Developments of the total entropy utility function for the dual purpose of model discrimination and parameter estimation in Bayesian design

The total entropy utility function is considered for the dual purpose of Bayesian design for model discrimination and parameter estimation. A sequential design setting is proposed where it is shown how to efficiently estimate the total entropy utility for a wide variety of data types. Utility estimation relies on forming particle approximations to a number of intractable integrals which is afforded by the use of the sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian inference. A number of motivating examples are considered for demonstrating the performance of total entropy in comparison to utilities for model discrimination and parameter estimation. The results suggest that the total entropy utility selects designs which are efficient under both experimental goals with little compromise in achieving either goal. As such, the total entropy utility is advocated as a general utility for Bayesian design in the presence of model uncertainty.

Complex Symbolic Sequence Encodings for Predictive Monitoring of Business Processes

This paper addresses the problem of predicting the outcome of an ongoing case of a business process based on event logs. In this setting, the outcome of a case may refer for example to the achievement of a performance objective or the fulfillment of a compliance rule upon completion of the case. Given a log consisting of traces of completed cases, given a trace of an ongoing case, and given two or more possible out- comes (e.g., a positive and a negative outcome), the paper addresses the problem of determining the most likely outcome for the case in question. Previous approaches to this problem are largely based on simple symbolic sequence classification, meaning that they extract features from traces seen as sequences of event labels, and use these features to construct a classifier for runtime prediction. In doing so, these approaches ignore the data payload associated to each event. This paper approaches the problem from a different angle by treating traces as complex symbolic sequences, that is, sequences of events each carrying a data payload. In this context, the paper outlines different feature encodings of complex symbolic sequences and compares their predictive accuracy on real-life business process event logs.

Limited utility of exercise stress testing in the evaluation of suspected acute coronary syndrome in patients aged less than 40 years with intermediate risk features

Objective National guidelines for management of intermediate risk patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, in whom AMI has been excluded, advocate provocative testing to final risk stratify these patients into low risk (negative testing) or high risk (positive testing suggestive of unstable angina). Adults less than 40 years have a low pretest probability of acute coronary syndrome. The utility of exercise stress testing in young adults with chest pain suspected of acute coronary syndrome who have National Heart Foundation intermediate risk features was evaluated Methods A retrospective analysis of exercise stress testing performed on patients less than 40 years was evaluated. Patients were enrolled on a chest pain pathway and had negative serial ECGs and cardiac biomarkers before exercise stress testing to rule-out acute coronary syndrome. Chart review was completed on patients with positive stress tests. Results The 3987 patients with suspected intermediate risk acute coronary syndrome underwent exercise stress testing. One thousand and twenty-seven (25.8%) were aged less than 40 years (age 33.3 ± 4.8 years). Four of these 1027 patients had a positive exercise stress test (0.4% incidence of positive exercise stress testing). Of those, three patients had subsequent non-invasive functional testing that yielded a negative result. One patient declined further investigations. Assuming this was a true positive exercise stress test, the incidence of true positive exercise stress testing would have been 0.097% (95% confidence interval: 0.079–0.115%) (one of 1027 patients). Conclusions Routine exercise stress testing has limited value in the risk stratification of adults less than 40 years with suspected intermediate risk of acute coronary syndrome

Utility of temporal artery biopsy samples for genome-wide analysis of giant cell arteritis

Giant Cell Arteritis (GCA) is the most common vasculitis affecting the elderly. Archived formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) temporal artery biopsy (TAB) specimens potentially represent a valuable resource for large-scale genetic analysis of this disease. FFPE TAB samples were obtained from 12 patients with GCA. Extracted TAB DNA was assessed by real time PCR before restoration using the Illumina HD FFPE Restore Kit. Paired FFPE-blood samples were genotyped on the Illumina OmniExpress FFPE microarray. The FFPE samples that passed stringent quality control measures had a mean genotyping success of >97%. When compared with their matching peripheral blood DNA, the mean discordant heterozygote and homozygote single nucleotide polymorphisms calls were 0.0028 and 0.0003, respectively, which is within the accepted tolerance of reproducibility. This work demonstrates that it is possible to successfully obtain high-quality microarray-based genotypes FFPE TAB samples and that this data is similar to that obtained from peripheral blood.

