azo dyes to induce chromosomal and nuclear aberrations in Allium cepa test systems. A continuous exposure of seeds in samples of the textile effluent in different concentrations was carried out (0.3%, 3%, 10%, and 100%). Cells in interphase and undergoing division were examined to assess the presence of chromosome aberrations, nuclear changes, and micronuclei. Our results revealed a mutagenic effect of the effluent at concentrations of 10% and 100%. At lower concentrations, the effluent (3% and 0.3%) did not induce mutagenic alterations in the test organism A. cepa. These findings are of concern, since cell damage may be transmitted to subsequent generations, possibly affecting the organism as a whole, as well as the local biota exposed to the effluent discharge. If the damage results in cell death, the development of the organism may be affected, which could also lead to its death. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cellular damages in the Allium cepa test system, caused by BTEX mixture prior and after biodegradation process

Petroleum and derivatives have been considered one of the main environmental contaminants. Among petroleum derivatives, the volatile organic compounds benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene (BTEX) represent a major concern due to their toxicity and easy accumulation in groundwater. Biodegradation methods seem to be suitable tools for the clean-up of BTEX contaminants from groundwater. Genotoxic and mutagenic potential of BTEX prior and after biodegradation process was evaluated through analyses of chromosomal aberrations and MN test in meristematic and F 1 root cells using the Allium cepa test system. Seeds of A. cepa were germinated into five concentrations of BTEX, non-biodegraded and biodegraded, in ultra-pure water (negative control), in MMS 4×10 -4M (positive control) and in culture medium used in the biodegradation (blank biodegradation control). Results showed a significant frequency of both chromosomal and nuclear aberrations. The micronucleus (MN) frequency in meristematic cells was significant for most of tested samples. However, MN was not present in significant levels in the F 1 cells, suggesting that there was no permanent damage for the meristematic cell. The BTEX effects were significantly reduced in the biodegraded samples when compared to the respective non-biodegraded concentrations. Therefore, in this study, the biodegradation process showed to be a reliable and effective alternative to treat BTEX-contaminated waters. Based on our results and available data, the BTEX toxicity could also be related to a synergistic effect of its compounds. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Cogeneration design problem Computational complexity analysis and solution through an expert system

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is twofold: to analyze the computational complexity of the cogeneration design problem; to present an expert system to solve the proposed problem, comparing such an approach with the traditional searching methods available.Design/methodology/approach - The complexity of the cogeneration problem is analyzed through the transformation of the well-known knapsack problem. Both problems are formulated as decision problems and it is proven that the cogeneration problem is np-complete. Thus, several searching approaches, such as population heuristics and dynamic programming, could be used to solve the problem. Alternatively, a knowledge-based approach is proposed by presenting an expert system and its knowledge representation scheme.Findings - The expert system is executed considering two case-studies. First, a cogeneration plant should meet power, steam, chilled water and hot water demands. The expert system presented two different solutions based on high complexity thermodynamic cycles. In the second case-study the plant should meet just power and steam demands. The system presents three different solutions, and one of them was never considered before by our consultant expert.Originality/value - The expert system approach is not a "blind" method, i.e. it generates solutions based on actual engineering knowledge instead of the searching strategies from traditional methods. It means that the system is able to explain its choices, making available the design rationale for each solution. This is the main advantage of the expert system approach over the traditional search methods. On the other hand, the expert system quite likely does not provide an actual optimal solution. All it can provide is one or more acceptable solutions.

Towards a precise test for malaria diagnosis in the Brazilian Amazon: comparison among field microscopy, a rapid diagnostic test, nested PCR, and a computational expert system based on artificial neural networks

Abstract Background Accurate malaria diagnosis is mandatory for the treatment and management of severe cases. Moreover, individuals with asymptomatic malaria are not usually screened by health care facilities, which further complicates disease control efforts. The present study compared the performances of a malaria rapid diagnosis test (RDT), the thick blood smear method and nested PCR for the diagnosis of symptomatic malaria in the Brazilian Amazon. In addition, an innovative computational approach was tested for the diagnosis of asymptomatic malaria. Methods The study was divided in two parts. For the first part, passive case detection was performed in 311 individuals with malaria-related symptoms from a recently urbanized community in the Brazilian Amazon. A cross-sectional investigation compared the diagnostic performance of the RDT Optimal-IT, nested PCR and light microscopy. The second part of the study involved active case detection of asymptomatic malaria in 380 individuals from riverine communities in Rondônia, Brazil. The performances of microscopy, nested PCR and an expert computational system based on artificial neural networks (MalDANN) using epidemiological data were compared. Results Nested PCR was shown to be the gold standard for diagnosis of both symptomatic and asymptomatic malaria because it detected the major number of cases and presented the maximum specificity. Surprisingly, the RDT was superior to microscopy in the diagnosis of cases with low parasitaemia. Nevertheless, RDT could not discriminate the Plasmodium species in 12 cases of mixed infections (Plasmodium vivax + Plasmodium falciparum). Moreover, the microscopy presented low performance in the detection of asymptomatic cases (61.25% of correct diagnoses). The MalDANN system using epidemiological data was worse that the light microscopy (56% of correct diagnoses). However, when information regarding plasma levels of interleukin-10 and interferon-gamma were inputted, the MalDANN performance sensibly increased (80% correct diagnoses). Conclusions An RDT for malaria diagnosis may find a promising use in the Brazilian Amazon integrating a rational diagnostic approach. Despite the low performance of the MalDANN test using solely epidemiological data, an approach based on neural networks may be feasible in cases where simpler methods for discriminating individuals below and above threshold cytokine levels are available.

