Modelling calving front dynamics using a level-set method: application to Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, links model results in MATLAB format

Calving is a major mechanism of ice discharge of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and a change in calving front position affects the entire stress regime of marine terminating glaciers. The representation of calving front dynamics in a 2-D or 3-D ice sheet model remains non-trivial. Here, we present the theoretical and technical framework for a level-set method, an implicit boundary tracking scheme, which we implement into the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). This scheme allows us to study the dynamic response of a drainage basin to user-defined calving rates. We apply the method to Jakobshavn Isbræ, a major marine terminating outlet glacier of the West Greenland Ice Sheet. The model robustly reproduces the high sensitivity of the glacier to calving, and we find that enhanced calving triggers significant acceleration of the ice stream. Upstream acceleration is sustained through a combination of mechanisms. However, both lateral stress and ice influx stabilize the ice stream. This study provides new insights into the ongoing changes occurring at Jakobshavn Isbræ and emphasizes that the incorporation of moving boundaries and dynamic lateral effects, not captured in flow-line models, is key for realistic model projections of sea level rise on centennial timescales.

Model results in NetCDF format of North African vegetation-precipitation in early and mid-Holocene climate simulated by CCSM3-DGVM//

The present study analyses the sign, strength, and working mechanism of the vegetation-precipitation feedback over North Africa in middle (6 ka BP) and early Holocene (9 ka BP) simulations using the comprehensive coupled climate-vegetation model CCSM3-DGVM (Community Climate System Model version 3 and a dynamic global vegetation model). The coupled model simulates enhanced summer rainfall and a northward migration of the West African monsoon trough along with an expansion of the vegetation cover for the early and middle Holocene compared to the pre-industrial period. It is shown that dynamic vegetation enhances the orbitally triggered summer precipitation anomaly by approximately 20% in the Sahara-Sahel region (10-25° N, 20° W-30° E) in both the early and mid-Holocene experiments compared to their fixed-vegetation counterparts. The primary vegetation-rainfall feedback identified here operates through surface latent heat flux anomalies by canopy evaporation and transpiration and their effect on the mid-tropospheric African easterly jet, whereas the effects of vegetation changes on surface albedo and local water recycling play a negligible role. Even though CCSM3-DGVM simulates a positive vegetation-precipitation feedback in the North African region, this feedback is not strong enough to produce multiple equilibrium climate-ecosystem states on a regional scale.

Regional ocean model for the Mediterranean, links to model files

A regional ocean general circulation model of the Mediterranean is used to study the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum. The atmospheric forcing for these simulations has been derived from simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model, which in turn was forced with surface conditions from a coarse resolution earth system model. The model is successful in reproducing the general patterns of reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies with the strongest cooling in summer in the northwestern Mediterranean and weak cooling in the Levantine, although the model underestimates the extent of the summer cooling in the western Mediterranean. However, there is a strong vertical gradient associated with this pattern of summer cooling, which makes the comparison with reconstructions complicated. The exchange with the Atlantic is decreased to roughly one half of its present value, which can be explained by the shallower Strait of Gibraltar as a consequence of lower global sea level. This reduced exchange causes a strong increase of salinity in the Mediterranean in spite of reduced net evaporation.

High-resolution dynamical downscaling products for the North Slope of Alaska and surrounding areas, links to model result files