Terra Incognita: A symbolic mythical journey

This practice-led project is implemented in the context of rites of passage based on significant events in formative transitions of Self. It employs an intuitive methodology to examine and explore the 'Child archetype', mythos, symbolic imagination and self-narrative, through the manifestation of a visual symbolic language. The contexts, methods and processes enable empowerment, heightened awareness of personal and collective relationships, meaningful discovery and development of innovative ideas and forms. The implications for this project highlight the importance of intuition in creativity and innovation. Creative practice is a vehicle for personal and collective interconnectedness. I have discovered self-empowerment, meaningful learning and innovative forms of personal and collective communication as a way of enabling transition of a significant life event.

Utility of magnetic resonance imaging-based finite element analysis for the biomechanical stress analysis of hemorrhagic and non-hemorrhagic carotid plaques

Background: Biomechanical stress analysis has been used for plaque vulnerability assessment. The presence of plaque hemorrhage (PH) is a feature of plaque vulnerability and is associated with thromboembolic ischemic events. The purpose of the present study was to use finite element analysis (FEA) to compare the stress profiles of hemorrhagic and non-hemorrhagic profiles. Methods and Results: Forty-five consecutive patients who had suffered a cerebrovascular ischemic event with an underlying carotid artery disease underwent high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of their symptomatic carotid artery in a 1.5-T MRI system. Axial images were manually segmented for various plaque components and used for FEA. Maximum critical stress (M-CstressSL) for each slice was determined. Within a plaque, the maximum M-CstressSL for each slice of a plaque was selected to represent the maximum critical stress of that plaque (M-CstressPL) and used to compare hemorrhagic and non-hemorrhagic plaques. A total of 62% of plaques had hemorrhage. It was observed that plaques with hemorrhage had significantly higher stress (M-CstressPL) than plaques without PH (median [interquartile range]: 315 kPa [247-434] vs. 200 kPa [171-282], P=0.003). Conclusions: Hemorrhagic plaques have higher biomechanical stresses than non-hemorrhagic plaques. MRI-based FEA seems to have the potential to assess plaque vulnerability.

Utility of USPIO-enhanced MR imaging to identify inflammation and the fibrous cap: A comparison of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals

Background and purpose: Inflammation is a risk factor the vulnerable atheromatous plaque. This can be detected in vivo on high-resolution magnetic resonance (MR) imaging using a contrast agent, Sinerem™, an ultra-small super-paramagnetic iron oxide (USPIO). The aim of this study was to explore whether there is a difference in the degree of MR defined inflammation using USPIO particles, between symptomatic and asymptomatic carotid plaques. We report further on its T1 effect of enhancing the fibrous cap, which may allow dual contrast resolution of carotid atheroma. Methods: Twenty patients with carotid stenosis (10 symptomatic and 10 asymptomatic) underwent multi-sequence MR imaging before and 36 h post-USPIO infusion. Images were manually segmented into quadrants and signal change in each quadrant was calculated following USPIO administration. Mean signal change across all quadrants were compared between the two groups. Results: Symptomatic patients had significantly more quadrants with a signal drop than asymptomatic individuals (75% vs. 32%, p < 0.01). Asymptomatic plaques had more quadrants with signal enhancement than symptomatic ones (68% vs. 25%, p < 0.05); their mean signal change was also higher (46% vs. 15%, p < 0.01) and this appeared to correlate with a thicker fibrous cap on histology. Conclusions: Symptomatic patients had more quadrants with signal drop suggesting larger inflammatory infiltrates. Asymptomatic individuals showed significantly more enhancement possibly suggesting greater stability as a result of thicker fibrous caps. However, some asymptomatic plaques also had focal areas of signal drop, suggesting an occult macrophage burden. If validated by larger studies, USPIO may be a useful dual contrast agent able to improve risk stratification of patients with carotid stenosis and inform selection for intervention.