A low complexity system based on multiple weighted decision trees for indoor localization

[EN] Indoor position estimation has become an attractive research topic due to growing interest in location-aware services. Nevertheless, satisfying solutions have not been found with the considerations of both accuracy and system complexity. From the perspective of lightweight mobile devices, they are extremely important characteristics, because both the processor power and energy availability are limited. Hence, an indoor localization system with high computational complexity can cause complete battery drain within a few hours. In our research, we use a data mining technique named boosting to develop a localization system based on multiple weighted decision trees to predict the device location, since it has high accuracy and low computational complexity.

The Dynamics of Passive Torsional Fatigue Test Rigs: Innovative Applications of Universal Joints

The dynamics of a passive back-to-back test rig have been characterised, leading to a multi-coordinate approach for the analysis of arbitrary test configurations. Universal joints have been introduced into a typical pre-loaded back-to-back system in order to produce an oscillating torsional moment in a test specimen. Two different arrangements have been investigated using a frequency-based sub-structuring approach: the receptance method. A numerical model has been developed in accordance with this theory, allowing interconnection of systems with two-coordinates and closed multi-loop schemes. The model calculates the receptance functions and modal and deflected shapes of a general system. Closed form expressions of the following individual elements have been developed: a servomotor, damped continuous shaft and a universal joint. Numerical results for specific cases have been compared with published data in literature and experimental measurements undertaken in the present work. Due to the complexity of the universal joint and its oscillating dynamic effects, a more detailed analysis of this component has been developed. Two models have been presented. The first represents the joint as two inertias connected by a massless cross-piece. The second, derived by the dynamic analysis of a spherical four-link mechanism, considers the contribution of the floating element and its gyroscopic effects. An investigation into non-linear behaviour has led to a time domain model that utilises the Runge-Kutta fourth order method for resolution of the dynamic equations. It has been demonstrated that the torsional receptances of a universal joint, derived using the simple model, result in representation of the joint as an equivalent variable inertia. In order to verify the model, a test rig has been built and experimental validation undertaken. The variable inertia of a universal joint has lead to a novel application of the component as a passive device for the balancing of inertia variations in slider-crank mechanisms.

Characterization of thermoelectric commercial modules using a module test system

Il presente lavoro di tesi è stato svolto presso la DTU, Technical University of Denmark, nel Department of Energy Conversion and Storage, Riso Campus. Lo scopo del periodo di soggiorno estero è stato quello di caratterizzare appropriati moduli termoelettrici forniti da aziende del settore, utilizzando un opportuno apparato di caratterizzazione. Quest’ultimo è noto come “module test system” e, nello specifico, è stato fornito dalla PANCO GmbH, azienda anch’essa attiva nel campo delle tecnologie termoelettriche. Partendo da uno studio teorico dei fenomeni fisici interessati (effetto Seebeck per la produzione di potenza termoelettrica), si è cercato in seguito di analizzare le principali caratteristiche, ed elementi, del “module test system”. Successivamente a questa prima fase di analisi, sono stati condotti esperimenti che, con l’aiuto di modelli computazionali implementati attraverso il software Comsol Multiphysics, hanno permesso di studiare l’affidabilità del sistema di caratterizzazione. Infine, una volta acquisite le basi necessarie ad una corretta comprensione dei fenomeni fisici e delle caratteristiche relative alla strumentazione, sono stati analizzati moduli termoelettrici di tipo commerciale. In particolare, sono stati estrapolati dati quali correnti, tensioni, gradienti di temperatura, che hanno permesso di ricavare flussi termici, efficienze, e potenze che caratterizzano il modulo in questione durante le condizioni di funzionamento. I risultati ottenuti sono stati successivamente comparati con dati forniti dal produttore, presenti sul catalogo.

Pulsed plasma thruster ignition system: investigation, test design and results

Fra i sistemi di propulsione elettrica per satelliti, il Pulsed Plasma Thruster, PPT, è quello dal design più semplice. È anche il primo sistema di propulsione elettrica utilizzato in un satellite artificiale, ossia ZOND-2 lanciato nel 1964 dall’Unione Sovietica. Tuttavia, dopo circa 50 anni di ricerca, la comprensione teorica e sperimentale di questo dispositivo rimane limitata. Questo elaborato di tesi magistrale indaga sul sottosistema di accensione del PPT, cercando di mettere in luce alcuni aspetti legati al lifetime della spark plug, SP. Tale SP, o candela, è l’attuatore del sottosistema di accensione. Questa produce una scintilla sulla sua superficie, la quale permette la realizzazione della scarica elettrica principale fra i due elettrodi del motore. Questa scarica crea una sottile parete di plasma che, per mezzo della forza elettromagnetica di Lorentz, produce la spinta del PPT. Poiché la SP si trova all’interno del catodo del motore e si affaccia nella camera di scarica, questa soffre di fenomeni di corrosione e di deposizione carbonacea proveniente dal propellente. Questi fenomeni possono limitare notevolmente il lifetime della SP. I parametri connessi alla vita operativa della SP sono numerosi. In questo elaborato si è analizzata la possibilità di utilizzare una elettronica di accensione della candela alternativa alla classica soluzione che utilizza un trasformatore. Il sottosistema di accensione classico e quello nuovo sono stati realizzati e testati, per metterne in luce le differenze ed i possibili vantaggi/svantaggi.