Climatic changes are most pronounced in northern high latitude regions. Yet, there is a paucity of observational data, both spatially and temporally, such that regional-scale dynamics are not fully captured, limiting our ability to make reliable projections. In this study, a group of dynamical downscaling products were created for the period 1950 to 2100 to better understand climate change and its impacts on hydrology, permafrost, and ecosystems at a resolution suitable for northern Alaska. An ERA-interim reanalysis dataset and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) served as the forcing mechanisms in this dynamical downscaling framework, and the Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model, embedded with an optimization for the Arctic (Polar WRF), served as the Regional Climate Model (RCM). This downscaled output consists of multiple climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, dew point temperature, and surface air pressure) for a 10 km grid spacing at three-hour intervals. The modeling products were evaluated and calibrated using a bias-correction approach. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) produced reasonable climatic variables as a result, yielding a more closely correlated temperature field than precipitation field when long-term monthly climatology was compared with its forcing and observational data. A linear scaling method then further corrected the bias, based on ERA-interim monthly climatology, and bias-corrected ERA-WRF fields were applied as a reference for calibration of both the historical and the projected CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) products. Biases, such as, a cold temperature bias during summer and a warm temperature bias during winter as well as a wet bias for annual precipitation that CESM holds over northern Alaska persisted in CESM-WRF runs. The linear scaling of CESM-WRF eventually produced high-resolution downscaling products for the Alaskan North Slope for hydrological and ecological research, together with the calibrated ERA-WRF run, and its capability extends far beyond that. Other climatic research has been proposed, including exploration of historical and projected climatic extreme events and their possible connections to low-frequency sea-atmospheric oscillations, as well as near-surface permafrost degradation and ice regime shifts of lakes. These dynamically downscaled, bias corrected climatic datasets provide improved spatial and temporal resolution data necessary for ongoing modeling efforts in northern Alaska focused on reconstructing and projecting hydrologic changes, ecosystem processes and responses, and permafrost thermal regimes. The dynamical downscaling methods presented in this study can also be used to create more suitable model input datasets for other sub-regions of the Arctic.

Petroleum System Analysis: Middle Magdalena Valley Basin, Colombia, South America

The purpose of this study is to create a petroleum system model and to assess whether or not the La Luna Formation has potential for unconventional exploration and production in the Middle Magdalena Valley Basin (MMVB), Colombia. Today, the Magdalena River valley is an intermontane valley located between the Central and Eastern Cordillera of Colombia. The underlying basin, however, represents a major regional sedimentary basin that received deposits from the Triassic through the Cenozoic. In recent years Colombia has been of great exploration interest because of its potentially vast hydrocarbon resources, existing petroleum infrastructure, and skilled workforce. Since the early 1900s when the MMVB began producing, it has led to discoveries of 1.9 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and 2.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas (Willatt et al., 2012). Colombia is already the third largest producer of oil in South America, and there is good potential for additional unconventional exploration and production in the Cretaceous source rocks (Willatt et al., 2012). Garcia Gonzalez et al. (2009) estimate the potential remaining hydrocarbons in the La Luna Formation in the MMVB to be between 1.15 and 10.33 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE; P90 and P10 respectively), with 2.02 BBOE cumulative production to date. Throughout the 1900s and early 2000s, Cenozoic continental and transitional clastic reservoirs were the primary exploration interest in the MMVB (Dickey, 1992). The Cretaceous source rocks, such as the La Luna Formation, are now the target for unconventional exploration and production. In the MMVB, the La Luna formation is characterized by relatively high total organic carbon (TOC) values, moderate maturity, and adequate thickness and depth (Veigal and Dzelalijal, 2014). The La Luna Formation is composed of Cenomanian-Santonian aged shales, marls, and limestones (Veigal and Dzelalijal, 2014). In addition to the in-situ hydrocarbons, the fractured limestones in the La Luna formation act as secondary reservoirs for light oil from other formations (Veigal and Dzelalijal, 2014). Thus the system can be considered more of a hybrid play, rather than a pure unconventional play. The Cretaceous source rocks of the MMVB exhibit excellent potential for unconventional exploration and production. Due to the complex structural nature of the MMVB, an understanding of the distribution of rocks and variations in rock qualities is essential for reducing risk in this play.

Reconstructing Past Climate by Using Proxy Data and a Linear Climate Model

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The cost of uniqueness in groundwater model calibration