Correlation of carotid atheromatous plaque inflammation with biomechanical stress: Utility of USPIO enhanced MR imaging and finite element analysis

Objective: The aim of this study was to explore whether there is a relationship between the degree of MR-defined inflammation using ultra small super-paramagnetic iron oxide (USPIO) particles, and biomechanical stress using finite element analysis (FEA) techniques, in carotid atheromatous plaques. Methods and Results: 18 patients with angiographically proven carotid stenoses underwent multi-sequence MR imaging before and 36 h after USPIO infusion. T2 * weighted images were manually segmented into quadrants and the signal change in each quadrant normalised to adjacent muscle was calculated after USPIO administration. Plaque geometry was obtained from the rest of the multi-sequence dataset and used within a FEA model to predict maximal stress concentration within each slice. Subsequently, a new statistical model was developed to explicitly investigate the form of the relationship between biomechanical stress and signal change. The Spearman's rank correlation coefficient for USPIO enhanced signal change and maximal biomechanical stress was -0.60 (p = 0.009). Conclusions: There is an association between biomechanical stress and USPIO enhanced MR-defined inflammation within carotid atheroma, both known risk factors for plaque vulnerability. This underlines the complex interaction between physiological processes and biomechanical mechanisms in the development of carotid atheroma. However, this is preliminary data that will need validation in a larger cohort of patients.

Complex symbolic sequence clustering and multiple classifiers for predictive process monitoring

This paper addresses the following predictive business process monitoring problem: Given the execution trace of an ongoing case,and given a set of traces of historical (completed) cases, predict the most likely outcome of the ongoing case. In this context, a trace refers to a sequence of events with corresponding payloads, where a payload consists of a set of attribute-value pairs. Meanwhile, an outcome refers to a label associated to completed cases, like, for example, a label indicating that a given case completed “on time” (with respect to a given desired duration) or “late”, or a label indicating that a given case led to a customer complaint or not. The paper tackles this problem via a two-phased approach. In the first phase, prefixes of historical cases are encoded using complex symbolic sequences and clustered. In the second phase, a classifier is built for each of the clusters. To predict the outcome of an ongoing case at runtime given its (uncompleted) trace, we select the closest cluster(s) to the trace in question and apply the respective classifier(s), taking into account the Euclidean distance of the trace from the center of the clusters. We consider two families of clustering algorithms – hierarchical clustering and k-medoids – and use random forests for classification. The approach was evaluated on four real-life datasets.

Soliciting additional concerns in the primary care consultation and the utility of a brief communication intervention to aid solicitation: A qualitative study

Objective To investigate the perspectives of general practitioners (GPs) on the practice of soliciting additional concerns (ACs) and the acceptability and utility of two brief interventions (prompts) designed to aid the solicitation. Methods Eighteen GPs participating in a feasibility randomised controlled trial were interviewed. Interviews were semi-structured and audio-recorded. Data were analysed using a Framework Approach. Results Participants perceived eliciting ACs as important for: reducing the need for multiple visits, identifying serious illness early, and increasing patient and GP satisfaction. GPs found the prompts easy to use and some continued their use after the study had ended to aid time management. Others noted similarities between the intervention and their usual practice. Nevertheless, soliciting ACs in every consultation was not unanimously supported. Conclusion The prompts were acceptable to GPs within a trial context, but there was disagreement as to whether ACs should be solicited routinely. Some GPs considered the intervention to aid their prioritisation efficiency within consultations. Practice implications Some GPs will find prompts which encourage ACs to be solicited early in the consultation enable them to better organise priorities and manage time-limited consultations more effectively.

Structural Veneer Based Composite Products from Hardwood Thinning - Part II: Testing of Hollow Utility Poles

Australian utility pole network is aging and reaching its end of life, with 70% of the 5 million poles currently in-service nationally installed within the 20 years following the end of World War II. The estimated investment required for the replacement or remedial maintenance of the aging 3.5 millions poles is as high as 1.75 billion dollars. Additionally, an estimated 21,700 high-durability new poles are required each year, representing further investment of 13.5 million dollars per year. Yet, agreements which progressively phase out logging of native forests around Australia have been signed, giving the industry about 25 years to make the transition from Crown native forests to plantations and private forests. As utility poles were traditionally cut from native forest hardwood species, finding solutions to source new poles currently presents a challenge. This paper presents tests on Veneer Based Composite hardwood hollow utility poles manufactured from Gympie messmate (Eucalyptus cloeziana) plantation thinning. Small diameter poles of nominal 115 mm internal diameter and 15 mm wall-thickness were manufactured in two half-poles butt jointed together, using 9 veneers per halfpole. The poles were tested in bending and shear, and experimental test results are presented. The mechanical performance of the hollow poles is discussed and compared to hardwood poles cut from mature trees and of similar size. Future research and different options for improving the current concept are proposed in order to provide a more reliable and cost effective technical solution to the current shortage of utility poles. © RILEM 2014.

Veneer based composite hollow utility poles manufactured from hardwood plantation thinned trees

Australia’s utility pole network is aging and approaching its end of life. It is estimated that 70% of the 5 million poles currently in-service nationally were installed within the 20 years following the end of World War II and require replacement or remedial maintenance. Additionally, an estimated 21,700 high-durability new poles are required each year to support the expansion of the energy network. Utility poles were traditionally cut from native forest hardwood species. However, due to agreements which progressively phase out logging of native forests around Australia, finding new sources for utility poles presents a challenge. This paper presents the development of veneer based composite hardwood hollow utility poles manufactured from mid-rotation Gympie messmate (Eucalyptus cloeziana) plantation thinned trees (also referred to as “thinning”), as an alternative to solid hardwood poles. The incentives behind the project and benefits of the proposed products are introduced in the paper. Small diameter poles, of nominal 115 mm internal diameter and 15 mm wall-thickness, were manufactured in two half-poles butt jointed together, using 9 hardwood veneers per half-pole. The poles were tested in bending and shear, and experimental test results are presented. The mechanical performance of the hollow poles is discussed and compared to hardwood poles sourced from mature trees and of similar size. Additionally, the required dimensions of the proposed hollow pole to replace actual solid poles are estimated. Results show that the proposed product represents a viable technical solution to the current shortage of utility poles. Future research and different options for improving the current concept are proposed in order to provide a more reliable and cost effective product for structural and architectural applications in general.

The utility of near infrared spectroscopy for age estimation of deepwater sharks

Reliable age information is vital for effective fisheries management, yet age determinations are absent for many deepwater sharks as they cannot be aged using traditional methods of growth bands counts. An alternative approach to ageing using near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was investigated using dorsal fin spines, vertebrae and fin clips of three species of deepwater sharks. Ages were successfully estimated for the two dogfish, Squalus megalops and Squalus montalbani, and NIRS spectra were correlated with body size in the catshark, Asymbolus pallidus. Correlations between estimated-ages of the dogfish dorsal fin spines and their NIRS spectra were good, with S. megalops R2=0.82 and S. montalbani R2=0.73. NIRS spectra from S. megalops vertebrae and fin clips that have no visible growth bands were correlated with estimated-ages, with R2=0.89 and 0.76, respectively. NIRS has the capacity to non-lethally estimate ages from fin spines and fin clips, and thus could significantly reduce the numbers of sharks that need to be lethally sampled for ageing studies. The detection of ageing materials by NIRS in poorly calcified deepwater shark vertebrae could potentially enable ageing of this group of sharks that are vulnerable to exploitation.

Sustainable housing development through integrated strata utility and transport infrastructure

A comprehensive study was conducted on potential systems of integrated building utilities and transport power solutions that can simultaneously contain rising electricity, hot water and personal transport costs for apartment residents. The research developed the Commuter Energy and Building Utilities System (CEBUS) and quantified the economic, social and environmental benefits of incorporating such a system in future apartment developments. A decision support tool was produced to assist the exploration of the CEBUS design variants. A set of implementation guidelines for CEBUS was also developed for the property development industry.