Calibration of a groundwater model requires that hydraulic properties be estimated throughout a model domain. This generally constitutes an underdetermined inverse problem, for which a Solution can only be found when some kind of regularization device is included in the inversion process. Inclusion of regularization in the calibration process can be implicit, for example through the use of zones of constant parameter value, or explicit, for example through solution of a constrained minimization problem in which parameters are made to respect preferred values, or preferred relationships, to the degree necessary for a unique solution to be obtained. The cost of uniqueness is this: no matter which regularization methodology is employed, the inevitable consequence of its use is a loss of detail in the calibrated field. This, ill turn, can lead to erroneous predictions made by a model that is ostensibly well calibrated. Information made available as a by-product of the regularized inversion process allows the reasons for this loss of detail to be better understood. In particular, it is easily demonstrated that the estimated value for an hydraulic property at any point within a model domain is, in fact, a weighted average of the true hydraulic property over a much larger area. This averaging process causes loss of resolution in the estimated field. Where hydraulic conductivity is the hydraulic property being estimated, high averaging weights exist in areas that are strategically disposed with respect to measurement wells, while other areas may contribute very little to the estimated hydraulic conductivity at any point within the model domain, this possibly making the detection of hydraulic conductivity anomalies in these latter areas almost impossible. A study of the post-calibration parameter field covariance matrix allows further insights into the loss of system detail incurred through the calibration process to be gained. A comparison of pre- and post-calibration parameter covariance matrices shows that the latter often possess a much smaller spectral bandwidth than the former. It is also demonstrated that, as all inevitable consequence of the fact that a calibrated model cannot replicate every detail of the true system, model-to-measurement residuals can show a high degree of spatial correlation, a fact which must be taken into account when assessing these residuals either qualitatively, or quantitatively in the exploration of model predictive uncertainty. These principles are demonstrated using a synthetic case in which spatial parameter definition is based oil pilot points, and calibration is Implemented using both zones of piecewise constancy and constrained minimization regularization. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bifurcation analysis of a dynamic power system with SVC devices

Bifurcation analysis is a very useful tool for power system stability assessment. In this paper, detailed investigation of power system bifurcation behaviour is presented. One and two parameter bifurcation analysis are conducted on a 3-bus power system. We also examined the impact of FACTS devices on power system stability through Hopf bifurcation analysis by taking static Var compensator (SVC) as an example. A simplified first-order model of the SVC device is included in the 3-bus sample system. Real and reactive powers are used as bifurcation parameter in the analysis to compare the system oscillatory properties with and without SVC. The simulation results indicate that the linearized system model with SVC enlarge the voltage stability boundary by moving Hopf bifurcation point to higher level of loading conditions. The installation of SVC increases the dynamic stability range of the system, however complicates the Hopf bifurcation behavior of the system

The development and stability analysis of a nonlinear growth model for microorganisms

A nonlinear dynamic model of microbial growth is established based on the theories of the diffusion response of thermodynamics and the chemotactic response of biology. Except for the two traditional variables, i.e. the density of bacteria and the concentration of attractant, the pH value, a crucial influencing factor to the microbial growth, is also considered in this model. The pH effect on the microbial growth is taken as a Gaussian function G0e-(f- fc)2/G1, where G0, G1 and fc are constants, f represents the pH value and fc represents the critical pH value that best fits for microbial growth. To study the effects of the reproduction rate of the bacteria and the pH value on the stability of the system, three parameters a, G0 and G1 are studied in detail, where a denotes the reproduction rate of the bacteria, G0 denotes the impacting intensity of the pH value to microbial growth and G1 denotes the bacterial adaptability to the pH value. When the effect of the pH value of the solution which microorganisms live in is ignored in the governing equations of the model, the microbial system is more stable with larger a. When the effect of the bacterial chemotaxis is ignored, the microbial system is more stable with the larger G1 and more unstable with the larger G0 for f0 > fc. However, the stability of the microbial system is almost unaffected by the variation G0 and G1 and it is always stable for f0 < fc under the assumed conditions in this paper. In the whole system model, it is more unstable with larger G1 and more stable with larger G0 for f0 < fc. The system is more stable with larger G1 and more unstable with larger G0 for f0 > fc. However, the system is more unstable with larger a for f0 < fc and the stability of the system is almost unaffected by a for f0 > fc. The results obtained in this study provide a biophysical insight into the understanding of the growth and stability behavior of microorganisms.

Viable Model of the Enterprise – a Cybernetic Approach for Implementing the Information Technologies in Management

The purpose of the current paper is to present the developed methodology of viable model based enterprise management, which is needed for modern enterprises to survive and growth in the information age century. The approach is based on Beer’s viable system model and uses it as a basis of the information technology implementation and development. The enterprise is viewed as a cybernetic system which functioning is controlled from the same rules as for every living system.

Physical dynamic simulation of shipboard power system components in a distributed computational environment

Shipboard power systems have different characteristics than the utility power systems. In the Shipboard power system it is crucial that the systems and equipment work at their peak performance levels. One of the most demanding aspects for simulations of the Shipboard Power Systems is to connect the device under test to a real-time simulated dynamic equivalent and in an environment with actual hardware in the Loop (HIL). The real time simulations can be achieved by using multi-distributed modeling concept, in which the global system model is distributed over several processors through a communication link. The advantage of this approach is that it permits the gradual change from pure simulation to actual application. In order to perform system studies in such an environment physical phase variable models of different components of the shipboard power system were developed using operational parameters obtained from finite element (FE) analysis. These models were developed for two types of studies low and high frequency studies. Low frequency studies are used to examine the shipboard power systems behavior under load switching, and faults. High-frequency studies were used to predict abnormal conditions due to overvoltage, and components harmonic behavior. Different experiments were conducted to validate the developed models. The Simulation and experiment results show excellent agreement. The shipboard power systems components behavior under internal faults was investigated using FE analysis. This developed technique is very curial in the Shipboard power systems faults detection due to the lack of comprehensive fault test databases. A wavelet based methodology for feature extraction of the shipboard power systems current signals was developed for harmonic and fault diagnosis studies. This modeling methodology can be utilized to evaluate and predicate the NPS components future behavior in the design stage which will reduce the development cycles, cut overall cost, prevent failures, and test each subsystem exhaustively before integrating it into the system.

A software tool that generates symbolic model verifier (SMV) input language from a predicate transition net

The purpose of this research was to apply model checking by using a symbolic model checker on Predicate Transition Nets (PrT Nets). A PrT Net is a formal model of information flow which allows system properties to be modeled and analyzed. The aim of this thesis was to use the modeling and analysis power of PrT nets to provide a mechanism for the system model to be verified. Symbolic Model Verifier (SMV) was the model checker chosen in this thesis, and in order to verify the PrT net model of a system, it was translated to SMV input language. A software tool was implemented which translates the PrT Net into SMV language, hence enabling the process of model checking. The system includes two parts: the PrT net editor where the representation of a system can be edited, and the translator which converts the PrT net into an SMV program.

Physical dynamic simulation of shipboard power system components in a distributed computational environment

Shipboard power systems have different characteristics than the utility power systems. In the Shipboard power system it is crucial that the systems and equipment work at their peak performance levels. One of the most demanding aspects for simulations of the Shipboard Power Systems is to connect the device under test to a real-time simulated dynamic equivalent and in an environment with actual hardware in the Loop (HIL). The real time simulations can be achieved by using multi-distributed modeling concept, in which the global system model is distributed over several processors through a communication link. The advantage of this approach is that it permits the gradual change from pure simulation to actual application. In order to perform system studies in such an environment physical phase variable models of different components of the shipboard power system were developed using operational parameters obtained from finite element (FE) analysis. These models were developed for two types of studies low and high frequency studies. Low frequency studies are used to examine the shipboard power systems behavior under load switching, and faults. High-frequency studies were used to predict abnormal conditions due to overvoltage, and components harmonic behavior. Different experiments were conducted to validate the developed models. The Simulation and experiment results show excellent agreement. The shipboard power systems components behavior under internal faults was investigated using FE analysis. This developed technique is very curial in the Shipboard power systems faults detection due to the lack of comprehensive fault test databases. A wavelet based methodology for feature extraction of the shipboard power systems current signals was developed for harmonic and fault diagnosis studies. This modeling methodology can be utilized to evaluate and predicate the NPS components future behavior in the design stage which will reduce the development cycles, cut overall cost, prevent failures, and test each subsystem exhaustively before integrating it into the system.

Design and construction of a two dimensional duct equipped with a wave generator and a variable coastal slope and an ocean wave energy conversion system (OWC)

The aims of this thesis were evaluation the type of wave channel, wave current, and effect of some parameters on them and identification and comparison between types of wave maker in laboratory situations. In this study, designing and making of two dimension channels (flume) and wave maker for experiment son the marine buoy, marine building and energy conversion systems were also investigated. In current research, the physical relation between pump and pumpage and the designing of current making in flume were evaluated. The related calculation for steel building, channels beside glasses and also equations of wave maker plate movement, power of motor and absorb wave(co astal slope) were calculated. In continue of this study, the servo motor was designed and applied for moving of wave maker’s plate. One Ball Screw Leaner was used for having better movement mechanisms of equipment and convert of the around movement to linear movement. The Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) was also used for control of wave maker system. The studies were explained type of ocean energies and energy conversion systems. In another part of this research, the systems of energy resistance in special way of Oscillating Water Column (OWC) were explained and one sample model was designed and applied in hydrolic channel at the Sheikh Bahaii building in Azad University, Science and Research Branch. The dimensions of designed flume was considered at 16 1.98 0. 57 m which had ability to provide regular waves as well as irregular waves with little changing on the control system. The ability of making waves was evaluated in our designed channel and the results were showed that all of the calculation in designed flume was correct. The mean of error between our results and theory calculation was conducted 7%, which was showed the well result in this situation. With evaluating of designed OWC model and considering of changes in the some part of system, one bigger sample of this model can be used for designing the energy conversion system model. The obtained results showed that the best form for chamber in exit position of system, were zero degree (0) in angle for moving below part, forty and five (45) degree in front wall of system and the moving forward of front wall keep in two times of height of wave.

SOVLENT REACTIVITY AND INTERFACE EVOLUTION AT MODEL ELECTRODES FOR ENERGY APPLICATIONS

The Li-ion rechargeable battery (LIB) is widely used as an energy storage device, but has significant limitations in battery cycle life and safety. During initial charging, decomposition of the ethylene carbonate (EC)-based electrolytes of the LIB leads to the formation of a passivating layer on the anode known as the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI). The formation of an SEI has great impact on the cycle life and safety of LIB, yet mechanistic aspects of SEI formation are not fully understood. In this dissertation, two surface science model systems have been created under ultra-high vacuum (UHV) to probe the very initial stage of SEI formation at the model carbon anode surfaces of LIB. The first model system, Model System I, is an lithium-carbonate electrolyte/graphite C(0001) system. I have developed a temperature programmed desorption/temperature programmed reaction spectroscopy (TPD/TPRS) instrument as part of my dissertation to study Model System I in quantitative detail. The binding strengths and film growth mechanisms of key electrolyte molecules on model carbon anode surfaces with varying extents of lithiation were measured by TPD. TPRS was further used to track the gases evolved from different reduction products in the early-stage SEI formation. The branching ratio of multiple reaction pathways was quantified for the first time and determined to be 70.% organolithium products vs. 30% inorganic lithium product. The obtained branching ratio provides important information on the distribution of lithium salts that form at the very onset of SEI formation. One of the key reduction products formed from EC in early-stage SEI formation is lithium ethylene dicarbonate (LEDC). Despite intensive studies, the LEDC structure in either the bulk or thin-film (SEI) form is unknown. To enable structural study, pure LEDC was synthesized and subject to synchrotron X-ray diffraction measurements (bulk material) and STM measurements (deposited films). To enable studies of LEDC thin films, Model System II, a lithium ethylene dicarbonate (LEDC)-dimethylformamide (DMF)/Ag(111) system was created by a solution microaerosol deposition technique. Produced films were then imaged by ultra-high vacuum scanning tunneling microscopy (UHV-STM). As a control, the dimethylformamide (DMF)-Ag(111) system was first prepared and its complex 2D phase behavior was mapped out as a function of coverage. The evolution of three distinct monolayer phases of DMF was observed with increasing surface pressure — a 2D gas phase, an ordered DMF phase, and an ordered Ag(DMF)2 complex phase. The addition of LEDC to this mixture, seeded the nucleation of the ordered DMF islands at lower surface pressures (DMF coverages), and was interpreted through nucleation theory. A structural model of the nucleation seed was proposed, and the implication of ionic SEI products, such as LEDC, in early-stage SEI formation was discussed.